怀揣着万亿元薪酬方案，特斯拉（NASDAQ：TSLA）首席执行官埃隆·马斯克要为公司销量加把劲了。 1月2日，特斯拉公布的数据显示，该公司2025年全球交付汽车163.6万辆，同比下降约8.6%。 值得一提的是，比亚迪（002594）2025年全球纯电动汽车销量达226万辆，同比增长28%。这意味着， 特斯拉纯电动汽车年销量首次被中国汽车制造商比亚迪超越。 2025年前11个月，特斯拉在中国市场的挂牌销量达53.19万辆，较上年同期57.42万辆下降7.37%，低于 其2025年全球销量降幅。中国依然是其全球最大单一市场。 近期，特斯拉为马斯克制定了薪酬激励方案，该方案最高价值可达1万亿美元，但完成目标难度极高。 其中，特斯拉未来10年累计交付2000万辆，平均每年交付量要达到200万辆。 汽车观察员肖红向长江商报记者表示，随着越来越多的车企进入电动汽车市场，特斯拉面临来自全球各 地的竞争压力。 全球交付量降8.6% 1月2日，特斯拉公布的数据显示，该公司2025年全球交付汽车163.6万辆，同比下降约8.6%。 就在前一天，1月1日，比亚迪表示，2025年其全球纯电动汽车销量达226万辆，同比增长28%。其 ...

特斯拉股价周一上涨3.56%，至475.31美元，创年内新高，市值达1.58万亿美元。 此举正值特斯拉在自动驾驶领域不断发展之际，其CEO埃隆·马斯克证实了在奥斯汀测试无人驾驶 机器人出租车的消息。尽管特斯拉的电动汽车交付量创下了纪录，但分析师们质疑这些数字与特斯拉股 价的相关性，这表明投资者的关注点发生了转变。 当天，凯茜·伍德的方舟投资管理公司通过旗下基金ARKK和ARKW总计出售了124867股特斯拉股 票，价值约5935万美元。 这一观点与马斯克长期以来的立场一致，即特斯拉的长期价值将由技术驱动，尤其是全自动驾驶软 件和"擎天柱"人形机器人。马斯克此前曾表示，特斯拉未来价值的80%可能来自擎天柱，而FSD也被认 为是主要的增长动力。 一些投资者还预测，特斯拉汽车业务的动力将减弱，预计2025年交付量将下降约7%，2026年的交 付量将在持平至增长5%之间，远低于整体市场预期。 巴克莱的一位分析师表示，特斯拉未来的估值似乎与电动汽车的交付数量关系不大，他认为第四季 度的交付可能疲软，但这对特斯拉的股价可能无关紧要。这位分析师维持对特斯拉的"持股观望"评级， 并将其目标价上调至350美元，指出特斯拉越来越 ...

Core Insights - SpaceX is currently valued at $800 billion, doubling its valuation from $400 billion just seven months ago, and is on track to become the highest-valued private company in the U.S. [1] - The company is considering an IPO in 2026, marking a potential significant milestone in its nearly 25-year history [1]. - ARK Investment Management predicts that SpaceX's enterprise value could reach approximately $2.5 trillion by 2030, with a compound annual return rate of about 38% starting from a valuation of $350 billion in December 2024 [1][3]. Valuation Predictions - The ARK report outlines three scenarios for SpaceX's valuation by 2030: a base case of $2.5 trillion, a bull case of $3.1 trillion (75th percentile), and a bear case of $1.7 trillion (25th percentile) [4][3]. - The predictions are based on a Monte Carlo simulation that incorporates 17 key variables affecting SpaceX's potential outcomes [5][42]. Business Model and Cash Flow - The report emphasizes a "flywheel" logic where cash flow from the Starlink business supports the iteration of Starship technology, ultimately laying the groundwork for Mars colonization [2][12]. - SpaceX's revenue from Starlink is projected to be around $300 billion annually by 2035, capturing approximately 15% of global communication spending [19]. Technological Assumptions - The valuation heavily relies on the successful rapid reusability of the Starship and the performance of the Optimus humanoid robot [2][42]. - Satellite performance is a critical input variable in the model, influencing revenue generation and capital expenditure [23][24]. Market Dynamics - The ARK model suggests that as Starship reusability improves, the marginal cost of satellite deployment will decrease, enhancing the economic viability of SpaceX's operations [31][28]. - The completion of the Starlink constellation is expected to shift SpaceX's focus and resources towards Mars development [36]. Long-term Vision - SpaceX aims to facilitate multi-planetary living, particularly through the development of infrastructure on Mars, supported by technologies from its other ventures [34]. - The model anticipates that the contribution of Mars-related activities to SpaceX's enterprise value will grow over time, although initial cash flows from these activities may be speculative [36].

Group 1 - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing significant positive developments, with leading companies actively engaging in technology research and commercial implementation [1][2] - Tesla's CEO Musk shared a video of the "Optimus" humanoid robot running, indicating advancements in the robot's capabilities [1] - The launch of the full-size, high-efficiency humanoid robot T800 by Zhongqing Robotics marks the beginning of its sales process [1] Group 2 - Domestic and international companies are increasingly entering the humanoid robot market, with notable advancements in commercialization by firms like Tesla and Figure AI [2] - The emergence of AI companies such as DeepSeek is facilitating the development of general-purpose humanoid robot models, leading to a diverse and competitive industry landscape [2] - The humanoid robot sector is entering industrial applications, indicating a strong trend towards commercial viability [2]

Core Viewpoint - SpaceX's valuation has surged to $800 billion due to market optimism, with ARK's model predicting a potential valuation of $2.5 trillion by 2030, driven by the "flywheel effect" of Starlink cash flow supporting Starship iterations for Mars colonization [1][3][4]. Valuation Dynamics - SpaceX's current valuation of $800 billion represents a doubling from approximately $400 billion just seven months prior, surpassing OpenAI to become the highest-valued private company in the U.S. [3] - The management is considering an IPO in 2026, marking a potential path for the nearly 25-year-old company [3]. ARK's Long-term Predictions - ARK Investment Management's report suggests that if SpaceX's valuation starts from $350 billion in December 2024, investors could see a compound annual return of about 38% [3][5]. - The Monte Carlo simulation indicates a bullish scenario with a valuation of approximately $3.1 trillion and a bearish scenario at about $1.7 trillion by 2030 [3][6]. Model Logic and Flywheel Effect - The ARK model operates on a self-reinforcing "flywheel" logic, where cash generated from Starlink is reinvested into Starship technology, ultimately supporting Mars colonization efforts [13][4]. - The model's predictions are highly dependent on the rapid reusability of Starship and the success of other key technologies [4][42]. Market Potential and Revenue Generation - The potential market size for Starlink is projected to generate around $300 billion in annual revenue by 2035, capturing about 15% of global communication spending [21]. - The average bandwidth is expected to reach approximately 130 million Gbps at maturity, with a breakeven point of about $0.20 per Mbps, significantly lower than current U.S. averages [19]. Satellite Performance and Cost Structure - Satellite performance is a critical input variable in the model, with the marginal cost structure indicating that as Starship reusability improves, satellite costs will increasingly dominate total costs [24][26]. - The transition from V1 to V2 Mini Optimized satellites shows adherence to Wright's Law, suggesting significant performance improvements [27]. Mars Colonization Plans - SpaceX's long-term goal includes establishing a human presence on Mars, with plans to utilize Optimus robots and other technologies for infrastructure development [35]. - The model anticipates that the value attributed to Mars-related activities will grow over time, although cash flows from these initiatives are expected to be more speculative compared to Starlink [35][39]. Risks and Limitations - The model incorporates 17 key independent variables, acknowledging that unexpected events, such as leadership changes or natural disasters, could significantly impact outcomes [42]. - Execution risks in the space industry, particularly regarding Starship's reusability and the timely development of infrastructure on Mars, are highlighted as critical factors influencing valuation [42].

来源：一观大势 作者：方奕/郭胤含/李健/苏徽 核心观点：在较长时间横盘震荡后，中国股市将进入跨年攻势。12-2月是中国政策、流动性、基本面向 上共振的窗口期，指数有望迈上新台阶，看好科技/券商/消费。 摘要 ▶重振旗鼓：中国股市将向上迈出新台阶。11月24日上证指数跌至3800点悲观之际，国泰海通策略作出 重要研判"关键位置：进入击球区，步出先手棋"，表态看好科技/券商/部分消费。近期，中国股市开始 企稳反弹，12月5日券商/保险拉升，激活市场人气。对后市，我们认为在较长时间的横盘整理后，中国 股市将进入跨年攻势，指数将向上迈出新台阶：1）经济工作会议临近，2026年是十五五开局之年，经 济日报金观平12月7日指出"宏观政策不能松劲，要以更加积极有为的实招硬招，持续助力经济发展"， 我们预计广义赤字有望进一步扩张，经济政策有望更加积极。2）考虑近期走弱的房地产销售面积，若 美联储12月降息，当下人民币稳定升值也为2026年初中国宽松货币提供有利条件。3）国家金融监管总 局下调保险公司权益入市风险因子；继2014/2019/2024年后，证监会再度表态，适度拓宽资本空间与杠 杆上限；改革提振中国市场风险偏好。 ...

扬子晚报网12月5日讯(记者范晓林)今天是周五，昨天高乐股份（002348）4连板，太阳电缆（002300）、安记食品（603696）3连板，睿能科技 （603933）6天5板，航天机电（600151）5天3板。市场探底回升，创业板指涨超1%，早盘一度跌超0.5%。沪深两市成交额1.55万亿，较上一个交易日缩 量1210亿。板块方面，机器人、商业航天等板块涨幅居前。马斯克在社交平台X转发特斯拉擎天柱(Optimus)团队发布的一段"擎天柱"人形机器人跑步的短 视频。受此利好提振下，机器人概念全天表现强势，恒而达（300946）、海昌新材（300885）、睿能科技等多股涨停。 A.利好精选 | 新股名称 昂瑞微 | 申购日期 2025-12-05 | | --- | --- | | 申购代码 787790 | 上市地点 上海证券交易所 | | 发行价格 83.06 | 所属板块 模拟芯片设计 | | ■ 厨房日 | 中签公布 2025-12-09 | 3连板太阳电缆：第三大股东象屿集团及其一致行动人拟合计减持不超3%股份 太阳电缆(002300.SZ)公告称，持股5%以上股东象屿集团及其一致行动人博创15号计划 ...

人形机器人板块日K线图 本版制图 张大伟 有机构认为，春季躁动具备在12月中下旬启动的基础，当前应关注12月经济数据、美联储官员表态、12 月各类科技产业大会以及机构调仓行为。参照历史经验，成长和周期是高胜率的板块风格，前者关注航 空装备、AI链，后者关注化工品及能源金属。从中期视角来看，2026年盈利周期上行驱动中国资产重 估的逻辑不变 消息面上，12月3日特斯拉发布"擎天柱"人形机器人跑步的视频，称其刚刚在实验室刷新了"个人"纪 录。当天美股盘面上，机器人相关概念股集体大涨，Nauticus Robotics单日上涨115%，iRobot Corp上涨 73%，特斯拉股价上涨4.08%。 中国机器人厂商也迎来订单加速落地。11月27日，绿源集团与越疆科技达成战略合作，将共同推动5000 台机器狗应用于智慧门店升级计划，探索具身智能在智慧门店、智能工厂等场景的应用。 瑞银证券最新发布的"Humanoid RobotInsight"报告认为，2026年人形机器人量产的积极信号正在逐步显 现。特斯拉、越疆等人形机器人企业的产能规划逐步落地，中国厂商订单持续增长，欧洲投资者兴趣明 显升温。具身智能订单落地与应用场 ...

机器人概念盘中强势拉升，截至午间收盘，三协电机涨超20%，海昌新材、华伍股份20%涨停，恒而达 涨逾18%，江苏雷利涨超10%；睿能科技涨停，近6日斩获5个涨停板。此外，四川金顶、龙溪股份、骏 亚科技、日发精机亦涨停。 消息面上，特朗普政府准备加速推进机器人技术的发展。据Politico报道，三位消息人士透露，美国商 务部长卢特尼克近期一直在与机器人行业的多位CEO会面。 此外，12月3日，特斯拉Optimus团队发布了"擎天柱"人形机器人跑步视频，并配文称刚刚在实验室刷新 了"个人"纪录。此外，在11月6日晚的股东大会上，特斯拉CEO马斯克阐述了加快人形机器人"擎天 柱"生产速度的愿景，明年其生产线就将建成投产。 中信证券指出，9月以来，特斯拉发布宏伟蓝图第四篇章、为马斯克提供史上最大型激励计划、马斯克 增持特斯拉股票等。马斯克在机器人业务上的精力加大，机器人的硬件定型与量产节点临近，Optimus V3将在2026年一季度发布并在2026年年底前开启量产。国产供应链在特斯拉机器人中扮演重要角色， 解决大规模制造与降本难题。随着特斯拉机器人进入量产阶段，国内企业有望陆续开始受益。 美国商务部发言人回应称：" ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market sentiment indicates a lack of liquidity, with funds gradually withdrawing, leading to a bearish outlook for the A-share market [1][2]. Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance on December 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.06%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index rose by 0.40% and 1.01%, respectively [13]. - The total trading volume across the three markets was 15,617.68 billion, a decrease of 1,219.25 billion from the previous day, with over 3,800 stocks declining [13]. Sector Performance - The robotics sector continued to perform strongly, with stocks like Hengda and Daying Electronics hitting historical highs, driven by news of increased focus on robotics from the U.S. government [13]. - The commercial aerospace sector remained active, with Longzhou Co. achieving two consecutive trading limits [14]. - The pharmaceutical sector showed some strength, particularly in flu-related stocks, which rebounded during the trading session [14]. Fund Flow Analysis - Major funds experienced a net outflow of 6.816 billion, with the basic chemical industry seeing the largest outflow [27]. - The top sectors for net inflow included machinery, national defense, home appliances, electronics, and automobiles, while the basic chemical, food and beverage, banking, agriculture, and non-ferrous metals sectors faced significant outflows [27]. Notable Company Developments - Cambricon plans to triple its AI chip production by 2026, aiming to capture market share in China following NVIDIA's exit, with a projected delivery of 500,000 AI accelerators [7]. - Cambricon's revenue surged 14 times in the third quarter, with ByteDance accounting for over 50% of its current orders [7]. Economic Indicators - Concerns over long-term bond sales have arisen, with fixed income funds being net sellers in recent weeks, influenced by potential investigations into bank bond investments by the central bank [9]. - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates in December, which could lead to a tightening of global liquidity and increased volatility in major asset classes [10]. Industry Trends - The shipping industry has seen a significant increase in freight rates for oil transportation, with daily revenues rising by 467%, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions [17]. - Predictions indicate that TV panel prices may stabilize in December 2025, with potential price increases for non-strategic customers as manufacturers adjust pricing strategies [22].