证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 招商研究一周回顾 （0704-0711） 招商研发宏观组与策略组重要观点回顾摘要： 宏观组。 1、对宏观政策而言，反内卷政策与传统的财政、货币政策还是有较大区别，也就 是说下半年的宏观政策手段可能是一些非传统的措施。但是只要能看到价格形势 的边际转变，同样也会对资产价格造成影响。那么大致的方向应该是：权益产品 的基本面将逐步改善，价格水平将从市场收益率的下行动力转变为上行压力。短 期内，顺周期商品价格可能延续底部回升的走势。 2、特朗普签署"大而美"法案。特朗普对政府及共和党控制力稳固并加强，其地位 在 6 月以来的一系列"成功"后得到巩固。司法方面，特朗普获得美国最高法院对 总统行政权力的支持。一方面特朗普为后续施政扫除了障碍，将更坚定其当前路 线，整体政策倾向不会发生大的变化（即核心关注国内移民、经济议题，对外方 面关注关税贸易议题、大国关系再平衡）；另一方面，需要警惕特朗普在政治上 的自信进一步加强，或有可能导致其在关税贸易等对外议题上不太容易妥协。 策略组。 1、从中期的趋势来看，"反内卷"是推动指数走牛的关键力量，"反内卷"驱动上市 公司削减资产开支，出清过剩产能，经 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the computer industry, recommending stocks such as Baidu, Huawei, and others, with an "Outperform" rating for the recommended targets [5][10][6]. Core Insights - Baidu and Huawei's open-source initiatives are expected to significantly promote the adoption of foundation models, lowering the barriers for R&D and application in AI technology [11][12]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation has approved 7 national standards aimed at standardizing AI and digital services, which will enhance competitiveness and market opportunities for companies in the computer industry [12][13]. - The China Internet Association has initiated standards for algorithm management, which will facilitate the governance of recommendation algorithms and promote compliance within internet platform enterprises [13]. Summary by Sections Open-Source Initiatives - On June 30, Baidu and Huawei announced the open-sourcing of various models, including Baidu's Wenxin 4.5 series and Huawei's Pangu models, which will lower the R&D and application thresholds for AI technologies [11][10]. National Standards - The report highlights the approval of 7 national standards by the State Administration for Market Regulation, which will support the digital economy and enhance the interconnectivity of the computer industry [12][10]. Algorithm Management Standards - The initiation of algorithm management standards by the China Internet Association is expected to advance platform algorithm governance, focusing on compliance and security measures [13][10].

【产业互联网周报是由钛媒体TMTpost发布的特色产品，将整合本周最重要的企业级服务、云计算、 大数据领域的前沿趋势、重磅政策及行研报告。】 华为诺亚方舟实验室7月5日下午发布最新声明，表示盘古Pro MoE开源模型是基于昇腾硬件平台开发、 训练的基础大模型，并非基于其他厂商模型增量训练而来。 盘古团队表示，"盘古Pro MoE开源模型部分基础组件的代码实现参考了业界开源实践，涉及其他开源 大模型的部分开源代码。我们严格遵循开源许可证的要求，在开源代码文件中清晰标注开源代码的版权 声明。这不仅是开源社区的通行做法，也符合业界倡导的开源协作精神。" 不过就在7月6日凌晨，一篇发表于Github的文章《盘古之殇：华为诺亚盘古大模型研发历程的心酸与黑 暗》，再度引起轩然大波。该文是一位自称华为盘古大模型团队的员工所写。文中揭露内部某团队为伪 造技术突破，多次通过"套壳"续训阿里千问、Deepseek等竞品模型欺上瞒下。 自曝文中称："经过内部的分析，他们实际上是使用Qwen 1.5 110B续训而来，通过加层，扩增ffn维度， 添加盘古pi论文的一些机制得来，凑够了大概135B的参数。"并表示，"听同事说他们为了洗 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2025 年 07 月 07 日 行业及产业 电子 强于大市 投资要点： 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《电子行业周报：AI Glasses 市场持续爆发— —2025/06/23-2025/06/27》2025-07-01 《电子行业周报：Switch 2 开启新一轮成长周 期——2025/06/16-2025/06/20》 2025-06-24 《电子行业周报： 低轨卫星市场正处于持续爆 发周期——2025/06/09-2015/06/13》 2025-06-16 《电子行业周报：EDA 限制升级，国产替代加 速——2025/06/02-2025/06/06》 2025-06-10 《Wolfspeed 陷入困境，国产 SiC 企业迎来发 展机遇——20250604 爱建电子行业周报》 2025-06-04 许亮 S0820525010002 0755-83562506 xuliang@ajzq.com 移动电源 3C 认证加速品牌龙头发展 ——电子行业周报（2025/6/30-7/4） 风险提示：1）国际 ...

证券研究报告：机械设备|深度报告 发布时间：2025-07-07 行业投资评级 | 收盘点位 | | 1643.73 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 1803.12 | | 52 | 周最低 | 1122.98 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） -7% -1% 5% 11% 17% 23% 29% 35% 41% 47% 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-02 2025-04 2025-07 机械设备 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:刘卓 SAC 登记编号:S1340522110001 Email:liuzhuo@cnpsec.com 分析师:傅昌鑫 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070004 Email:fuchangxin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 强于大市|维持 行业基本情况 《关注特斯拉 Optimus Gen3 发布》 - 2025.06.30 智元 G1、A2 等核心产品启动一定规模量产 ⚫ 本周行情回顾 本周（2025.06.30-07.04）人形机器人指数下跌-1.81%，跌幅超 过同期科创 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 07 月 06 日 海外推出股票 RWA，国内无人物流产业深化 计算机周观察 20250706 TMT 及中小盘/计算机 稳定币&RWA 海内外同步推进，无人物流产业化进展不断，AI 大模型、应用发 展持续推进。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 284 | 5.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3465.4 | 3.9 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3049.4 | 3.7 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 5.8 16.1 64.0 相对表现 2.8 10.6 48.4 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Jul/24 Oct/24 Feb/25 Jun/25 (%) 计算机 沪深300 1、《AI 及无人化聚焦落地，重视稳 定币及 RWA 金融创新——计算机行 业 2025 年 中 期 投 资 策 略 》 2025-06-30 2、《香港虚拟资产服务相关牌照梳 理——计算机周观察 20250629》 2025-06-29 ...

苹果或弃自研模型转投OpenAI和Anthropic；Meta成立超级智能实验室。 华为盘古团队否认开源模型抄袭 7月5日，华为诺亚方舟实验室发布声明称，盘古Pro MoE开源模型是基于昇腾硬件平台开发、训练的基 础大模型，并非基于其他厂商模型增量训练而来。对此，盘古团队在声明中称，盘古Pro MoE开源模型 部分基础组件的代码实现参考了业界开源实践，涉及其他开源大模型的部分开源代码。盘古团队严格遵 循开源许可证的要求，在开源代码文件中清晰标注开源代码的版权声明。 点评：华为此前6月30日宣布开源盘古7B稠密和72B混合专家模型，随后，一项发布于GitHub的研究引 发业界热议，该研究的作者认为，华为推出的盘古大模型与阿里巴巴发布的通义千问Qwen-2.5 14B模型 在参数结构上存在"惊人一致"，两个模型在注意力参数分布上的平均相关性高达0.927，远超其他模型 对比的正常范围。 英伟达市值逼近4万亿美元 当地时间7月3日盘中，英伟达市值一度突破3.92万亿美元，短暂超过苹果在2024年年底时创下的3.915万 亿美元全球最高市值，并逼近4万亿美元。截至7月3日收盘，英伟达股价上涨1.33%，股价159.3 ...

Core Insights - The large model industry is shifting from a "parameter competition" to an "ecosystem co-construction" approach, with major companies like Huawei and Baidu announcing open-source initiatives for their models [2][4] - Open-sourcing models is seen as a strategic move to build ecosystems rather than just offering free resources, as companies aim to establish a comprehensive model system that enhances their bargaining power [2][5] - The recent wave of open-source models is driven by multiple factors, including international trends and the success of models like DeepSeek, which have pressured closed-source companies to adapt [4][5] Group 1: Open Source Initiatives - Huawei has open-sourced its Pangu Pro MoE model, which has 720 billion parameters and is optimized for specific platforms, while Baidu has released its Wenxin model series, marking a significant shift in their strategies [3][4] - Other companies like Alibaba and Tencent have also joined the open-source movement, creating a more robust ecosystem and responding to the competitive landscape [4][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The open-source trend is expected to lower technical barriers, allowing new players to enter the market and intensifying competition among existing firms [7][8] - Companies that can quickly adapt to the open-source trend and enhance their technical capabilities will likely emerge as leaders, while those lagging behind may face obsolescence [7][8] Group 3: Long-term Strategy - Open-sourcing is viewed as a long-term strategic decision that sacrifices some immediate profits for greater control over the ecosystem [6][8] - The future winners in the open-source race will be those with strong foundational capabilities and open ecosystem strategies, where model capabilities become entry points rather than barriers [8]

Group 1: Key Trends in AI Models - The article highlights various AI models such as Grok 4 by xAI, DeepSeek-R2 by DeepSeek, and GLM-4.1V-Thinking by Zhizhu, showcasing advancements in AI technology [2] - Notable models include Omni-Infer by Huawei, PEVA world model by LeCun team, and Pangu open-source model by Huawei, indicating a competitive landscape in AI model development [2] - Major companies like Google and Tencent are also developing models such as Gemma 3n and Hunyuan-A13B, respectively, reflecting the ongoing innovation in the AI sector [2] Group 2: AI Applications - The article lists various AI applications, including AI game engines by Google and NVIDIA, and Gemini for Education by Google, demonstrating the diverse use cases of AI technology [2][3] - Other applications mentioned are MAI-DxO by Microsoft and AI customization services by OpenAI, indicating a trend towards personalized AI solutions [3] - The introduction of AI-powered tools like GitHub Copilot Chat and document summarization upgrades by Tencent Yuanbao highlights the growing integration of AI in everyday tasks [3] Group 3: Industry Insights and Opinions - The article discusses the impact of AI on employment as noted by the World Economic Forum, suggesting significant changes in job markets due to AI advancements [3] - Perspectives on AI writing influence from The New Yorker and strategic paths from Amazon provide insights into how AI is reshaping industries [3] - The mention of AI economic experiments by Anthropic indicates a focus on understanding the economic implications of AI technologies [3] Group 4: Events and Developments - Key events include the poaching of Claude by Anysphere and new AI crawler regulations by Cloudflare, reflecting the competitive dynamics in the AI industry [4] - The establishment of a superintelligence lab by Meta signifies a push towards advanced AI research and development [4] - The article also notes the talent acquisition efforts by Meta targeting OpenAI, highlighting the ongoing race for top AI talent [4]

大家好，我是佩妮。 1）搜索是未来 AI 最大，也最重要的场景和入口。 不知道有多少朋友和我一样，习惯性上网第一步，都会在浏览器中自然地敲出 "baidu" 的网址。（比如测一测网连上了没 hhh） 百度花了25年的时间，在中文用户心智中建立了 "百度"等于"搜索" ，日均搜索次数达到数十亿次。 搜索几乎是 AI 时代确定性的最重要场景，目前在一级市场最热门的 AI项目，也有很多是在 搜索，浏览器 和 通用 Agent 领域； 在AI时代来临之前，传统搜索引擎的商业模式高度依赖在线营销服务，即 广告收入 。 营收占比一半以上，妥妥的 现金牛 业务。我看了下 Google 的财报，搜索贡献收入占比和百度也差不多。 搜索其实是这一波新的AI 技术变革的发源地，因其技术储备接近。 准确理解用户的意图，从海量数据和语料中查询，检索，判断，推荐，持续优化，这本来就是搜索做的事情， 所以百度也是国内最早喊出"All in AI"的公司。 AI 领域的变化是我长期关注的主题，昨天是百度 2025 AI Day ，发布了不少有意思的新产品。 尤其是主营业务搜索，号称是 10 年以来最大改版， 自己革自己的命 的那种。 众所周 ...