| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,076.00 | +49↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1988709 | -45800↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -16404 | +32887↑ RB5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -37 | +8↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 33097 | -1200↓ HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) | 160 | -8↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,230.00 | 0.00 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,313 | 0.00 | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,420.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,130.00 | -10↓ | | | RB 主力合约基差 (元/吨) | 154.00 | -4 ...

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,276 | -23↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1486145 | -15864↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -13,902 | +5130↑ HC5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -19 | +1↑ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 216602 | -44 ...

螺纹钢产业链日报 2026/1/19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,140.00 | -23↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1727955 | -27384↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -68059 | -39354↓ RB5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -48 | +1↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 80548 | -2132↓ HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) | 159 | +7↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,330.00 | -20↓ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,415 | -21↓ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,480.00 | -10↓ 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,180.00 | -30↓ | | | RB 主力合约基差 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bullish and volatile market outlook for the rebar industry, advising investors to pay attention to risk control [2]. 2. Core Viewpoint - On Monday, the RB2605 contract rebounded with increased positions. Despite the weakening downstream demand for rebar during the off - season, the current macro - environment is positive, and market expectations are optimistic. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are above the 0 - axis [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,165 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the position volume is 1,726,703 lots, up 11,840 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 19,314 lots, up 9,160 lots; the RB5 - 10 contract spread is - 46 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the SHFE is 75,421 tons, down 1,212 tons; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread is 146 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,350 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; (actual weight) is 3,436 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) is 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract is 185 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is - 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 834 yuan/wet ton, up 14 yuan; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) is 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei is 2,970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 162.7994 million tons, up 4.18 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 439,800 tons, down 46,200 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.4586 million tons, up 20,300 tons; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 79.33%, up 0.37%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 86.06%, up 0.78%; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 1.4075 million tons, up 141,400 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.9104 million tons, up 28,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 41.88%, up 0.62%. The inventory at sample steel mills is 1.4793 million tons, up 85,600 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 2.9018 million tons, up 75,200 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 70.83%, up 1.04%. The monthly output of crude steel in China is 69.87 million tons, down 2.13 million tons; the monthly output of rebar is 1.434 million tons, up 59,000 tons; the net export volume of steel is 948,000 tons, up 20,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate prosperity index is 91.90, down 0.52; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment is - 2.60%, down 0.90%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment is - 15.90%, down 1.20%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment is - 1.10%, down 1.00%. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.56066 billion square meters, down 31.27 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 534.57 million square meters, down 43.95 million square meters; the inventory of commercial housing for sale is 393.61 million square meters, up 2.84 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, 482 projects started across the country, with a total investment of about 534.092 billion yuan; the total investment in 2025 was about 27.52 trillion yuan. The Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that in 2026, China's industrial economy has strong resilience, great potential, and sufficient vitality, and the government will focus on four aspects: "stabilize", "expand", "innovate", and "increase" [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a view of "oscillating on the upside with attention to risk control" for the RB2605 contract of rebar [2]. 2. Core View - On Monday, the RB2605 contract fluctuated strongly. Macroscopically, the State Council executive meeting arranged the implementation of the decisions and deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference, requiring to accelerate the formulation of specific implementation plans and ensure a good start for the "14th Five - Year Plan". In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar increased slightly this period, with a capacity utilization rate of 39.83% and an expanding year - on - year decline; apparent demand increased slightly and inventory continued to decline. Overall, in the off - season of consumption, the supply and demand of rebar are both weak, but the rebound of furnace materials raises the cost. Coupled with low production and low inventory of rebar, it supports the steel price. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 - axis with a stable red column [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,126 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the trading volume is 1,591,974 lots, up 23,108 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 9,538 lots, down 20,860 lots; the spread between RB1 - 5 contracts is 2 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the SHFE is 82,284 tons, unchanged; the spread between HC2605 - RB2605 contracts is 151 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. b. Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,330 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price in Hangzhou (actual weight) is 3,415 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,510 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Tianjin (theoretical weight) is 3,170 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract is 204 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is - 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 797 yuan/wet ton, up 1 yuan; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) is 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei is 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 155.0814 million tons, up 0.8028 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 517,800 tons, up 18,200 tons [2]. d. Industry Situation - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.3358 million tons, down 16,400 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 1.1313 million tons, up 14,800 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.45%, down 0.16 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 84.91%, down 0.99 percentage points. The output of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.8168 million tons, up 29,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills is 39.83%, up 0.64 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.3954 million tons, down 12,600 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 3.13 million tons, down 257,000 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 69.79%, up 1.04 percentage points; the domestic crude steel output is 69.87 million tons, down 2.13 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese rebar is 1.434 million tons, up 59,000 tons; the net export volume of steel is 948,000 tons, up 20,000 tons [2]. e. Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 91.90, down 0.52; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion is - 2.60%, down 0.90 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion is - 15.90%, down 1.20 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is - 1.10%, down 1.00 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.56066 billion square meters, down 31.27 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 534.57 million square meters, down 43.95 million square meters; the inventory of commercial housing for sale is 393.61 million square meters, up 2.84 million square meters [2]. f. Industry News - The third round of the fifth batch of 10 central ecological and environmental protection inspection teams were stationed in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and 5 central enterprises from November 16 - 19, 2025, and carried out special inspections on the ecological and environmental protection of the Grand Canal in 8 provinces and cities, and recently completed the on - site inspection stage. On December 19, some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin proposed a third - round price cut for coke, with a 50 - yuan/ton cut for wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton cut for dry - quenched coke, to be implemented at zero o'clock on December 22, 2025, and it is expected that the third - round price cut for coke will be fully implemented on Monday [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekly output of rebar decreased, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 45.72%, remaining at a low level. Terminal demand declined, but inventory has been falling for four consecutive weeks. Recently, rebar prices have been falling continuously, and the weak expectations have been realized. The mainstream positions reduced short positions and increased long positions, and the downward momentum weakened. Short - term market trends may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA cross upward at a low level, and the green column turns red. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price: 3,037 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; RB main contract position: 2,020,353 lots, down 11,428 lots; RB contract top 20 net position: - 113,415 lots, up 24,033 lots; RB1 - 5 contract spread: - 65 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 140,134 tons, unchanged; HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread: 219 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight) price: 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (actual weight) price: 3,303 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight) price: 3,280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight) price: 3,180 yuan/ton, unchanged; RB main contract basis: 183 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread: 100 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore powder: 782 yuan/wet ton, up 7 yuan; Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,640 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,190 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei Q235 billet: 2,930 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; 45 - port iron ore inventory: 145.3924 million tons, up 1.1859 million tons; Sample coking plant coke inventory: 374,400 tons, up 700 tons; Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.2888 million tons, down 43,900 tons; 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 81.73%, down 3 percentage points; Tangshan billet inventory: 1.2 million tons, down 30,000 tons; 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 88.59%, up 0.43 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Sample steel mill rebar output: 2.0854 million tons, down 40,500 tons; Sample steel mill rebar capacity utilization rate: 45.72%, down 0.88 percentage points; Sample steel mill rebar inventory: 1.6684 million tons, down 48,700 tons; 35 - city rebar social inventory: 4.257 million tons, down 51,100 tons; Independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate: 67.71%, unchanged; Domestic crude steel output: 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons; Chinese rebar monthly output: 1.541 million tons, up 66,000 tons; Steel net export volume: 9.92 million tons, up 910,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - National real estate climate index: 92.78, down 0.27; Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment: - 0.50%, down 1 percentage point; Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment: - 13.90%, down 1 percentage point; Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment: 1.10%, down 0.9 percentage point; Cumulative value of housing construction area: 6.4858 billion square meters, down 54.71 million square meters; Cumulative value of new housing construction area: 453.99 million square meters, down 55.98 million square meters; Commercial housing unsold area: 399.37 million square meters, up 2.92 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On November 6, Mysteel information showed that the actual rebar output was 2.0854 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40,500 tons; the factory inventory was 1.6684 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 48,700 tons; the social inventory was 4.257 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 51,100 tons; the total inventory was 5.9254 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 99,800 tons; the apparent demand was 2.1852 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 136,600 tons. In October 2025, the total bond financing of the real estate industry was 51.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 76.9%. Affected by the low base in the same period of the previous year, the total bond financing of real estate enterprises increased significantly. On Thursday, the RB2601 contract first declined and then rose. The State Council Tariff Commission announced that starting from 13:01 on November 10, 2025, it will adjust the additional tariffs on imported goods originating from the United States, and continue to suspend the implementation of the 24% additional tariff rate on the United States for one year, while retaining the 10% additional tariff rate [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Thursday, the HC2601 contract rebounded with increased positions. The EU announced steel import restrictions on October 7, planning to significantly cut the steel import quota eligible for tariff exemptions and raise the steel tariff from 25% to 50%. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils remains high with a capacity utilization rate of 82.58%, but demand has declined and inventory has increased. Overall, the holiday affected terminal demand, and tariff disruptions affected market confidence. However, the expectation of post-holiday demand recovery, combined with the rebound of furnace materials, may support steel prices. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels, and the green bar turned red. It is recommended to conduct short-term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,286 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan [2]. - HC main contract open interest: 1,374,586 lots, up 24,718 lots [2]. - HC contract top 20 net positions: -23,217 lots, up 21,390 lots [2]. - HC1 - 5 contract spread: -7 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 46,314 tons, unchanged [2]. - HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread: 190 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,370 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - Guangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,320 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Wuhan 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tianjin 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - HC main contract basis: 84 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [2]. - Hangzhou hot-rolled coil - rebar spread: 80 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 783 yuan/wet ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - Hebei quasi-primary metallurgical coke: 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - 45-port iron ore inventory: 139.9735 million tons, up 1.9313 million tons [2]. - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 39.06 million tons, down 0.23 million tons [2]. - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 663.11 million tons, up 1.73 million tons [2]. - Hebei billet inventory: 127.6 million tons, up 7.94 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 84.27%, down 0.20% [2]. - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.63%, down 0.25% [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil output: 3.2329 million tons, down 0.014 million tons [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 82.58%, down 0.37% [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil factory inventory: 83.60 million tons, up 2.40 million tons [2]. - 33-city hot-rolled coil social inventory: 3.2930 million tons, up 0.2992 million tons [2]. - Domestic crude steel output: 77.37 million tons, down 2.29 million tons [2]. - Steel net export volume: 9.01 million tons, down 0.38 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.8154 million vehicles, up 0.2243 million vehicles [2]. - Automobile sales: 2.8566 million vehicles, up 0.2632 million vehicles [2]. - Air conditioner production: 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units [2]. - Household refrigerator production: 9.4532 million units, up 0.7225 million units [2]. - Household washing machine production: 10.1318 million units, up 1.3575 million units [2]. Industry News - This week, the total inventory of five major steel products was 16.0072 million tons, up 1.2786 million tons. Among them, the steel mill inventory was 4.7256 million tons, up 0.5863 million tons; the social inventory was 11.2816 million tons, up 0.6923 million tons [2]. - From September 29 to October 5, 2025, global shipyards received 18 new ship orders. Chinese shipyards received 13 orders, South Korean shipyards received 4 orders, and Finnish shipyards also received relevant orders [2].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the RB2601 contract fluctuated. The central bank announced a 600 billion yuan MLF operation on September 25, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan this month, a seventh consecutive month of increased roll - overs. The weekly output of rebar remained low with a capacity utilization rate of 45.26%. During the consumption peak season, inventory continued to decline and apparent demand increased. Overall, the steel market was mixed. With the approaching long - holiday, there would be a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, and the market might range - bound. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were near the 0 - axis with shrinking green bars. Short - term trading was recommended, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - RB main contract closing price was 3,167 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; RB main contract open interest was 1,870,449 lots, down 11,775 lots; RB contract top 20 net positions were - 171,227 lots, up 20,425 lots; RB1 - 5 contract spread was - 58 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; RB SHFE warehouse receipt daily report was 277,122 tons, up 7,616 tons; HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 191 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,426 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged. RB main contract basis was 173 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread was 80 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 789 yuan/wet ton, down 3 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,280 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 138.0422 million tons, down 489,100 tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory was 422,100 tons, down 15,500 tons [2] Industry Situation - The sample steel mill coke inventory was 6.449 million tons, up 112,900 tons; the Tangshan billet inventory was 1.225 million tons, up 7,700 tons. The 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate was 84%, up 0.15 percentage points; the 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.38%, up 0.18 percentage points. The sample steel mill rebar output was 2.0646 million tons, up 100 tons; the sample steel mill rebar capacity utilization rate was 45.26%, unchanged. The sample steel mill rebar inventory was 1.6441 million tons, down 6,600 tons; the 35 - city rebar social inventory was 4.7189 million tons, down 133,200 tons. The independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate was 67.71%, down 2.08 percentage points; the domestic crude steel output was 77.37 million tons, down 2.29 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese rebar was 1.518 million tons, down 23,000 tons; the net steel export volume was 901,000 tons, down 38,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.05, down 0.28; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 0.5%, down 1.1 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 12.9%, down 0.9 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 2%, down 1.2 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.43109 billion square meters, down 43.78 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 398.01 million square meters, down 45.95 million square meters; the commercial housing unsold area was 402.29 million square meters, up 3.07 million square meters [2] Industry News - On September 25, Mysteel reported that the actual rebar output was 2.0646 million tons, up 100 tons week - on - week; the mill inventory was 1.6441 million tons, down 6,600 tons; the social inventory was 4.7189 million tons, down 133,200 tons; the total inventory was 6.363 million tons, down 139,800 tons; the apparent demand was 2.2044 million tons, up 104,100 tons. Also, on September 25, rainfall affected 2 tailings ponds in Guangxi with over 100 mm of rain (0 "over - head" ponds), and 65 tailings ponds in Guangxi, Guizhou and Yunnan with 50 - 100 mm of rain (1 "over - head" pond) [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Report Core View - On Thursday, the RB2601 contract increased in position and corrected. The macro - aspect shows that the deputy director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council stated that efforts will be made to promote strategic and professional restructuring and integration of state - owned enterprises. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar continued to decline with a capacity utilization rate of 45.26%. Terminal demand recovered, inventory decreased, and apparent demand continued to rise. Overall, after the Fed's interest rate cut, the market's bullish sentiment weakened, and some mainstream positions took profit, so the short - term market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are above the 0 - axis, and the red column turns green. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term trading within a range, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,147 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; the position volume was 1,999,684 lots, up 36,313 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 224,471 lots, up 16,787 lots. The RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 57 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 255,222 tons, down 14,137 tons. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 207 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; (actual weight) was 3,374 yuan/ton, unchanged. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 143 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan. The spot spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1,490 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,040 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 138.4947 million tons, up 0.2415 million tons. The coke inventory of sample coking plants was 437,600 tons, up 31,000 tons. The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.3361 million tons, up 0.1007 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.85%, up 3.47 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.20%, up 4.43 percentage points. The billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.2173 million tons, down 72,200 tons [2] Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar of sample steel mills was 2.0645 million tons, down 54,800 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 45.26%, down 1.20 percentage points. The mill inventory of sample steel mills was 1.6507 million tons, down 15,600 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.8521 million tons, down 20,200 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, unchanged. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 77.37 million tons, down 2.29 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1.518 million tons, down 23,000 tons. The net export volume of steel was 9.01 million tons, down 380,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.05, down 0.28. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 0.50%, down 1.10 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 12.90%, down 0.90 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 2.00%, down 1.20 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.43109 billion square meters, down 43.78 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 398.01 million square meters, down 45.95 million square meters. The unsold area of commercial housing was 402.29 million square meters, up 3.07 million square meters [2] Industry News - According to Mysteel on September 18, the actual weekly output of rebar was 2.0645 million tons, down 54,800 tons; mill inventory was 1.6507 million tons, down 15,600 tons; social inventory was 4.8521 million tons, down 20,200 tons; total inventory was 6.5028 million tons, down 35,800 tons; apparent demand was 2.1003 million tons, up 119,600 tons. In August 2025, China's excavator output was 27,590 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. From January to August 2025, the output was 245,556 units, a year - on - year increase of 17.6% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On Thursday, the RB2601 contract decreased with increasing positions. Macroscopically, multiple ministries and commissions revealed the key points of next - stage work, promoting capacity governance in key industries and implementing policies to resolve structural contradictions in key industries and promote quality improvement and upgrading. They will make full use of a more proactive fiscal policy to support employment and foreign trade and foster new growth drivers. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly output of rebar continued to decline but was higher than the same period last year; inventory increased for seven consecutive weeks, and apparent demand continued to fall. Overall, market sentiment was low, terminal demand was average, the increase in short positions of mainstream holdings was greater, and the futures price center shifted down. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were running below the 0 axis. The operation strategy is to be bearish in a volatile market, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,092.00 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the position volume was 2,000,701 lots, up 133,027 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 266,935 lots, down 65,611 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 53 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 251,365 tons, up 8,525 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 242 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2]. b. Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,240.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,323 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 148.00 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 170.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 801.00 yuan/wet ton, up 3.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,590.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,290.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,990.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 138.2532 million tons, up 623,000 tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 406,600 tons, up 9,500 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.2354 million tons, up 134,200 tons; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.38%, down 4.23 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.77%, down 7.58 percentage points; the inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.2895 million tons, down 28,000 tons [2]. d. Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills was 2.1193 million tons, down 67,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 46.46%, down 1.48 percentage points; the inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.6663 million tons, down 47,100 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.8723 million tons, up 185,700 tons; the operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, down 1.04 percentage points; the monthly output of crude steel in China was 79.66 million tons, down 3.53 million tons; the monthly output of rebar in China was 1.658 million tons, up 140,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.01 million tons, down 380,000 tons [2]. e. Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 93.34, down 0.25; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 1.60%, down 1.20 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion was - 12.00%, down 0.80 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 3.20%, down 1.40 percentage points; the cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.38731 billion square meters, down 54.1 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, down 48.42 million square meters; the inventory of commercial housing for sale was 405.36 million square meters, up 2.85 million square meters [2]. f. Industry News - On September 11, Mysteel information showed that the actual output of rebar in this period was 2.1193 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 67,500 tons; the mill inventory was 1.6663 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 47,100 tons; the social inventory was 4.8723 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 185,700 tons; the total inventory was 6.5386 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 138,600 tons; the apparent demand was 1.9807 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40,000 tons. As of September 10, according to Mysteel statistics, the total sales of 16 key real - estate enterprises from January to August 2025 were 868.862 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17%; the sales in August were 106.451 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5% and a month - on - month increase of 20.2% [2].