Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Thursday, the HC2601 contract rebounded with increased positions. The EU announced steel import restrictions on October 7, planning to significantly cut the steel import quota eligible for tariff exemptions and raise the steel tariff from 25% to 50%. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils remains high with a capacity utilization rate of 82.58%, but demand has declined and inventory has increased. Overall, the holiday affected terminal demand, and tariff disruptions affected market confidence. However, the expectation of post-holiday demand recovery, combined with the rebound of furnace materials, may support steel prices. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels, and the green bar turned red. It is recommended to conduct short-term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,286 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan [2]. - HC main contract open interest: 1,374,586 lots, up 24,718 lots [2]. - HC contract top 20 net positions: -23,217 lots, up 21,390 lots [2]. - HC1 - 5 contract spread: -7 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 46,314 tons, unchanged [2]. - HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread: 190 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,370 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - Guangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,320 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Wuhan 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tianjin 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - HC main contract basis: 84 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [2]. - Hangzhou hot-rolled coil - rebar spread: 80 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 783 yuan/wet ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - Hebei quasi-primary metallurgical coke: 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - 45-port iron ore inventory: 139.9735 million tons, up 1.9313 million tons [2]. - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 39.06 million tons, down 0.23 million tons [2]. - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 663.11 million tons, up 1.73 million tons [2]. - Hebei billet inventory: 127.6 million tons, up 7.94 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 84.27%, down 0.20% [2]. - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.63%, down 0.25% [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil output: 3.2329 million tons, down 0.014 million tons [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 82.58%, down 0.37% [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil factory inventory: 83.60 million tons, up 2.40 million tons [2]. - 33-city hot-rolled coil social inventory: 3.2930 million tons, up 0.2992 million tons [2]. - Domestic crude steel output: 77.37 million tons, down 2.29 million tons [2]. - Steel net export volume: 9.01 million tons, down 0.38 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.8154 million vehicles, up 0.2243 million vehicles [2]. - Automobile sales: 2.8566 million vehicles, up 0.2632 million vehicles [2]. - Air conditioner production: 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units [2]. - Household refrigerator production: 9.4532 million units, up 0.7225 million units [2]. - Household washing machine production: 10.1318 million units, up 1.3575 million units [2]. Industry News - This week, the total inventory of five major steel products was 16.0072 million tons, up 1.2786 million tons. Among them, the steel mill inventory was 4.7256 million tons, up 0.5863 million tons; the social inventory was 11.2816 million tons, up 0.6923 million tons [2]. - From September 29 to October 5, 2025, global shipyards received 18 new ship orders. Chinese shipyards received 13 orders, South Korean shipyards received 4 orders, and Finnish shipyards also received relevant orders [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Report Core View - On Thursday, the RB2601 contract increased in position and corrected. The macro - aspect shows that the deputy director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council stated that efforts will be made to promote strategic and professional restructuring and integration of state - owned enterprises. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar continued to decline with a capacity utilization rate of 45.26%. Terminal demand recovered, inventory decreased, and apparent demand continued to rise. Overall, after the Fed's interest rate cut, the market's bullish sentiment weakened, and some mainstream positions took profit, so the short - term market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are above the 0 - axis, and the red column turns green. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term trading within a range, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,147 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; the position volume was 1,999,684 lots, up 36,313 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 224,471 lots, up 16,787 lots. The RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 57 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 255,222 tons, down 14,137 tons. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 207 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; (actual weight) was 3,374 yuan/ton, unchanged. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 143 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan. The spot spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1,490 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,040 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 138.4947 million tons, up 0.2415 million tons. The coke inventory of sample coking plants was 437,600 tons, up 31,000 tons. The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.3361 million tons, up 0.1007 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.85%, up 3.47 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.20%, up 4.43 percentage points. The billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.2173 million tons, down 72,200 tons [2] Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar of sample steel mills was 2.0645 million tons, down 54,800 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 45.26%, down 1.20 percentage points. The mill inventory of sample steel mills was 1.6507 million tons, down 15,600 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.8521 million tons, down 20,200 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, unchanged. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 77.37 million tons, down 2.29 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1.518 million tons, down 23,000 tons. The net export volume of steel was 9.01 million tons, down 380,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.05, down 0.28. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 0.50%, down 1.10 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 12.90%, down 0.90 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 2.00%, down 1.20 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.43109 billion square meters, down 43.78 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 398.01 million square meters, down 45.95 million square meters. The unsold area of commercial housing was 402.29 million square meters, up 3.07 million square meters [2] Industry News - According to Mysteel on September 18, the actual weekly output of rebar was 2.0645 million tons, down 54,800 tons; mill inventory was 1.6507 million tons, down 15,600 tons; social inventory was 4.8521 million tons, down 20,200 tons; total inventory was 6.5028 million tons, down 35,800 tons; apparent demand was 2.1003 million tons, up 119,600 tons. In August 2025, China's excavator output was 27,590 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. From January to August 2025, the output was 245,556 units, a year - on - year increase of 17.6% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday, the HC2510 contract rebounded with reduced positions. In terms of macro - aspects, after the reserve requirement ratio cut in May released 100 billion yuan of long - term liquidity, medium - term liquidity has been in a net injection state for the past three months, and the net injection scale in August has significantly expanded. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils continued to increase, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.08%, still at a high level; terminal demand was fair, inventory increased slightly, and apparent demand rose. Overall, in the short term, due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and Tangshan entering the production restriction period, the short - term market may fluctuate strongly. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels. The operation strategy is to be bullish on the fluctuating market, and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,389 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan [2] - HC main contract positions: 938,245 lots, down 59,902 lots [2] - Net positions of the top 20 in the HC contract: - 69,010 lots, down 14,157 lots [2] - HC10 - 1 contract spread: 12 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] - HC warehouse receipts at the Shanghai Futures Exchange: 27,749 tons, down 5,366 tons [2] - HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 251 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coils: 3,450 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Guangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coils: 3,420 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] - Wuhan 4.75 hot - rolled coils: 3,460 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Tianjin 4.75 hot - rolled coils: 3,380 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - HC main contract basis: 61 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan [2] - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread: 110 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 781 yuan/wet ton, up 15 yuan [2] - Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,590 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [2] - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Hebei Q235 billet: 3,040 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] - 45 - port iron ore inventory: 138.452 million tons, up 259,300 tons [2] - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 393,800 tons, up 3,300 tons [2] - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.0969 million tons, down 900 tons [2] - Hebei billet inventory: 1.1609 million tons, up 35,700 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.34%, down 0.23 percentage points [2] - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.27%, up 0.03 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output: 3.2524 million tons, up 96,500 tons [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 83.08%, up 2.46 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory: 788,900 tons, down 10,900 tons [2] - 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory: 2.8255 million tons, up 50,600 tons [2] - Domestic crude steel output: 79.66 million tons, down 3.53 million tons [2] - Steel net export volume: 9.39 million tons, up 180,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.5911 million vehicles, down 203,000 vehicles [2] - Automobile sales: 2.5934 million vehicles, down 311,100 vehicles [2] - Air - conditioner output: 20.5965 million units, down 7.7866 million units [2] - Household refrigerator output: 8.7307 million units, down 316,800 units [2] - Household washing machine output: 8.7743 million units, down 733,600 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - In July 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association's statistics was 150.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. African crude steel output was 1.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.0%; Asian and Oceanian crude steel output was 110.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%; EU (27 countries) crude steel output was 10.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.0%; other European countries' crude steel output was 3.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [2] - On August 25, the central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of MLF operations with a term of 1 year. This is also the central bank's sixth consecutive month of increased volume roll - over, and the central bank's net MLF injection this month reached 300 billion yuan. After the reserve requirement ratio cut in May released 100 billion yuan of long - term liquidity, medium - term liquidity has been in a net injection state for the past three months, and the net injection scale in August has significantly expanded [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the anticipation of supply-side constraints being implemented, which is expected to impact the steel industry positively [1] Price Data Summary - The SW Steel Index is at 2,169, with a weekly increase of 1.8% and a year-to-date increase of 3.2% [3] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,150 CNY/ton, showing a weekly decrease of 1.6% and a year-to-date decrease of 7.6% [3] - The price of hot-rolled coil is 3,200 CNY/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.2% and a year-to-date decrease of 6.4% [3] - The iron ore price index is at 98 USD/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.1% and a year-to-date decrease of 2.0% [3] Inventory Summary - The total social inventory of five major steel products is 1,032 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 4.7% and a year-to-date increase of 1.36% [5] - The total inventory at steel mills is 443 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 1.6% and a year-to-date increase of 26.5% [5] - The port inventory of iron ore is 14,235 million tons, with no weekly change and a year-to-date increase of 4.2% [5] Supply and Demand Summary - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be 1,000 million tons [9] - The average daily molten iron production is expected to be around 230 million tons [9]