1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, the RB2605 contract decreased with reduced positions. The macro - situation shows that according to US officials, President Trump told his assistants that he is willing to end the military action against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 43.37%. Downstream demand continued to increase, and inventory continued to decline. Overall, the fundamentals of rebar changed little, the situation between the US and Iran showed signs of easing, and the decline in oil prices led to a downward trend in the black - series commodities. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward, and the red bar turns green. It is recommended for short - term trading and attention should be paid to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,121.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan; the position volume was 901,052 lots, a decrease of 75,389 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 58,835 lots, a decrease of 10,402 lots; the spread between the RB5 - 10 contracts was - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan; the daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 99,613 tons, with no change; the spread between the HC2605 - RB2605 contracts was 173 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,260.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,344 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,440.00 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,210.00 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis of the RB main contract was 139.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 50.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 785.00 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 7 yuan; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) was 1,490.00 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,170.00 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,980.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the inventory of iron ore at 45 ports (weekly) was 16,996.84 million tons, a decrease of 105.83 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants (weekly) was 49.76 million tons, a decrease of 2.59 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills (weekly) was 691.73 million tons, an increase of 3.95 million tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan (weekly) was 239.94 million tons, a decrease of 9.59 million tons; the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 81.05%, an increase of 1.25 percentage points; the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 86.65%, an increase of 1.10 percentage points; the output of rebar at sample steel mills (weekly) was 197.87 million tons, a decrease of 5.46 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills (weekly) was 43.37%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points; the inventory of rebar at sample steel mills (weekly) was 219.16 million tons, a decrease of 17.04 million tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities (weekly) was 642.75 million tons, a decrease of 10.46 million tons; the operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills (weekly) was 69.79%, an increase of 3.12 percentage points; the monthly output of domestic crude steel was 6,818 million tons, a decrease of 169 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1,375 million tons, an increase of 19 million tons; the net export volume of steel (monthly) was 747.00 million tons, an increase of 18.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index (monthly) was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion (monthly) was - 3.80%, a decrease of 5.60 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion (monthly) was - 17.20%, a decrease of 6.10 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment (monthly) was - 2.20%, a decrease of 2.20 percentage points; the cumulative value of housing construction area (monthly) was 659,890 million square meters, a decrease of 124,518 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area (monthly) was 58,770 million square meters, a decrease of 53,686 million square meters; the unsold area of commercial housing (monthly) was 40,236.00 million square meters, an increase of 3,516.00 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In March, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 50.4%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, above the critical point, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing industry's prosperity level. On March 30, US President Trump posted on a social platform that if an agreement with Iran cannot be reached in the short term and the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately reopened, he will blow up and completely raze all of Iran's power plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island, and possibly all desalination plants [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the RB2605 contract saw a reduction in positions and consolidation. The macro - situation involves China's full - scale second - round pilot of extending the land contract for another 30 years in entire provinces, with key requirements including maintaining the collective ownership system, household - based contracting, the dominant position of farmers, and rural social stability [2]. - In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar continued to increase, and the capacity utilization rate rose to 44.57%. Downstream demand continued to improve, with the apparent demand exceeding 2.05 million tons, and inventory changed from increasing to decreasing. Overall, the supply and demand of rebar both increased, the inventory inflection point appeared, and the bottom support moved up. However, the international situation is volatile, with many uncertainties, and the wide - range fluctuations of international oil prices affect market sentiment [2]. - Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are pulling back from high levels, and it is testing the support at the 0 - axis in the short - term. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3150 - 3110 in the short - term, and risk control should be noted [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,135.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the position volume was down 65,665 hands. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 25,055 hands, an increase of 11,908 hands. The RB5 - 10 contract spread was down 3 yuan/ton, and the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread was down 3 yuan/ton. The RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 58,176 tons, a decrease of 573 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,280.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,364 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,420.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,200.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 145.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan, and the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 20.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 60.8% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 792.00 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 7.00 yuan. The price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) was 1,490.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,190.00 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,980.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 17,191.80 million tons, an increase of 69.08 million tons. The inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 56.10 million tons, a decrease of 6.93 million tons. The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 687.62 million tons, an increase of 16.09 million tons. The inventory of billets in Tangshan was 249.53 million tons, an increase of 9.02 million tons [2]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.36%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 82.90%, a decrease of 2.40 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills was 203.33 million tons, an increase of 8.03 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 44.57%, an increase of 1.75 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 236.20 million tons, a decrease of 3.42 million tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 653.21 million tons, a decrease of 1.34 million tons [2]. - The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 59.38%, an increase of 23.96 percentage points. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 6,818 million tons, a decrease of 169 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1,375 million tons, an increase of 19 million tons. The net export volume of steel was 747.00 million tons, an increase of 18.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.80%, a decrease of 5.60 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment was - 17.20%, a decrease of 6.10 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was - 2.20%, a decrease of 2.20 percentage points [2]. - The cumulative value of housing construction area was 659,890 million square meters, a decrease of 124,518 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 58,770 million square meters, a decrease of 53,686 million square meters. The inventory of commercial housing for sale was 40,236.00 million square meters, an increase of 3,516.00 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On March 19, Mysteel information showed that the actual output of rebar this period was 203.33 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.03 million tons; the mill inventory was 236.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.42 million tons; the social inventory was 653.21 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.34 million tons; the total inventory was 889.41 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.76 million tons; the apparent demand was 208.09 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 31.28 million tons [2]. - At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Commerce on March 19, the spokesperson said that China and the US had in - depth and constructive exchanges and consultations on economic and trade issues, reached some new consensuses, and would continue the consultations [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a volatile and bearish outlook for the rebar market, advising attention to risk control [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the RB2605 contract decreased in price with reduced positions. Macroscopically, the People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration adjusted the minimum down - payment ratio policy for commercial real estate mortgages, reducing the cost of down - payments. The cost - side support weakened, and the mainstream positions reduced long positions and increased short positions, putting pressure on the futures price. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are below the 0 - axis, with the green bar expanding. The weekly output of rebar remained at a low level, with a capacity utilization rate of 41.72%. The apparent demand changed from a decline to an increase, and the inventory decreased slightly. Overall, the spot market for construction steel performed averagely, and the weakening of furnace materials also affected the market [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan; the position volume was 1,727,955 lots, a decrease of 27,384 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 68,059 lots, a decrease of 39,354 lots; the spread between the RB5 - 10 contracts was - 48 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan; the daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 80,548 tons, a decrease of 2,132 tons; the spread between the HC2605 - RB2605 contracts was 159 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,415 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. In Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 190 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 810 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 9 yuan. The price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) was 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 165.5081 million tons, an increase of 2.7087 million tons. The inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 404,800 tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.502 million tons, an increase of 43,400 tons. The inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.4931 million tons, an increase of 85,600 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.82%, a decrease of 0.51 percentage points. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.46%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points. The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.903 million tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons. The capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 41.72%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.4266 million tons, a decrease of 52,700 tons. The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 2.9541 million tons, an increase of 52,300 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 71.88%, an increase of 1.05 percentage points. The monthly output of crude steel in China was 68.18 million tons, a decrease of 1.69 million tons. The monthly output of rebar in China was 14.34 million tons, an increase of 590,000 tons. The net export volume of steel was 10.78 million tons, an increase of 1.3 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.80%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 17.20%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was - 2.20%, a decrease of 1.10 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 659.89 million square meters, a decrease of 38.24 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing starts was 58.77 million square meters, a decrease of 53.13 million square meters. The area of unsold commercial housing was 40.236 million square meters, a decrease of 8.75 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - In 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.2% compared with the previous year. Among them, residential investment was 635.14 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.3%. In December 2025, China's crude steel output was 68.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%; pig iron output was 60.72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9%; steel output was 115.31 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. From January to December, China's crude steel output was 960.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%; pig iron output was 836.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%; steel output was 1446.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the equity bottom is continuing to recover, suggesting a positive outlook for the steel industry [1] Price Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 4,120, with a weekly increase of 3.8% and a year-to-date increase of 3.8% [3] - The SW Steel Index is at 2,752, with a weekly increase of 3.5% and a year-to-date increase of 3.5% [3] - The average price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,280 CNY/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.2% [3] - Iron ore price index is at 108 USD/ton, with a weekly increase of 6% [3] Inventory - Total social inventory of five major steel products is 864,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 1.7% [5] - Total inventory at steel mills is 389,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 1.9% [5] - Port inventory of iron ore is 16,280,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 2.6% [5] Supply and Demand - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be around 750,000 tons [9] - Daily average molten iron production is expected to reach 195,000 tons [9] - The report highlights the recovery in demand for steel products, indicating a positive trend in the market [8][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and bullish stance on the iron ore market, with a reminder to pay attention to risk control [2]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The I2605 contract increased in price with rising positions. The macro - environment features a continued moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, which boosts market confidence. In terms of supply - demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, while the arrivals increased. The blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of steel mills increased slightly, and port inventories continued to rise. Although ports are in a stock - piling trend, mill inventories are at a medium - low level, with potential for future stockpiling. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 828.00 yuan/ton, up 27.00 yuan. The position volume is 666,581 hands, up 25,713 hands. The I 5 - 9 contract spread is 23.5 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 15,395 hands, up 4,518 hands. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts are 1,800.00 hands, down 600.00 hands. The Singapore iron ore main contract's quote at 15:00 is 109 US dollars/ton, up 2.53 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 869 yuan/dry ton, up 8 yuan. The price of 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 868 yuan/dry ton, up 7 yuan. The price of 56.5% Chaote powder ore at Jingtang Port is 771 yuan/dry ton, up 10 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 40 yuan, down 20 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (the previous day) is 106.65 US dollars/ton, up 0.85 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 2.97, down 0.07. The estimated import cost is 861 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) is 3,213.70 tons, down 463.40 tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 2,824.70 tons, up 96.90 tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 16,721.79 tons, up 101.83 tons. The iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 8,946.54 tons, up 86.35 tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) is 11,054.00 tons, down 77.00 tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) are 22 days, up 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 36.56 tons, down 0.25 tons. The operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 0.00%, down 58.66%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 0.00 tons, down 45.90 tons. The BDI index is 1,830.00, down 21.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 22.20 US dollars/ton, up 0.26 US dollars. The iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 8.13 US dollars/ton, down 0.17 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 78.96%, up 0.66%. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 85.28%, up 0.32%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 6,987 tons, down 213 tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 16.95%, up 3.10%. The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 14.73%, up 2.14%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 17.24%, up 0.80%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 19.72%, up 2.82% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1,158.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56.1 tons, showing a slight rebound. The current inventory is slightly lower than the average since the fourth quarter. On January 5, Australian iron ore producer Fenix Resources released its Q4 2025 operations update. The company shipped 1.241 million wet tons of iron ore in the quarter, breaking through one million tons in a single quarter for the first time and setting a new record [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a view of "oscillating on the upside with attention to risk control" for the RB2605 contract of rebar [2]. 2. Core View - On Monday, the RB2605 contract fluctuated strongly. Macroscopically, the State Council executive meeting arranged the implementation of the decisions and deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference, requiring to accelerate the formulation of specific implementation plans and ensure a good start for the "14th Five - Year Plan". In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar increased slightly this period, with a capacity utilization rate of 39.83% and an expanding year - on - year decline; apparent demand increased slightly and inventory continued to decline. Overall, in the off - season of consumption, the supply and demand of rebar are both weak, but the rebound of furnace materials raises the cost. Coupled with low production and low inventory of rebar, it supports the steel price. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 - axis with a stable red column [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,126 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the trading volume is 1,591,974 lots, up 23,108 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 9,538 lots, down 20,860 lots; the spread between RB1 - 5 contracts is 2 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the SHFE is 82,284 tons, unchanged; the spread between HC2605 - RB2605 contracts is 151 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. b. Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,330 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price in Hangzhou (actual weight) is 3,415 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,510 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Tianjin (theoretical weight) is 3,170 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract is 204 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is - 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 797 yuan/wet ton, up 1 yuan; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) is 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei is 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 155.0814 million tons, up 0.8028 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 517,800 tons, up 18,200 tons [2]. d. Industry Situation - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.3358 million tons, down 16,400 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 1.1313 million tons, up 14,800 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.45%, down 0.16 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 84.91%, down 0.99 percentage points. The output of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.8168 million tons, up 29,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills is 39.83%, up 0.64 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills is 1.3954 million tons, down 12,600 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 3.13 million tons, down 257,000 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 69.79%, up 1.04 percentage points; the domestic crude steel output is 69.87 million tons, down 2.13 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese rebar is 1.434 million tons, up 59,000 tons; the net export volume of steel is 948,000 tons, up 20,000 tons [2]. e. Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 91.90, down 0.52; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion is - 2.60%, down 0.90 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion is - 15.90%, down 1.20 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is - 1.10%, down 1.00 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 6.56066 billion square meters, down 31.27 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 534.57 million square meters, down 43.95 million square meters; the inventory of commercial housing for sale is 393.61 million square meters, up 2.84 million square meters [2]. f. Industry News - The third round of the fifth batch of 10 central ecological and environmental protection inspection teams were stationed in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and 5 central enterprises from November 16 - 19, 2025, and carried out special inspections on the ecological and environmental protection of the Grand Canal in 8 provinces and cities, and recently completed the on - site inspection stage. On December 19, some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin proposed a third - round price cut for coke, with a 50 - yuan/ton cut for wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton cut for dry - quenched coke, to be implemented at zero o'clock on December 22, 2025, and it is expected that the third - round price cut for coke will be fully implemented on Monday [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Thursday, the HC2601 contract rebounded with increased positions. The EU announced steel import restrictions on October 7, planning to significantly cut the steel import quota eligible for tariff exemptions and raise the steel tariff from 25% to 50%. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils remains high with a capacity utilization rate of 82.58%, but demand has declined and inventory has increased. Overall, the holiday affected terminal demand, and tariff disruptions affected market confidence. However, the expectation of post-holiday demand recovery, combined with the rebound of furnace materials, may support steel prices. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels, and the green bar turned red. It is recommended to conduct short-term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,286 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan [2]. - HC main contract open interest: 1,374,586 lots, up 24,718 lots [2]. - HC contract top 20 net positions: -23,217 lots, up 21,390 lots [2]. - HC1 - 5 contract spread: -7 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 46,314 tons, unchanged [2]. - HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread: 190 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,370 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - Guangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,320 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Wuhan 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tianjin 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - HC main contract basis: 84 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [2]. - Hangzhou hot-rolled coil - rebar spread: 80 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 783 yuan/wet ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - Hebei quasi-primary metallurgical coke: 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,960 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - 45-port iron ore inventory: 139.9735 million tons, up 1.9313 million tons [2]. - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 39.06 million tons, down 0.23 million tons [2]. - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 663.11 million tons, up 1.73 million tons [2]. - Hebei billet inventory: 127.6 million tons, up 7.94 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 84.27%, down 0.20% [2]. - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.63%, down 0.25% [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil output: 3.2329 million tons, down 0.014 million tons [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 82.58%, down 0.37% [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil factory inventory: 83.60 million tons, up 2.40 million tons [2]. - 33-city hot-rolled coil social inventory: 3.2930 million tons, up 0.2992 million tons [2]. - Domestic crude steel output: 77.37 million tons, down 2.29 million tons [2]. - Steel net export volume: 9.01 million tons, down 0.38 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.8154 million vehicles, up 0.2243 million vehicles [2]. - Automobile sales: 2.8566 million vehicles, up 0.2632 million vehicles [2]. - Air conditioner production: 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units [2]. - Household refrigerator production: 9.4532 million units, up 0.7225 million units [2]. - Household washing machine production: 10.1318 million units, up 1.3575 million units [2]. Industry News - This week, the total inventory of five major steel products was 16.0072 million tons, up 1.2786 million tons. Among them, the steel mill inventory was 4.7256 million tons, up 0.5863 million tons; the social inventory was 11.2816 million tons, up 0.6923 million tons [2]. - From September 29 to October 5, 2025, global shipyards received 18 new ship orders. Chinese shipyards received 13 orders, South Korean shipyards received 4 orders, and Finnish shipyards also received relevant orders [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Report Core View - On Thursday, the RB2601 contract increased in position and corrected. The macro - aspect shows that the deputy director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council stated that efforts will be made to promote strategic and professional restructuring and integration of state - owned enterprises. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar continued to decline with a capacity utilization rate of 45.26%. Terminal demand recovered, inventory decreased, and apparent demand continued to rise. Overall, after the Fed's interest rate cut, the market's bullish sentiment weakened, and some mainstream positions took profit, so the short - term market may fluctuate. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are above the 0 - axis, and the red column turns green. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term trading within a range, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,147 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; the position volume was 1,999,684 lots, up 36,313 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 224,471 lots, up 16,787 lots. The RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 57 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 255,222 tons, down 14,137 tons. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 207 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; (actual weight) was 3,374 yuan/ton, unchanged. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 143 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan. The spot spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1,490 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,040 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 138.4947 million tons, up 0.2415 million tons. The coke inventory of sample coking plants was 437,600 tons, up 31,000 tons. The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.3361 million tons, up 0.1007 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.85%, up 3.47 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.20%, up 4.43 percentage points. The billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.2173 million tons, down 72,200 tons [2] Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar of sample steel mills was 2.0645 million tons, down 54,800 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 45.26%, down 1.20 percentage points. The mill inventory of sample steel mills was 1.6507 million tons, down 15,600 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.8521 million tons, down 20,200 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, unchanged. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 77.37 million tons, down 2.29 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1.518 million tons, down 23,000 tons. The net export volume of steel was 9.01 million tons, down 380,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.05, down 0.28. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 0.50%, down 1.10 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 12.90%, down 0.90 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 2.00%, down 1.20 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.43109 billion square meters, down 43.78 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 398.01 million square meters, down 45.95 million square meters. The unsold area of commercial housing was 402.29 million square meters, up 3.07 million square meters [2] Industry News - According to Mysteel on September 18, the actual weekly output of rebar was 2.0645 million tons, down 54,800 tons; mill inventory was 1.6507 million tons, down 15,600 tons; social inventory was 4.8521 million tons, down 20,200 tons; total inventory was 6.5028 million tons, down 35,800 tons; apparent demand was 2.1003 million tons, up 119,600 tons. In August 2025, China's excavator output was 27,590 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. From January to August 2025, the output was 245,556 units, a year - on - year increase of 17.6% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday, the HC2510 contract rebounded with reduced positions. In terms of macro - aspects, after the reserve requirement ratio cut in May released 100 billion yuan of long - term liquidity, medium - term liquidity has been in a net injection state for the past three months, and the net injection scale in August has significantly expanded. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils continued to increase, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.08%, still at a high level; terminal demand was fair, inventory increased slightly, and apparent demand rose. Overall, in the short term, due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and Tangshan entering the production restriction period, the short - term market may fluctuate strongly. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows that DIFF and DEA rebounded from low levels. The operation strategy is to be bullish on the fluctuating market, and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,389 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan [2] - HC main contract positions: 938,245 lots, down 59,902 lots [2] - Net positions of the top 20 in the HC contract: - 69,010 lots, down 14,157 lots [2] - HC10 - 1 contract spread: 12 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] - HC warehouse receipts at the Shanghai Futures Exchange: 27,749 tons, down 5,366 tons [2] - HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 251 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coils: 3,450 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Guangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coils: 3,420 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] - Wuhan 4.75 hot - rolled coils: 3,460 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Tianjin 4.75 hot - rolled coils: 3,380 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - HC main contract basis: 61 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan [2] - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread: 110 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 781 yuan/wet ton, up 15 yuan [2] - Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,590 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [2] - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Hebei Q235 billet: 3,040 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] - 45 - port iron ore inventory: 138.452 million tons, up 259,300 tons [2] - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 393,800 tons, up 3,300 tons [2] - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.0969 million tons, down 900 tons [2] - Hebei billet inventory: 1.1609 million tons, up 35,700 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.34%, down 0.23 percentage points [2] - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.27%, up 0.03 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output: 3.2524 million tons, up 96,500 tons [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 83.08%, up 2.46 percentage points [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory: 788,900 tons, down 10,900 tons [2] - 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory: 2.8255 million tons, up 50,600 tons [2] - Domestic crude steel output: 79.66 million tons, down 3.53 million tons [2] - Steel net export volume: 9.39 million tons, up 180,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.5911 million vehicles, down 203,000 vehicles [2] - Automobile sales: 2.5934 million vehicles, down 311,100 vehicles [2] - Air - conditioner output: 20.5965 million units, down 7.7866 million units [2] - Household refrigerator output: 8.7307 million units, down 316,800 units [2] - Household washing machine output: 8.7743 million units, down 733,600 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - In July 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association's statistics was 150.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. African crude steel output was 1.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.0%; Asian and Oceanian crude steel output was 110.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%; EU (27 countries) crude steel output was 10.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.0%; other European countries' crude steel output was 3.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [2] - On August 25, the central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of MLF operations with a term of 1 year. This is also the central bank's sixth consecutive month of increased volume roll - over, and the central bank's net MLF injection this month reached 300 billion yuan. After the reserve requirement ratio cut in May released 100 billion yuan of long - term liquidity, medium - term liquidity has been in a net injection state for the past three months, and the net injection scale in August has significantly expanded [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the anticipation of supply-side constraints being implemented, which is expected to impact the steel industry positively [1] Price Data Summary - The SW Steel Index is at 2,169, with a weekly increase of 1.8% and a year-to-date increase of 3.2% [3] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,150 CNY/ton, showing a weekly decrease of 1.6% and a year-to-date decrease of 7.6% [3] - The price of hot-rolled coil is 3,200 CNY/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.2% and a year-to-date decrease of 6.4% [3] - The iron ore price index is at 98 USD/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.1% and a year-to-date decrease of 2.0% [3] Inventory Summary - The total social inventory of five major steel products is 1,032 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 4.7% and a year-to-date increase of 1.36% [5] - The total inventory at steel mills is 443 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 1.6% and a year-to-date increase of 26.5% [5] - The port inventory of iron ore is 14,235 million tons, with no weekly change and a year-to-date increase of 4.2% [5] Supply and Demand Summary - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be 1,000 million tons [9] - The average daily molten iron production is expected to be around 230 million tons [9]