丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 联合研究丨公司点评丨隆鑫通用（603766.SH） [Table_Title] 隆鑫通用2025 年年度业绩预增点评：聚焦主业， 盈利能力持续提升 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司于 2026 年 1 月 17 日发布 2025 年业绩预增公告，预计实现归母净利润为 16.50 亿元- 18.00 亿元，同比增长 47.15%-60.53%。实现扣非后归母净利润 16.00 亿元-17.50 亿元，同比 增长 46.03%-59.72%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 曹海花 张永乾 喻亨一 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490522030001 SAC：S0490524030002 SAC：S0490525030002 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 隆鑫通用（603766.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 隆鑫通用 2025 2] 年年度业绩预增点评： ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The US job market shows strong resilience in the short term, with January non-farm payrolls increasing by 130,000, exceeding market expectations of 65,000 [5][6] - The unemployment rate stands at 4.3%, lower than anticipated, while average hourly earnings grew by 3.7% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [5][6] - Labor force participation rate rose to approximately 62.5%, indicating a recovery in the labor market, although permanent unemployment rates have increased [7] Group 2: Inflation and Price Trends - January CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, below the expected 0.4%, primarily due to the high base effect from the previous year's Spring Festival [11][24] - PPI showed a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, but the month-on-month increase of 0.4% marks a new high since 2024, indicating a potential upward trend in prices [15][25] - The report predicts that if PPI can maintain a month-on-month increase of 0.15-0.2%, CPI could rise to 2% year-on-year, impacting bond yields positively [26] Group 3: Liquid Cooling Industry Insights - The liquid cooling industry is entering a high-growth phase, with significant order increases reported by key players like Vertiv, which saw organic orders surge by 252% year-on-year [20][44] - Major tech companies, including NVIDIA and Google, are adopting liquid cooling as a standard for their next-generation platforms, indicating a shift from optional to mandatory technology [20][44] - The liquid cooling supply chain is being activated through mergers and expansions, with companies like Linyang Technology acquiring liquid cooling suppliers to enhance their market position [20][21] Group 4: Home Appliance Sector Analysis - Longxin General (隆鑫通用) is positioned as a leading player in the motorcycle and all-terrain vehicle market, with a strategic focus on product innovation and global expansion [50][51] - The company has seen significant growth in its premium motorcycle series, with revenue from the "无极" series increasing from 14.3% in 2020 to 30.5% in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 62.98% [52] - Longxin's partnership with Zongshen is expected to enhance its competitive edge through improved technology and supply chain management [51]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects significant growth in its 2025 annual performance, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.65 to 1.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.2% to 60.5% [2]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit of 1.65 to 1.8 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 47.2% to 60.5% year-on-year. The expected non-recurring net profit is projected to be between 1.6 to 1.75 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 46.0% to 59.7% [2]. - For Q4 2025, the company estimates a net profit of approximately 150 million yuan, which is a decline of 33.6% year-on-year and 70.6% quarter-on-quarter. The non-recurring net profit for the same quarter is also expected to be around 150 million yuan, down 42.3% year-on-year and 70.4% quarter-on-quarter [3]. Group 2: Employee Stock Ownership Plan - In December 2025, the company announced an employee stock ownership plan with a scale not exceeding 400 million yuan, which corresponds to approximately 2.594 million shares, accounting for 1.3% of the total share capital. The performance assessment conditions for 2026 to 2028 are set to achieve revenue growth targets for self-owned brands [4]. Group 3: Motorcycle Sales Growth - The company projects sales of large-displacement motorcycles to reach 108,000 units in 2024 and 141,000 units in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 43.1% and 31.2%, respectively. Export sales are expected to be 51,000 units in 2024 and 90,000 units in 2025, with growth rates of 24.8% and 76.9% [5]. - The company's brand, Wujin, has made significant inroads in the European market, with sales in Spain reaching 15,000 units from January to November 2025, marking an increase of 80.7% year-on-year. In Italy, sales for the same period grew by 96.5% year-on-year [5]. Group 4: Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 20.158 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 19.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.767 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 57.6% [7]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.86 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18 times based on the closing price on January 16, 2026 [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a range of 1.65 to 1.80 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 47.2% to 60.5% [1]. - The company's performance in Q4 2025 is expected to be impacted by asset disposal losses and other external factors, but the overall annual performance is driven by strong growth in the motorcycle and general machinery sectors, as well as continuous optimization of the product structure [1]. - The employee stock ownership plan is expected to enhance the stability of the core team and stimulate creativity and motivation [2]. - The company is expanding its large-displacement motorcycle sales globally, with significant contributions from the "Wuji" brand, particularly in the European market [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 20.16 billion, 23.41 billion, and 27.05 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.77 billion, 2.32 billion, and 2.71 billion yuan respectively [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 1.67 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 57.6% compared to 2024 [5]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.86 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18 times based on the closing price of 15.10 yuan per share on January 16, 2026 [5]. Sales and Market Expansion - The company anticipates motorcycle sales of 10.8 million units in 2024 and 14.1 million units in 2025, with export sales expected to reach 5.1 million and 9.0 million units respectively [3]. - The "Wuji" brand has shown strong sales growth in Spain and Italy, with year-on-year increases of 80.7% and 96.5% respectively in 2025 [3]. Employee Engagement - The employee stock ownership plan, with a scale of up to 400 million yuan, aims to bind the interests of core personnel and enhance team stability [2].

Core Viewpoint - Longxin General is expected to maintain high growth in profitability through Q3 2025, driven by steady growth in its motorcycle main business and continuous optimization of the Wujie product series [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The motorcycle main business has shown robust growth, with the Wujie series products continuing to optimize in structure [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the agricultural machinery segment achieved sales revenue of 3.38 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 42.5% [1] Group 2: Market Expansion - The company has built a total of 1,292 overseas sales outlets by the end of the first half of 2025, an increase of 369 outlets compared to the same period last year [1] - In the European market, the number of outlets reached 957, up by 266 from the previous year [1] - The company is actively expanding its strategic layout in Central and South America and Southeast Asia, sequentially exploring new markets [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - With the extensive development of channel construction and orderly exploration of emerging markets, the Wujie series is expected to continue its high-speed growth [1] - The company is accelerating the intelligent transformation of its agricultural machinery business, which is expected to enhance the company's performance elasticity [1] - The deepening penetration of the "Wujie" brand and optimization of export structure provide strong elasticity for the main business performance [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 14.56 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.58 billion yuan, up 75.5% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.53 billion yuan, reflecting an 81.5% increase [2][4] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.80 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, with a net profit of 500 million yuan, marking a 62.5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 490 million yuan, up 78.8% [2][4] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, motorcycle sales contributed significantly, with revenue from motorcycle sales reaching 3.44 billion yuan, accounting for 71.6% of total revenue. The "Wujie" brand generated 1.06 billion yuan in revenue, with export sales of 53,000 units, making up 50.0% of total revenue [11] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 18.8%, with a net margin of 10.5%, indicating improvements in profitability driven by an optimized product matrix and increased overseas sales [11] - The company has established 1,292 overseas sales outlets, with a focus on expanding into European, Central and South American, and Southeast Asian markets, contributing to a 24.9% year-on-year increase in sales revenue for the "Wujie" series [11] Future Earnings Projections - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 1.917 billion yuan, 2.386 billion yuan, and 2.652 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 13.97, 11.22, and 10.10 [11]

Core Viewpoint - Longxin General has established itself as a significant manufacturer in the motorcycle and engine industry, showcasing strong technical capabilities and brand influence, with a focus on various sectors including general aviation and nuclear power [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q3 2025, Longxin General reported revenue of 14.557 billion yuan, ranking 2nd in the industry, with the top competitor, Chunfeng Power, at 14.896 billion yuan [2] - The net profit for the same period was 1.569 billion yuan, leading the industry, while Chunfeng Power's net profit was 1.483 billion yuan [2] - The company achieved a revenue growth of 5.6% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with significant contributions from the Wujie brand and all-terrain vehicles [6] Group 2: Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, Longxin General's debt-to-asset ratio was 43.19%, lower than the industry average of 46.70%, indicating good solvency [3] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 18.89%, slightly below the industry average of 20.07% [3] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders increased by 18.78% to 35,400, while the average number of shares held per shareholder decreased by 15.81% [5] - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited became the third-largest shareholder, increasing its holdings by 34.85 million shares [5] Group 4: Management Compensation - The total compensation for General Manager Gong Hui was 6.3991 million yuan in 2024, an increase of 2.3465 million yuan from 2023 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing's motorcycle giants, Longxin General and Zongshen Power, are experiencing significant profit growth under the leadership of Zuo Zongshen, with both companies expected to report substantial net profit increases by the third quarter of 2025 [2][8] Group 1: Company Performance - Longxin General and Zongshen Power are projected to achieve net profits of 15.2 billion to 16.2 billion yuan and 6.65 billion to 7.82 billion yuan respectively in the first three quarters of 2025, marking year-on-year increases of 69.13% to 80.26% and 70% to 100% [8] - In 2024, Zongshen Power's revenue reached 10.384 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 29.84%, with a net profit of 461 million yuan, up 27.45% [5] - Longxin General's "Wuji" brand has become a key driver of growth, with revenue from this series reaching 1.98 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 30.23% increase, and export sales rising by 83.31% [10] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Zongshen Power and Longxin General ranked second and third in motorcycle sales in China in 2024, with sales of 1.8 million and 1.54 million units respectively [2][6] - Zuo Zongshen has strategically focused on the motorcycle core business, avoiding diversification into real estate and mining, which has contributed to sustained growth [5] - The integration of Longxin General into Zongshen Power's operations has positioned the combined entity as the leading motorcycle manufacturer in China [2][6] Group 3: International Expansion - Longxin General has established a sales network with 1,292 outlets overseas, surpassing the 1,053 outlets in China, indicating a strong international presence [11] - Zongshen Power's domestic and international sales are nearly equal, with domestic sales accounting for 50.23% and international sales 49.77% [12] Group 4: Future Prospects - Zongshen Power is exploring opportunities in the low-altitude economy, with its aviation subsidiary, Zongshen Aviation, being one of the first private companies in China to successfully develop aviation engines [12] - Despite the positive outlook, Zongshen Power recently announced the termination of its IPO plans for Zongshen Aviation due to strategic considerations and market conditions [13]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [12]. Core Views - The company has established itself as a leader in motorcycle manufacturing in China, focusing on strategic optimization and governance improvements after the acquisition by Zongshen, leading to a stabilization and recovery in profitability. The rise of motorcycle riding culture has benefited the company's high-end "VOGE" brand, driving product upgrades. The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.917, 2.386, and 2.652 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.26X, 10.66X, and 9.58X [4][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has deep roots in motorcycle manufacturing, starting with engine OEM and collaborating with BMW to gain high-end manufacturing experience. The launch of the "VOGE" brand in 2018 marked its entry into the mid-to-large displacement market, transitioning towards self-owned brands. The brand system now includes "VOGE + LONCIN + BICOSE," covering various product segments [7][24]. Financial Performance - From 2018 to 2024, the company's revenue grew from 11.204 billion yuan to 16.822 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 7.01%. The company entered a recovery phase post-2021, with significant improvements in net profit and gross margin, expecting gross and net margins of 17.6% and 6.3% in 2024. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 1.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 82.3% [7][26][34]. Domestic Market Dynamics - The rise of "self-pleasing" consumption has created a larger premium space for high-end leisure motorcycles. The sales of large-displacement motorcycles have been increasing, with 400-500cc segment sales reaching 158,000 units in 2024, up 69.8% year-on-year. The domestic sales of large-displacement motorcycles approached 400,000 units in 2024, reflecting an 18.6% increase [8][59]. International Market Strategy - The company has expanded its overseas market presence through a dual approach of channel and product strategies, focusing on high-quality, low-cost products. By 2024, the company had established a sales network in over 90 countries, with overseas revenue accounting for 65% of total revenue. The "VOGE" series products generated 1.346 billion yuan in export sales, a 107.5% increase year-on-year [9][10][67]. Governance and Management Changes - In late 2024, Zongshen New Manufacturing became the controlling shareholder, marking a significant governance restructuring. This change is expected to enhance resource allocation and operational efficiency, with a stable management team remaining in place to ensure continuity [42][45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [2][13]. Core Insights - The company reported strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 9.752 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.074 billion yuan, up 82.26% year-on-year [4][5]. - The company's motorcycle product revenue was 5.835 billion yuan, growing 21.45% year-on-year, while the general machinery segment saw revenue of 1.844 billion yuan, a significant increase of 56.38% [5]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand value and expanding its global sales channels, with over 2,000 dealers and a presence in more than 90 countries [6]. Financial Performance - For the second quarter of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.106 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.83%, and a net profit of 567 million yuan, up 70.99% year-on-year [4]. - The company's gross margin improved to 18.94%, with a net margin of 10.95%, reflecting effective cost control [5]. - The forecast for 2025-2027 predicts revenues of 20.814 billion yuan, 23.341 billion yuan, and 26.084 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 1.825 billion yuan, 2.205 billion yuan, and 2.568 billion yuan, indicating strong growth [7][11]. Business Segments - The company is actively promoting its two main brands: the high-end motorcycle brand "VOGE" and the non-road sports motorcycle brand "LONCIN," focusing on product differentiation and channel development [6]. - The company is also investing in the development of garden machinery products, with new models expected to launch soon [6]. Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13.82, 11.43, and 9.82, respectively, suggesting an attractive valuation relative to expected earnings growth [7][11].