Core Viewpoint - Verdad Advisers LP is planning to launch a new Japanese small-cap stock fund, indicating a shift in global investor focus from blue-chip stocks to the revitalized Japanese market for higher returns [1][3]. Group 1: Fund Launch and Strategy - The new fund will primarily invest in small-cap companies, with a target market capitalization exceeding $400 million [1]. - The fund's strategy will mirror that of Verdad's existing small-cap funds, focusing on companies with inefficient capital usage, such as those with high debt burdens or excessive cash reserves [1]. - The fund is expected to launch as early as this year, with plans to grow its assets to over $1 billion in the coming years [3]. Group 2: Market Performance - Japanese small-cap stocks have outperformed large-cap stocks, with a 19% increase in the small-cap index compared to a 14% rise in the TOPIX index [3]. - The MSCI Japan Small Cap Value Index has surged over 30% this year [3]. - Verdad's existing funds have achieved a return of 39% as of the end of August, managing a total of $300 million, which constitutes about a quarter of Verdad's total assets [3]. Group 3: Challenges and Market Dynamics - Small-cap strategies face challenges such as limited liquidity and insufficient English disclosure from smaller companies [3]. - A survey by the Tokyo Stock Exchange revealed that only 37% of companies with a market cap below 25 billion yen (approximately $169 million) provide English announcements, compared to 63% for companies with a market cap of 100 billion yen or more [3]. - Verdad plans to hire one or two analysts specializing in quantitative and fundamental analysis to support its expansion efforts [3].

Core Insights - The total assets of the Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) market in Hong Kong increased by 1.8% to HKD 1.48 trillion as of the end of August [1] - There was a net inflow of HKD 2.02 billion into stock funds in August, while mixed asset funds and lower-risk assets experienced net outflows of HKD 150 million and HKD 1.87 billion, respectively [1] - A total of HKD 3 billion flowed into stock funds over July and August [1] Fund Inflows - The top five asset categories with the highest net inflows were "US Stock Funds," "Pre-set Investment Strategy - Core Accumulation Funds," "Hong Kong Stock Funds (Index Tracking)," "Global Stock Funds," and "Japanese Stock Funds" [1] - The US Stock Funds, DIS Core Funds, and Hong Kong Stock Funds (Index Tracking) have consistently been the top three categories for net inflows for two consecutive months, maintaining the same ranking as in July [1] Fund Outflows - The top five asset categories with the highest net outflows were "MPF Conservative Funds," "Mixed Asset Funds (80% to 100% Stocks)," "Guaranteed Funds," "Mixed Asset Funds (60% to 80% Stocks)," and "Other Stock Funds" [1] - The trend indicates a shift in investment attitudes, with members becoming more aggressive in their allocations towards stock funds [2] Market Sentiment - The investment sentiment has shifted positively, with members increasingly allocating funds to US and Hong Kong stock funds, reflecting a recovery in confidence towards the Hong Kong market influenced by the strong performance of the Hang Seng Index [2] - In August, US stock funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 920 million, indicating a gradual return to US stock funds after significant outflows earlier in the year [2] - Hong Kong stock funds (index tracking) saw a net inflow of HKD 820 million, suggesting a renewed confidence among members [2]

Core Insights - The Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) is expected to record a positive monthly return of 1.3% in August, leading to a year-to-date return of approximately 11.56%, marking the best performance for the first eight months since 2017 [1] - The anticipated investment gains for August are around HKD 18.8 billion, translating to an average profit of about HKD 3,930 per MPF member, with total investment returns since the beginning of 2025 projected to reach approximately HKD 151 billion [1] - Hong Kong and mainland stock funds have led the performance year-to-date with an increase of about 25.94%, while the positive return in August is primarily driven by Japanese stock funds, which have risen approximately 5.23% [1] Asset Growth - The total assets of the MPF are expected to reach a historical high of approximately HKD 1.47 trillion by the end of August, marking the fourth consecutive month of record highs, with an increase of about HKD 21.82 billion from July [1] - The average account balance per member is projected to be around HKD 306,700, which is an increase of about HKD 4,552 from July and a cumulative increase of approximately HKD 37,417 since the beginning of 2025 [1] Market Sentiment - The chairman of MPF Ratings, Cong Chuanpu, indicated that the first eight months of this year represent the best performance for the MPF in the past eight years, suggesting that members may start to demand new fund products to maintain this positive momentum [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the MPF market continues to show a steady upward trend, with a recorded return of 1.6% in August and an overall increase of 11.9% year-to-date [1] - The average return per person in August was HKD 4,956, while the average gain since the beginning of the year reached HKD 32,657 [1] - Stock funds remain the primary driver of MPF performance, with the stock fund index rising by 16.7% year-to-date [1] Group 2 - The best-performing fund in August was the Japanese stock fund, which recorded a 5.5% increase, and a year-to-date growth of 17.1% [1] - The Greater China stock fund and Hong Kong stock fund also performed well, with increases of 4.3% and 2.5% respectively, the latter achieving a year-to-date increase of 26.2% [1] - The US stock fund had the weakest performance, with only a 1.3% increase in August and a year-to-date return of 8.4%, indicating recent volatility in the US stock market [1] Group 3 - The MPF market is characterized by a strong performance in Asian and local markets, with mixed asset funds benefiting from the stock market's upward trend [1] - Fixed income funds maintained stability but offered limited returns [1] - GUM advises members to regularly review their asset allocation based on their risk tolerance and retirement goals, highlighting the long-term growth potential of stock funds despite short-term volatility [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Japan's bond market is dominated by government and quasi - government bonds, and the scale of government debt has been continuously increasing, while the growth of corporate and individual debt may stagnate in the stage of population negative growth [5][15]. - The Bank of Japan is the most important investor in the Japanese bond market, holding nearly half of Japanese government bonds. Banks and insurance companies have a relatively high proportion of overseas bond holdings due to low domestic bond yields. Although Japan's government debt - to - GDP ratio is high, it has not experienced a currency crisis because most of its government bonds are held by domestic investors [17]. - Japan's stock funds have grown significantly, while the scale of fixed - income funds has nearly reached zero. When the 10 - year government bond yield is below 2%, the scale of bond funds starts to decline; when it is below 1.5%, the decline accelerates; when it is below 0.5%, the scale may gradually reach zero [1][99]. - In the low - interest - rate era, the indexation and ETF - ization of bond funds are major trends, and the fee rate shows a downward trend. Global bond funds may be a direction when domestic bond yields are low under the condition of free capital convertibility [1][101]. - China is in a low - interest - rate era. The development of domestic pure - bond funds may stagnate, and it is recommended to actively follow the trend of bond - fund indexation and ETF - ization, develop overseas bond funds, and strengthen the development of fixed - income plus funds [102][106]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Japan's Bond Market Structure's Long - term Changes 3.1.1 Japan's Economic Past and Present - After World War II, Japan's economy grew rapidly from 1961 - 1990, with an average real GDP growth rate of 6.2%. In the 1980s, Japan was world - leading in many fields. However, since the 1990s, due to the bursting of the real - estate and stock - market bubbles, Japan has entered a "lost era", with an average real GDP growth rate of only 0.7% from 1992 - 2024 [6]. - Japan's GDP was once very close to that of the United States in 1995, accounting for 72.6% of the US GDP. But by 2024, it was only 13.8% of the US GDP [7]. 3.1.2 Japan's Bond Market Structure Changes - Japan's bond types include government bonds, corporate bonds, financial bonds, etc. Government and quasi - government bonds are the main part of the bond market. As of the end of 2024, the balance of government and quasi - government bonds accounted for 92.3% of the total bond - market scale [9]. - Since 1998, the proportion of government and quasi - government bonds in the Japanese bond market has gradually increased from 64.1% to 92.3%. The scale of the Japanese bond market has been growing, but the scale of convertible bonds has nearly reached zero, reflecting the low financing demand of Japanese enterprises [9][14]. - Looking forward, the scale of Chinese government bonds may continue to increase, and the proportion of government bonds in the bond market may continue to rise [15]. 3.2 Japan's Bond Market Investor Structure Changes 3.2.1 Holders of Japanese Government Bonds - As of the end of 2023, the Bank of Japan held 47.9% of Japanese government bonds, followed by insurance companies, banks, pension funds, and overseas investors [18]. - The issuance term of Japanese government bonds is relatively long, with bonds with a term of 10 years and above accounting for 76.4% of the balance as of the end of 2023 [20]. 3.2.2 Bond Investment of Various Japanese Investors - The Bank of Japan is the core investor in Japanese government bonds. As of the end of 2024, it held 582.7 trillion yen of government bonds, accounting for 47.5% of the government - bond balance. The Bank of Japan's assets are mainly government bonds [22][28]. - Japanese financial institutions have a relatively high proportion of overseas bond holdings. As of March 2024, overseas bonds accounted for 37.6% of the bond investments of Japanese domestic banks and 25.2% of those of the insurance industry [29]. - The proportion of securities investment of Mitsubishi UFJ Bank has decreased significantly since 2013, which is related to the low bond yields in Japan. When the 10 - year government bond yield falls below 1%, the proportion of its securities investment decreases significantly [31][32]. - Japanese life - insurance companies invest a significant amount in Japanese government bonds and also have a relatively high proportion of overseas - securities investment. The Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) has a relatively high proportion of stock investment, with a 49.9% stock - investment ratio at the end of 2024 [39][40]. - Japanese retail government bonds have three main terms: 3, 5, and 10 years. The amount of government bonds held by individual investors has remained at a low level in recent years, which is related to the decline in government - bond yields [43]. 3.3 Japan's Public - Fund Industry's Seventy - year Development 3.3.1 Long - term Changes in Japan's Public - Fund Industry - Japan's public - fund industry has a history of more than 70 years. The earliest securities investment trust appeared in 1937, and the legal basis for modern securities investment trust was established in 1951. The earliest open - end stock investment fund was established in 1952, and the earliest bond fund was established in 1961 [53]. - The development of Japan's public funds can be divided into four stages: the start - up stage (before 1971), the booming development stage (1972 - 1989), the stock - fund downturn stage (1990 - 1997), and the stock - fund maturity stage (after 1997). As of the end of 2024, the total scale of Japanese public funds reached a record high of 246 trillion yen, with stock funds accounting for the majority [54][55][56]. 3.3.2 Structure Evolution and Investment Direction of Japan's Stock Funds - Japan's stock funds can invest in both domestic and overseas bonds and stocks. The scale of bonds invested by stock funds was once higher than that of stocks, but since 2012, the proportion of bond investment has decreased significantly [60]. - As of the end of 2024, Japanese stock funds held 10.1 trillion yen of domestic stocks, accounting for 10.2% of the total market value of the Japanese stock market. The top three industries with increased investment proportions from 2011 - 2024 were electrical appliances, services, and retail, while the top three with decreased proportions were automobiles, chemicals, and glass and ceramics [64]. - The proportion of bond investment by Japanese stock funds is closely related to the stock - market situation and bond - yield levels. As of the end of 2024, the bond - investment proportion of Japanese stock funds was only 8.0% [66]. - Since 2013, the scale of Japanese stock funds has increased significantly, which is closely related to the rise of the stock market and the development of ETFs. As of the end of 2024, the scale of ETFs in stock funds accounted for 38.8% [68]. 3.3.3 Evolution of Japan's Fixed - Income Funds - Japan's fixed - income funds are mainly divided into money funds (MMF), long - term bond funds, medium - term government - bond funds, domestic - and - foreign - bond funds, and money reserve funds (MRF). Currently, the scale of money funds, medium - term government - bond funds, and domestic - and - foreign - bond funds has reached zero [71]. - The scale of Japanese money funds reached zero in 2017 due to the Bank of Japan's unconventional monetary - easing policies and negative interest rates [75]. - The scale of Japanese bond funds has decreased significantly. As of the end of 2024, the scale of long - term bond funds was only 0.45 trillion yen, and the fixed - income funds are mainly MRF, with a scale of 15.3 trillion yen [71][84]. 3.3.4 Competition Pattern of Japanese Asset - Management Institutions - As of the end of 2024, there were hundreds of asset - management institutions in Japan, including 80 public - asset - management companies. The total management scale of public - asset - management institutions was 380 trillion yen, with public - fund scale at 246 trillion yen [90]. - Nomura Asset Management dominates the market, and the top five public - fund institutions account for nearly 70% of the market share. The indexation and ETF - ization characteristics of Japanese stock funds are obvious, and the average fee rate of public funds is in a downward trend [91][95][97]. 3.4 Enlightenment from the Development of Japanese Fixed - Income Funds 3.4.1 Enlightenment from the Development of Japanese Fixed - Income Funds - When the 10 - year government - bond yield is below 0.5%, the development of fixed - income funds may reach an end. The current main part of Japanese fixed - income funds is MRF, which is less sensitive to yield [98][100]. - If capital is freely convertible, global bond funds may be a direction when domestic bond yields are low. However, the total scale of Japanese bond funds investing in overseas bonds is not large due to exchange - rate risks and hedging costs [100]. - In a low - interest - rate environment, the indexation and ETF - ization of bond funds are major trends, and the fee rate shows a downward trend [101]. 3.4.2 Where Do Bond Funds Go in the Low - Interest - Rate Era? - China is in a low - interest - rate era, and the development of domestic pure - bond funds may stagnate. It is recommended to actively follow the trend of bond - fund indexation and ETF - ization, develop overseas bond funds, and strengthen the development of fixed - income plus funds [102][106][109]. - In the low - interest - rate era, bond - fund indexation and ETF - ization are major trends. Nomura Asset Management has many bond ETFs and index funds. China's fund companies can actively layout bond - segment index funds or ETFs [109][112]. - Fund companies are advised to actively obtain QDII quotas and vigorously layout overseas - bond investments [117]. - Fixed - income plus funds still have broad development space and can be further segmented, and the scope of plus - assets can be expanded [118].

Group 1 - Major Japanese investment companies are expanding their sales networks for Japanese stocks overseas, with Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management establishing its first Asian base in Singapore and Mitsubishi UFJ Trust Bank expanding sales across Europe [2][3] - The trend of distancing from Chinese stocks continues, as investors are increasingly selective about where to allocate their funds, creating an opportunity for Japanese stocks to attract new investment [2][3] - According to Morningstar Japan, the Chinese stock market has seen continuous outflows for four weeks since late March, indicating a shift in investor interest towards Japanese equities [2] Group 2 - Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management plans to set up a marketing base in Singapore by June, aiming to attract institutional investors and increase direct engagement opportunities for Japanese stock funds [3] - Mitsubishi UFJ Trust Bank has begun selling Japanese stock funds through its Australian subsidiary, focusing on mid-cap stocks and high-profit companies, with plans to expand sales to the entire European market by 2025 [4] - Asset Management One, backed by Mizuho Financial Group, will start accepting investments in Japanese stocks in the U.S. by 2025, responding to increasing demand from institutional investors [4] Group 3 - Japanese investment companies are expected to enhance their investment capabilities in response to the Japanese government's initiative to promote investment, as they seek to capitalize on the global trend of reallocating funds [5] - The overall stock prices of Japanese companies are projected to rise by 2024 due to strong manufacturing performance and market reforms, making Japanese stocks an attractive alternative amid geopolitical tensions affecting Chinese markets [4]

Group 1 - Major Japanese investment companies are expanding their overseas sales networks for Japanese stocks, with Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management establishing its first Asian base in Singapore and Mitsubishi UFJ Trust Bank selling Japanese stock funds across Europe [1][2] - The trend of distancing from Chinese stocks continues, as investors are increasingly selective about where to allocate their funds, creating an opportunity for Japanese stocks to attract new investment [1][3] - According to Morningstar Japan, the Chinese stock market has seen continuous outflows for four weeks since late March, highlighting the potential for Japanese investment firms to enhance their global presence [1][2] Group 2 - Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management plans to set up a marketing base in Singapore with around 10 marketing personnel to sell Japanese stock funds, aiming to increase direct engagement with institutional investors [2] - Mitsubishi UFJ Trust Bank has begun selling Japanese stock funds through its subsidiary, First Sentier Investors, focusing on mid-cap stocks and high-profit companies, with plans to expand sales to Europe and Australia by 2025 [2] - Asset Management One, backed by Mizuho Financial Group, will start accepting investments in Japanese stocks in the U.S. by 2025, responding to increasing demand from institutional investors [2][3] Group 3 - Global institutional investors have historically invested in Japanese stocks for risk diversification, but interest had waned due to the allure of emerging markets like China and India [3] - Factors such as strong manufacturing performance and market reforms in the Tokyo Stock Exchange are expected to drive Japanese stock prices upward through 2024, with the depreciation of the yen making Japanese stocks more attractive [3] - Japanese investment companies are seizing the opportunity to enhance their overseas business, which has lagged behind Western counterparts, in light of the Japanese government's push for investment-led growth [3]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) experienced a slight decline of approximately 0.61% in April, marking the second monthly loss in 2025, despite recovering from early-month drops [1] - As of April, the total assets of the MPF are estimated at approximately HKD 1.333 trillion, a decrease of about HKD 45 billion from March, but an increase of approximately HKD 423 billion year-to-date [1][2] Summary by Category Performance Overview - In April, the MPF incurred investment losses of around HKD 8.2 billion, with an average loss of about HKD 1,700 per member, while year-to-date returns amount to approximately HKD 26.6 billion, averaging HKD 5,600 per member [1] - The largest asset category, Mainland China and Hong Kong stock funds, recorded the worst performance in April with a decline of about 3.94%, yet year-to-date, it has risen by approximately 7.54% [1] Comparative Analysis - The performance of Mainland China and Hong Kong stock funds in the first four months of 2025 is noted as the seventh-best since the MPF's inception, contrasting sharply with the US stock funds, which have seen a year-to-date decline of about 6.21%, marking it as the fourth-worst performance in the same period [2]