展望2026，GUM首席投资总监刘嘉鸿指出，环球股票基金值得留意。环球股票基金可维持适量的美股 配置。此外，预期美港元长远将缓慢走弱，非美港元资产有望继续受益于滙率优势，提升整体回报潜 力。至于港股，港股基金同样值得关注。总体而言，2026年投资应注重均衡配置，结合全球视野和风险 管理，以应对潜在波动。 整体而言，港股基金上半年领涨，下半年仍维持强势，但包含内地、香港、台湾省三地优势的"大中华 股票基金"最终跑赢，该类别今年平均回报高达33.7%。 强积金顾问GUM今日(7日)公布2025年强积金成绩表。去年"GUM强积金综合指数"上涨16.7%，报286.4 点；"GUM强积金股票基金指数"升23.7%，报411.5点；"GUM强积金混合资产基金指数"升16.7%，报 287.6点；"GUM强积金固定收益基金指数"上升3.3%，报132.9点。2025年人均赚逾4.5万港元，超过 2024全年"人均回报"逾1倍，创新高。强积金今年已连升4个季度。若按年计，强积金已连升3年。 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant gains during the holiday, with notable increases in major stocks such as China Aviation Industry Corporation (6.80%), Alibaba (4.34%), and Tencent (4.01%) [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 4.00%, reflecting a positive sentiment in the technology sector [1] - The reasons behind the surge in stock prices are varied and not elaborated upon in detail [1] Group 2 - Due to the A-share market being closed, Hong Kong ETFs did not trade, resulting in a zero change in their valuations for the day [2] - The gains from the Hong Kong stocks will be reflected in the net asset value of Hong Kong funds on January 5, when the A-share market reopens [2] - For example, if the Hang Seng Technology Index rises by 1% on January 5, the total gain for the fund would be 5%, while a 2% drop would reduce the gain to 2% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent pullback in the Hong Kong stock market is primarily driven by short-term factors, while the fundamental outlook remains stable, presenting better value for investment in technology and dividend sectors, with a focus on core assets for medium to long-term allocation [2][4][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a decline of nearly 5% in the Hang Seng Index and close to 15% in the Hang Seng Tech Index since October [2]. - Factors contributing to the market pullback include fluctuations in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, concerns over valuation bubbles in the AI sector, and seasonal liquidity pressures as year-end approaches [4][5]. - Despite the market's volatility, there has been a continuous inflow of capital from mainland investors, indicating a strong long-term allocation interest in Hong Kong stocks [5] . Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The current market adjustment has made Hong Kong stocks more attractive in terms of valuation, with a favorable window for investment emerging [6][7]. - Key sectors identified for investment include healthcare, technology, cyclical stocks benefiting from supply-demand changes, and dividend-paying stocks that align with insurance capital investment strategies [10][11]. - The healthcare sector is expected to benefit from policy support for innovative drugs, while the technology sector is poised for growth driven by AI applications and favorable monetary policy [10][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, the Hong Kong stock market is anticipated to experience a dual boost from improved fundamentals and valuations, supported by domestic policies and external monetary easing from major economies [7]. - The AI trend is expected to continue driving growth in the technology sector, with significant upside potential for quality blue-chip stocks in the internet and healthcare domains [10][11].

Group 1 - The core driving factors for the continuous growth of Hong Kong stock funds are identified as the "valuation gap" effect, structural advantages, and the increasing attractiveness of Chinese assets [2][3] - The Hang Seng Index's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 11.97 times, significantly lower than major global indices like Germany's DAX (18.44 times) and the UK's FTSE 100 (20.23 times), indicating a favorable valuation for investors [2] - The dividend yield of Hong Kong stocks stands at 3.05%, which is more attractive compared to the S&P 500's 1.11%, further enhancing the appeal of Hong Kong stocks [2] Group 2 - Hong Kong's stock market offers a dual allocation strategy, catering to both defensive and growth needs, with blue-chip stocks providing around 6% dividend yield for defensive positioning and sectors like technology, biomedicine, and new consumption representing growth opportunities [2][3] - The market is seen as a key platform for high-quality Chinese enterprises, attracting both domestic and foreign investments, especially as China's economy recovers and the high-tech sector continues to innovate [2][3] - Key investment areas in the Hong Kong market include high-dividend stocks, technology internet, biomedicine, and new consumption, which are gaining attention from investors seeking stable returns and growth potential [3]

Industry News - New regulations for investor suitability management are being introduced, with the China Securities Investment Fund Industry Association releasing a draft for public consultation. The draft aims to refine and standardize the suitability management practices of fund managers and sales institutions, focusing on risk assessment frequency, fund risk classification, and special protections for investors over 65 years old [1] Product Dynamics - Two public fund companies, Huaxia Fund and E Fund, have entered the global top twenty ETF providers, ranking 18th and 19th respectively. Huaxia Fund first made the list in 2023 and has since improved its position [3] - The total scale of actively managed equity funds has reached 1410.68 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 132.25%, as 276 new funds were established this year [4] - The bond ETF market has expanded significantly, with the total scale reaching 7062.9 billion yuan, marking a new historical high [5] - The cross-border ETF market has also seen growth, with a total scale of 9136.77 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 115.36% [6] - The scale of Hong Kong stock funds has surpassed 1 trillion yuan, indicating significant expansion in this sector [7] - The number of newly launched funds this year has reached a three-year high, with over 1300 new funds expected to be issued [8] Institutional Dynamics - Nearly 100 funds have issued warnings for potential liquidation, with 93 funds reporting such alerts in the past month [10][11] - Anxin Fund has been granted QDII business qualifications, becoming the first fund company to receive this license this year, bringing the total number of licensed QDII fund companies to 56 [12] - Ping An Fund has added Beijing Chuangjin Qifu as a sales institution, allowing investors to manage various fund-related transactions through this new channel [13]

Group 1: FOF Funds and QDII Growth - FOF funds have seen a significant increase in fundraising, with one new fund raising nearly 1.8 billion yuan, marking a 400% increase compared to the entire year of 2024 [1] - The total scale of FOF funds has surpassed 200 billion yuan this year, although it remains small compared to the overall fund market of over 36 trillion yuan [1] - QDII funds have also experienced rapid growth, with total shares reaching approximately 680.97 billion, up from about 571.12 billion in the previous quarter, indicating a net subscription of 109.8 billion [1] - The highest annual return for QDII funds has reached 121.70%, attracting more attention from investors [1] Group 2: Hong Kong Fund Growth and Market Dynamics - The scale of Hong Kong funds has exceeded 1 trillion yuan, driven by increased investment enthusiasm [2] - The total shares of the Hang Seng Technology ETF have grown by 32.53 billion from October 1 to November 12 [2] - The concentration of holdings in Hong Kong funds has increased, which may lead to significant fluctuations in net value during the year-end market rebalancing phase [2] Group 3: Gold Investment Trends - Banks have raised the minimum investment threshold for gold savings to 1,500 yuan, the highest in history, following a rise in international gold prices [3] - The adjustment in investment thresholds reflects a growing concern over risks associated with gold price volatility [3] Group 4: A-Share Company Dividends - As of November 12, 37 A-share companies have completed their third-quarter dividend distributions, totaling over 6.3 billion yuan [4] - The increase in cash dividends is attributed to regulatory guidance and improved corporate earnings, transforming dividends from optional to feasible strategies for more companies [4] Group 5: Human-shaped Robot Industry Outlook - The human-shaped robot industry is expected to experience a significant breakthrough in 2026, likened to the "iPhone moment" for the sector [5] - Companies involved in the human-shaped robot supply chain are anticipated to benefit from the upcoming mass production era [5] Group 6: AI in Animation and Drama Industry - The animation and drama sector has seen a surge, with over 3,000 new works launched in the first half of the year, resulting in a 12-fold increase in revenue [6] - The market size for this sector is projected to exceed 20 billion yuan this year, driven by the impact of AI technology [6] Group 7: Internet Companies and Payment Licenses - Internet companies have been actively increasing capital for their payment subsidiaries, with significant increases reported by companies like Douyin and Tencent [7] - The regulatory environment has prompted these companies to enhance compliance and expand into high-capital businesses such as cross-border payments [7] Group 8: Global Wine Production Trends - Global wine production is expected to see a slight increase in 2025, but it will remain below average levels due to extreme weather conditions [8] - The forecasted production for 2025 is approximately 23.2 billion liters, a 3% increase from 2024, which recorded the lowest production since 1961 [8] Group 9: Corporate Management Changes - Several companies, including Keg Precision Machinery and Haowei Group, have undergone significant management changes, with new appointments and resignations [9][10] - These changes may impact company operations and strategic direction moving forward [9][10] Group 10: Financial Performance of Retail Companies - Gaoxin Retail reported a revenue of 30.5 billion yuan for the first half of the fiscal year, a decrease of 12.12%, resulting in a net loss of 1.23 billion yuan [11] - The decline in revenue is attributed to intensified market competition and consumer fatigue [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the enthusiasm for investing in Hong Kong stocks is driving the continuous expansion of Hong Kong stock fund sizes, with a notable increase in passive funds [1][2] - As of the end of the third quarter, the total size of Hong Kong stock funds exceeded 1 trillion RMB, reaching 1,033.008 billion RMB, a significant increase of 67.98% compared to the end of the second quarter [1] - The total number of fund shares reached 881.067 million, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 42% [1] Group 2 - Passive funds have become the main driver of size expansion, with the "Hong Kong Stock Connect - Index and Linked Funds" and "Hong Kong QDII - Index and Linked Funds" reaching sizes of 473.832 billion RMB and 383.554 billion RMB, respectively [2] - The "Hong Kong Stock Connect - Index and Linked Funds" saw a quarter-on-quarter growth of 93.37% in size and 70.32% in shares [2] Group 3 - As of the end of the third quarter, the stock position of Hong Kong stock funds increased by 0.75 percentage points to 92.71%, with nearly 80% of funds holding over 90% in stocks [3] - The technology and consumer sectors remain the primary focus for Hong Kong stock funds, with holdings accounting for 37% and 25.16% respectively [3] - The concentration of holdings is evident, with large-cap stocks (market value over 80 billion HKD) making up 93.94% of the total market value of the funds' top holdings, an increase of 4.05 percentage points from the previous quarter [3]

Core Viewpoint - The overall market is experiencing an upward trend, with the A-share market reaching a rating of 4.1 stars, indicating a positive investment environment [1][2]. Market Performance - All market caps (large, medium, and small) are rising, with large and medium caps showing slightly higher gains [3]. - Growth style stocks are outperforming, while value style stocks are also seeing increases [4][6]. - The Sci-Tech 50 and ChiNext indices are leading the gains in the market [5]. Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a decline, particularly in technology and pharmaceutical indices, which are showing significant volatility [9][10]. - Despite recent fluctuations, the overall performance of the Hong Kong market this year has been better than that of the A-share market [13]. - The Hong Kong market rating has returned to around 3.5-3.6 stars [14]. Investment Strategies by Star Ratings - **5-Star Rating**: Represents the highest investment value stage for stock funds, characterized by a lack of investor confidence. It requires courage to invest during this phase [16][18]. - **4-Star Rating**: Indicates a return to normal valuations for some stock funds, with fewer undervalued options available. Investment is possible but should be balanced with stock asset proportions [20][26]. - **3-Star Rating**: Most funds are at normal or high valuations, with very few undervalued options. This stage is not ideal for large investments in stock funds, and investors should consider lower-risk assets [30][33]. Dividend and Cash Flow Indices - The article includes a valuation table for dividend and free cash flow indices, providing insights into their performance metrics such as earnings yield, P/E ratio, and dividend yield [37]. - Specific indices like the Shanghai Dividend Index and others are highlighted for their earnings yield and dividend rates, indicating potential investment opportunities [47]. Upcoming Events - A live session is scheduled to discuss market trends, leading stocks, and investment strategies in the current market environment [41].

Market Overview - Since 2010, the Hong Kong stock market has experienced four major uptrends, driven by factors such as liquidity easing and fundamental improvements, particularly in technology stocks[3] - The market has seen a narrowing of style differentiation since 2022, indicating increased difficulty in rotation strategies and shrinking profit margins[3] Investment Trends - Passive funds dominate the Hong Kong market, accounting for over 80% of funds focused on this market, with approximately 80% of these being industry-themed funds, primarily in technology[3] - Active funds are predominantly all-market funds, with 91% of them focusing on balanced allocations to adapt to market changes[3] Fund Performance - Active Hong Kong funds have shown significant excess returns during growth-dominant markets, particularly in technology and healthcare sectors, outperforming passive funds[3] - The average allocation of private equity funds to Hong Kong stocks has increased to 41.21% as of July 2025, reflecting a growing interest in undervalued opportunities[22] Risk Factors - Past performance of funds does not guarantee future results, and regulatory changes may impact the validity of research conclusions[3] Valuation Insights - As of August 22, 2025, the valuation percentile for the Hang Seng Technology Index is at 37%, significantly lower than the A-share technology sector, which is at 100%[21] - The premium of AH shares has decreased, with the Hang Seng-Hushen Connect AH premium at 125, indicating a relative premium for A-shares[21]

Core Insights - The total assets of the Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) market in Hong Kong increased by 1.8% to HKD 1.48 trillion as of the end of August [1] - There was a net inflow of HKD 2.02 billion into stock funds in August, while mixed asset funds and lower-risk assets experienced net outflows of HKD 150 million and HKD 1.87 billion, respectively [1] - A total of HKD 3 billion flowed into stock funds over July and August [1] Fund Inflows - The top five asset categories with the highest net inflows were "US Stock Funds," "Pre-set Investment Strategy - Core Accumulation Funds," "Hong Kong Stock Funds (Index Tracking)," "Global Stock Funds," and "Japanese Stock Funds" [1] - The US Stock Funds, DIS Core Funds, and Hong Kong Stock Funds (Index Tracking) have consistently been the top three categories for net inflows for two consecutive months, maintaining the same ranking as in July [1] Fund Outflows - The top five asset categories with the highest net outflows were "MPF Conservative Funds," "Mixed Asset Funds (80% to 100% Stocks)," "Guaranteed Funds," "Mixed Asset Funds (60% to 80% Stocks)," and "Other Stock Funds" [1] - The trend indicates a shift in investment attitudes, with members becoming more aggressive in their allocations towards stock funds [2] Market Sentiment - The investment sentiment has shifted positively, with members increasingly allocating funds to US and Hong Kong stock funds, reflecting a recovery in confidence towards the Hong Kong market influenced by the strong performance of the Hang Seng Index [2] - In August, US stock funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 920 million, indicating a gradual return to US stock funds after significant outflows earlier in the year [2] - Hong Kong stock funds (index tracking) saw a net inflow of HKD 820 million, suggesting a renewed confidence among members [2]