证券研究报告 多元资产配置系列之二： 低利率时代的FOF多元配置趋势与应用实践 证券分析师 郭子睿 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520070003 任书康 投资咨询资格编号：S1060525050001 陈 瑶 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120003 研究助理 胡心怡 一般从业资格编号：S1060124030069 2026年2月26日 高 越 一般从业资格编号：S1060124070014 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 投资要点 风险提示：历史业绩不代表未来表现；策略复杂性与成本风险；海外市场汇率风险；流动性风险。 1 发展背景与配置格局：（1）宏观背景：利率持续下行推动资产配置型产品需求抬升。存量产品来看，偏债型FOF通过债券打底、多资产增厚的策略，精准契合了当前市 场资金对于低波动、稳健收益的风险偏好，2025年偏债混合型FOF规模增长176%；增量产品来看，新发产品通过显性化的"多元"标签强化多元资产配置属性。（2）多 元配置格局：越来越多的FOF开始将黄金、商品、港股指数、全球股指纳入基准，香港市场为主的主动及被动基金、QDII权益/混合/债券基金、商品型基金、互认基金、 REITs、中性策略等 ...

Group 1 - The total assets of the Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) market increased by 3.6% to HKD 1.61 trillion as of January 31 [1] - Manulife leads the market with a 27.7% share, followed by HSBC at 18% and Sun Life at 10.9%, with the top five providers accounting for over 73.6% of the market [1] - In January, there was a net outflow of approximately HKD 580 million from equity funds, primarily from Hong Kong stock funds, while mixed asset funds saw a net inflow of about HKD 90 million [1] Group 2 - Fixed income funds experienced a net inflow of approximately HKD 490 million, mainly into conservative MPF funds [1] - The Hang Seng Index continued its strong performance from the previous year, rising about 6.8% in January, significantly outperforming European, American, and Japanese equity funds [1] - Despite the overall market rise, Hong Kong stock funds recorded a net outflow of around HKD 2.8 billion, indicating a trend of profit-taking or diversification among some investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The forum discussed how active equity can create excess returns, with insights from prominent fund managers on investment strategies in various sectors, particularly focusing on the cyclical growth opportunities in the energy metals sector and the evolving demand in the lithium battery supply chain [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Zhao Longlong emphasized the importance of supply-demand dynamics in identifying cyclical growth opportunities, particularly in the energy metals sector, where he noted a significant increase in physical consumption despite recent profitability challenges for some companies [1][5]. - The investment approach is simplified to supply-demand research, highlighting that while supply has been constrained due to low capital expenditure, demand has shifted significantly towards electric vehicles and renewable energy [5][8]. - The characteristics of companies that can navigate manufacturing cycles include having vision, capability, and the ability to keep pace with technological advancements [6][7]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, Zhao Longlong identified four key areas of focus: upstream resource products, manufacturing overseas, potential explosive AI applications, and a revaluation of the new energy sector [2][10][11]. - The lithium battery supply chain is expected to recover, with demand from energy storage likely to surpass that from electric vehicles in the coming years, marking a significant shift in the market [8][11]. - The energy metals sector is viewed positively due to limited new capacity additions and increasing demand, particularly in the context of electric vehicles and renewable energy [5][8].

Core Insights - GUM announced the 2025 MPF performance report, showing a comprehensive index increase of 16.7% to 286.4 points [1] - The average return per person exceeded HKD 45,000, more than double the total return for 2024, marking a record high [1] - The "Greater China Stock Fund" outperformed with an average return of 33.7% this year [1] Performance Summary - The GUM MPF Composite Index rose by 16.7% [1] - The GUM MPF Equity Fund Index increased by 23.7% [1] - The GUM MPF Mixed Asset Fund Index also saw a rise of 16.7% [1] - The GUM MPF Fixed Income Fund Index grew by 3.3% [1] - The MPF has experienced four consecutive quarters of growth and three years of annual increases [1] Future Outlook - GUM's Chief Investment Officer, Liu Jia-hong, highlighted global equity funds as worthy of attention for 2026 [1] - There is an expectation of a gradual weakening of the HKD against non-HKD assets, which may enhance overall return potential [1] - Investment strategies for 2026 should focus on balanced allocation, global perspectives, and risk management to address potential volatility [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant gains during the holiday, with notable increases in major stocks such as China Aviation Industry Corporation (6.80%), Alibaba (4.34%), and Tencent (4.01%) [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 4.00%, reflecting a positive sentiment in the technology sector [1] - The reasons behind the surge in stock prices are varied and not elaborated upon in detail [1] Group 2 - Due to the A-share market being closed, Hong Kong ETFs did not trade, resulting in a zero change in their valuations for the day [2] - The gains from the Hong Kong stocks will be reflected in the net asset value of Hong Kong funds on January 5, when the A-share market reopens [2] - For example, if the Hang Seng Technology Index rises by 1% on January 5, the total gain for the fund would be 5%, while a 2% drop would reduce the gain to 2% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent pullback in the Hong Kong stock market is primarily driven by short-term factors, while the fundamental outlook remains stable, presenting better value for investment in technology and dividend sectors, with a focus on core assets for medium to long-term allocation [2][4][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a decline of nearly 5% in the Hang Seng Index and close to 15% in the Hang Seng Tech Index since October [2]. - Factors contributing to the market pullback include fluctuations in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, concerns over valuation bubbles in the AI sector, and seasonal liquidity pressures as year-end approaches [4][5]. - Despite the market's volatility, there has been a continuous inflow of capital from mainland investors, indicating a strong long-term allocation interest in Hong Kong stocks [5] . Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The current market adjustment has made Hong Kong stocks more attractive in terms of valuation, with a favorable window for investment emerging [6][7]. - Key sectors identified for investment include healthcare, technology, cyclical stocks benefiting from supply-demand changes, and dividend-paying stocks that align with insurance capital investment strategies [10][11]. - The healthcare sector is expected to benefit from policy support for innovative drugs, while the technology sector is poised for growth driven by AI applications and favorable monetary policy [10][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, the Hong Kong stock market is anticipated to experience a dual boost from improved fundamentals and valuations, supported by domestic policies and external monetary easing from major economies [7]. - The AI trend is expected to continue driving growth in the technology sector, with significant upside potential for quality blue-chip stocks in the internet and healthcare domains [10][11].

Group 1 - The core driving factors for the continuous growth of Hong Kong stock funds are identified as the "valuation gap" effect, structural advantages, and the increasing attractiveness of Chinese assets [2][3] - The Hang Seng Index's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 11.97 times, significantly lower than major global indices like Germany's DAX (18.44 times) and the UK's FTSE 100 (20.23 times), indicating a favorable valuation for investors [2] - The dividend yield of Hong Kong stocks stands at 3.05%, which is more attractive compared to the S&P 500's 1.11%, further enhancing the appeal of Hong Kong stocks [2] Group 2 - Hong Kong's stock market offers a dual allocation strategy, catering to both defensive and growth needs, with blue-chip stocks providing around 6% dividend yield for defensive positioning and sectors like technology, biomedicine, and new consumption representing growth opportunities [2][3] - The market is seen as a key platform for high-quality Chinese enterprises, attracting both domestic and foreign investments, especially as China's economy recovers and the high-tech sector continues to innovate [2][3] - Key investment areas in the Hong Kong market include high-dividend stocks, technology internet, biomedicine, and new consumption, which are gaining attention from investors seeking stable returns and growth potential [3]

Industry News - New regulations for investor suitability management are being introduced, with the China Securities Investment Fund Industry Association releasing a draft for public consultation. The draft aims to refine and standardize the suitability management practices of fund managers and sales institutions, focusing on risk assessment frequency, fund risk classification, and special protections for investors over 65 years old [1] Product Dynamics - Two public fund companies, Huaxia Fund and E Fund, have entered the global top twenty ETF providers, ranking 18th and 19th respectively. Huaxia Fund first made the list in 2023 and has since improved its position [3] - The total scale of actively managed equity funds has reached 1410.68 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 132.25%, as 276 new funds were established this year [4] - The bond ETF market has expanded significantly, with the total scale reaching 7062.9 billion yuan, marking a new historical high [5] - The cross-border ETF market has also seen growth, with a total scale of 9136.77 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 115.36% [6] - The scale of Hong Kong stock funds has surpassed 1 trillion yuan, indicating significant expansion in this sector [7] - The number of newly launched funds this year has reached a three-year high, with over 1300 new funds expected to be issued [8] Institutional Dynamics - Nearly 100 funds have issued warnings for potential liquidation, with 93 funds reporting such alerts in the past month [10][11] - Anxin Fund has been granted QDII business qualifications, becoming the first fund company to receive this license this year, bringing the total number of licensed QDII fund companies to 56 [12] - Ping An Fund has added Beijing Chuangjin Qifu as a sales institution, allowing investors to manage various fund-related transactions through this new channel [13]

Group 1: FOF Funds and QDII Growth - FOF funds have seen a significant increase in fundraising, with one new fund raising nearly 1.8 billion yuan, marking a 400% increase compared to the entire year of 2024 [1] - The total scale of FOF funds has surpassed 200 billion yuan this year, although it remains small compared to the overall fund market of over 36 trillion yuan [1] - QDII funds have also experienced rapid growth, with total shares reaching approximately 680.97 billion, up from about 571.12 billion in the previous quarter, indicating a net subscription of 109.8 billion [1] - The highest annual return for QDII funds has reached 121.70%, attracting more attention from investors [1] Group 2: Hong Kong Fund Growth and Market Dynamics - The scale of Hong Kong funds has exceeded 1 trillion yuan, driven by increased investment enthusiasm [2] - The total shares of the Hang Seng Technology ETF have grown by 32.53 billion from October 1 to November 12 [2] - The concentration of holdings in Hong Kong funds has increased, which may lead to significant fluctuations in net value during the year-end market rebalancing phase [2] Group 3: Gold Investment Trends - Banks have raised the minimum investment threshold for gold savings to 1,500 yuan, the highest in history, following a rise in international gold prices [3] - The adjustment in investment thresholds reflects a growing concern over risks associated with gold price volatility [3] Group 4: A-Share Company Dividends - As of November 12, 37 A-share companies have completed their third-quarter dividend distributions, totaling over 6.3 billion yuan [4] - The increase in cash dividends is attributed to regulatory guidance and improved corporate earnings, transforming dividends from optional to feasible strategies for more companies [4] Group 5: Human-shaped Robot Industry Outlook - The human-shaped robot industry is expected to experience a significant breakthrough in 2026, likened to the "iPhone moment" for the sector [5] - Companies involved in the human-shaped robot supply chain are anticipated to benefit from the upcoming mass production era [5] Group 6: AI in Animation and Drama Industry - The animation and drama sector has seen a surge, with over 3,000 new works launched in the first half of the year, resulting in a 12-fold increase in revenue [6] - The market size for this sector is projected to exceed 20 billion yuan this year, driven by the impact of AI technology [6] Group 7: Internet Companies and Payment Licenses - Internet companies have been actively increasing capital for their payment subsidiaries, with significant increases reported by companies like Douyin and Tencent [7] - The regulatory environment has prompted these companies to enhance compliance and expand into high-capital businesses such as cross-border payments [7] Group 8: Global Wine Production Trends - Global wine production is expected to see a slight increase in 2025, but it will remain below average levels due to extreme weather conditions [8] - The forecasted production for 2025 is approximately 23.2 billion liters, a 3% increase from 2024, which recorded the lowest production since 1961 [8] Group 9: Corporate Management Changes - Several companies, including Keg Precision Machinery and Haowei Group, have undergone significant management changes, with new appointments and resignations [9][10] - These changes may impact company operations and strategic direction moving forward [9][10] Group 10: Financial Performance of Retail Companies - Gaoxin Retail reported a revenue of 30.5 billion yuan for the first half of the fiscal year, a decrease of 12.12%, resulting in a net loss of 1.23 billion yuan [11] - The decline in revenue is attributed to intensified market competition and consumer fatigue [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the enthusiasm for investing in Hong Kong stocks is driving the continuous expansion of Hong Kong stock fund sizes, with a notable increase in passive funds [1][2] - As of the end of the third quarter, the total size of Hong Kong stock funds exceeded 1 trillion RMB, reaching 1,033.008 billion RMB, a significant increase of 67.98% compared to the end of the second quarter [1] - The total number of fund shares reached 881.067 million, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 42% [1] Group 2 - Passive funds have become the main driver of size expansion, with the "Hong Kong Stock Connect - Index and Linked Funds" and "Hong Kong QDII - Index and Linked Funds" reaching sizes of 473.832 billion RMB and 383.554 billion RMB, respectively [2] - The "Hong Kong Stock Connect - Index and Linked Funds" saw a quarter-on-quarter growth of 93.37% in size and 70.32% in shares [2] Group 3 - As of the end of the third quarter, the stock position of Hong Kong stock funds increased by 0.75 percentage points to 92.71%, with nearly 80% of funds holding over 90% in stocks [3] - The technology and consumer sectors remain the primary focus for Hong Kong stock funds, with holdings accounting for 37% and 25.16% respectively [3] - The concentration of holdings is evident, with large-cap stocks (market value over 80 billion HKD) making up 93.94% of the total market value of the funds' top holdings, an increase of 4.05 percentage points from the previous quarter [3]