文 | 花生说科技，作者 | 李皙寅·花生，编辑 | 黑松 上天！上天！上天！ 地球总人口已突破80亿，当大多数人在"开好车、住大房、好工作、还要子女继承"的赛道里卷生卷死。 或许应该意识到人生是旷野，不用一条路走到底，选择可以足够得多。比如，没必要局限在资源有限的 地球上。 广袤宇宙中，藏着比地球多得多的资源与空间。如同大航海时代的探险家让世界真正联动起来。人类迈 向星海的每一步，都可能解锁全新的文明机遇。 当然，嘴上说的，不如手上做的，这种想象正逐渐贴近现实。 资本市场的真金白银给出了反馈：当SpaceX放出上市风声，产业链应声上涨、估值传闻从4000亿美元 飙至1.5万亿美元，这场狂欢的核心，全球资本对太空经济的热度越来越大。 SpaceX的估值飙升与上市计划，标志着全球商业航天产业正进入爆发期。 就像智能手机普及催生移动互联网生态，太空基础设施的完善，将催生太空旅游、在轨制造、太空数据 中心等全新经济形态。 这不，12月12日，大A再度飘红，商业航天板块领涨。比如给火箭造结构件的超捷股份周涨幅高达 39.03%，据说一周内接受了73家机构的调研，市场情绪可谓烈火烹油。（听花生说了这么久商业航 天，不知 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研究报告称，基于SpaceX验证的发射端垄断地位以及Starlink巨型星 座变现路径，A股商业航天的核心投资逻辑可总结为：拥抱千帆星座基建爆发期，锁定高壁垒组件卖水 人。从时间角度看，中国正处于类似SpaceX 2018-2020年的组网前夜。随着G60千帆与GW国网进入密 集发射期，卫星制造正从实验室定制向汽车流水线式生产转型。在液体可回收火箭技术完全成熟前，产 业链中最确定的Alpha收益来自高价值量、高准入壁垒的卫星核心单机与载荷。能提供通用化电源、通 信、姿控系统的配套商将率先兑现业绩。 成本壁垒：无可匹敌的可复用经济学。通过猎鹰9号的完全一级复用，SpaceX将航天发射从定制工艺品 变成了工业标准品。其内部发射边际成本已降至近1500万美元，在执行复用任务数量达到5次时毛利率 便可高达68%左右。这种成本结构使得SpaceX在面对波音、洛克希德·马丁等传统军工巨头时，拥有降 维打击的定价权。这种壁垒不是专利壁垒，而是制造与运营的规模效应壁垒，竞争对手即便造出了可回 收火箭，也无法复制SpaceX每年100+次发射所积累的数据与供应链效率。 制造壁垒：垂直整合与先进制 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The global satellite internet construction is accelerating, with Starlink leading the industry. By June 2025, Starlink has launched nearly 9,000 satellites, serving over 5 million users across more than 100 countries. The project is expected to generate over $8 billion in revenue in 2024 and potentially exceed $11 billion in 2025 [2][20]. - China's satellite internet is entering a rapid development phase, with plans for three satellite constellations. Recent leadership changes in satellite internet companies indicate a push for technological breakthroughs and business model innovations [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Global Satellite Internet Acceleration - By June 2025, Starlink has launched nearly 9,000 satellites, with a user base surpassing 5 million and revenue projections of over $8 billion in 2024 and $11 billion in 2025 [2][20]. - China's satellite internet has initiated the deployment of multiple satellite constellations, with significant advancements in satellite launches and leadership changes in key companies [2][3]. 2. Business Models: Direct-to-Cell and Laser Communication - The Direct-to-Cell (DTC) model is set for large-scale application, with China Telecom planning to promote satellite direct connection services extensively by 2024. By May 2025, over 30 direct connection models are expected to be released, with annual sales projected to exceed 16 million units [3]. - Laser communication technology is anticipated to become a standard in satellite internet, with significant advancements already demonstrated by private companies in China [3]. 3. Rocket Breakthroughs - China's private rocket companies are rapidly iterating technologies, with notable advancements in reusable rockets and liquid propulsion systems. For instance, Blue Arrow Aerospace's "Zhuque-3" rocket is designed to match SpaceX's Falcon 9 in payload capacity [4]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The commercial space sector in China is poised for rapid growth, with the satellite internet market expected to reach nearly 100 billion yuan in the next five years. The private rocket market is projected to exceed 30 billion yuan [4]. Key companies to watch include those in the private rocket supply chain and satellite internet communication payload suppliers [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growing importance of in-flight Wi-Fi services in the aviation industry, highlighting the competitive edge it provides to airlines in attracting modern travelers who prioritize connectivity during flights [14][23][24]. Group 1: Current State of In-Flight Wi-Fi - Only about 6% of aircraft in China currently support Wi-Fi services, making it a rare privilege for passengers [14]. - The experience of using in-flight Wi-Fi is often disappointing, with slow speeds and connectivity issues reported by passengers [8][12]. Group 2: Comparison with International Airlines - United Airlines has begun using Starlink technology to provide high-speed, low-latency internet on its flights, with positive feedback from passengers regarding the service [16][19]. - The article contrasts the service strategies of Chinese airlines, which rely on customer service, with American airlines that leverage technology to attract high-value customers [21][22]. Group 3: Future of In-Flight Connectivity - The introduction of Starlink represents a revolution in in-flight experience, allowing for seamless internet access comparable to ground services [26][27]. - The article emphasizes that the demand for reliable in-flight internet is driven by changing passenger expectations, where connectivity is seen as essential rather than a luxury [39][41]. Group 4: China's Satellite Internet Plans - China has initiated its own satellite internet project called "Qianfan Constellation," aiming to launch a network of satellites to provide in-flight connectivity, with plans to deploy 1,296 satellites by 2027 [57][58]. - Challenges remain in terms of cost, regulatory approvals, and airline willingness to invest in upgrading their fleets for in-flight Wi-Fi [63][66][68]. Group 5: Industry Implications - The competition for in-flight Wi-Fi services is expected to intensify, with airlines that can offer reliable and fast internet likely to attract more passengers, especially among younger and high-net-worth individuals [71][72]. - The article concludes that the future of in-flight connectivity will depend on the ability of airlines to provide a seamless and dependable internet experience, reflecting broader changes in consumer behavior and expectations [78][79].

Core Insights - The article discusses the growing importance of in-flight Wi-Fi services in the airline industry, highlighting the disparity between Chinese and American airlines in providing reliable internet access to passengers [12][20][42]. Group 1: In-Flight Wi-Fi Services - Currently, only about 6% of aircraft in China support Wi-Fi services, making it a rare privilege for passengers [10]. - United Airlines has begun using Starlink technology to provide high-speed, low-latency internet on its flights, with positive feedback from passengers regarding the service [12][13]. - The article emphasizes that in-flight Wi-Fi has become a new competitive weapon for airlines, with faster internet attracting passengers who require constant connectivity [17][18]. Group 2: Passenger Expectations - Modern passengers expect uninterrupted internet access during flights, reflecting a shift in lifestyle where being "offline" is increasingly uncomfortable [30][41]. - The need for reliable internet is particularly crucial for business travelers and those who engage in online activities during flights [40][41]. - The article suggests that airlines that can meet these connectivity demands will have a competitive advantage in the future [42]. Group 3: Technological Developments - Starlink's low Earth orbit satellite network offers faster speeds and lower latency compared to traditional satellite systems, making it a viable option for airlines [44]. - China's own satellite internet initiative, "Qianfan Constellation," aims to launch a significant number of satellites by 2030, potentially providing a domestic solution for in-flight internet [49][50]. - However, challenges such as high costs, regulatory hurdles, and the willingness of airlines to invest in these technologies remain significant obstacles [53][56][57]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article concludes that the future of in-flight connectivity will depend on the ability of airlines to provide stable, affordable, and widespread internet access [63]. - The shift towards reliable in-flight Wi-Fi is not just a technological upgrade but a necessary evolution to meet changing consumer expectations [64][65].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump expresses strong admiration for Elon Musk, highlighting his contributions to the 2024 election and the efficiency of the Department of Government Operations (DOGE) since 2025 [1] Group 1 - Musk is expected to shift most of his focus from his advisory role at DOGE to the operations of Tesla [1] - Certain Republican members are perceived to be unfair towards Musk [1] - Trump praises Musk's work in the areas of Starlink and healthcare [1]