半导体设备行业在未来几年有哪些值得关注的投资机会？ 半导体设备行业在未来几年有两个主要的投资方向。首先是前道晶圆制成领域， 预计 2026 年下游会有较大的资本开支，尤其是存储厂和先进逻辑厂的扩产， 包括先进制程和成熟制程。这将带动刻蚀、薄膜沉积等设备订单的大幅增长。 保守估计，这些设备公司的新签订单增速将在 20%~30%左右，中性偏乐观估 计可达 40%~50%。其次是国产 AI 算力相关的测试机和先进封装设备投资机 会。许多芯片设计企业并不会直接购买前道的薄膜沉积和刻蚀设备，而是更倾 向于购买测试机。因此，华丰、长川、脉维等公司在这一领域具有较大的发展 下游资本开支上行&国产化率提升，看好半导体设备新机遇 20260106 Q&A 全球半导体设备市场预计在 2025 年达到 1,330 亿美元，同比增长 14%，主要由前道晶圆制成驱动，2026 年达 1,450 亿美元，同比增长 10%，AI、先进逻辑存储和先进封装是主要驱动力，2027 年将进一步 提升至 1,560 亿美元。 中国大陆在全球半导体设备市场中占据重要地位，预计 2025 年三四季 度占比将超过 40%，并在 2026 年维持 30%~ ...

Market Overview - On January 5, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.38%, the CSI 300 increased by 1.9%, the STAR 50 surged by 4.41%, the CSI 1000 climbed by 2.09%, the ChiNext Index went up by 2.85%, and the Hang Seng Index slightly increased by 0.03% [4][5] - The best-performing sectors on January 5 were Media (+4.12%), Pharmaceutical and Biological (+3.85%), Electronics (+3.69%), Non-Bank Financials (+3.14%), and Computers (+2.71%). The worst-performing sectors included Oil and Petrochemicals (-1.29%), Banks (-0.34%), Transportation (-0.3%), and Retail (-0.17%) [5] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on January 5 was 25,672 billion, with a net inflow of 18.723 billion HKD from southbound funds [5] Key Insights - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to see a significant increase in capital expenditure and an acceleration in domestic production rates, leading to a positive outlook for orders in the semiconductor equipment segment [6][7] - Four major growth directions are highlighted: 1. AI-driven storage supercycle focusing on etching and thin-film equipment leaders 2. Dawn of domestic photolithography machine production, emphasizing core subsystems and components 3. Evolution of cutting-edge technologies, with ALD equipment entering a golden development period 4. Advanced packaging continuing the Moore's Law, with substantial room for equipment localization [7] - The driving factors include accelerated capital expenditure from domestic wafer fabs and higher-than-expected domestic production rates [7] Investment Opportunities - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for AI applications, marking the beginning of a significant growth phase in the sector [8] - The convergence of application, computing power, and capital is expected to trigger a "flywheel" effect in embodied intelligence [8]

证券研究报告 AI驱动新成长，自主可控大时代 ——2026年半导体设备行业策略报告 行业评级：看好 2026年1月4日 | 分析师 | 邱世梁 | 王华君 | 王一帆 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | qiushiliang@stocke.com.cn | wanghuajun@stocke.com.cn | wangyifan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230520050001 | S1230520080005 | S1230523120007 | 半导体设备：AI驱动新成长，自主可控大时代 ◼ 2025行业复盘：跑赢大盘，持续增长 2025年至今，半导体设备指数显著跑赢大盘，当前估值处于28%分位点。 2025年前道设备营收持续高增长，利润增速结构性放缓；后道设备迎来爆发式增长，净利率显著提升，行业呈现高景气态势。 ◼ 2026行业展望：半导体行业景气度高，先进逻辑存储扩产共振 半导体行业景气度高：AI驱动下，2025年全球半导体市场创历史新高，预计2026年将继续增长9%至7607亿美元。 中国半导体设备市场：国内晶圆厂产能利用率回升扩 ...

芯源微围绕前道涂胶显影、前道单片清洗、后道先进封装三大主赛道。新一代架构涂胶显影机26 年可 在客户端看到整体表现；化学清洗瞄准超临界和高温硫酸两款高端机台实现卡位；高端封装设备聚焦热 压键合技术。 在控股股东北方华创的赋能下，公司有望实现业绩高速增长。 涂胶显影：公司目前系国内唯一可提供量产型前道涂胶显影机的厂商，产品涵盖offline、I-line、KrF、 ArF 浸没式等多种工艺类型。新一代超高产能涂胶显影机架构FT Alkaid 具有高产能、高稳定性、高可 靠性、高度集成化和智能化等多项核心优势，机台采用六层对称架构，中间布局高效的晶圆传输模组作 为连接枢纽，并设计高效冷盘塔连接模块，在调度上应用多层并行进片回片模式，可匹配未来更先进的 光刻机产能提升需求。该机型有望明年在客户端看到整体表现。 单片清洗：前道物理清洗设备已达到国际先进水平，成功实现国产替代。 前道化学清洗设备聚焦先进制程，持续推进高温硫酸、超临界等高端机台的验证及产业化，前三季度签 单同比数倍增长。芯源微已成为国内首个通过高温硫酸清洗工艺验证并获得重复订单的企业，超临界机 台已陆续向多家客户发出样机开展工艺验证。战略性新产品前道化学 ...

（文/集邦化合物半导体整理） 图片来源：芯联资本 在碳化硅领域，硅酷科技瞄准"高精密"器件贴合工艺，开辟碳化硅领域"领先路径"，历经三年打磨核心产品碳化硅银烧结设备，目前已成功为比亚迪、理 想、蔚来、华为等主流车企提供超百套设备，生产碳化硅功率半导体器件（芯片）超过十万颗，量产能力业内领先，出货量位居全国之首，成为该细分领 域"单项冠军"，年度营收实现三倍跃升，获得发明专利超十项。 芯联资本作为投资方之一，背靠新能源芯片与系统代工领军企业芯联集成，硅酷科技是芯联集成功率模块贴片机重要供应商，双方在IGBT/SiC功率模块 贴片机领域已形成全面深入的合作。芯联资本表示，参与硅酷科技本轮融资，体现出双方对彼此业务协同合作的高度认可和持续深入合作的意愿，未来双 方将进一步深化合作关系，共同助力半导体关键封装设备国产替代，构建自主可控产业链。 近日，珠海市硅酷科技有限公司（以下简称"硅酷科技"）宣布完成数亿元战略融资。本轮融资由安芯投资、芯联资本、华泰紫金、国投创合、众为资本等 多家知名投资机构联合参与，资金将重点用于碳化硅（SiC）预烧结键合设备批量交付、先进封装（如HBM）设备商业化推进，以及高端产能扩张与全球 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor equipment sector is experiencing a high prosperity cycle driven by self-controllable policies and AI technology, with the semiconductor equipment index rising by 57.28% this year [3]. Investment Strategy - The investment framework is divided into three levels: industry prosperity cycle (40%-50% weight), company fundamentals (30%-40% weight), and valuation level [4][5]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is entering a high growth phase, transitioning from 0 to 1 to 1 to 10, making it an ideal investment opportunity [4]. Market Dynamics - The core logic of the self-controllable direction is the increase in domestic production rates combined with demand-driven long-term high growth [6]. - Domestic semiconductor equipment and materials manufacturers are benefiting from the continuous expansion of downstream wafer fabs, providing significant growth space [6]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is currently in the early to mid-stage of high-speed growth, supported by both domestic policies and increasing demand for high-end equipment from wafer fabs [6]. Emerging Opportunities - Advanced packaging is also viewed positively, as it becomes crucial for enhancing chip performance amid the slowdown of Moore's Law, with AI driving related demand [7]. - The investment landscape is characterized by a historic opportunity driven by domestic substitution and AI, with domestic self-controllable processes deepening and being less affected by global economic cycles [8]. Future Outlook - The semiconductor industry is expected to see significant improvements in penetration and domestic production rates over the next three years, maintaining high growth rates [6]. - Companies successfully positioned in the AI supply chain are anticipated to gain global competitiveness, opening up larger development spaces [8]. - Caution is advised regarding stocks that rely heavily on price rebounds, particularly in the storage chip sector, where significant price increases have already occurred [9].

Core Insights - The semiconductor equipment sector is experiencing a high prosperity cycle driven by self-controllable policies and AI technology, with a year-to-date increase of 57.28% in the semiconductor equipment index [1] - Continuous support for self-controllable policies and strong demand from AI and emerging applications are expected to inject robust growth momentum into the domestic advanced process semiconductor chip industry chain from Q4 this year to next year [1] Investment Framework - The investment framework is divided into three levels: industry prosperity cycle (40%-50% weight), company fundamentals (30%-40% weight), and valuation level [2][3] - The semiconductor equipment sector has completed the initial breakthrough and is entering a high-speed growth phase, making it an ideal investment opportunity [2] Growth Drivers - The semiconductor equipment sector is in the early to mid-stage of high-speed growth, benefiting from dual positive drivers: ongoing support for self-controllable policies and increasing demand for mid-to-high-end equipment from large wafer fabs [4] - The recent price increases and shortages in the memory sector are expected to boost capital expenditures, driving demand for etching, thin film deposition, and advanced packaging equipment [4] Future Outlook - The semiconductor self-controllable sector is anticipated to enter a critical breakthrough period over the next three years, with significant improvements in penetration and domestic production rates [5] - The advanced packaging field is also favored, as it becomes a key path for enhancing chip performance amid the slowdown of Moore's Law [5] Investment Opportunities - The investment landscape is characterized by the historical opportunity presented by domestic substitution and AI-driven growth [6] - Companies successfully positioned within the AI industry chain are expected to gain global competitiveness, with a focus on those benefiting from both domestic production rate increases and global competition [6] Market Considerations - Caution is advised for stocks heavily reliant on price rebounds, particularly in the DRAM sector, where prices have more than doubled compared to the end of last year [7]

Group 1 - Zhang Guoqing emphasized the need for state-owned enterprises to enhance independent innovation capabilities and integrate technological and industrial innovation to cultivate new productive forces and competitive advantages [2] - The focus is on increasing R&D investment in basic research and accelerating the layout and construction of original technology sources, aiming for breakthroughs in key core technologies and frontier technologies [2] - State-owned enterprises are encouraged to collaborate with universities, research institutions, and private enterprises to address technological challenges and build innovation platforms [2] Group 2 - The signing of the "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Free Trade Zone Full Industry Chain Collaborative Innovation Action Plan" marks a significant step in collaborative innovation across three regions, focusing on advanced manufacturing, digital economy, and modern logistics [3] - Tianjin will lead the collaborative innovation in advanced manufacturing, Beijing in digital economy, and Hebei in modern logistics, leveraging their respective functional positions [3] Group 3 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology forecasts that China's AI toy market will grow to 29 billion yuan by 2025, up from approximately 24.6 billion yuan in 2024 [5] - The rise in AI toys is attributed to advancements in materials, processes, and technologies, enhancing product quality and variety, with a notable trend towards interactive and intelligent toys [5] Group 4 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to develop an implementation plan to promote the adaptation of supply and demand in consumer goods, encouraging toy companies to leverage AI technology to create new demands [6] - The focus will also be on product innovation and ensuring data and network security for AI toys, with the aim of integrating traditional culture into toy design [6] Group 5 - The State Administration for Market Regulation aims to effectively address quality safety hazards in children's and student products by 2027, enhancing safety levels through stringent quality supervision and compliance with national standards [7] - The initiative includes increased oversight of toy production and a focus on online sales channels to ensure compliance with safety standards [7] Group 6 - The Hong Kong Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau and Shenzhen's local financial management authority are exploring mechanisms for cross-border financial data flow, aiming to enhance cooperation in financial technology [8] - This initiative includes the development of a cross-border credit verification platform to assist enterprises in reducing financing costs [8] Group 7 - The Dutch government has suspended an administrative order against Anshi Semiconductor, returning control of the company to its Chinese owners, which may impact the semiconductor market dynamics [10] - Counterpoint Research predicts a 50% increase in memory prices by the second quarter of 2026 due to a shortage of key chips, particularly affecting traditional LPDDR4 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for advanced packaging is expanding, and the company expects to maintain a positive growth trend in this area in the coming year [1] Group 1: Company Performance - In the third quarter of this year, the company's advanced packaging equipment performed well [1] - The company has introduced several core devices in the panel-level advanced packaging sector, including electroplating, edge wet etching, and negative pressure cleaning [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - Panel-level packaging is expected to become one of the industry trends [1] - The company plans to continue launching similar products in the future [1]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the advanced packaging equipment industry is entering a golden era driven by the AI wave and domestic substitution, with significant growth opportunities arising from the demand for advanced packaging technologies [1][8]. - The global advanced packaging market is projected to grow from $46 billion in 2024 to $79.4 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37% for 2.5D/3D packaging technologies from 2023 to 2029 [7][8]. - The Chinese semiconductor packaging equipment market is expected to reach a sales revenue of 28.27 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 18.93% year-on-year growth [12]. Group 2 - The article discusses the rapid development of domestic semiconductor packaging equipment manufacturers in China, such as North Huachuang and Shengmei Shanghai, amidst a competitive landscape dominated by international giants [8][9]. - The demand for advanced packaging technologies is driven by the need for high-density integration and improved chip performance, particularly in AI models, data centers, and high-end consumer electronics [7][8]. - The article highlights the evolution of bonding technologies, with a significant shift towards advanced techniques that enhance integration density and performance, such as hybrid bonding and laser debonding [13][16]. Group 3 - The article outlines the critical role of various semiconductor equipment types, including thinning machines, dicing machines, and die bonders, in the advanced packaging process, emphasizing the need for precision and efficiency [27][28]. - It notes that the laser cutting technology is gaining traction due to its advantages in energy efficiency and adaptability to complex packaging requirements, with the global wafer cutting equipment market expected to grow significantly [26]. - The article also mentions the importance of surface functionalization technologies in enhancing the performance of advanced packaging, particularly in applications like chip-on-wafer and fan-out packaging [35][39].