业内普遍认为，黄仁勋的警告本质上揭开了全球半导体产业的"算力军备赛"序幕。当AI芯片的需求迫使 台积电在十年内完成"自我复制"，整个供应链的重构已不可避免。从设备厂商的技术迭代到材料企业的 产能爬坡，从封装测试环节的效率提升到全球产能布局的战略调整，每一个环节的竞争都将决定企业能 否分享AI算力时代最确定的十年红利。这场由算力需求引发的产能革命，不仅将重塑台积电的全球制 造版图，更将改写全球半导体产业的竞争规则，而那些能够率先抓住机遇的企业，终将在这场生死竞速 中占据先机。 声明：本文仅为信息交流之用，不构成任何投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 当AI大模型的参数向着万亿级狂飙，半导体产业的产能天花板正被骤然击穿。2026年1月31日晚，英伟 达CEO黄仁勋在台北"兆元宴"后的临时记者会上，半开玩笑且语气坚定的向台积电发出扩产呼吁："为 满足英伟达一家对先进制程晶圆的爆发式需求，台积电必须全力以赴扩产"。黄仁勋进一步预判："未来 十年台积电的产能可能会成长超过 100%，是非常显著的规模扩张，是人类史上最大规模的基础设施投 资，而光是为英伟达的需求就得翻倍。" 黄仁勋指出，当前AI训练与推理芯片的硅片消耗速 ...

❖ 评论： 证 券 研 究 报 告 KLA（KLAC）FY26Q2 业绩点评及业绩说明会纪要 CY2025 营收创新高，2026 年锁定 WFE 份额 提升+先进封装双轮驱动 ❖ 事项： 2026 年 1 月 30 日 KLA 发布 FY26Q2 报告，并召开业绩说明会。公司财务季 度 FY26Q2 截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，即自然季度 CY2025Q4。CY25Q4，公司 实现营收 32.97 亿美元，同比增长 7%，环比增长 3%；Non-GAAP 毛利率 62.6%。 CY 2025 全年，公司实现营收 127.4 亿美元，同比增长 17%。Non-GAAP 毛利 率 62.8%。 1. 业绩情况：CY2025Q4（FY2026Q2），KLA 实现营收 32.97 亿美元，同比增 长 7%，环比增长 3%，高于指导范围中值（32.25±1.5 亿美元）。Non-GAAP 毛 利率 62.6%，高于指导范围中值（62%±1pct），主要受益于服务业务表现超预 期及制造效率提升。 CY2025 全年，KLA 实现营收 127.4 亿美元，同比增长 17%。Non-GAAP 毛利 率 62.8% ...

Core Viewpoint - KLA Corporation (NASDAQ: KLAC) reported strong financial results for FY26Q2 (CY25Q4), with revenue of $3.297 billion, a year-over-year increase of 7.15% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.71%, indicating a solid performance in the semiconductor process control market [2][11]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a record annual revenue of $12.745 billion for 2025, representing a 17% growth compared to 2024, with 70% of this growth driven by investments in advanced logic, high bandwidth memory (HBM), and DRAM [2][12]. - The gross margin for Q4 was 62.6%, up 0.9 percentage points year-over-year and 0.1 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, exceeding the guidance midpoint of 62% [2][11]. - Free cash flow reached $4.4 billion for 2025, a 30% increase year-over-year, with $3 billion returned to shareholders through dividends and stock buybacks [11]. Segment Performance - Semiconductor process control revenue was $3.005 billion in Q4, up 9.07% year-over-year and 3.62% quarter-over-quarter, accounting for 91.1% of total revenue [3][8]. - Revenue from specialty semiconductor process decreased by 12.5% year-over-year but increased by 16.67% quarter-over-quarter, contributing 4.2% to total revenue [3][8]. - PCB and component inspection revenue was $152 million, down 5.59% year-over-year and down 20% quarter-over-quarter, representing 4.6% of total revenue [3][8]. Product Breakdown - Wafer inspection revenue was $1.573 billion, a slight increase of 1% year-over-year and 2% quarter-over-quarter, making up 47.7% of total revenue [9]. - Service revenue reached $786 million, up 18% year-over-year and 6% quarter-over-quarter, contributing 24% to total revenue [9]. - Revenue from advanced packaging grew significantly, with total system revenue for 2025 estimated at $950 million, reflecting over 70% year-over-year growth [12]. Market Outlook - For Q1 2026, KLA expects revenue of $3.35 billion, with a gross margin guidance of 60.75%-62.75%, indicating a slight decrease compared to the previous year due to rising DRAM costs [4][15]. - The WFE market is projected to grow at a high single-digit to low double-digit percentage, reaching approximately $120 billion, with the Chinese market expected to see moderate growth [5][14]. - The advanced packaging market is anticipated to grow to around $12 billion, with a similar growth rate, contributing to an overall market size of approximately $135 billion [5][14]. Regional Performance - Revenue from mainland China was $989 million, down 10.7% year-over-year and 21% quarter-over-quarter, accounting for 30% of total revenue [3][9]. - Taiwan's revenue was $857 million, down 3.9% year-over-year but up 6.8% quarter-over-quarter, representing 26% of total revenue [3][9]. - South Korea saw a revenue increase of 25% year-over-year and 59.8% quarter-over-quarter, contributing 14% to total revenue [3][9].

Core Insights - Jiangsu province achieved a historic best performance in the 14th China Innovation and Entrepreneurship Competition, with 16 companies winning awards, accounting for 35.6% of the national total, and 5 out of 10 finalists being from Jiangsu [1][2][3] Group 1: Award-Winning Companies - Suzhou Yilong Micro Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. won the gold medal in the growth enterprise category, focusing on the development of photonic chips for optical communication, with a new chip that offers 2-4 times the speed of current mainstream chips [1] - Suzhou Yuanxiang Micro Technology Co., Ltd. developed a surface dynamic electron microscope for atomic-level defect detection in semiconductor manufacturing, utilizing self-developed technology for non-destructive testing [2] - Suzhou Pairui Biotechnology Co., Ltd. is developing innovative RNA-modifying drugs for cancer treatment, currently conducting Phase II clinical trials in 11 hospitals [2] - Liyang Zhongke Guneng New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. focuses on the development of sulfide solid electrolyte materials for all-solid-state batteries, achieving a 90% reduction in material degradation rate [2][3] Group 2: Technological Innovations - Tianrui Technology (Nantong) Co., Ltd. developed the world's only industrialized non-iridium proton membrane electrolysis catalyst, reducing costs to one-tenth of traditional catalysts [3] - The 16 award-winning companies from Jiangsu collectively hold 302 patents, showcasing their innovative capabilities and contributions to industry development [3] Group 3: Entrepreneurial Ecosystem - The average age of leaders from the 1064 companies that reached the national finals is 41, with a significant number holding advanced degrees and international experience [4] - Companies like Guokewachuang and Yuanxiang Micro have rapidly transitioned from laboratory prototypes to industrial-grade products, demonstrating the importance of combining scientific and entrepreneurial expertise [5][6] - The Jiangsu province has a robust support system for startups, with initiatives that have facilitated over 900 billion yuan in financing and helped nearly 15% of award-winning companies to go public [6] Group 4: Future Development - Companies are optimistic about future growth, with plans for expansion and increased production capabilities, as seen in the recent facility expansions by Suzhou Yilong Micro [7] - The collaborative innovation ecosystem in Jiangsu is seen as a strong support for continuous development and leadership in technology [7]

Core Viewpoint - Thermo Fisher Scientific announced the acquisition of Clario for $8.875 billion, aiming to enhance its position in the life sciences sector and provide comprehensive solutions from laboratory to clinical settings [2]. Group 1: Industry Acquisition Landscape - The global scientific instrument industry has seen a surge in mergers and acquisitions, with major players acquiring key technologies for market expansion [3]. - Notable acquisitions include: - AMETEK acquiring FARO Technologies for $920 million to enhance precision measurement products [3]. - BD acquiring Edward's critical care division for $4.2 billion to expand its medical monitoring product line [3]. - Thermo Fisher Scientific's acquisition of Clario for $8.875 billion to strengthen its digital clinical capabilities [4]. Group 2: Strategic Directions of Acquisitions - Companies are focusing on technology integration and innovation acceleration through mergers, creating a cycle of "technology acquisition - integration - innovation - market expansion" [5]. - The life sciences sector is projected to reach a market size of $85 billion by 2028, with increasing demand for products like gene sequencers and PCR instruments [6]. - Semiconductor technology is becoming a hot topic for acquisitions, driven by geopolitical factors and the recovery of the global semiconductor industry [6]. - Digitalization and AI integration are key trends, with smart laboratory management systems improving efficiency by over 30% [6]. - Vertical integration and ecosystem building are strategies employed by leading companies like Danaher and Thermo Fisher to enhance supply chain security and customer loyalty [6]. Group 3: Emerging Trends and Market Directions - The shift from single equipment sales to system solutions and the transition from traditional technologies to intelligent and interdisciplinary integration are evident in the industry [7]. - Chinese domestic instrument companies are increasingly engaging in overseas acquisitions, marking a shift from price competition to a "domestic substitution + overseas acquisition" strategy [8]. - The capital market activity in the scientific instrument sector indicates a thriving industry, with AI-driven automation and emerging technologies like quantum sensing and MEMS leading product transformation [9]. - Future hot areas in the scientific instrument industry include life sciences and healthcare, semiconductors and high-end manufacturing, and environmental sustainability [9].

Core Viewpoint - KLA Corporation reported strong Q1 FY25 results, with revenue of $3.06 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 30% and a slight quarter-over-quarter decline of 0.4%, driven by advanced logic processes and HBM investments [1][2][6] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q1 FY25 was $3.06 billion, exceeding guidance midpoint, with a gross margin of 63%, also above guidance [1][6] - Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $8.41, while GAAP diluted EPS was $8.16, both near the upper limit of guidance [6][8] - Operating expenses were $575 million, lower than guidance by approximately $10 million, with an operating margin of 44.2% [9] Revenue Breakdown - Semiconductor process control revenue was $2.739 billion, up 31% year-over-year, accounting for 89% of total revenue [2][5] - Revenue from wafer inspection was $1.496 billion, a 51% increase year-over-year, representing 49% of total revenue [5][6] - Revenue from the service business was $669 million, reflecting a 13% year-over-year growth [8] Regional Performance - Revenue from mainland China was $793 million, down 20% year-over-year, while Taiwan's revenue surged by 128% to $988 million [2][6] - North America revenue was $294 million, up 19% year-over-year, indicating a stable performance in the region [2][6] Market Outlook - The company expects the WFE market to reach approximately $100 billion in 2025, with a projected revenue for Q2 FY25 between $2.925 billion and $3.225 billion [3][12] - Gross margin is anticipated to be around 62%-64% for Q2 FY25, with a quarterly impact of tariffs estimated at 1 percentage point [3][12] Strategic Insights - KLA's advanced packaging business is expected to grow significantly, with revenue projected to exceed $850 million in 2025 [7][12] - The company maintains a strong cash flow position, with free cash flow of $999 million for the quarter and a total of $3.5 billion over the past 12 months [8][10] Capital Return Strategy - KLA announced a 12% increase in quarterly dividends to $1.90 per share and authorized an additional $5 billion for stock repurchase, bringing the total authorization to $5.46 billion [11][12] Industry Position - KLA continues to lead in the WFE and process control markets, with a market share increase of nearly 250 basis points over the past five years [6][14] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for AI infrastructure and advanced semiconductor technologies [7][20]

Group 1 - The introduction of new wafer inspection equipment was made possible by funding from China Construction Bank (CCB), which has strengthened the company's confidence in becoming a provincial-level technology center [1] - The company, known as a "small giant" in electronic components, focuses on the research and development of semiconductor new materials, but faced significant funding challenges that hindered its growth [1] - CCB's Jinjiang branch provided timely financial support through its "Shanxin Loan" product, addressing the company's urgent need for liquidity and facilitating the smooth progress of its semiconductor research project [1] Group 2 - CCB's Jinjiang branch has established a comprehensive financial service system to address the financing difficulties faced by technology-based enterprises in the region, focusing on the "five full" service framework and "three specialized" support systems [2] - The branch has launched the first "semiconductor high-tech" specialty branch in the province, enhancing its financial product offerings to support companies in their product research and development [2] - The balance of technology loans at CCB has exceeded 6.7 billion yuan, representing a growth of over 40% since the beginning of the year, promoting a positive cycle among technology, industry, and finance [2]