智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，近日美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府依据IEEPA加征的对等关 税违法，随后特朗普宣布将依据《1974年贸易法》第122条临时加征10%的全球进口关税。该行认为再 通胀的风险依然较高，新税率和退税纷争使得政策不确定性有所抬升。市场预期美元和美债波动率暂时 走高但幅度有限，并且关注怎么打补丁。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 1、对等关税被推翻，补丁怎么打? 2月20日，美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府依据IEEPA加征的对等关税违法，随后特朗普在新闻发布会上 称，将依据《1974年贸易法》第122条临时加征10%的全球进口关税。 短期补丁：122临时关税。对等关税被裁定违法后，现行有效关税仅剩232和301关税，平均税率从 17.6%降至9%，短期内(150天)可靠122条款维持税率基本不变。中长期来看，232行业关税和301国别关 税将成为主要补丁。 中长期补丁：232和301关税。2025年232关税已经应用于汽车、钢铁、铝、铜、家具、卡车，年初添加 了半导体(但多数已豁免)。2025年已启动并正在调查的还有制药、飞机、关键矿产、无人机、风力涡轮 机、机器人和工业机械、多晶硅，多数可于 ...

Economic Outlook - The US economy is experiencing marginal slowdown, with a projected annualized GDP growth rate of 2%-2.5%[10] - The unemployment rate in the US is currently at 4.3%, showing signs of concern in the labor market[15] - In Europe, economic stability is observed due to continuous interest rate cuts, but structural issues persist, particularly in Germany[4] - Japan's economy remains stable, with consumer confidence improving, but faces challenges from US tariffs and yen appreciation[4] Asset Projections - US Treasury yields are expected to decline towards 3.5% as the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates[4] - The US dollar is projected to weaken due to divergent monetary policies among the US, Eurozone, and Japan[4] - Gold prices may face short-term correction pressure but have strong medium-term support due to fiscal debt and monetary easing[4] Fiscal Policy Impact - The "Big and Beautiful" fiscal plan is projected to increase the US federal deficit by approximately $2 trillion over five years and $3.4 trillion over ten years[19] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts a future deficit rate of 6.8%, up from a baseline of 5.8% due to the fiscal plan[23] - High deficit levels have led to increased government debt and rising interest pressures, with the average deficit rate since FY 2025 being 6.8%[28]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by Trump to impose a 100% tariff on China and export controls on key software is seen as a significant escalation in the US-China trade conflict, which could have profound implications for bilateral trade and the global trade system [1] Group 1: Tariff Revenue and Rates - Since the onset of the trade war, US tariff revenue has surged, becoming the fourth largest source of federal revenue, following individual income tax, social security tax, and corporate income tax [6] - From January to June 2025, the average tariff rate in the US increased from 2.2% to 8.9%, with a notable rise in April due to expanded tariffs on a global scale [8][14] - By August 2025, US tariff revenue reached $144.4 billion, 2.8 times that of the previous year, accounting for 4.0% of federal revenue, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [6] Group 2: Tariff Rates by Trade Partner - The actual average tariff rate imposed by the US on China reached 37.4% by June 2025, with significant increases observed for labor-intensive goods and products affected by Section 232 tariffs [24][29] - The average tariff rates for Japan and South Korea were 15.3% and 12.0%, respectively, while rates for the EU, Vietnam, and India ranged between 5% and 10% [24] - The US has seen a decline in its reliance on Chinese imports, with the share of imports from China dropping to 9.4% of total imports, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [28] Group 3: Trade Performance and Deficits - In the first seven months of 2025, US imports grew by 10.7% and exports by 4.8%, but the trade deficit expanded by 21.3% [19] - The US experienced a decline in trade volume with China and Canada, with imports from China down by 18.9% and exports down by 20.2% [19][20] - Despite high tariffs on China, the overall trade deficit with other countries has increased, indicating that the US still relies heavily on imports to meet domestic demand [20] Group 4: Future Tariff Trends - The actual tariff rates are expected to converge with nominal rates as various loopholes and exemptions are closed, leading to an increase in effective tariff rates across different economies [33][34] - Factors such as preemptive imports and exemptions for certain goods have contributed to the current lower effective tariff rates, but these are anticipated to diminish over time [33][35]