Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%, a decrease of 25 basis points[2] - This marks the first consecutive rate cut in a year, following the initial cut earlier this year[2] - The Fed will end its balance sheet reduction on December 1, after three and a half years of contraction, with total assets shrinking from $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion[4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with ADP reporting a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below the expected increase of 50,000[3] - The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was below expectations, alleviating concerns about inflation driven by tariffs[3] - The Fed's Beige Book indicated widespread low demand for labor across various regions and sectors[3] Group 3: Market Liquidity and Risks - Recent liquidity pressures in the money market have led to a rise in repo rates, with the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) reaching a high of 4.5%[5] - The total reserves in the banking system have fallen below $3 trillion, indicating a shift from "ample liquidity" to "tight liquidity"[5] - The Treasury's increased issuance of debt has withdrawn significant liquidity from the market, exacerbated by seasonal factors like tax payments[5] Group 4: Future Outlook - There is potential for another rate cut in December, but it is not guaranteed, as some officials advocate for a pause[6][7] - The uncertainty surrounding future rate cuts is heightened by the ongoing government shutdown and its impact on economic data availability[7] - The Fed's policy path in 2026 may depend heavily on economic and employment data trends, with an expected median rate of 3.4% indicating room for about two more cuts[8]

美联储缩表持续三年半后告终，12月起以短期国债替代到期MBS持仓。特朗普"钦点"理事米兰和上次一样主张降息50基点，另一票委施密德支持按兵不 动。决议声明新增指出，劳动力市场近期指标与政府关门前趋势相符，称就业下行风险"近几个月"增加。"新美联储通讯社"：联储继续努力防止近期就 业放缓的趋势恶化，经济数据缺失使未来利率走向变得扑朔迷离。 要点 ： 美联储连续两次降息25基点，行动符合市场预期。 美联储缩表持续三年半后告终，决定12月起以短期国债替代到期MBS持仓。 两名反对利率决议的FOMC票委中，特朗普"钦点"的新晋理事米兰和上次会议一样主张降息50基点，堪萨斯城联储主席施密德支持按兵不动。 和前两次会议一样，本次会上，美联储决策层依然没有就利率行动达成统一。包括美国总统特朗普"钦点"的新任理事米兰在内，两名FOMC委员投票反 对降息25个基点的决定，体现联储内部的分歧持续，不同于此前的是，这次在降息力度和是否继续行动上都出现了分歧。 美联储此次宣布从12月起结束缩表这一QT行动，但不算意外。两周前美联储主席鲍威尔已暗示将要停止缩表，称银行准备金仍充足，可能未来几个月 接近停止缩表所需水平。高盛、摩根大通等 ...