美联储宣布自本周五起每月购买400亿美元美国国库券，规模高于市场此前预期，此举旨在通过补充银 行体系准备金来缓解短端利率压力。这一举措立即引发华尔街各大行对2026年美债供给预测的全面修 正，并推动短端借贷成本普遍下行。除了新增的准备金管理操作(RMP)，美联储也将在12月通过机构债 到期再投资购买约144亿美元的国库券，以进一步加强对资金市场的支持。 策略师也指出，美联储比2019年更谨慎地管理准备金回归"充足"水平的阶段，体现出避免资金市场失序 的强烈意图。部分机构如RBC认为，此举"更像在吸收财政部发行量"，美联储与财政部实际上正在共同 处理资金市场的同一问题。 尽管流动性环境将改善，不少机构警告年末资金市场波动仍难避免。CIBC指出，12月的购债规模仍不 足以覆盖季末隔夜资金需求，因为银行通常会在年底收缩资产负债表，导致回购市场流动性趋紧。富国 银行也表示，美联储的积极操作虽能让市场"没那么动荡"，但并非万能药，短期内资金压力仍然存在。 根据SMBC日兴证券的分析，如果银行准备金在明年1月底前被推升至3万亿美元以上，SOFR利率将更 贴近准备金利率(IORB)，联邦基金利率可能因此下行约两个基点。不过 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%, a decrease of 25 basis points[2] - This marks the first consecutive rate cut in a year, following the initial cut earlier this year[2] - The Fed will end its balance sheet reduction on December 1, after three and a half years of contraction, with total assets shrinking from $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion[4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with ADP reporting a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below the expected increase of 50,000[3] - The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was below expectations, alleviating concerns about inflation driven by tariffs[3] - The Fed's Beige Book indicated widespread low demand for labor across various regions and sectors[3] Group 3: Market Liquidity and Risks - Recent liquidity pressures in the money market have led to a rise in repo rates, with the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) reaching a high of 4.5%[5] - The total reserves in the banking system have fallen below $3 trillion, indicating a shift from "ample liquidity" to "tight liquidity"[5] - The Treasury's increased issuance of debt has withdrawn significant liquidity from the market, exacerbated by seasonal factors like tax payments[5] Group 4: Future Outlook - There is potential for another rate cut in December, but it is not guaranteed, as some officials advocate for a pause[6][7] - The uncertainty surrounding future rate cuts is heightened by the ongoing government shutdown and its impact on economic data availability[7] - The Fed's policy path in 2026 may depend heavily on economic and employment data trends, with an expected median rate of 3.4% indicating room for about two more cuts[8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has ended its balance sheet reduction after three and a half years, replacing maturing MBS holdings with short-term Treasury securities starting in December [4][10]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second consecutive 25 basis point cut [5][6]. - The decision to cut rates was widely anticipated by the market, with a 99.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut prior to the announcement [6]. - There remains a division within the FOMC regarding the rate cuts, with two dissenting votes; one member advocated for a 50 basis point cut while another preferred to maintain the current rate [11][12]. Group 2: Balance Sheet Reduction - The Fed's balance sheet reduction, which began on June 1, 2022, will conclude on December 1, 2023, with a shift to reinvesting MBS principal payments into short-term Treasury securities [9][10]. - The Fed had previously reduced its monthly balance sheet reduction pace, indicating a cautious approach to liquidity in the market [7][9]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Recent labor market indicators align with trends observed before the government shutdown, with an acknowledgment of increased risks to employment in recent months [13][14]. - The statement reflects a shift in language regarding economic activity, indicating a slowdown in growth and a slight increase in unemployment, while inflation remains elevated [14][15].