Report Overview - The report reviews the weekly market conditions of the domestic futures market from February 2 - 6, 2026, covering various sectors including agriculture, black commodities, energy and chemicals, and financial futures [1]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed a mixed performance this week, with more declining varieties than rising ones in the commodity futures market. Different sectors were affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical events, and policy regulations [1]. Summary by Sector Agricultural Futures - **Corn**: The spot price had a narrow - range fluctuation, with the futures price rising 0.13% and closing at 2274 yuan/ton. Near - term, the spot market will be quiet due to the approaching Spring Festival, and the futures market is expected to trade within a wide range. The 2603 contract has support at 2250 and short - term pressure at 2280 [4]. - **Pig**: The spot price was weak, with the average price on the 6th at 11.96 yuan/kg. The futures price of the 2603 contract dropped 3.21% to 10860 yuan/ton. As the Spring Festival approaches, the average price hovers around 12 yuan/kg. Near - month short positions were suggested to take profits, and far - month short positions were to test the lower support [5][6]. - **Egg**: The egg price dropped sharply and then stabilized, with the Hebei Guantao price at 2.96 yuan/jin on the 6th. The futures price of the 2603 contract fell 3.26% to 2904 yuan/500KG. In the short term, the supply - strong and demand - weak situation may continue to pressure the price. Mid - term, the supply pressure is postponed. Previously held short positions were advised to take profits below 3000, and now it's mainly in a wait - and - see mode [6]. - **Jujube**: The Xinjiang jujube trees are in dormancy, and the Hebei market price is stable. The futures price was weakly oscillating. The supply pressure is the main factor suppressing the price, and the CJ605 contract is expected to seek historical low support. A bearish view is recommended for the medium - to - long - term [6]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar oscillated. The northern beet sugar production is nearly over, and the southern is in the peak season. After the Spring Festival stocking, there is no obvious positive support, but some overseas institutions' reduction of the 2026/27 global sugar surplus may boost the far - month price. It's expected to trade within a range next week [7]. - **Log**: The log futures market is complex. The downstream 3 - meter wood square price in Lanshan is rising, and radiation pine traders' quotes are firm. If the price transmission is smooth, the spot price may rise, and the futures market has some positive factors [7]. - **Apple**: The apple market is structurally differentiated. High - quality apples support the price in the long - term, while ordinary apples face sales pressure. Near the end of the Spring Festival, the market will continue to oscillate widely in the short - term [8]. - **Cotton**: Internationally, cotton supply is tightening, and demand is resilient. Brazilian exports are down, and Australian production is expected to decrease. US net signing and shipping volumes are stable. Domestically, the supply - demand pattern is stable, but demand is seasonally weakening. The Zhengzhou cotton main contract will oscillate between 14500 - 15000 yuan/ton before the Spring Festival [8]. Black Commodities - **Steel Products**: The supply of five major steel products decreased by 0.4% to 819.9 million tons, and the total inventory increased by 4.6% to 1337.75 million tons. Consumption decreased by 5.1%, with a significant drop in building materials and a slight increase in plates. The downstream winter - storage willingness is weak, and the price is expected to remain in the oscillation range before the Spring Festival, with 3050 as strong support for the rebar main contract [9][10]. - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments and arrivals increased. Domestic mine production decreased, and port inventories continued to accumulate. Iron water production remained stable, and steel mills' pre - holiday replenishment is almost over. The first support for the main contract is 750, the second is 730, and the first pressure is 800, the second is 830 [10]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures oscillated sharply. The supply is decreasing as coal mines close for the holiday, but Mongolian coal imports are high. Steel mills' pre - holiday replenishment is almost done, and the market is expected to oscillate within a range before the Spring Festival [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Affected by the geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the price fluctuated greatly. The US - Iran negotiation and the US manufacturing PMI affected the market sentiment. Before a conclusion on the US - Iran situation, the price is expected to oscillate upwards [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It was under pressure due to the decline of precious and non - ferrous metals and the strengthening of risk management by the exchange. With the approaching Spring Festival, long - position holders are more willing to close positions. It's expected to oscillate widely between 130,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and a short straddle option strategy can be considered [14]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory is decreasing, and Iranian plants are resuming production. The downstream olefin plant operating rate is low, and the inland market is mainly for inventory clearance. It will continue to oscillate within a range in the short - term [15]. - **Urea**: The seasonal demand is starting, and the upstream inventory pressure is reducing. However, the high - supply situation remains. The price is expected to oscillate strongly within a key range, and investors can wait for price corrections to enter the market [15][16]. - **Bottle Chips**: Affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the fluctuation of crude oil prices, the price followed the raw materials to oscillate widely. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the short - term. It's recommended to operate lightly within the 6100 - 6450 yuan/ton range [16]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber oscillated weakly, with cost support from raw materials but weakening demand due to the approaching holiday. Synthetic rubber's BR main contract fell from a high level due to the weakening of raw material cost support and increased market supply. Both are expected to have a weak performance before the Spring Festival [17]. Financial Futures - The new nominee for the Fed Chairman's monetary policy of "rate - cut + balance - sheet reduction" has led to global de - leveraging. The A - share market is in an adjustment period, and the US stock market is accelerating de - leveraging. Before the Spring Festival, it's necessary to prevent the impact of the US stock market on A - shares, and it's recommended to close long positions, reduce equity assets, or hedge risks [18].

今日，贵金属和有色金属期货价格波动较大，上期所及上期能源于下午收盘后发布通知，调整铜等期货相关合约风控参数。 上期所通知称，自2026年2月9日收盘结算时起，铜、铝、铅、锌、氧化铝期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为10%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为 11%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为12%；铸造铝合金、线材、不锈钢期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为8%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为 9%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为10%；镍、锡期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为12%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为13%，一般持仓交易保证 金比例调整为14%；黄金期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为17%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为18%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为19%；白银 期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为20%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为21%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为22%。如遇《上海期货交易所风险控 制管理办法》第十三条规定情况，则在上述涨跌停板幅度、交易保证金比例基础上调整。关于涨跌停板和交易保证金的其他事项按《上海期货交易所风险 控制管理办法》及相关业务规则执行。 上期能源通知称，自2026年2月 ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals - The overnight international oil price dropped, with Brent's August contract falling 4.01%. Global oil inventories increased in Q1 and Q2, and the supply-demand imbalance persists. Brent is expected to return to the $57 - $70 per barrel range, and investors can consider shorting at the upper boundary [2]. - Precious metals declined as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran reduced risk - aversion sentiment. Market focus may shift to tariff negotiations and the Fed [3]. - LME copper retraced gains, with the LME 0 - 3 month premium dropping to $150. Short positions should be held [4]. - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated overnight. Social inventories increased, and there are short - selling opportunities after the narrowing of the monthly spread [5]. - Alumina spot trading was scarce, and the futures are in a weak oscillation. Short - selling on rebounds is recommended [6]. - Cast aluminum alloy futures had limited fluctuations. Consider a long AD and short AL strategy if the spread between AL2511 and AD2511 widens [7]. - Shanghai zinc's upward movement was driven by short - covering, but downstream demand is weak. The market is expected to remain bearish on rebounds [8]. - Shanghai lead is currently in a state of wait - and - see. A long position can be considered if it breaks through 17,000 [9]. - Shanghai nickel is in a bearish trend, and short positions should be held [10]. - Tin prices oscillated downward. Hold a small number of short positions in the far - month contracts [11]. - Lithium carbonate futures rebounded, but the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. - Polysilicon futures rebounded with a reduction in positions. The market is expected to remain weakly oscillating [13]. - Industrial silicon futures rose slightly, but the upward drive is limited. Hold a wait - and - see attitude [14]. - Steel prices continued to decline at night. Demand expectations are pessimistic, and the market is under pressure [15]. - Iron ore prices weakened overnight. Supply is expected to increase, and the market will oscillate in the short term [16]. - Coke prices oscillated. The fourth round of price cuts was fully implemented, and the market will oscillate narrowly [17]. - Coking coal prices oscillated weakly. Production decreased due to safety inspections, and the market will oscillate narrowly and weakly [18]. - Manganese silicon prices' volatility increased. The market is expected to rise in the short term [19]. - Silicon iron prices oscillated. The market is expected to rise in the short term [20]. Group 2: Shipping and Chemicals - The opening of Maersk's W28 voyage cabins at lower prices strengthened the market's pessimistic expectation of falling freight rates. The market lacks positive factors in the short term [21]. - Fuel oil futures fell following the decline in crude oil prices. The cracking spread of low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to rebound [22]. - The potential increase in fuel oil deduction ratio for asphalt refineries may be negative for the asphalt market. Terminal demand is expected to improve [23]. - Liquefied petroleum gas prices are under downward pressure due to increased supply after the easing of geopolitical risks [24]. - Urea demand is approaching the end of the peak season, and exports may be the key to the subsequent market [25]. - Methanol prices dropped due to the easing of the Israel - Iran situation. The market is mainly affected by the macro - situation [26]. - Styrene prices are expected to continue to decline as the ceasefire agreement led to a drop in oil prices. Supply pressure is increasing [27]. - Polypropylene and plastic prices are affected by the decline in oil prices. Supply and demand are relatively stable [28]. - PVC prices may oscillate at a low level. Caustic soda prices are weak, and the supply pressure is high [29]. - PX and PTA prices oscillated narrowly. The supply - demand pattern may become looser in the medium term [30]. - Ethylene glycol prices continued to decline. It will oscillate at the bottom in the medium term [31]. - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices followed the decline of raw materials. The situation of short - fiber is relatively better [32]. - Glass prices weakened slightly at night. High inventory and weak demand persist [33]. - Rubber supply is increasing, and demand is recovering. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [34]. - Soda ash prices are expected to be bearish in the long term due to high supply pressure [35]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate. Pay attention to weather changes from June to August [36]. - Vegetable oil prices fell following the decline in oil prices. Long - term long positions can be considered on dips [37]. - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly. A bearish strategy is recommended in the short term [38]. - Domestic soybean prices oscillated. Pay attention to the US soybean new - crop area report at the end of June [39]. - Corn prices continued to decline. The market may oscillate in the short term [40]. - Pig futures prices fluctuated. There is large pressure on future pig supplies [41]. - Egg futures prices continued to fall. Egg production capacity is still being released [42]. - Cotton prices are recommended to be bought on dips. Pay attention to the US cotton planting area report at the end of June [43]. - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate. US sugar is still in a downward trend [44]. - Apple prices are recommended to be shorted. The new - season production is expected to be bearish [45]. - Wood prices oscillated. Supply is tight, but demand is in the off - season [46]. - Pulp prices are recommended to be held in a wait - and - see attitude. Supply is relatively loose [47]. Group 4: Financial Instruments - A - shares rebounded strongly, and index futures rose. After the cease - fire, the market may refocus on economic and trade negotiations. Increase the allocation of technology - growth stocks [48]. - Treasury bond futures mostly fell. The bond market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [49].