以下文章来源于紫金天风期货研究所 ，作者紫金天风 紫金天风期货研究所 . 紫金天风期货研究所官方订阅号 目前受反内卷影响的新能源、建材和煤炭板块，期货价格涨幅明显快于现货价格，基差率迅速拉低，如多晶硅-12%，焦煤-11%，焦 炭-12%，玻璃-4.6%，甲醇-2.93%（煤炭相关）、氧化铝-2.5%。但后续修复基差是通过现货涨，还是期货跌来实现，一方面取决于 下游的补货意愿，另一方面在无风险套利窗口打开后，会有买现货再盘面套保的动作。 需要注意的是，此轮行情也受到了二季度过于悲观情绪的反噬。从库存和仓单表现来看，部分商品的核心库存分位数并不高，同时仓 单分位数亦不高。这是基于二季度全产业链看空价格，主动跌价去库存导致的。 下游产业买涨不买跌，如果继续传导到补库环节，可能存在现货带着期货同涨，同时基差走强的情况。我们认为在反内卷相关品种的 库存和仓单库存累积到相对高位之前，整体商品恐仍然易涨难跌。 文 | 肖兰兰 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 7月2日，以多晶硅为代表的新能源品种打响反内卷的第一枪，随后7月18日工信部表示将推动重点行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落 后产能 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Index Futures, Polysilicon [1] - Bearish: Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Stainless Steel [1] - Volatile: Treasury Bonds, Gold, Silver, Alumina, Nickel, Industrial Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, HK, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, PE, PVC, Chlor - Alkali, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - The market's reaction to negative news in the stock index has become dull, with strong trading volume and sentiment. The market's willingness to allocate equity assets has increased, and short - term index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to various factors such as the strength of the US dollar and market uncertainties [1]. - Copper prices may fall due to US inflation rebound and potential copper tariff implementation [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to weaken due to high prices suppressing demand and inventory accumulation [1]. - Alumina prices have stabilized and rebounded due to supply - side reform expectations [1]. - Zinc prices are under pressure, and short - selling opportunities should be watched for [1]. - Nickel prices are volatile, and short - term short - selling and long - term supply pressure should be considered [1]. - Tin prices have short - term support but may decline in the long term [1]. - The prices of various industrial and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - economic conditions, showing different trends of rise, fall, or fluctuation [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Index Futures: The market's reaction to negative news is dull, trading volume and sentiment are strong. With the "asset shell" situation and "national team" support, the market's willingness to allocate equity assets has increased. Short - term index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1] Precious Metals - Gold: Market uncertainties exist, and gold prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1] - Silver: The strengthening of the US dollar may suppress silver prices, and silver prices are expected to fluctuate [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: US inflation rebound and potential copper tariff implementation may lead to a decline in copper prices [1] - Aluminum: High prices suppress demand, inventory accumulates, and aluminum prices are expected to weaken [1] - Alumina: Supply - side reform expectations have led to price stabilization and rebound [1] - Zinc: Prices are under pressure, and short - selling opportunities should be watched for [1] - Nickel: Prices are volatile, and short - term short - selling and long - term supply pressure should be considered [1] - Stainless Steel: Futures prices are volatile, and short - selling hedging and positive basis trading opportunities should be grasped [1] - Tin: Short - term support exists, but prices may decline in the long term [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: Supply and demand factors co - exist, and the market has high sentiment [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish due to supply - side reform expectations and high market sentiment [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Supply and demand factors lead to price fluctuations [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: Supported by strong furnace materials, prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - Iron Ore: Market sentiment is good, but fundamentals are weakening, and prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - Glass: Short - term support exists, but medium - term over - supply may limit price increases [1] - Soda Ash: Supply is expected to increase, demand is weak, and prices are under pressure [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: Due to market expectations, short - selling should be avoided in the short term, and positive basis trading opportunities should be grasped [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: MPOB monthly report is neutral to bearish, and wait for a callback to buy the 01 contract [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The entry of Australian rapeseed may have a negative impact on prices in the short term [1] - Cotton: Domestic cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and price trends are affected by factors such as crude oil prices [1] - Corn: CO9 is expected to fluctuate, and C01 is recommended to short at high prices [1] - Soybean Meal: MO1 is supported, and a low - buying strategy can be adopted [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Affected by factors such as geopolitical situation, OPEC+ production, and seasonal consumption, prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - HK: Downstream demand is weakening, supply is expected to increase, and inventory is increasing slightly [1] - BR Rubber: Fundamentals are under pressure, but there is some support from device maintenance [1] - PTA: Supply has shrunk, but crude oil is strong. Polyester downstream load remains high, and market supply is becoming more abundant [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Coal prices have risen slightly, and there are factors of supply increase and decrease [1] - Short Fiber: Warehouse receipt registration is low, and cost follows closely [1] - Styrene: Device load has increased, and the basis has weakened [1] - PE: Macro - sentiment has subsided, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] - PVC: Affected by factors such as coking coal prices and seasonal demand, prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - Chlor - Alkali: Maintenance is coming to an end, and attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine [1] - LPG: Affected by factors such as crude oil prices and seasonal demand, prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: The freight rate is expected to show an arc - top trend, and the peak time is advanced [1]

昨日期指延续强势，沪指一度突破 3400 点。当前指数慢牛，结构性行情突出，主要由几 方面驱动构成。首先，外部风险扰动有限，中美本周在伦敦进行新一轮磋商，市场预期偏积 极。港股市场流动性充裕，对内地市场带来偏多传导。其次，国内基本面持稳，政策预期乐 观。虽然昨日公布的通胀、外贸等经济数据表现并不强劲，但政策强势托底态度下，宏观大 幅下行风险封杀。而经济温和修复状态又提升后期政策宽松信心。再次，一致性看多预期尚 未形成，空翻多转向带来持续性的资金入市。多因素共振之下，股市风险偏好温和回升，造 就股市偏强格局。后期，若行情上行加速，交易过于拥挤；或外部流动性、关税等环境出现 新变化，指数震荡局面或加大。 所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-06-10 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-06-10 所长 早读 风险偏好回升，持续提振股指 观点分享： 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 铸造铝合金 | ★★★★ | 铸造铝合金：上市高开，短期基本面偏弱，后续关注跨期正套、多 AD 空 AL 头寸。上市首 日，全合约大概率高开。交易所公布的挂 ...