铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号： F03142619 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铸造铝合金：需求边际走弱，价格高位震荡 强弱分析：中性 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 第 2 页 资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、乘联会、国泰君安期货研究所 精废价差短期震荡 ◆ 本周铝价震荡偏强，带动铸造铝合金价格一路走高，一度触及21600高点。供应 方面，年末废铝回收进入淡季，市场流通货源偏紧，持货商挺价惜售增加。临 近春节备库，部分企业面临补库困难，厂内原料库存偏低。需求方面，临近年 底下游需求小幅走弱，前期赶单已接近尾声，价格高位下游接单较为谨慎，而 成本压力以及环保限产等影响再生铝企业开工。整体来看，废铝供应偏紧不改， ...

铜周报：交割风险提高，铜价再创新高 研究员： 王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询资格证号：Z0022141 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 第二章 内外盘价格走势 4 第三章 铜基本面分析及周度数据跟踪 5 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析及操作策略 n 宏观面 日本央行行长强烈暗示12月加息，希望将利率提高至0.75，日本股债双杀，但日本十年期国债拍卖成为周二市场企稳的关键。特朗普暗示美联储主席人选为哈塞特，同时，美 国11月adp就业数据减少3.2万人，在此加强了劳动力市场进一步疲软的叙事，12月降息基本确认。 n 铜矿 n 废铜 n 精铜 11月SMM中国电解铜产量环比增加1.15万吨，环比增幅百分之1.05，同比增幅百分之9.75。一到11月累计，产量同比增加128.94万吨，增幅为百分之11.76。Smm预计12 月电解铜环比上升6.57万吨。 从终端来看，国内需求边际走弱，房地产继续拖累市场，光伏、空调排产出现大幅下滑，后期市场主要支撑来源于两网订单、汽车、储能电池，下游对高价接受度不足，价格 突破9万/吨以后，下游消费明显减弱，但临近年底，部分贸易商需完成年度任务或 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, as the peak of autumn maintenance in European and American refineries has passed and the gasoline shortage may have eased, the rhythmic arrival pressure of pure benzene is high, which suppresses its processing fees. Downstream operations are still at a low level, with phenol operations rising but aniline and adipic acid operations falling, and styrene is in the maintenance period waiting for recovery at the end of the month [2]. - For styrene, overseas, South Korean companies plan to merge and close a cracking unit, and attention should be paid to whether the styrene unit will stop. Domestically, port inventories have risen again, and styrene is in a low - operation maintenance stage with postponed restart plans. The focus now is on downstream operations, which are still at a low level [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Pure benzene's main basis is - 143 yuan/ton (- 32), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 110 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton). Styrene's main basis is 52 yuan/ton (- 12 yuan/ton) [1]. - Suggested strategy: EB2512 - EB2601 for inter - period positive arbitrage at low prices [3]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads - Pure benzene's CFR China processing fee is 99 dollars/ton (- 2 dollars/ton), and FOB South Korea processing fee is 85 dollars/ton (- 4 dollars/ton). Styrene's non - integrated production profit is - 159 yuan/ton (+ 64 yuan/ton), expected to gradually compress [1]. - Suggested strategy: Expand the spread of EB2512 - BZ2603 at low prices [3]. 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories and Operating Rates - Pure benzene port inventory is 16.40 tons (+ 1.70 tons). Styrene's East China port inventory is 164,200 tons (+ 15,900 tons), and East China commercial inventory is 94,200 tons (+ 6,900 tons), in the inventory rebuilding stage [1]. - Pure benzene downstream: Caprolactam operating rate is 88.23% (+ 2.18%), phenol operating rate is 79.00% (+ 12.00%), aniline operating rate is 75.68% (- 4.49%), adipic acid operating rate is 55.50% (- 6.50%) [1]. - Styrene operating rate is 69.0% (- 0.3%) [1]. 4. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 31 yuan/ton (- 74 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 69 yuan/ton (- 74 yuan/ton), ABS production profit is - 553 yuan/ton (- 60 yuan/ton) [2]. - EPS operating rate is 56.27% (+ 4.64%), PS operating rate is 55.90% (+ 0.50%), ABS operating rate is 72.40% (+ 0.60%) [2]. 5. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Caprolactam production profit is - 820 yuan/ton (+ 30), phenol - ketone production profit is - 415 yuan/ton (+ 0), aniline production profit is 499 yuan/ton (+ 3), adipic acid production profit is - 1263 yuan/ton (- 18) [1].

Report Summary Investment Rating - The industry's strength is rated as weak [2] Core Views - In the short - term, the fundamental situation of cast aluminum alloy is characterized by weak supply and demand. As the off - season deepens, the negative feedback of demand is evident. Cast aluminum alloy enterprises reduce their开工率 due to sales pressure, which reduces the demand for scrap aluminum, suppresses scrap aluminum prices, and loosens the downside space. In the short term, cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be under pressure during the off - season, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [6]. - Considering historical seasonality, the monthly structure is highly likely to show a Back pattern in the third quarter. Market participants can still focus on entering inter - period positive spreads at low prices and expect to realize profits during the peak consumption season [6]. - Usually, when the ADC12 - A00 spread converges, one can enter a short - AD long - AL position. However, currently, the profit - loss ratio of this position is not good. In the third quarter, as automobile production ramps up, driving positive feedback on ADC12 demand, one can pre - arrange a long - AD short - AL position [6]. Section Summaries Supply - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium - high level in history [9]. - Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, but the year - on - year growth rate is declining. For example, in May 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 159,700 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3.73%, and the cumulative import was 856,600 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.09% [14]. - The refined - scrap price spread is trending upwards [19]. Supply - Recycled Aluminum - The price of cast aluminum alloy has a short - term slight decline, and the ADC12 - A00 spread continues to weaken [27]. - The regional spread of cast aluminum alloy shows that the southwest region is relatively strong and presents certain seasonal patterns [32]. - The operating rate of cast aluminum alloy has a slight decline, and the monthly operating rate is at a historical low [37]. - ADC12 costs are mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and currently, the average calculation shows a loss [42]. - The explicit and implicit inventories of cast alloys have a slight decline [47]. - The import window for cast aluminum alloy is currently closed [49]. - Regarding recycled aluminum rods, the report shows data on production and inventory, including production volume and its proportion in different regions, as well as inventory and its proportion [52][53][54][55]. Demand - Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption: The production of fuel - powered vehicles is at a low level, which is transmitted to the die - casting consumption [59].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [7] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [7] Core Viewpoints - Energy crisis concerns are premature, and the spot price of alumina is rapidly declining [1] - Aluminum consumption shows marginal weakening, and inventory reduction is slowing down, but the absolute inventory is at a historical low. Alumina prices are in a downward trend, and the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum is expanding [6] - The cost of alumina remains stable, while production and inventory are increasing. The spot price is falling rapidly, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged, making the price more likely to fall than rise [6] - The supply of scrap aluminum for aluminum alloy is tight, and the smelting loss is at a historically high level. Cost support is emerging, and cross - variety arbitrage can be considered [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum - **Price**: As of the week of June 20, 2025, the LME aluminum price increased by 1.79% to $2,561.5/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract increased by 1.06% to 20,465 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum spot premium (0 - 3) changed from -$0.42/ton last week to $11.16/ton [1] - **Supply**: As of the week of June 20, the weekly operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained basically stable and will maintain a steady and slight increase in the future. The built - in capacity is 45.2 million tons, the operating capacity is 44.15 million tons, a weekly increase of 10,000 tons, and the operating rate is 97.7% [1] - **Demand**: According to SMM data, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream aluminum profile leading enterprises decreased by 1.5% to 52.5% compared with last week, the operating rate of aluminum plate, strip and foil decreased by 1.06% to 69.36%, the output of aluminum plate, strip and foil decreased by 0.57 million tons to 372,470 tons, and the average operating rate of aluminum cables remained unchanged at 63.2% [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 449,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from last week; the aluminum rod inventory was 134,500 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last week. As of June 20, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 342,900 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons from the same period last week [1] - **Profit**: As of June 13, 2025, the weighted production cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry was about 17,000 yuan/ton, the immediate production profit was about 3,750 yuan/ton, and the marginal maximum production cost was 18,500 yuan/ton [2] Alumina - **Price**: As of the week of June 20, 2025, the main alumina contract price decreased by 0.17% to 2,890 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, Guizhou, and Guangxi decreased week - on - week, while the FOB price of imported alumina remained unchanged at $370/ton [3] - **Supply**: As of the week of June 20, according to阿拉丁 data, the national built - in capacity of alumina was 112.92 million tons, the operating capacity was 93.05 million tons, a weekly increase of 400,000 tons, and the operating rate was 82.4% [3] - **Cost**: As of the week of June 20, the quoted price of bauxite on the website remained unchanged at $74.5/ton. The seaborne freight dropped from $27/ton to $22/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of June 20, 2025, the national alumina inventory was 3.84 million tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week. The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants was 2.826 million tons, a weekly increase of 18,000 tons; the platform and port inventory was 906,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 4,000 tons; the warehouse receipt inventory was 42,000 tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons [4] - **Profit**: As of June 20, 2025, based on imported ore at $75/ton, the full production cost of marginal high - cost enterprises was about 2,900 yuan/ton, and the production profit was about 350 yuan/ton. The production profit using domestic ore was about 300 yuan/ton. Alumina imports started to incur losses [4] Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: As of June 20, 2025, the Jiangxi Baotai quotation was 19,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [5] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 23,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons; the in - plant inventory was 82,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons; the total inventory was 106,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons [5] Strategy - **Single - side trading**: Be neutral on aluminum and cautiously bearish on alumina [7] - **Arbitrage**: Conduct calendar spread arbitrage on aluminum, going long on AD11 and short on AL11 [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - In the short - term fundamental aspect, the casting aluminum alloy market is in a stage of weak supply and demand. As the off - season deepens, negative demand feedback appears. Casting aluminum alloy enterprises reduce their production due to sales pressure, leading to a decrease in demand for scrap aluminum, a rise in the refined - scrap price difference, and lower costs. In the short term, the price of casting aluminum alloy is expected to face pressure during the off - season, with a bearish outlook [6]. - Considering historical seasonality, the monthly structure is likely to show a Back pattern in the third quarter. At the initial listing stage, market participants can layout inter - period long - spread positions. After the near - end structure becomes Back, they can also consider entering inter - period long - spread positions at low prices and expect to realize profits during the peak consumption season [6]. - Usually, when the ADC12 - A00 price difference converges, one can enter a short - ADC12 and long - A00 position. Currently, the profit - loss ratio of this position is not good. In the third quarter, as automobile production increases, the demand for ADC12 will be positively affected, and one can pre - arrange a long - ADC12 and short - A00 position [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Supply - Side: Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium - high level in history [9]. - Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, but the year - on - year growth rate is declining [11]. - The refined - scrap price difference is showing a trend of recovery [15]. Supply - Side: Recycled Aluminum - The price of casting aluminum alloy has a short - term small increase, and the ADC12 - A00 price difference has significantly converged [19]. - The regional price difference of casting aluminum alloy shows that the southwest region is relatively weak and has certain seasonal patterns [24]. - The operating rate of casting aluminum alloy has been slightly adjusted downward, and the monthly operating rate is at a historical low [29]. - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and currently, the average profit is in a loss state [31]. - The obvious and hidden inventories of casting alloys are increasing [33]. - The import window of casting aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [34]. - Regarding recycled aluminum rods, the production and inventory data show certain trends, with specific production and inventory distribution in different regions [38][40]. Demand - Side: Terminal Consumption - The production of fuel - powered vehicles has declined, which has a negative impact on die - casting consumption [45].

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures and options is expected to promote the green and low-carbon development of China's aluminum industry, while the price trends are influenced by multiple factors [1] Industry Overview - Casting aluminum alloy futures and options are the first recycled metal futures products in China, aimed at enhancing the recycling market and standards for waste aluminum [1] - The futures contract's benchmark price is considered neutral to low, with medium to long-term prices expected to trend downward due to overcapacity and seasonal factors [1] Price Forecast - The reasonable price range for AD2511 is projected to be between 18,000 and 19,700 yuan/ton, with industry clients advised to monitor selling hedging opportunities above 19,800 yuan/ton [1] Raw Material Supply - Waste aluminum is the primary raw material, with current supply tight and prices firm; the price difference between refined and waste aluminum has exceeded 3,000 yuan/ton, indicating supply constraints [1] - In 2024, new waste aluminum supply is expected to reach 3.5 million tons, accounting for 33% of domestic waste aluminum, while imports are projected at nearly 1.8 million tons, making up 14.6% [1] - High waste aluminum prices are squeezing profits for recycled aluminum manufacturers, with 42.2% of waste aluminum stored in building profiles and 22.2% in industrial profiles, indicating significant recovery potential [1] Capacity and Competition - By 2025, new casting aluminum alloy capacity is expected to increase by 1.25 million tons, with approximately 560,000 tons added in the first quarter [1] - The distribution of the recycled alloy industry is not highly concentrated, with many companies located in Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Zhejiang, leading to a fragmented competitive landscape [1] Demand Drivers - The core growth point for aluminum alloy demand is the electric vehicle sector, with the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicting a 24% growth in domestic electric vehicle production by 2025, which may drive demand for recycled aluminum alloys in automotive applications [1] - The traditional off-season for automobiles and non-ferrous metals occurs from June to August, leading to a decline in demand [1] - Aluminum alloys are also used in construction and decoration, with recycled aluminum currently accounting for about 20% of building aluminum, but this proportion is expected to increase with the rise of green building materials [1] Market Dynamics - Currently, ADC12 aluminum alloy is experiencing a high-cost, weak-demand situation, and the deepening off-season may create negative feedback in supply and demand [1] - The price of waste aluminum is expected to support the overall price of aluminum alloys, but the recycled aluminum alloy industry is anticipated to face overcapacity and weak price fluctuations [1] - The introduction of casting aluminum futures may lead to a backwardation structure, presenting opportunities for cross-period positive spreads [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The risk appetite in the stock market has rebounded moderately, creating a relatively strong pattern. The index is in a slow - bull state with prominent structural market conditions, driven by limited external risk disturbances, stable domestic fundamentals and optimistic policy expectations, and the inflow of funds due to the shift from short to long positions [7]. - The cast aluminum alloy is expected to open high on the first day of listing but may decline later. It is recommended to pay attention to inter - period positive spreads and long AD short AL positions [8]. - The pulp market is affected by news but is expected to have limited upside due to high inventory and weak demand [10]. - Crude oil may continue to be strong in the short - term, with Brent having a chance to challenge $80 per barrel in the third quarter, but there is significant downward pressure in the medium - to - long - term [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index - The current index is in a slow - bull state with prominent structural market conditions. External risk disturbances are limited, domestic fundamentals are stable, and policy expectations are optimistic. The inflow of funds due to the shift from short to long positions also contributes to the market. However, if the market rises too fast or there are new changes in the external environment, the index may experience greater fluctuations [7]. 3.2 Cast Aluminum Alloy - It is expected to open high on the first day of listing, with a possible 6 - 8% increase in the call auction. The listing price is significantly lower than the reasonable valuation. However, the fundamentals are weak, and it is likely to open high and fall low. It is recommended to pay attention to inter - period positive spreads and long AD short AL positions around mid - year [8]. 3.3 Pulp - The shutdown of a pulp mill by Fenbao Group boosts the market, but the upside is limited. June is the off - season for the downstream paper market, with weak terminal market performance, low raw material procurement enthusiasm of paper mills, and high inventory, making it difficult for the market to have an unexpected performance [10]. 3.4 Crude Oil - Short - term: Both domestic and foreign crude oil markets are relatively strong. Brent may challenge $80 per barrel in the third quarter. The actual increase in supply is lower than expected, and there are still positive factors such as the contraction of Iranian oil supply, low inventory in major regions, and slow growth of US shale oil supply. - Medium - to - long - term: There is significant downward pressure, and Brent may test $50 per barrel this year. It is recommended to hold long positions and positive spreads as appropriate [11]. 3.5 Other Commodities - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's non - farm payrolls slightly exceeded expectations, and silver had a technical breakthrough. Gold's trend strength is 0, and silver's is 2 [14][22]. - **Copper**: The strength of LME copper spot prices supports the price, and the trend strength is 1 [24]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum is in a sideways shock, and alumina continues to decline. The trend strength of both is 0 [27]. - **Zinc**: Social inventory has increased, putting downward pressure on prices, and the trend strength is - 1 [30]. - **Lead**: In the short - term, supply and demand are both weak, but it is bullish in the medium - term, with a trend strength of 1 [33]. - **Tin**: It has stopped falling and rebounded, with a trend strength of 1 [36]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices are oscillating due to the game between real - world support and weak expectations. Stainless steel prices are oscillating in a range due to increased production cuts through negative feedback. The trend strength of both is 0 [40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The ore price has stabilized, and the weak oscillation continues, with a trend strength of 0 [45]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has limited upside space and is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies. Polysilicon is recommended to be short - allocated on the disk. The trend strength of both is - 1 [48]. - **Iron Ore**: It oscillates repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [52]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The demand expectation is weak, and they are oscillating at a low level. The trend strength of both is 0 [54]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: They are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [58]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke is in wide - range oscillations with a trend strength of - 1, and coking coal is also in wide - range oscillations with a trend strength of 0 [62]. - **Steam Coal**: Demand needs to be released, and it is in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [66]. - **Log**: It oscillates repeatedly [70].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of aluminum alloy futures marks a significant development in China's metal futures market, with the first contract being the 2511 contract, and the market sentiment is cautious due to seasonal consumption factors and price differentials [1][4]. Industry Overview - The aluminum alloy futures market is structured from scrap aluminum to casting aluminum alloy, then to die-cast parts, with the transportation sector being the largest consumer [1]. - The primary delivery standard for the futures is ADC12, which is currently in a consumption off-season, leading to a significant price discount compared to A00 aluminum [1]. Market Dynamics - The current market sentiment is cautious, influenced by the seasonal demand and the price disparity between different quoting platforms, with Jiangxi Baotai generally offering lower prices compared to Shanghai Steel Union and Shanghai Nonferrous [2]. - The market is divided into two categories: high-quality aluminum water for mainframe manufacturers and lower-quality alloy ingots for secondary suppliers, affecting the delivery dynamics [2][3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The second quarter is characterized as a consumption off-season, with limited support for aluminum prices due to low demand and high production capacity [4]. - Despite an overall surplus in aluminum alloy production, the actual circulation of alloy ingots is minimal, resulting in low social inventory levels of 10,000 to 20,000 tons, providing some support for prices [4]. Price Expectations - The expected price range for the first trading day of aluminum alloy futures is between 19,000 and 19,800 yuan per ton, with various factors influencing both the upper and lower limits of this range [5]. - The upper limit is based on recent pricing from Jiangxi Baotai and includes additional costs, while the lower limit considers historical cost and price differentials [5]. Trading Strategies - The initial trading strategy suggests a focus on short to medium-term trading, with a recommendation for competitive buying due to the low listing price, while also being cautious of potential price corrections [6]. - Additional strategies include considering options for hedging and potential arbitrage opportunities due to expected seasonal price peaks and price differentials between ADC12 and A00 [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating [1][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The casting aluminum alloy market is in a significant off - season, showing weak performance. The price of scrap aluminum has declined, and ADC12 is relatively weak. In the short - term, the unilateral price of casting aluminum alloy is under pressure and may run weakly. The price difference between ADC12 and electrolytic aluminum still has room to decline. In the medium - to - long - term, a long - ADC12 and short - electrolytic aluminum position can be arranged at the end of the off - season, and attention can be paid to the inter - period positive spread position [3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium - to - high level in history. Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, but the year - on - year growth rate has declined. The price of scrap aluminum has decreased, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum has increased. After the raw material price of alloy plants decreased, the cost has loosened, but the operating rate is expected to continue to decline due to demand limitations [8][9][13] Supply Side - Recycled Aluminum - The price of casting aluminum alloy has a slight short - term decline, and the spread between ADC12 and A00 has significantly converged. The regional price difference of casting aluminum alloy shows that the southwest region is relatively weak and presents certain seasonal patterns. The operating rate of casting aluminum alloy has slightly decreased, and the monthly operating rate is at a historical low. ADC12 is mainly made from scrap aluminum and is currently in a loss state. The explicit and implicit inventories of casting alloys have increased, and the import window of casting aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [19][22][27] Supply Side - Recycled Aluminum Rod - The production and inventory data of recycled aluminum rods are presented. The production of recycled aluminum rods in different regions and the proportion of factory inventory in different regions are also provided [38][40] Demand Side - Terminal Consumption - In terminal consumption, the production of fuel - powered vehicles has declined, which has affected die - casting consumption. The production of new energy vehicles, motorcycles, and some household appliances, as well as the automobile inventory warning index, are also presented in the report [45][46]