Group 1 - The core conflict of the current era is the showdown between China's industrial power and the financial power represented by the US dollar, with trade wars and tariff battles being mere surface issues [1][8][20] - The expansion of stablecoins is driven not only by virtual and crypto assets but also by real-world economic and trade dynamics [1][20] - The political will behind the "anti-involution" movement is significant, and its successful implementation could lead to strong upward momentum in cyclical sectors, potentially pushing indices to new heights [1][42] Group 2 - The "Stablecoin Act" passed by the US Congress in May 2024 is seen as a significant attempt at financial restructuring and a self-redemption of the dollar's power [2][5][6] - The core design of stablecoins requires that for every unit issued, there must be an equivalent compliant asset backing it, such as US Treasury bonds, which will increase in demand as the blockchain asset market expands [3][19] - China must adopt a dual approach by not only promoting the digitalization of its currency but also building a market for crypto assets denominated in renminbi to enhance its global financial power [3][21][23] Group 3 - The past two decades have seen a significant rise in China's manufacturing dominance, while the financial power of the US has stagnated, leading to a growing disparity between the two powers [8][10] - The US has attempted to undermine China's industrial power through trade policies, but China's manufacturing output has actually increased by 5 percentage points during this period [9][10] - The future balance between these two powers will depend on how effectively China can elevate the renminbi's status in the global financial system [10][11] Group 4 - The stablecoin act aims to connect the crypto asset market with the fragile US dollar system, attempting to rejuvenate the dollar's credit system to counter China's industrial strength [12][13][20] - The rapid expansion of the blockchain asset market is facilitated by advancements in technology, particularly in AI and distributed ledger systems, which could potentially replace traditional fiat currency mechanisms [15][19] - The global capital market has begun to accept the logic of stablecoin expansion, which is tied to the demand for US Treasury bonds [19][20] Group 5 - The "anti-involution" strategy is positioned as a core economic policy for the second half of the year, aiming to reverse the current deflationary trends in China [30][31][32] - The current deflationary state is characterized by aggressive price competition among manufacturers, which could lead to systemic risks if not addressed [33][34] - The success of the "anti-involution" policy will depend on both supply-side interventions and demand-side stimulus measures to halt the downward price spiral [36][40] Group 6 - The potential for cyclical sectors to gain momentum in the market is significant if the "anti-involution" measures yield positive price effects [42][43] - The current market sentiment reflects skepticism about the effectiveness of these measures, with investors still favoring deflationary assets [41][42] - The complexity of implementing "anti-involution" measures today is greater than a decade ago, as the focus has shifted to final product sectors dominated by private enterprises [39][40] Group 7 - Gold is identified as the best investment asset in the current G2 era, with a strong likelihood of high returns over a longer time horizon [66][68] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic competition between the US and China create a prolonged period of uncertainty, making gold a reliable asset [67][68]

智通财经APP获悉，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，在8月1日最后谈判期限前，他本人在设定所谓对等 关税税率时，税率不会低于15%，这表明特朗普政府加征关税的下限正在提高，从"解放日"导致市场暴 跌后的10%基准明显上行。 "我们将对他们实行15%到50%之间的直接且简单的关税。"特朗普当地时间周三在华盛顿一场全球聚焦 的人工智能峰会上表示。"有几个国家——之所以是50%，是因为我们与那些国家的关系并不太好。" 特朗普称对等关税起点为15%，是他试图对几乎所有美国贸易伙伴加征关税的最新变化，也再次表明他 有意更大力度地对尚未与华盛顿达成贸易合作框架的国家出口商品征收关税。 本月早些时候，特朗普表示全球150多个国家将收到一封信，信中会写明"可能是10%或15%，我们还没 完全决定"的关税税率。相比此前透露的预期可谓提升，美国商务部长霍华德·勒特尼克周日在接受CBS 新闻采访时表示，包括"拉美国家、加勒比国家及许多非洲国家"在内的贸易小国的基准关税将是10%。 而在4月首次宣布面向全球的对等关税时，特朗普提出对几乎所有国家统一征收10%的关税。 然而，对于股市等全球风险资产来说，在TACO策略推动下，市场对特朗普关 ...

Market Overview - The average daily trading volume was approximately 14,961 billion, with growth stocks outperforming value stocks, and small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks [1] - The real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors performed well, while coal, banking, and automotive sectors lagged [1] Macro Outlook - In June, CPI increased while PPI decreased, indicating ongoing overcapacity issues; domestic demand remains weak [2] - The CPI year-on-year growth reached a new high since May 2024, driven by rising prices of oil and industrial commodities [2] - The PPI year-on-year decline expanded to the lowest level since August 2023, with overcapacity in coal, steel, and cement sectors [2] - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to boost prices in certain industries, but demand-side improvements are necessary for further price increases [2] International Market Sentiment - Optimism in the equity markets continues, with US stocks breaking previous highs; however, new tariffs announced by the US may increase market volatility [3] - Strong employment data in the US has led to uncertainty regarding interest rate cuts, with potential risks in the over-traded TACO strategy [3] - The global economic downturn risks are rising, and further market gains may depend on timely interest rate cuts or unexpected fiscal expansions [3] Market Trends - The market is currently in a volatile upward trend, with significant selling pressure observed recently, leading to increased divergence between bulls and bears [4] - Key observation point is whether the market can maintain support at 3500; if it does, the upward trend may continue [4] - Short-term adjustments are expected to be shallow, and the market remains in an upward trend, necessitating defensive positioning [4] Investment Focus - Attention should be given to relatively low-positioned industries that have not yet surpassed previous highs, such as cyclical industries, electric new energy, and non-bank financials [5] - The potential for greater elasticity exists in industries that have not yet broken through previous highs, especially if the market continues to strengthen [5] - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, focusing on offensive sectors like technology and defense, while defensive sectors include banking and precious metals [6]

Group 1 - The article discusses the resilience of the market in the face of various crises, including inflation fears, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions, suggesting that these factors have not significantly impacted the long-term bullish trajectory driven by AI [1][2][6] - Investors are increasingly confident in the upcoming earnings season, particularly for major tech companies and AI-related firms, which are expected to show strong performance and continue to drive the market to new highs [2][12] - The "TACO" trading strategy has gained popularity among Wall Street traders, betting that the Trump administration will back down from aggressive tariff threats, leading to market rebounds after initial declines [7][8] Group 2 - Despite rising indicators of market pressure, traders are showing increased risk tolerance, with low volatility across asset classes indicating a potential for continued upward movement in risk assets [3][6] - Major tech companies, particularly those involved in AI, are projected to lead earnings growth, with Nvidia and Microsoft expected to drive significant increases in profitability, contributing to the overall bullish sentiment in the market [12][13] - The demand for AI infrastructure remains strong, with major clients committing to increased spending on AI capabilities, which is seen as a key driver for stock market performance [13]

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed mixed results with Dow futures up 0.19% and S&P 500 futures up 0.10%, while Nasdaq futures fell 0.01% [1] - European indices also experienced gains, with Germany's DAX up 0.17%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.25%, France's CAC40 up 1.08%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.53% [2][3] Oil Prices - WTI crude oil rose by 0.89% to $66.03 per barrel, while Brent crude oil also increased by 0.89% to $67.71 per barrel [3][4] Employment Data - The ADP employment report is set to be released, with expectations of an increase of 95,000 jobs in June, following a disappointing gain of 37,000 in May [5] - The job market remains strong, leading to rising US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield climbing to 4.28% [6] Legislative Developments - The Senate passed the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which includes significant tax cuts and increased military spending, potentially adding $3.3 trillion to the national debt [6] - The "Big Beautiful Act" also includes a tax credit increase for semiconductor manufacturing from 25% to 35%, aimed at boosting domestic production [7] Stock Market Reactions - Solar stocks surged following the Senate's decision to eliminate consumption taxes on wind and solar projects, with Shoals Technologies rising nearly 24% [11] - Jeff Bezos sold $736.7 million worth of Amazon stock as part of a pre-planned trading strategy [9] Company-Specific News - Ford's electric vehicle sales fell by 31.4% in Q2 due to the suspension of the Mustang Mach-E sales over safety concerns [12] - Intel plans to halt external sales of its 18A process technology, focusing instead on its 14A advanced process to attract major clients [10] - Major banks, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, increased dividends after passing the Federal Reserve's stress tests [13]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade tensions initiated by the Trump administration have led to increased economic growth concerns, prompting Wall Street strategists to explore trading strategies that capitalize on the volatility caused by fluctuating tariff policies before May 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Strategies - Nomura's strategist Charlie McElligott indicated that shorting S&P 500 futures following Trump's escalatory trade war comments could yield returns as high as 12% within five days [1]. - The "TACO" strategy, which bets on Trump's tendency to backtrack on aggressive tariff threats, has gained popularity among traders, who anticipate market rebounds after initial sell-offs triggered by his comments [5][6]. - Other investors have adopted similar strategies based on the assumption that the "escalation-de-escalation" cycle of the trade war will continue, although this approach faces market scrutiny as the S&P 500 appears to be desensitized to tariff changes [2][9]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index has shown resilience, rebounding over 20% from its April lows after traders who followed the "TACO" strategy capitalized on Trump's less aggressive tariff measures [8]. - Market sentiment has shifted, with investors now more inclined to bet on a quick recovery during periods of volatility, as evidenced by the muted reactions to recent tariff announcements [9][10]. - The volatility previously associated with Trump's tariff announcements has diminished, suggesting that investors are adapting to his rhetoric and focusing on other market factors [10].