TACO策略

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川普又要加100%关税了?
3 6 Ke· 2025-10-11 09:40
大家好,我是很帅的狐狸 今天来聊聊昨晚川普忽然说要对咱加征的100%关税。 川普一直很想拿诺贝尔和平奖——毕竟奥巴马都拿过,他自然也不想落下,也在多个场合表达了希望获奖。 周五(10日),和平奖揭晓,川普不出意料地落选了。 随后他发了个推,吐槽了下咱周四发布的稀土出口管制新措施,说又要动用关税(盘后威胁11月1日要征税100%),然后美股就崩了。 ① 在境外制作稀土靶材(一般用于半导体/光学薄膜/显示器/电池等)或永磁材料(一般用于航天航空/军工/电机/风机/电子产品),如果里头含有的指定 的中国产的中重稀土及其化合物比例超过0.1%,要许可 标普跌了2.7%,纳指跌了3.5%,创半年来最大跌幅。 加密货币也因此暴跌,比特币盘中跌了13%;WTI原油也暴跌4%。 A股虽然周末没开盘,但追踪A股的富时A50期货也跌了4.28%,美股上市的中概股也血流成河(阿里-8.45%,腾讯-6.33%)。 感觉川普就是想表达:「既然我得不到,就让全世界陪我失眠。」 不过川普这推文也并不是无法预测——毕竟周五A股港股就暴跌了。 而且咱对稀土出口管制其实4月份就有,当时是对七类中重稀土元素及若干磁铁实施出口限制。 周四(9日) ...
下半年超预期机会可能来自“顺周期”!刘煜辉最新交流,详谈稳定币及反内卷
聪明投资者· 2025-07-28 01:55
Group 1 - The core conflict of the current era is the showdown between China's industrial power and the financial power represented by the US dollar, with trade wars and tariff battles being mere surface issues [1][8][20] - The expansion of stablecoins is driven not only by virtual and crypto assets but also by real-world economic and trade dynamics [1][20] - The political will behind the "anti-involution" movement is significant, and its successful implementation could lead to strong upward momentum in cyclical sectors, potentially pushing indices to new heights [1][42] Group 2 - The "Stablecoin Act" passed by the US Congress in May 2024 is seen as a significant attempt at financial restructuring and a self-redemption of the dollar's power [2][5][6] - The core design of stablecoins requires that for every unit issued, there must be an equivalent compliant asset backing it, such as US Treasury bonds, which will increase in demand as the blockchain asset market expands [3][19] - China must adopt a dual approach by not only promoting the digitalization of its currency but also building a market for crypto assets denominated in renminbi to enhance its global financial power [3][21][23] Group 3 - The past two decades have seen a significant rise in China's manufacturing dominance, while the financial power of the US has stagnated, leading to a growing disparity between the two powers [8][10] - The US has attempted to undermine China's industrial power through trade policies, but China's manufacturing output has actually increased by 5 percentage points during this period [9][10] - The future balance between these two powers will depend on how effectively China can elevate the renminbi's status in the global financial system [10][11] Group 4 - The stablecoin act aims to connect the crypto asset market with the fragile US dollar system, attempting to rejuvenate the dollar's credit system to counter China's industrial strength [12][13][20] - The rapid expansion of the blockchain asset market is facilitated by advancements in technology, particularly in AI and distributed ledger systems, which could potentially replace traditional fiat currency mechanisms [15][19] - The global capital market has begun to accept the logic of stablecoin expansion, which is tied to the demand for US Treasury bonds [19][20] Group 5 - The "anti-involution" strategy is positioned as a core economic policy for the second half of the year, aiming to reverse the current deflationary trends in China [30][31][32] - The current deflationary state is characterized by aggressive price competition among manufacturers, which could lead to systemic risks if not addressed [33][34] - The success of the "anti-involution" policy will depend on both supply-side interventions and demand-side stimulus measures to halt the downward price spiral [36][40] Group 6 - The potential for cyclical sectors to gain momentum in the market is significant if the "anti-involution" measures yield positive price effects [42][43] - The current market sentiment reflects skepticism about the effectiveness of these measures, with investors still favoring deflationary assets [41][42] - The complexity of implementing "anti-involution" measures today is greater than a decade ago, as the focus has shifted to final product sectors dominated by private enterprises [39][40] Group 7 - Gold is identified as the best investment asset in the current G2 era, with a strong likelihood of high returns over a longer time horizon [66][68] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic competition between the US and China create a prolonged period of uncertainty, making gold a reliable asset [67][68]
“对等关税2.0”来袭:15%只是起步,最高达50%! 当市场豪赌TACO 特朗普关税算盘也在升级
智通财经网· 2025-07-24 01:23
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around President Trump's announcement of increasing tariffs, with a minimum rate of 15% and a potential range of 15% to 50% depending on the country, indicating a significant shift in trade policy [1][2] - Trump has indicated that he will send letters to over 150 countries regarding the potential tariff rates, which marks an increase from the previously expected 10% baseline [1] - The announcement of higher tariffs is seen as a catalyst for further escalation in trade tensions, with the market showing indifference to these developments, potentially encouraging more aggressive tariff actions from the Trump administration [3][6] Group 2 - Analysts from major banks, including Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, predict that the impact of the new tariffs will not be fully reflected in economic data until later in the year, with inflationary pressures expected to rise significantly [4][5] - The TACO trading strategy has gained popularity among investors, betting that Trump will ultimately back down from his aggressive tariff threats, leading to market rebounds after initial declines [6][7] - There is a growing concern among analysts that the market's confidence in Trump's eventual retreat from tariffs may be misplaced, as the rapid market gains could lead to disappointment if expectations are not met [7]
长城基金汪立:低位蹲守比追高更具性价比
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-07-15 01:24
Market Overview - The average daily trading volume was approximately 14,961 billion, with growth stocks outperforming value stocks, and small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks [1] - The real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors performed well, while coal, banking, and automotive sectors lagged [1] Macro Outlook - In June, CPI increased while PPI decreased, indicating ongoing overcapacity issues; domestic demand remains weak [2] - The CPI year-on-year growth reached a new high since May 2024, driven by rising prices of oil and industrial commodities [2] - The PPI year-on-year decline expanded to the lowest level since August 2023, with overcapacity in coal, steel, and cement sectors [2] - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to boost prices in certain industries, but demand-side improvements are necessary for further price increases [2] International Market Sentiment - Optimism in the equity markets continues, with US stocks breaking previous highs; however, new tariffs announced by the US may increase market volatility [3] - Strong employment data in the US has led to uncertainty regarding interest rate cuts, with potential risks in the over-traded TACO strategy [3] - The global economic downturn risks are rising, and further market gains may depend on timely interest rate cuts or unexpected fiscal expansions [3] Market Trends - The market is currently in a volatile upward trend, with significant selling pressure observed recently, leading to increased divergence between bulls and bears [4] - Key observation point is whether the market can maintain support at 3500; if it does, the upward trend may continue [4] - Short-term adjustments are expected to be shallow, and the market remains in an upward trend, necessitating defensive positioning [4] Investment Focus - Attention should be given to relatively low-positioned industries that have not yet surpassed previous highs, such as cyclical industries, electric new energy, and non-bank financials [5] - The potential for greater elasticity exists in industries that have not yet broken through previous highs, especially if the market continues to strengthen [5] - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, focusing on offensive sectors like technology and defense, while defensive sectors include banking and precious metals [6]
TACO护体,美股无惧风雨,财报季将再掀狂澜?
智通财经网· 2025-07-12 03:41
Group 1 - The article discusses the resilience of the market in the face of various crises, including inflation fears, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions, suggesting that these factors have not significantly impacted the long-term bullish trajectory driven by AI [1][2][6] - Investors are increasingly confident in the upcoming earnings season, particularly for major tech companies and AI-related firms, which are expected to show strong performance and continue to drive the market to new highs [2][12] - The "TACO" trading strategy has gained popularity among Wall Street traders, betting that the Trump administration will back down from aggressive tariff threats, leading to market rebounds after initial declines [7][8] Group 2 - Despite rising indicators of market pressure, traders are showing increased risk tolerance, with low volatility across asset classes indicating a potential for continued upward movement in risk assets [3][6] - Major tech companies, particularly those involved in AI, are projected to lead earnings growth, with Nvidia and Microsoft expected to drive significant increases in profitability, contributing to the overall bullish sentiment in the market [12][13] - The demand for AI infrastructure remains strong, with major clients committing to increased spending on AI capabilities, which is seen as a key driver for stock market performance [13]
美股前瞻 | 三大股指期货涨跌不一 “小非农”重磅来袭
智通财经网· 2025-07-02 11:47
Market Overview - US stock index futures showed mixed results with Dow futures up 0.19% and S&P 500 futures up 0.10%, while Nasdaq futures fell 0.01% [1] - European indices also experienced gains, with Germany's DAX up 0.17%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.25%, France's CAC40 up 1.08%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.53% [2][3] Oil Prices - WTI crude oil rose by 0.89% to $66.03 per barrel, while Brent crude oil also increased by 0.89% to $67.71 per barrel [3][4] Employment Data - The ADP employment report is set to be released, with expectations of an increase of 95,000 jobs in June, following a disappointing gain of 37,000 in May [5] - The job market remains strong, leading to rising US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield climbing to 4.28% [6] Legislative Developments - The Senate passed the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which includes significant tax cuts and increased military spending, potentially adding $3.3 trillion to the national debt [6] - The "Big Beautiful Act" also includes a tax credit increase for semiconductor manufacturing from 25% to 35%, aimed at boosting domestic production [7] Stock Market Reactions - Solar stocks surged following the Senate's decision to eliminate consumption taxes on wind and solar projects, with Shoals Technologies rising nearly 24% [11] - Jeff Bezos sold $736.7 million worth of Amazon stock as part of a pre-planned trading strategy [9] Company-Specific News - Ford's electric vehicle sales fell by 31.4% in Q2 due to the suspension of the Mustang Mach-E sales over safety concerns [12] - Intel plans to halt external sales of its 18A process technology, focusing instead on its 14A advanced process to attract major clients [10] - Major banks, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, increased dividends after passing the Federal Reserve's stress tests [13]
美国经济韧性点燃看涨情绪+非美国股市齐发力 MSCI全球股指创新高
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-06-04 08:51
在周三,MSCI全球股指一度上涨0.2%,至887.73点,超越此前于2月创下的887.72点的上一个历史纪录点位。作 为对比,标普500指数和欧洲斯托克600指数目前仍较今年早些时候的峰值低逾2%。 随着美国总统唐纳德.特朗普在面向全球的关税问题上语调趋于温和,且全球多国采取刺激性的财政或货币政策 来推动经济扩张,全球股市自4月低点显著反弹。此外,市场对于中美贸易争端将持续降温的希望,以及财报季 显示英伟达等AI算力领军者业绩增长预期仍然强劲,提振了市场多头们的看涨情绪,而包括职位空缺以及初请 失业金在内的近期经济数据则显示美国劳动力市场依旧稳健,意味着美国经济的韧性超出经济学家们预期。 衡量全球股市趋势的MSCI全球股指(MSCI All-Country World Index)自2月以来首次刷新历史高位,创下新的历史 纪录。在全球股指创新高背后,美国经济韧性的最新迹象可谓盖过了全球贸易谈判不确定性带来的负面影响, 推动美国市场持续反弹,此外,除美国以外市场,尤其是欧洲、南美洲以及亚洲股市今年以来的强劲走势也是 MSCI全球股指创新高的重要驱动力。 来自Berenberg的多资产策略与研究主管乌尔里希.乌 ...
全球贸易局势风云突变 华尔街“五日淘金术”还能奏效吗?
智通财经网· 2025-06-03 11:50
Core Viewpoint - The recent trade tensions initiated by the Trump administration have led to increased economic growth concerns, prompting Wall Street strategists to explore trading strategies that capitalize on the volatility caused by fluctuating tariff policies before May 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Strategies - Nomura's strategist Charlie McElligott indicated that shorting S&P 500 futures following Trump's escalatory trade war comments could yield returns as high as 12% within five days [1]. - The "TACO" strategy, which bets on Trump's tendency to backtrack on aggressive tariff threats, has gained popularity among traders, who anticipate market rebounds after initial sell-offs triggered by his comments [5][6]. - Other investors have adopted similar strategies based on the assumption that the "escalation-de-escalation" cycle of the trade war will continue, although this approach faces market scrutiny as the S&P 500 appears to be desensitized to tariff changes [2][9]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index has shown resilience, rebounding over 20% from its April lows after traders who followed the "TACO" strategy capitalized on Trump's less aggressive tariff measures [8]. - Market sentiment has shifted, with investors now more inclined to bet on a quick recovery during periods of volatility, as evidenced by the muted reactions to recent tariff announcements [9][10]. - The volatility previously associated with Trump's tariff announcements has diminished, suggesting that investors are adapting to his rhetoric and focusing on other market factors [10].