2025 年 8 月 24 日 策略研究 3800 点后，继续看多市场 ——策略周专题（2025 年 8 月第 3 期） 要点 本周 A 股市场继续上涨 受风险偏好抬升等因素的影响，本周 A 股市场继续上涨。受政策利好刺激、市 场情绪回暖等因素的影响，A 股市场本周整体继续上行，主要宽基指数普遍上涨。 在主要宽基指数中，本周科创 50 涨幅最大，而上证 50 涨幅最小。 行业方面，通信、电子、综合表现相对较好。分行业来看，本周申万一级行业普 遍出现上涨。通信、电子、综合等行业本周表现相对较好，涨幅分别为 10.8%、 8.9%及 8.2%；相比之下，房地产、煤炭、医药生物等行业涨幅则靠后。 市场有望持续上行，积极做多 近期 A 股表现强势，已经突破去年高点。4 月 8 日以来，国内市场持续上行，并 且不断创下年内新高，在近期上证指数更是突破了去年的高点。在市场上涨的过 程中，整体回撤也相对较小，上证指数最大回撤率仅为 2.48%。截至 8 月 22 日， 上证指数的收盘点位为 3826。 展望未来，我们认为市场仍然有望继续上行。目前来看，支撑股票市场上涨的逻 辑并没有发生变化，市场估值目前也较为合理，并未出现 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Background - The domestic economy is showing stable growth with a GDP increase of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, supported by a 6.4% rise in industrial production and a 5.9% increase in the service sector [10][11] - Investment growth remains stable, with fixed asset investment rising by 2.8% year-on-year, and manufacturing investment increasing by 7.5%, accounting for 25.2% of total fixed asset investment [10][11] - Consumer spending is robust, contributing 52% to economic growth, with retail sales increasing by 5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [10][12] Group 2: Market Performance - In July, the A-share market experienced a rise due to increased market sentiment and capital inflows, while the bond market showed fluctuations in yields driven by a loose liquidity environment [2][6] - The performance of major asset classes in July indicated a mixed trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index showing positive returns, while bond yields initially rose before stabilizing [3][4] - The stock market is expected to face a high-level consolidation phase in the short term due to profit-taking, despite structural opportunities in technology growth and anti-involution policy sectors [2][6] Group 3: External Market Dynamics - The U.S. labor market shows signs of risk, with a notable decline in non-farm payrolls and rising unemployment claims, which may impact economic expectations [6] - The U.S. inflationary pressures are anticipated to persist, potentially affecting consumer spending and overall market sentiment [6] - The outlook for U.S. assets remains cautious, with the dollar index expected to shift from a downward trend to a more volatile range, influenced by economic data and Federal Reserve policy signals [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - China has shifted from a passive defensive strategy in international trade to an active offensive approach, responding decisively to unfair treatment and trade pressures from multiple countries [1][3][22]. Trade Measures - On July 1, China announced anti-dumping duties on stainless steel products imported from 30 countries, including the EU, Indonesia, and South Korea [4][5]. - The move is seen as a direct response to previous trade actions against China, such as the EU's imposition of a 13.2% anti-dumping duty on Chinese tinplate products [5][15]. Strategic Implications - The decision to impose tariffs on multiple countries simultaneously signals a significant change in China's role in international trade, indicating a transition to a more assertive stance [3][22]. - China is leveraging its strong industrial base in stainless steel production, which accounts for a substantial portion of the global market, to enhance domestic competitiveness [15][18]. Market Dynamics - The tariffs are designed to apply differentiated rates, particularly targeting South Korean companies, which may face punitive tariffs as high as 103.1%, while leaving some room for cooperation [18]. - Countries like Indonesia, which rely on their natural resources, are attempting to use their position to gain political leverage, but they may underestimate China's control over critical resources like nickel [10][19]. Global Reactions - The EU and UK are facing significant supply chain risks due to China's actions, prompting a reevaluation of their trade relationships with China [18]. - South Korean companies are experiencing stock declines and are considering relocating operations to mitigate risks associated with China's trade policies [18]. U.S.-China Relations - The U.S. has notably been excluded from the recent tariff list, indicating a potential shift in its approach towards China, as evidenced by recent actions to ease restrictions on exports to China [5][19][21]. - This strategic omission suggests that the U.S. may be seeking to improve relations with China, recognizing the importance of cooperation in the context of global supply chains [19][21].

Economic Growth - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to deepen the construction of a unified national market and regulate "involution" competition among enterprises[3] - President Xi Jinping highlighted the importance of guiding enterprises to improve product quality and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity[3] - The State Council issued a notice to enhance employment support policies, including expanding special loans and increasing unemployment insurance return ratios[3] Infrastructure and Industry Policies - The China Cement Association released guidelines to promote "anti-involution" and "stable growth" in the cement industry, with many industries issuing production reduction notices[4] - A collective production cut of 30% was announced by leading photovoltaic glass companies to alleviate "involution" competition[4] - Some steel mills have received notices for production reduction and emission limits[4] Consumer Policies - Shanghai optimized the environment for outbound tax refunds, and Taobao launched a 50 billion RMB subsidy for consumer vouchers to stimulate consumption[4][16] - The initiative by Taobao is expected to benefit more small and medium-sized businesses and stimulate greater consumption[16] Financial Regulation - Recent financial regulatory policies focus on optimizing capital market mechanisms and exploring the development of RMB stablecoins in Shanghai and Hong Kong[19] - The government aims to guide insurance companies towards long-term stable investments[19] Trade Policies - The U.S. has lifted certain trade restrictions on China, including the requirement for government licenses for major chip design software suppliers[5][22] - The U.S. plans to implement new tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% on countries without trade agreements starting August 1[6][25] Overseas Macro Policies - The U.S. Federal Reserve members largely expect another interest rate cut later this year, with the "Big Beautiful Act" extending tax cuts set to expire in 2025, potentially increasing the fiscal deficit by 3 to 4 trillion USD over the next decade[6][25] - The U.S. Treasury plans to increase its cash reserves significantly, from approximately 313 billion USD to 500 billion USD by the end of July[27]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the intensifying trade conflict initiated by the U.S., with President Trump planning to notify over 170 countries about impending tariffs, indicating a shift towards a more aggressive trade stance [1][3][10] - The U.S. has only successfully negotiated agreements with the UK and Vietnam, with both countries accepting tariffs of 10% and 20% respectively, showcasing the slow progress in negotiations with other nations [1][3] - Trump’s frustration with the slow negotiation process has led him to opt for a direct communication method, sending approximately 10 letters daily to inform countries of their respective tariff rates [1][3] Group 2 - The potential tariff rates for countries could range from 20% to 30%, with Japan facing threats of 30% to 35% tariffs due to stalled negotiations on key issues like rice and automobiles [3][7] - The European Union has taken a hardline stance, demanding the U.S. lift existing tariffs before any agreements can be made, while also preparing for potential retaliatory measures [3][10] - The passage of the "Big and Beautiful Act" has emboldened Trump’s tariff policies, as it aims to fill the fiscal gap created by tax cuts and increased government spending through tariff revenues [4][5][7] Group 3 - The U.S. has made recent moves to ease restrictions on exports to China, indicating a potential de-escalation in the trade war, contrasting with the aggressive tariff strategy towards other nations [8] - The imposition of tariffs is expected to raise export costs for countries closely trading with the U.S., potentially harming their economic growth and employment [10] - While tariffs may temporarily boost U.S. fiscal revenues, they could lead to higher consumer prices and inflation in the long run, negatively impacting American consumers [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the semiconductor industry [7]. Core Insights - The overseas AI chip index increased by 1.3% this week, while the domestic AI chip index decreased by 2.8% [10][11]. - Notable stock movements include Nvidia's 1% increase and significant declines for Marvell and AMD [10]. - The report highlights the upcoming mass production phase for Samsung's 1c nanometer DRAM technology [34]. Market Review - The overseas AI chip index rose 1.3% this week, with MPS up approximately 3%, and TSMC and Broadcom both exceeding 2% gains. Nvidia saw a 1% increase, while Marvell and AMD experienced declines of 2.6% and 4.1%, respectively [10]. - The domestic AI chip index fell by 2.8%, with most component stocks declining. Notably, Cambricon and Hengxuan Technology dropped over 6%, while only Lanke Technology saw a slight increase of 1.8% [10]. - The Nvidia mapping index surged by 9.3%, with Jingwang Electronics rising over 20% and several other companies seeing gains exceeding 10% [11]. - The server ODM index decreased by 0.7%, with mixed performances among component stocks [11]. - The storage chip index fell by 2.8%, with significant declines in stocks like Zhaoyi Innovation and Hengsuo Technology [11]. - The power semiconductor index saw a minor decline of 0.3%, while the A-share and Hong Kong fruit chain indices increased by 8.2% and 1.5%, respectively [11][17]. Industry Data - The global TWS market is projected to grow by 3% year-on-year in 2025 [23]. - Chinese power manufacturers are optimizing product structures, with an overall increase in gross margins for 2024. DELTA's gross margin is expected to rise from 29.2% in 2023 to 32.4% in 2024, an increase of 3.2 percentage points [28]. - Chinese and American Robotaxi manufacturers are expanding their presence in the global autonomous driving market, with companies like Baidu Apollo and Waymo planning operations in various international locations [31]. Major Events - The Trump administration has lifted certain export licensing requirements for chip design software to China [33]. - Domestic GPU company Muxi Integrated Circuit is preparing for an IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, aiming to raise 3.9 billion yuan [33]. - Huawei's Pura 80 series is set to launch in August, featuring an "AI super intelligent agent" [33]. - Samsung has officially approved the production preparation for its sixth-generation 10nm DRAM memory process, entering the mass production phase [34].

Group 1 - The U.S. strategy of using tariffs to dominate global trade is facing unprecedented challenges, particularly highlighted by the 25% tariff on global automobiles, which has sparked strong international backlash and intensified geopolitical tensions [1] - India has retaliated against the U.S. with counter-tariffs on agricultural products, leveraging its $2.8 billion automotive parts exports to the U.S. as a bargaining chip [2][4] - The U.S. Midwest agricultural states, especially those reliant on soybean and almond exports to India, are experiencing significant economic impacts, leading to decreased farmer incomes and threatening political support for the ruling party [6] Group 2 - India's actions are driven by multiple considerations, including the need to protect its economic interests and the desire to enhance its international standing by challenging U.S. tariff policies at the WTO [3][4] - The political ramifications for the U.S.-India relationship are severe, with potential congressional pushback against military cooperation projects due to trade tensions [7] - The U.S. is also adjusting its approach towards China, allowing certain exports, indicating a strategic shift to seek a "soft landing" in its trade war while recognizing China's critical role in global supply chains [9][13] Group 3 - The response from India, the EU, and Japan to U.S. unilateralism indicates a shift towards a more multilateral global trade environment, undermining the effectiveness of the U.S. strategy [15] - The U.S. is attempting to use India as a strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific to counterbalance China, while India maintains a careful balance in its foreign relations [13]

Group 1: Trade Relations - China has not imported any U.S. oil for three consecutive months (March, April, May), marking the longest period since 2018 without purchases [1][6] - This cessation of oil imports is seen as a significant blow to U.S. oil companies, which are already facing fierce competition in global markets [6] - The U.S. had hoped to leverage tariffs to gain concessions from other countries, but the strategy has backfired, damaging its international trade image and negatively impacting domestic industries [3][10] Group 2: Diplomatic Stance - China's Foreign Affairs Minister emphasized the country's commitment to peace while also asserting that it will not renounce the use of force for national unification, signaling a firm stance on sovereignty issues [4][10] - The U.S. is exhibiting contradictory behavior, aiming for military deterrence while simultaneously expressing a desire to avoid direct conflict with China due to its own industrial shortcomings [7][10] - Recent reports indicate a potential thaw in U.S.-China trade relations, with the U.S. planning to lift some export restrictions on products like chip design software and aircraft engines [7][8] Group 3: Future Outlook - The evolving dynamics between the two largest economies in the world will significantly impact global peace and stability, with the potential for either cooperation or increased confrontation [10] - The historical inconsistency of U.S. export policies towards China raises concerns about future relations, suggesting that any current easing of restrictions may be temporary and driven by negotiation tactics [8][10]

Group 1 - The core issue is the significant decline in U.S. crude oil exports to China, marking the longest period of zero purchases since 2018, which poses a survival threat to U.S. shale oil producers [1] - The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has fallen below $70 per barrel due to dual pressures, with OPEC considering increasing production, further squeezing market space [1] - The crisis is extending from oil fields to the job market, as refineries are forced to cut production and the throughput at Gulf Coast ports is shrinking [1] Group 2 - China is diversifying its energy sources, securing oil from Russia, Canada, and the Middle East, while exploring de-dollarization in oil transactions with Iran, thereby reducing U.S. influence over the global energy market [3] - The U.S. government has responded to the situation by easing restrictions in key sectors, including allowing General Electric to resume supplying engines to Chinese companies, indicating a potential thaw in trade tensions [3][5] - The trade standoff reflects a clash of international order perspectives, with China's actions demonstrating a break from zero-sum thinking in resource management [6] Group 3 - The 90-day tariff suspension period poses a critical challenge for the U.S. shale oil industry, as failure to negotiate energy and technology exchanges could trigger systemic crises due to accumulated debts [8] - The movement of eight ethane ships to China symbolizes a potential breakthrough in trade relations, but a genuine resolution requires moving beyond resource competition to mutual benefit [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the sudden shift in U.S. foreign policy under Trump, moving from negotiations with Vietnam to sending friendly signals to China, highlighting the strategic implications of these actions in the context of U.S.-China relations and Vietnam's position in the geopolitical landscape [1]. Group 1: U.S.-Vietnam Trade Agreement - On July 2, 2023, Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on goods exported to Vietnam while exempting imports from Vietnam [3]. - All goods transiting through Vietnam will face a 40% additional tax, indicating a unilateral pressure from the U.S. on Vietnam [4]. - The agreement appears beneficial to Vietnam but is essentially a strategic maneuver by the U.S. to suppress Chinese manufacturing [4][6]. Group 2: Economic Impact on Vietnam - The U.S. exemption of tariffs on exports to Vietnam will lead to an influx of American goods, putting significant pressure on local Vietnamese businesses [6]. - Vietnam has historically acted as a middleman, importing raw materials from China, processing them, and exporting finished goods to the U.S. [6]. - The high tariffs on transiting goods could disrupt the economic cooperation between China and Vietnam, as Vietnam has been balancing its relations with both countries [9]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - Vietnam's alignment with the U.S. is driven by ongoing trade tensions and domestic anti-China sentiments, particularly regarding the South China Sea [10]. - The agreement has raised concerns about Vietnam's long-term economic strategy and its relationship with China, as it risks becoming a pawn in U.S. geopolitical strategies [20][26]. - China's response has been measured, emphasizing the need for win-win cooperation and warning against actions that could harm bilateral relations [22]. Group 4: U.S.-China Relations - Following the agreement with Vietnam, the U.S. quickly signaled a thaw in relations with China by lifting restrictions on ethane and chip design software exports [14]. - This shift is seen as a tactical move by Trump to negotiate better terms regarding China's dominance in rare earth resources, which are critical for U.S. military and technological capabilities [18][20]. - The U.S. strategy appears to be a complex negotiation rather than a straightforward diplomatic approach, with potential implications for the global supply chain [26].