刚刚，美国总统唐纳德・特朗普（Donald Trump）宣布，美国将从 11 月 1 日起对从中国进口的商品征收 100% 的新关税，"这一关税高于目前已 征收的任何关税"。特朗普还称，美国将在同一天对 "所有关键软件" 实施出口管制。 当前，几乎所有从中国进口到美国的产品都已面临高额关税。根据富国银行经济部门和纽约联邦储备银行分析师的数据，虽然进口商品的具体关 税水平各不相同，从钢铁和铝的 50% 到消费品的 7.5% 不等，但目前从中国进口商品的所谓实际关税税率为 40%。 加征为"报复"性举措，特朗普声称"拭目以待" 这一宣布，是在特朗普威胁要 "大幅提高" 从中国进口商品的关税以回击中国对稀土矿物实施新的出口管制措施数小时后作出的。 全球约 70% 的稀土矿物供应来自中国。稀土矿物对于制造微芯片和半导体至关重要，这些芯片和半导体被用于人工智能技术和电子产品。中国 商务部于 10 月 9 日表示，自 12 月 1 日起，外国实体若要出口以下两类产品，必须获得许可证：一是产品中源自中国的稀土含量超过 0.1%；二 是采用中国的稀土开采、冶炼分离、磁体制造或回收技术生产的产品。 这些新限制措施引发了美国企业 ...

大家好，我是很帅的狐狸 今天来聊聊昨晚川普忽然说要对咱加征的100%关税。 川普一直很想拿诺贝尔和平奖——毕竟奥巴马都拿过，他自然也不想落下，也在多个场合表达了希望获奖。 周五（10日），和平奖揭晓，川普不出意料地落选了。 随后他发了个推，吐槽了下咱周四发布的稀土出口管制新措施，说又要动用关税（盘后威胁11月1日要征税100%），然后美股就崩了。 ① 在境外制作稀土靶材（一般用于半导体/光学薄膜/显示器/电池等）或永磁材料（一般用于航天航空/军工/电机/风机/电子产品），如果里头含有的指定 的中国产的中重稀土及其化合物比例超过0.1%，要许可 标普跌了2.7%，纳指跌了3.5%，创半年来最大跌幅。 加密货币也因此暴跌，比特币盘中跌了13%；WTI原油也暴跌4%。 A股虽然周末没开盘，但追踪A股的富时A50期货也跌了4.28%，美股上市的中概股也血流成河（阿里-8.45%，腾讯-6.33%）。 感觉川普就是想表达：「既然我得不到，就让全世界陪我失眠。」 不过川普这推文也并不是无法预测——毕竟周五A股港股就暴跌了。 而且咱对稀土出口管制其实4月份就有，当时是对七类中重稀土元素及若干磁铁实施出口限制。 周四（9日） ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 来源 ： 内容 编译自彭博社 。 在中国对稀土矿出口实施限制，而美国则对中国征收额外关税并限制其软件销售之后，全球半导体供 应链上的企业正准备应对不断升级的贸易战带来的中断。 乔 治 城 大 学 安 全 与 新 兴 技 术 中 心 高 级 数 据 研 究 分 析 师 雅 各 布 · 费 尔 德 戈 伊 斯 (Jacob Feldgoise) 表 示："在半导体价值链中，中国新的出口管制可能会对在芯片制造过程中使用稀土化学品的芯片制造 商以及将稀土磁铁集成到设备中的工具制造商产生最大影响。" 中国的新规定要求海外公司在运输任何含有微量中国稀土元素的材料时必须获得批准，并明确指出用 于制造某些计算机芯片和推进军事应用人工智能研究的部件。 中国的限制措施是迄今为止针对稀土材料供应采取的最具针对性的举措，也是中国首次试图对外国公 司实施长臂管辖，瞄准半导体行业，此举可能阻碍推动人工智能繁荣发展的芯片产业。此举促使美国 总统唐纳德·特朗普周五宣布，将对中国产品加征100%的关税，并对"所有关键软件"实施出口管制。 一位知情人士表示，稀土限制可能会导致 ASML Holdi ...

2025年7月2日，美越达成了一项贸易协议，规定美国对越南出口商品征收20%的关税，而越南对美国产品则免征关税。此外，越南还将对疑似转运的货物征 收40%的关税。显而易见，这40%关税主要是针对那些通过越南转运到美国的中国商品。事实上，越南的出口依赖于转口贸易，尤其是在中美贸易摩擦加剧 后，中国的商品通过越南港口进入美国市场，越南由此赚取了不少好处。然而，这项协议一出台，实际上是越南自掘坟墓，堵住了自己的出口路，反而成了 美国制约中国的工具。 越南原本是东南亚地区经济增长的亮点，制造业的转移也使其成为一个重要的出口国，纺织品、电子产品和鞋类等商品对美出口占了很大比例。特朗普上任 后，曾扬言要对越南商品加征46%的关税，这让越南政府紧张不已。虽然协议中的20%关税听起来似乎较低，但美国市场的开放意味着大量美国产品涌入越 南市场，这对越南本土产业将构成巨大的冲击。更糟糕的是，转运条款要求越南海关严格审查中国货物，这让原本畅通的边境物流陷入困境，导致越南企业 成本大幅上涨。据统计，协议签署前，越南对美国的贸易顺差超过400亿美元，其中约三成是通过转运中国货物实现的。然而，现在40%的关税一出，整个 供应链将不得不进 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market continued to rise this week, driven by increased risk appetite and favorable policies, with the Sci-Tech 50 index showing the highest increase of 13.3% and the Shanghai 50 index the lowest at 3.4% [1][11] - The overall market performance has been strong since April 8, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking last year's high and a maximum drawdown of only 2.48% [2][20] - The market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by stable economic fundamentals and reasonable valuations, with new positive factors emerging such as the potential start of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle and a recovery in public fund issuance [3][32] Group 2 - Short-term investment focus should be on sectors that have lagged behind, with an emphasis on mechanical and electrical equipment, and specific industries like engineering machinery and commercial vehicles [4][56] - Long-term investment should concentrate on three main lines: technological self-reliance, domestic consumption, and dividend stocks, with particular attention to AI, robotics, and semiconductor industries [62][67] - The domestic consumption sector is expected to benefit from ongoing consumption stimulus policies, with a focus on home appliances and service consumption, particularly in sectors like dining and tourism [67][68]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Background - The domestic economy is showing stable growth with a GDP increase of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, supported by a 6.4% rise in industrial production and a 5.9% increase in the service sector [10][11] - Investment growth remains stable, with fixed asset investment rising by 2.8% year-on-year, and manufacturing investment increasing by 7.5%, accounting for 25.2% of total fixed asset investment [10][11] - Consumer spending is robust, contributing 52% to economic growth, with retail sales increasing by 5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [10][12] Group 2: Market Performance - In July, the A-share market experienced a rise due to increased market sentiment and capital inflows, while the bond market showed fluctuations in yields driven by a loose liquidity environment [2][6] - The performance of major asset classes in July indicated a mixed trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index showing positive returns, while bond yields initially rose before stabilizing [3][4] - The stock market is expected to face a high-level consolidation phase in the short term due to profit-taking, despite structural opportunities in technology growth and anti-involution policy sectors [2][6] Group 3: External Market Dynamics - The U.S. labor market shows signs of risk, with a notable decline in non-farm payrolls and rising unemployment claims, which may impact economic expectations [6] - The U.S. inflationary pressures are anticipated to persist, potentially affecting consumer spending and overall market sentiment [6] - The outlook for U.S. assets remains cautious, with the dollar index expected to shift from a downward trend to a more volatile range, influenced by economic data and Federal Reserve policy signals [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - China has shifted from a passive defensive strategy in international trade to an active offensive approach, responding decisively to unfair treatment and trade pressures from multiple countries [1][3][22]. Trade Measures - On July 1, China announced anti-dumping duties on stainless steel products imported from 30 countries, including the EU, Indonesia, and South Korea [4][5]. - The move is seen as a direct response to previous trade actions against China, such as the EU's imposition of a 13.2% anti-dumping duty on Chinese tinplate products [5][15]. Strategic Implications - The decision to impose tariffs on multiple countries simultaneously signals a significant change in China's role in international trade, indicating a transition to a more assertive stance [3][22]. - China is leveraging its strong industrial base in stainless steel production, which accounts for a substantial portion of the global market, to enhance domestic competitiveness [15][18]. Market Dynamics - The tariffs are designed to apply differentiated rates, particularly targeting South Korean companies, which may face punitive tariffs as high as 103.1%, while leaving some room for cooperation [18]. - Countries like Indonesia, which rely on their natural resources, are attempting to use their position to gain political leverage, but they may underestimate China's control over critical resources like nickel [10][19]. Global Reactions - The EU and UK are facing significant supply chain risks due to China's actions, prompting a reevaluation of their trade relationships with China [18]. - South Korean companies are experiencing stock declines and are considering relocating operations to mitigate risks associated with China's trade policies [18]. U.S.-China Relations - The U.S. has notably been excluded from the recent tariff list, indicating a potential shift in its approach towards China, as evidenced by recent actions to ease restrictions on exports to China [5][19][21]. - This strategic omission suggests that the U.S. may be seeking to improve relations with China, recognizing the importance of cooperation in the context of global supply chains [19][21].

Economic Growth - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to deepen the construction of a unified national market and regulate "involution" competition among enterprises[3] - President Xi Jinping highlighted the importance of guiding enterprises to improve product quality and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity[3] - The State Council issued a notice to enhance employment support policies, including expanding special loans and increasing unemployment insurance return ratios[3] Infrastructure and Industry Policies - The China Cement Association released guidelines to promote "anti-involution" and "stable growth" in the cement industry, with many industries issuing production reduction notices[4] - A collective production cut of 30% was announced by leading photovoltaic glass companies to alleviate "involution" competition[4] - Some steel mills have received notices for production reduction and emission limits[4] Consumer Policies - Shanghai optimized the environment for outbound tax refunds, and Taobao launched a 50 billion RMB subsidy for consumer vouchers to stimulate consumption[4][16] - The initiative by Taobao is expected to benefit more small and medium-sized businesses and stimulate greater consumption[16] Financial Regulation - Recent financial regulatory policies focus on optimizing capital market mechanisms and exploring the development of RMB stablecoins in Shanghai and Hong Kong[19] - The government aims to guide insurance companies towards long-term stable investments[19] Trade Policies - The U.S. has lifted certain trade restrictions on China, including the requirement for government licenses for major chip design software suppliers[5][22] - The U.S. plans to implement new tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% on countries without trade agreements starting August 1[6][25] Overseas Macro Policies - The U.S. Federal Reserve members largely expect another interest rate cut later this year, with the "Big Beautiful Act" extending tax cuts set to expire in 2025, potentially increasing the fiscal deficit by 3 to 4 trillion USD over the next decade[6][25] - The U.S. Treasury plans to increase its cash reserves significantly, from approximately 313 billion USD to 500 billion USD by the end of July[27]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the intensifying trade conflict initiated by the U.S., with President Trump planning to notify over 170 countries about impending tariffs, indicating a shift towards a more aggressive trade stance [1][3][10] - The U.S. has only successfully negotiated agreements with the UK and Vietnam, with both countries accepting tariffs of 10% and 20% respectively, showcasing the slow progress in negotiations with other nations [1][3] - Trump’s frustration with the slow negotiation process has led him to opt for a direct communication method, sending approximately 10 letters daily to inform countries of their respective tariff rates [1][3] Group 2 - The potential tariff rates for countries could range from 20% to 30%, with Japan facing threats of 30% to 35% tariffs due to stalled negotiations on key issues like rice and automobiles [3][7] - The European Union has taken a hardline stance, demanding the U.S. lift existing tariffs before any agreements can be made, while also preparing for potential retaliatory measures [3][10] - The passage of the "Big and Beautiful Act" has emboldened Trump’s tariff policies, as it aims to fill the fiscal gap created by tax cuts and increased government spending through tariff revenues [4][5][7] Group 3 - The U.S. has made recent moves to ease restrictions on exports to China, indicating a potential de-escalation in the trade war, contrasting with the aggressive tariff strategy towards other nations [8] - The imposition of tariffs is expected to raise export costs for countries closely trading with the U.S., potentially harming their economic growth and employment [10] - While tariffs may temporarily boost U.S. fiscal revenues, they could lead to higher consumer prices and inflation in the long run, negatively impacting American consumers [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the semiconductor industry [7]. Core Insights - The overseas AI chip index increased by 1.3% this week, while the domestic AI chip index decreased by 2.8% [10][11]. - Notable stock movements include Nvidia's 1% increase and significant declines for Marvell and AMD [10]. - The report highlights the upcoming mass production phase for Samsung's 1c nanometer DRAM technology [34]. Market Review - The overseas AI chip index rose 1.3% this week, with MPS up approximately 3%, and TSMC and Broadcom both exceeding 2% gains. Nvidia saw a 1% increase, while Marvell and AMD experienced declines of 2.6% and 4.1%, respectively [10]. - The domestic AI chip index fell by 2.8%, with most component stocks declining. Notably, Cambricon and Hengxuan Technology dropped over 6%, while only Lanke Technology saw a slight increase of 1.8% [10]. - The Nvidia mapping index surged by 9.3%, with Jingwang Electronics rising over 20% and several other companies seeing gains exceeding 10% [11]. - The server ODM index decreased by 0.7%, with mixed performances among component stocks [11]. - The storage chip index fell by 2.8%, with significant declines in stocks like Zhaoyi Innovation and Hengsuo Technology [11]. - The power semiconductor index saw a minor decline of 0.3%, while the A-share and Hong Kong fruit chain indices increased by 8.2% and 1.5%, respectively [11][17]. Industry Data - The global TWS market is projected to grow by 3% year-on-year in 2025 [23]. - Chinese power manufacturers are optimizing product structures, with an overall increase in gross margins for 2024. DELTA's gross margin is expected to rise from 29.2% in 2023 to 32.4% in 2024, an increase of 3.2 percentage points [28]. - Chinese and American Robotaxi manufacturers are expanding their presence in the global autonomous driving market, with companies like Baidu Apollo and Waymo planning operations in various international locations [31]. Major Events - The Trump administration has lifted certain export licensing requirements for chip design software to China [33]. - Domestic GPU company Muxi Integrated Circuit is preparing for an IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, aiming to raise 3.9 billion yuan [33]. - Huawei's Pura 80 series is set to launch in August, featuring an "AI super intelligent agent" [33]. - Samsung has officially approved the production preparation for its sixth-generation 10nm DRAM memory process, entering the mass production phase [34].