格隆汇12月19日｜国盛证券研报指出，豪威集团非手机业务正在起势，龙头成长动能已然切换。近期受 存储涨价影响，消费电子产业链普遍回调较多，聚焦豪威公司本身，认为市场过于悲观，究其原因还是 在于市场对豪威的认知仍然将其定位为一家纯正的手机CIS芯片供应商，然而回归本质，看到从今年开 始，豪威的业务结构正在悄然发生变化。汽车CIS25年收入有望超越手机，中高端市场地位稳固；此 外，公司也在同步加大车用模拟芯片的布局，大力推进CAN/LIN、SerDes、PMIC、SBC等多产品的验 证导入，认为该业务有望与汽车CIS形成良好的协同效应，借助汽车CIS强大的产品力加速导入放量。 认为公司汽车业务和影像业务俨然已经成为新的成长动能，手机业务虽然短期有所承压，但产品矩阵的 扩张仍有机会帮助公司提升份额；此外公司在LCoS领域的前瞻布局，未来也有望在AI眼镜、数据中心 OCS中攫取新的收益，这将进一步打开估值天花板。持续看好公司未来发展，因此我们维持营收及利润 预测，公司作为国产CIS龙头显著偏低，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights that the market perception of the company as solely a mobile CIS chip supplier is overly pessimistic, as its business structure is shifting towards non-mobile sectors, particularly automotive CIS, which is expected to surpass mobile CIS revenue in 2025 [3][4] - Automotive CIS revenue is projected to exceed 80 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 30%, indicating a strong position in the mid-to-high-end market [3] - The mobile CIS segment is expected to see a decline, with revenues dropping to approximately 80 billion yuan in 2025, accounting for less than 30% of total revenue due to the lifecycle nearing the end for certain product models [4] Group 2: Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 301.6 billion yuan, 375.7 billion yuan, and 436.7 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.2%, 24.6%, and 16.2% [5] - Projected net profits for the same years are 47.0 billion yuan, 63.3 billion yuan, and 75.0 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 41.5%, 34.6%, and 18.5% [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 32, 24, and 20 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, indicating that the company is undervalued as a leading domestic CIS player [5] Group 3: Industry Performance - The report notes that the communication sector has shown significant growth, with a 1-year increase of 78.3%, while the real estate sector has declined by 8.7% over the same period [1] - The coal industry is experiencing a decrease in both production and imports, with November coal production down by 0.5% year-on-year and imports down by 19.9% [8][9] - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the optical fiber and cable market, driven by AI demand and a stabilization in ordinary cable prices, suggesting a positive outlook for companies in this sector [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities highlights the rapid development of AI models and applications globally, driven by the scaling law and increasing demand for AI inference, which in turn boosts AI storage growth. The domestic AI industry is also experiencing continuous innovation and growth, suggesting a focus on both overseas and domestic AI industry chain-related stocks [1]. Group 1: Electronics Industry - The electronics industry continues to show high prosperity, with a revenue growth of 11% year-on-year and a net profit growth of 29% in the first three quarters of 2025. In Q3 2025, the industry saw a revenue increase of 13% year-on-year and 12% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit rising by 44% year-on-year and 22% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Group 2: Consumer Electronics - The consumer electronics sector is experiencing upward momentum, with a revenue growth of 19% year-on-year and 26.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025. For the first three quarters of 2025, the sector's revenue increased by 14%. The net profit for Q3 2025 grew by 26% year-on-year and 37% quarter-on-quarter, with a 15% year-on-year increase for the first three quarters [2]. Group 3: Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry shows significant profit improvement, with a revenue growth of 8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025. In Q3 2025, the sector's revenue grew by 5%, marking the 11th consecutive quarter of year-on-year growth. The net profit for the first three quarters increased by 35%, while Q3 2025 saw a 73% year-on-year increase in net profit [3]. The gross margin for the semiconductor sector was 26.3% for the first three quarters, up by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, and 28.0% in Q3 2025, reflecting a 3.2 percentage point increase year-on-year [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the strong growth of Haowei Group in the automotive and emerging markets, with a significant recovery in demand for simulation solutions, leading to a "buy" rating for the company [1][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Haowei Group achieved revenue of 13.956 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.42%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.028 billion yuan, up 48.34% year-on-year [2]. - For Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 7.484 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.07% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.63% [2]. Investment Highlights - Q2 2025 revenue reached a historical high, driven by technological reforms and expansion in high-end application product lines, particularly in automotive intelligent driving and smart terminal imaging markets [3]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 30.00%, a slight decrease of 0.24% year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 15.48%, an increase of 2.97% year-on-year [3]. - R&D investment in semiconductor design sales for H1 2025 was approximately 1.724 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.01% [3]. Market Growth - The automotive CIS (Camera Image Sensor) business saw revenue of approximately 3.789 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.04% [4]. - The emerging market CIS business achieved revenue of about 1.173 billion yuan, a remarkable year-on-year growth of 249.42% [4]. - The company launched new products in the smartphone CIS segment, including a 50-megapixel sensor, which is expected to enhance market share [4]. Simulation Solutions - Demand for simulation solutions has significantly rebounded, with H1 2025 revenue from this segment reaching 767 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.88% [5]. - The automotive simulation IC segment generated revenue of 120 million yuan, accounting for 15.66% of the simulation solutions business, with a year-on-year growth of 45.51% [5]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 30.16 billion yuan, 35.21 billion yuan, and 40.36 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6]. - The forecasted net profits for the same years are 4.338 billion yuan, 5.400 billion yuan, and 6.623 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 3.60, 4.48, and 5.49 yuan [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant investment value in the consumer electronics and machine vision sectors, highlighting a projected record high revenue in Q2, driven by widespread sensor applications in high-end smartphones and advancements in automotive CIS technologies [1]. Group 1: Industry Insights - The consumer electronics and machine vision sectors are expected to achieve historical revenue highs in the second quarter [1]. - Sensors are increasingly utilized in mainstream high-end smartphones in China, indicating a robust demand in the consumer electronics market [1]. - The company has launched products in the machine vision field, showcasing its commitment to innovation and market expansion [1]. Group 2: Company Positioning - The company is recognized as one of the top ten Fabless semiconductor enterprises globally, reflecting its strong market position and competitive edge [1]. - Automotive CIS applications include ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) and electronic rearview mirrors, indicating diversification into the automotive sector [1].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive imaging market is projected to grow from $5.9 billion in 2024 to $8.9 billion by 2030, driven by an increase in camera quantity and system complexity, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6% [1] Market Size and Growth - The automotive imaging market is expected to reach $5.9 billion in 2024 and grow to $8.9 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 6.6% [1] - By 2030, the shipment volume is anticipated to increase to 400 million units, primarily driven by surround view, satellite ADAS, and in-cabin applications [1] Key Market Segments - The most valuable segment remains the front ADAS cameras, but side and satellite cameras are growing faster due to the shift towards centralized computing [1] - The Driver Monitoring System (DMS) is the fastest-growing segment in in-cabin applications, driven by EU regulations, while the Occupant Monitoring System (OMS) is gaining traction due to emerging safety use cases [1] Competitive Landscape - Omnivision and Onsemi continue to dominate the automotive CIS market, with Omnivision excelling in cost-sensitive surround and ADAS camera applications [4] - Sony is expanding its market share, particularly in high-resolution camera segments [4] - Valeo leads the smart and viewing camera market, followed by Bosch, ZF, and Magna [5] Supply Chain Dynamics - China is building a fully integrated supply chain from sensors to modules, supporting OEMs like BYD [5] - After the chip crisis, OEMs and tier-one suppliers are adopting multi-sourcing for CIS to enhance supply chain resilience [5] Technology Trends - The trend is shifting towards higher resolution and reliability in automotive image sensors, with ADAS moving towards 8-megapixel resolution [7] - The market is transitioning to centralized fusion architectures, with companies like Sony integrating serializers directly into image sensors [7] Camera Architecture - The trend of distributed camera architecture is reshaping the ADAS market, moving away from single front cameras to multiple side, rear, and panoramic cameras [10] - 360° surround cameras are major contributors to sales, especially with parking assistance and L2+ autonomous driving becoming standard [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [6][21]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing significant growth driven by the automotive CIS sector and is actively pursuing global expansion strategies [1][6]. - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 1.13 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.72%, with a net profit of 253 million yuan, reflecting a substantial increase of 68.4% [6][7]. - The automotive CIS business is highlighted as a key growth driver, with the company leveraging its technological advantages in vehicle-grade packaging to meet the rising demand [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024: 1,130 million yuan - 2025: 1,557 million yuan (37.8% growth) - 2026: 2,028 million yuan (30.2% growth) - 2027: 2,488 million yuan (22.7% growth) [2][7] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024: 253 million yuan - 2025: 392 million yuan (55.1% growth) - 2026: 515 million yuan (31.4% growth) - 2027: 666 million yuan (29.3% growth) [2][7] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: 0.39 yuan - 2025: 0.60 yuan - 2026: 0.79 yuan - 2027: 1.02 yuan [2][7] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 72 in 2024 to 27 in 2027, indicating improving valuation as earnings grow [2][7]. Business Segment Performance - **Chip Packaging and Testing**: Expected revenue of 817 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 33.55% with a gross margin of 44.83% [6][7]. - **Optical Devices**: Revenue forecasted at 293 million yuan, slightly declining by 1.08% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 37.26% [6][7]. - **Design Revenue**: Anticipated to grow significantly by 307.29% year-on-year to 19 million yuan, with a high gross margin of 67.73% [6][7]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its global footprint by establishing partnerships and production bases overseas, particularly in the optical and power semiconductor sectors [6][7]. - Investment in R&D is projected to reach 160 million yuan in 2024, accounting for 14.12% of revenue, reflecting a commitment to strengthening its technological capabilities [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Weir Shares (603501.CH), with a target price of RMB 153.0, indicating a potential upside of 19.1% from the current price of RMB 128.4 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company has entered a strong product cycle, with multiple segments driving business growth in 2025. Key growth drivers include increased penetration of automotive CIS due to BYD's push for smart driving equality, growth in automotive simulation products, expansion in high-end mobile CIS market share, and a potential breakeven in the touch display business this year. Long-term growth expectations remain optimistic as multiple business segments have opened up potential growth ceilings [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 6.472 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15%, marking a historical high for Q1. The gross margin improved to 31.0%, up 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product mix improvement and supply chain optimization. Net profit reached RMB 866 million, a 55% increase year-on-year [2][10]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upwards based on Q1 performance and future outlook [2][11]. Valuation - The report employs a DCF valuation method, assuming a risk-free rate of 2.2% and a growth rate of 25%-30% for 2030-2034, with a perpetual growth rate of 3%. The calculated WACC is 11.3%, leading to a target price of RMB 153.0 [2][12][13]. - The forward P/E ratio is currently at 30.0x, which is below the historical average, indicating potential for upward valuation [1][18]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2025 estimates revenue of RMB 31.094 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21%. The gross margin is projected to be 31.8%, and net profit is expected to reach RMB 4.436 billion, reflecting a 33% increase year-on-year [4][11]. Market Context - The company is positioned favorably within the smartphone and automotive sectors, with strong demand growth anticipated. The competitive landscape is also noted, with the company expected to maintain its market share and benefit from new product launches [25][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Weir Shares (603501.CH), with a target price raised to RMB 153.0, indicating a potential upside of 19.1% from the current price of RMB 128.4 [1][5][10]. Core Insights - The company has entered a strong product cycle, with multiple segments driving business growth in 2025. Key growth drivers include increased penetration of automotive CIS due to BYD's push for intelligent driving, growth in automotive simulation products, expansion in high-end mobile CIS market share, and a break-even point expected for the touch display business this year [1][2]. - The company's first-quarter performance exceeded market expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 6.472 billion, a 15% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of RMB 866 million, up 55% year-on-year [2][10]. - Long-term growth prospects appear optimistic, with multiple business segments having opened up potential growth ceilings. The forward P/E ratio stands at 30.0x, below historical averages, suggesting room for valuation upside [1][2][11]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: Projected revenues for 2025 are RMB 31.094 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21% [4][11]. - **Profitability Metrics**: The gross margin is expected to improve to 31.8% in 2025, with net profit projected at RMB 4.436 billion, reflecting a 33% increase from the previous year [4][11]. - **Earnings Per Share**: The basic earnings per share are forecasted to be RMB 3.64 in 2025, an 8% increase from previous estimates [11][12]. Valuation Analysis - The report employs a DCF valuation method, assuming a WACC of 11.3% and a perpetual growth rate of 3%. The target price of RMB 153.0 is derived from this analysis, indicating a significant upside potential [2][12][13]. - The company’s free cash flow is projected to grow significantly, reaching RMB 6.367 billion by 2027, with a steady increase in operating profit margins [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a record high revenue of 6.47 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 14.7% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 5.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 870 million yuan, up 55.3% year-over-year [1]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the accelerated penetration of automotive intelligence and the continuous introduction of high-end mobile phone products [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of automotive CIS and the introduction of new mobile CIS products, with projected revenues of 29.53 billion yuan, 36.67 billion yuan, and 42.29 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][5]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 31.0%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-over-year, and a net margin of 13.3%, up 3.5 percentage points year-over-year [1]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 25.73 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth rate of 22.4% [5]. - The net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 4.38 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 31.7% [3][5]. Product Lines and Market Position - The automotive CIS segment is expected to see significant growth, with a revenue of 5.9 billion yuan in 2024, up 30% year-over-year, while the mobile CIS segment is projected to generate 9.8 billion yuan, up 26% year-over-year [2]. - The IoT CIS segment also showed strong growth, achieving 760 million yuan in revenue in 2024, a 42% increase year-over-year [2]. - The company is enhancing its competitive advantage through the dual product lines of mobile and automotive CIS, with expectations for continued growth in both segments [2].