Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Fed rate - cut expectations and the repair of the gold - silver ratio drive up silver prices, and tariff uncertainties support gold prices [2]. - The unexpected decline in US ADP employment data indicates a possible slowdown in non - farm employment growth, and the labor market remains resilient. Tonight's non - farm data is crucial for gold price trends. Higher - than - expected labor demand may boost wage growth and rate - cut expectations, thus lifting gold prices. Otherwise, the US dollar may strengthen and suppress gold prices [2]. - COMEX gold futures' net long positions in Q2 2025 hit a four - quarter low, and rising gold prices suppress speculative and physical demand for gold. However, in the long - term, US fiscal deficits and damaged dollar credit are positive for gold prices, and the dovish tone of Fed officials boosts silver's industrial properties, with the gold - silver ratio expected to converge [2]. - The operation suggestion is to adopt a buy - on - dips strategy. For the Shanghai Gold 2508 contract, focus on the range of 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2508 contract, focus on the range of 8700 - 9000 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 781.28 yuan/gram, up 5.24 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 8944 yuan/kilogram, up 197 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 175,461 lots, up 6,865 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 272,055 lots, up 23,032 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract are 141,322 lots, down 1,842 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 87,981 lots, down 3,833 lots [2]. - The gold warehouse receipts are 18,456 kilograms, unchanged; the silver warehouse receipts are 1,340,792 kilograms, up 2,133 kilograms [2]. 现货市场 - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price is 774.59 yuan/gram, up 1.69 yuan; the silver spot price is 8815 yuan/kilogram, up 81 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 6.69 yuan/gram, down 3.55 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 129 yuan/kilogram, down 116 yuan [2]. Supply - Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings are 947.66 tons, down 0.57 tons; the silver ETF holdings are 14,846.12 tons, down 22.89 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 195,004 contracts, down 5,644 contracts; those of silver are 62,947 contracts, down 4,227 contracts [2]. - The total quarterly supply of gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total quarterly demand for gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global annual demand for silver is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.24%, up 0.28%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.85%, down 0.05% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 21.75%, up 0.21%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.76%, up 0.22% [2]. Industry News - The US assesses that Iran's nuclear facilities are destroyed, and the nuclear program is postponed by 1 - 2 years [2]. - Trump announces a trade agreement with Vietnam, with 20% tariffs on Vietnamese exports to the US and 40% on transshipment goods [2]. - The US House of Representatives advances Trump's tax - cut and spending bill [2]. - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 74.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 25.3%. In September, the probability of unchanged rates is 7.6%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 69.7%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 22.8% [2]. - The market expects 110,000 new non - farm jobs in June, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%. The US ADP employment decreased by 33,000 in June, against an expected increase of 98,000 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold's medium - to long - term bullish logic remains intact. The global trend of de - dollarization drives continuous central bank gold - buying demand. The US twin deficits and economic downward pressure may prompt the Fed to turn to a loose monetary policy. If the tariff policy persists and increases inflation resilience, gold's anti - inflation appeal will strengthen. If the expectation of interest rate cuts becomes clearer, silver's industrial attributes and relative valuation advantages may boost the silver price, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline further. The report suggests paying attention to the range of 767 - 780 yuan/gram for the Shanghai Gold 2508 contract and 8630 - 8800 yuan/kilogram for the Shanghai Silver 2508 contract [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 771.86 yuan/gram, down 9.44 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 8739 yuan/kilogram, down 31 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 147343 lots, down 5119 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 341851 lots, down 6481 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract are 139204 lots, down 2488 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 113611 lots, up 5838 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 0 kilograms, down 18168 kilograms; that of silver is 0 kilograms, down 1247103 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price is 776 yuan/gram, down 3.8 yuan; the silver spot price is 8708 yuan/kilogram, up 1 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 4.14 yuan/gram, up 5.64 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 31 yuan/kilogram, up 32 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 957.4 tons, up 7.16 tons; silver ETF holdings are 14950.99 tons, up 200.71 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 200648 contracts, up 13167 contracts; those of silver are 67174 contracts, up 524 contracts. The total quarterly supply of gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global annual demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 15.76%, down 0.05%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 24.67%, down 0.12%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 24.01%, down 2.21%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 24%, down 2.24% [2] 3.5 Industry News - Iran announced a missile strike on the US military's Al - Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Trump announced an Iran - Israel cease - fire, but Iran denied it. The Fed's independence is interfered by Trump, and geopolitical risks intensify, putting pressure on Germany and Italy to repatriate over $245 billion in gold reserves. Fed Vice - Chair Bowman may support a rate cut as early as July. Fed's Goolsbee said that if the impact of trade policies disappears, the Fed should continue to cut rates. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 84.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 15.5%. The probability of keeping rates unchanged in September is 30%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 60%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 10% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The silver futures contract experienced a significant decline, dropping 1.91% to 8819 yuan/kg, following the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged, coupled with hawkish comments from Powell regarding inflation pressures [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Impact - The Federal Reserve announced to keep interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.5%, which was in line with market expectations [1]. - Powell's hawkish remarks indicated that rising inflation could hinder the rate cut process, suggesting potential inflationary pressures in the coming months [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalated, with Trump approving plans for strikes against Iran, although no attack orders were issued yet [1]. - Iran responded by highlighting the range of its missiles that could target multiple U.S. bases in the region, with its leadership firmly stating that Iran would not surrender [1]. - Ongoing airstrikes between Iran and Israel have not shown signs of resolution, raising concerns about potential U.S. involvement and its implications for the conflict [1]. Group 3: Market Implications - The lack of signals for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve suggests a weakening support for silver prices from monetary easing policies in the short term [1]. - The impact of geopolitical tensions on safe-haven investments like silver may increase if the U.S. directly engages in the conflict; otherwise, the influence of these tensions on the market may diminish [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The extension of Trump's tax - cut policy in his first term and the large - scale government spending cuts in the new bill have raised concerns about the expansion of the federal debt scale, leading to a weakening of the US dollar. The risk of the US dollar's credit has increased, which is a structural positive for the gold price. The Fed's latest statements maintain a cautious and wait - and - see tone, and the uncertainty of fiscal and tariff policies may delay the timing of interest rate cuts this year. In the medium - to - long - term, gold prices are still boosted by the safe - haven property and interest rate cut expectations. [2] - The tariff situation has reached a deadlock again, and the negotiations between the US, Japan, and the EU face great uncertainty. Against the background of the medium - to - long - term upward shift of the gold - silver ratio, the correlation between gold and silver price movements has declined. Recently, silver has mainly followed the upward trend of gold. In addition, silver's industrial demand remains strong, and its industrial attribute may maintain resilience. It is recommended to adopt a medium - to - long - term strategy of buying on dips. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 780.1 yuan/gram, up 1.32 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 8301 yuan/kg, up 29 yuan. [2] - **Positions**: The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold were 224,053 lots, up 1,559 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver were 383,991 lots, up 20,934 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract were 111,487 lots, up 4,976 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract were 175,940 lots, up 11,732 lots. [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of gold warehouse receipts was 17,247 kg, unchanged; the number of silver warehouse receipts was 949,197 kg, up 8,398 kg. [2] 3.2现货市场 - **Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 780.99 yuan/gram, up 7.2 yuan; the spot price of silver was 8,269 yuan/kg, up 73 yuan. [2] - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 0.89 yuan/gram, up 5.88 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 32 yuan/kg, up 44 yuan. [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 919.88 tons, down 1.72 tons; silver ETF holdings were 14,054.89 tons, unchanged. [2] - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 161,209 contracts, down 1,288 contracts; silver CTFC non - commercial net positions were 47,754 contracts, down 1,498 contracts. [2] - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces. [2] 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 32.82%, down 0.68 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 26.97%, down 0.06 percentage points. [2] - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 27.46%, up 0.43 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 27.47%, up 0.45 percentage points. [2] 3.5 Industry News - A new tax bill extends Trump's tax - cut policy in his first term and cuts government spending to pay for tax cuts. The market is worried that this will lead to an expansion of the federal debt scale, and the CBO estimates that it will increase the federal deficit by $1.8 trillion from 2026 - 2035. [2] - Two Fed officials said the Fed can be patient and evaluate upcoming data before adjusting policies. [2] - The EU is expected to submit a revised trade proposal to the US to promote negotiations with the Trump administration. [2] - The Middle East situation is tense. Iran is evaluating participation in the next round of negotiations with the US, and Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities if the US - Iran negotiations break down. [2] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 94.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 5.4%. In July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 73.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 25.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 1.2%. [2] 3.6 Operation Suggestions - For the Shanghai Gold 2508 contract, focus on the range of 758 - 805 yuan/gram; for the Shanghai Silver 2508 contract, focus on the range of 8,200 - 8,390 yuan/kg. For COMEX gold futures, focus on the range of $3,240 - $3,380 per ounce; for COMEX silver futures, focus on the range of $32.9 - $34.0 per ounce. [2]

暂时观望为主，沪金2508合约关注区间：760-800元/克；沪银2508合约关注区间：8100-8400元/千克。 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 振黄金的抗通胀属性。黄金的结构性利多因素仍未松动，美国债务扩张导致美元信用边际转弱，以及全球 去美元化趋势下央行购金需求稳固，为金价提供中长线支撑。白银方面，受中美贸易格局缓和预期提振， 免责声明 全球经济下行预期转弱，白银的工业和商品属性的提振支撑银价，短期内金银比有望回落。操作上建议， 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 贵金属产业日报 2025-05-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市 ...