Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the response of Li Bei, founder of Hanxia Investment, to a critical piece published by Huxiu, highlighting the strong influence and performance of Li Bei in the private equity sector. The discussion revolves around the risks in current asset allocation strategies and the potential for investment opportunities in a changing economic landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Current Market Risks - Li Bei identifies significant risks in mainstream asset allocation, which is heavily concentrated in four strategies: quantitative enhancement, sci-tech funds, all-weather strategies, and overseas assets. Each of these strategies carries distinct risks, such as the impact of small-cap factors and the potential fallout from the AI bubble in the U.S. [2] - The current valuations of these strategies are considered high, and the crowded positions pose substantial risks, particularly if economic conditions shift [2][7]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Hanxia's current portfolio is characterized by a "deep value" approach, focusing on industry leaders with an average PE of 8 times, PB of 0.8 times, and a dividend yield of 5%. Approximately 80% of the holdings exhibit strong cyclical characteristics [3][4]. - The portfolio also includes strategies to steepen the yield curve by buying medium- to short-term government bonds while shorting long-term bonds, which is expected to mitigate losses during prolonged deflation [5][6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Li Bei categorizes the future economic scenario into two possibilities: a reversal of deflation, which would negatively impact the mainstream strategies but benefit Hanxia's investments, and a continuation of deflation, where Hanxia may experience slight losses or gains while mainstream strategies continue to rise [6][10]. - The article notes that the current market's asset concentration poses a significant risk, as evidenced by past instances of severe sell-offs in crowded trades, such as in the renewable energy sector [7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The future market dynamics may not simply be a binary outcome of either technology growth or cyclical recovery. If AI technology continues to evolve and applications expand, the tech market may persist, while cyclical sectors could also gain recognition if their fundamentals improve [8]. - The article emphasizes that even in a recovering economic environment, both cyclical and tech sectors could thrive simultaneously, depending on market conditions and investor sentiment [8][10]. Group 5: Investment Philosophy - Li Bei's investment philosophy suggests that diversifying into Hanxia's products, which are inversely correlated with mainstream assets, can effectively reduce overall portfolio volatility. The low valuation and high dividend characteristics of Hanxia's holdings provide strong downside protection in volatile markets [9]. - However, this strategy relies heavily on accurate macroeconomic predictions, and if deflation persists longer than expected, the appeal of these cyclical assets may diminish for short-term investors [10].

我们在财富一线看到的配置情况，确实如此： 看规模： 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：寻瑕记 蓓姐在最新的文章里，直指当前高净值群体资产配置的现实，有四大核心重仓： 1，量化增强。本质上是配置了不少小盘股，风险点一个是在size因子，另一个是非线性因子。 2，科创基金。风险点一个是国内利率回升引发风格转换，一个是美国AI资本开支预期下修导致AI泡沫 破灭。 3，全天候策略。风险点一个是利率回升引发底座债券持仓亏损，另一个是黄金下跌。 4，海外资产。风险点是一个是人民币汇率，一个是美国AI。 ①两融：去年924以来，融资余额合计净增1.1万亿，远超同期主动权益的规模增量，融资盘最大的配置 方向，是龙头科技为首的TMT板块； ②私募：2024年底，私募基金的总规模是5.21万亿，今年10月底增长到了7.01万亿，增加了1.8万亿，保 守估计1.5万亿都是量化私募； ③ETF：2025年，ETF总规模从年初的约3.73万亿激增至5.74万亿，年内规模增长超2万亿，增速超过 53%，增量最大的四个方向是，科创债、恒生科技、黄金ETF和沪深300ETF。 其中，近期被大家热 ...

Core Insights - The wealth health index of China's new affluent population is projected to slightly decline from 70.51 to 70.35 in 2025, indicating a decrease in wealth confidence, financial planning, and investment participation sub-indices [1] - Despite the overall decline, the asset management sub-index has shown improvement, reflecting a growing maturity in wealth management and asset allocation behaviors among the new affluent [1] Group 1: Wealth Management Trends - Nearly 48.6% of respondents have retirement planning, with significant increases observed among the 25-44 age group and high-income earners [1] - The average allocation of cash and fixed deposits in the asset configuration of the new affluent has decreased to 52.5%, marking a shift towards more diversified investment strategies [1] - The participation rate in fund investments has reached a five-year high, with the average allocation of funds in investment portfolios rising to 12.4% [1] Group 2: Investment Preferences - There is a notable interest in overseas asset allocation, with nearly 38.8% of respondents expressing interest in this area [1] - The new affluent population is increasingly active in exploring diverse investment paths, particularly in the context of declining risk-free interest rates [1] Group 3: Attitudes Towards AI in Financial Services - The new affluent population in China shows a significantly higher trust in AI-generated investment advice compared to overseas markets, with nearly 70% expressing strong or moderate trust [2] - More aggressive investors tend to have higher trust levels in AI, while those with over 15 years of investment experience prefer human advisory services [2] - AI is recognized for its strengths in technical analysis, while human advisors excel in emotional support and understanding client needs [2]

Core Insights - The "Wealth Health Index" for China's new affluent population shows a slight decline in 2025, indicating a decrease in wealth confidence, financial planning, and investment participation, while asset management awareness is improving [1][2] Group 1: Wealth Health Index - The Wealth Health Index for new affluent individuals in China decreased from 70.51 to 70.35 in 2025, with sub-indices for wealth confidence, financial planning, and investment participation declining by 0.26, 2.47, and 0.14 points respectively [1] - The asset management sub-index, after four years of decline, has shown an upward trend, indicating a maturation in wealth management and asset allocation behaviors among this demographic [1] Group 2: Investment Behavior - The average allocation of cash and fixed deposits in the asset configuration of new affluent individuals has dropped to 52.5%, marking the first decline in this category [2] - The participation rate in fund investments has reached a five-year high, with the average allocation to funds increasing to 12.4% [2] - Nearly 40% of respondents expressed interest in overseas asset allocation, reflecting a growing inclination towards diversified investment paths [2] Group 3: Risk Preferences and Financial Literacy - Despite an increase in the allocation to high-risk financial assets, the subjective risk preference of new affluent individuals remains conservative [2] - There is a noted shortfall in understanding the relationship between risk and return, highlighting the need for improved financial literacy [2] Group 4: AI in Financial Services - The study also focused on the new affluent population's attitudes towards AI-enabled financial services, revealing a significantly higher trust in AI-generated investment advice compared to overseas markets, with nearly 70% expressing strong or moderate trust [2] - More aggressive investors showed higher trust levels in AI, while those with over 15 years of investment experience preferred human services [2]

美国总统特朗普的政策引发市场动荡，亚洲的寿险公司面临数十亿美元帐面损失。新台币飙升，让中国 台湾的保险公司持有的逾23万亿元台币 （7,620亿美元）海外资产承压。随着长期政府公债收益率飙升 至数十年来的最高水平，日本的保险公司也受到冲击。分析师警告称，保险业面临巨大风险，高盛估 计，光是中国台湾的保险公司帐面损失就可能达到约180亿美元。（彭博） ...