文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天上涨后，自由现金流指数也基本回到正常估值，耐心等待后续低估机会。 价值风格上涨，也带动 月薪宝 （点击查看）、 365天组合 （点击查看）比较强势。 今天上涨后，月薪宝、365也创下历史新高。 成长风格相对低迷。 今天大盘整体微涨，波动不大，还在4.1星。 大中盘股略微上涨。 市场还是风格轮动。 自由现金流等价值风格连续几周上涨。 创业板、科创板继续下跌。 这两个板块基本面没啥问题，今年三季度盈利同比增长良好。 主要是前段时间估值偏高，都达到了高估，之后出现了估值回落。 消费医药今天上涨较多。 白酒等指数大幅上涨。 港股也整体上涨。 港股里，之前低估的港股红利、港股消费也大幅上涨。 其实今年9月底，大盘上涨到4.1星之后，估值表里绿色低估的品种，就主要剩下红利、自由现金流、消费、医药等几个领域。 到了10月份，这些剩下的低估品种也开始上涨了。 红利、自由现金流先上涨；最近消费、医药也开始补涨。低估品种都会有上涨的阶段。 估计到3点几星的时候，估值表里绿色低估的就没剩啥了，类似21年初那样。 1. 今天上涨，也是因为周末发布了最新的基本面数据。 国内CPI（消费者物价 ...

Domestic Focus - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on September 29 to discuss major issues regarding the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing high-quality development and new development concepts [1] - The Ministry of Transport announced a special port fee for American ships starting October 14 in response to the U.S. 301 investigation into China's shipbuilding industry [1] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued four announcements on October 9 regarding export controls on superhard materials, rare earth equipment, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [1] - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, cross-regional personnel flow reached 2.433 billion person-times, averaging 304 million person-times per day, a 6.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [1] International Focus - On October 10, U.S. President Trump announced a 100% additional tariff on all goods imported from China starting November 1, 2025, along with strict export controls on critical U.S. manufacturing software [2] - The U.S. Senate rejected a temporary funding bill on October 1, leading to a government shutdown affecting approximately 750,000 federal employees and potentially delaying economic data releases [2] Market Overview - The A-share market showed an upward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3900 points, while the AI industry chain experienced a period of consolidation [5] - The bond market saw a significant decline in yields following the announcement of additional tariffs on Chinese imports, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping by 4 basis points to 1.82% [7] - The gold price reached a new high, surpassing $4000 per ounce, driven by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to the government shutdown [7] Market Outlook - The equity market is expected to maintain a positive trend, transitioning from a liquidity-driven market to one supported by fundamentals, with a focus on technology sectors such as AI and innovative pharmaceuticals [8] - The bond market may experience limited downward yield movement due to ongoing U.S.-China negotiations, with a potential for increased allocation opportunities in the medium term [9] - The real estate market is stabilizing due to effective policy measures, with a need for close monitoring of high-frequency data to prevent downturns similar to late 2024 and early 2025 [10]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 3900 points, marking a nearly 10-year high, and a daily trading volume exceeding 2.2 trillion yuan, a record since 2010 [1][3] - Analysts suggest that the current market rally is supported by macroeconomic recovery and policy backing, indicating a potential "slow bull" market characterized by sustainable growth [1][2] - Various analysts have differing views on the nature of the current market rally, with some suggesting it is a "quantitative bull" transitioning to a "comprehensive bull," while others see it as a "transformation bull" driven by economic restructuring [1][4] Group 2 - The policy environment is playing a crucial role in restoring market confidence, with significant measures introduced to stabilize expectations and enhance market vitality, particularly in the context of new capital market reforms [2][3] - The integration of strategic emerging industries with China's efficient infrastructure and manufacturing capabilities is reshaping the economic model and enhancing competitive strength on a global scale [6][7] - Long-term capital inflows from pension funds, insurance, and public funds are positively impacting the A-share market, indicating a shift towards more sustainable investment strategies [3][7] Group 3 - The current market is expected to outperform overseas markets, driven by domestic policy support and the involvement of state-owned funds, which provide a solid foundation for the economic fundamentals [7][8] - The ongoing low-interest-rate environment is prompting investors to adjust their asset allocation strategies, favoring equity investments over traditional savings [8] - The rapid development of AI and other technological advancements is anticipated to drive economic transformation and improve market fundamentals, contributing to a more durable market trend [7][8]