www.lhratings.com 研究报告 0 降息、分化与突围： 中国消费金融市场竞争格局重塑 与转型路径探析 联合资信 金融评级一部 |马鸣娇 |王 柠 |王从飞 |林 璐 我国消费金融 40 年从"银行信用卡独大"逐步走向"科技驱动的普惠生态"，在扩内需、促消费的大背景下，消费金 融行业整体规模保持增长，但增速放缓的趋势下行业或进入存量经营时代，部分参与主体面临一定业务转型压力，行 业格局或将重塑。利率上限与 LPR 持续下行等因素对消费金融行业参与主体获客及风控能力的考验加大，市场竞争、 客群分层、行业分化将进一步加剧，头部机构优势将进一步凸显，自主风控能力、精细化管理与客户运营能力将成为 未来行业的核心竞争力。助贷新规的出台短期内给行业带来较大的冲击，但从长期来看，监管导向推动各机构摒弃高 利率覆盖高风险的业务模式，向更精细化的风控能力和风险定价的经营模式转变，随着主流机构科技实力和风控能力 的不断提升，以及尾部机构的逐步出清，消费金融行业将步入规范化发展阶段。 一、消费金融行业发展历程及监管政策 消费金融主要是向各阶层消费者提供以消费为目的的小额贷款服务，具有单笔额 度小、审批快、无抵押担保、期 ...

中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平 出席会议并发表重要讲话，总结2025年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工作。陕西各界 认真学习领会中央经济工作会议精神。大家纷纷表示，要坚定信心、勠力进取，为实现"十五五"良好开 局贡献力量。 "会议提出，坚持对外开放，推动多领域合作共赢。我深切感受到党中央坚持扩大高水平对外开 放、以开放促改革促发展的战略定力和长远考量。这为我们今后工作指明了方向。"西安国际港集团有 限公司总经理袁小军说，"十五五"期间，公司将围绕服务共建"一带一路"，加快打造中亚和跨里海线路 全国集结中心，加快推进俄罗斯莫斯科谢利亚季诺、阿塞拜疆巴库等海外场站建设，推动国际物流网络 实现多点"枢纽对枢纽"升级，不断提升通道组织能力和综合竞争力。同时，实施场站智能化工程，加快 建设自动化、数字化、无人化的智慧码头管理系统，推动装卸、监管和调度全流程智慧化运行，在更高 水平对外开放中展现新担当、实现新作为。 "会议部署坚持'双碳'引领，推动全面绿色转型重点任务，为生态环境保护工作指明了方向、提供 了遵循。"安康市生态环境局旬阳分局局长张 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant role of non-bank financial institutions, such as trust companies and consumer finance companies, in supporting agricultural development and rural revitalization in China, particularly during the harvest season. Group 1: Trust Companies - Trust companies have established various charitable trusts aimed at rural revitalization projects in regions like Hunan, Shanxi, and Tibet, providing substantial financial support for local agricultural initiatives [3][4]. - As of September 18, 2025, there are 170 charitable trusts registered under the name "rural revitalization," with a total asset scale of approximately 1.225 billion yuan, including a notable project established in 2023 with a scale of 257.66 million yuan [3][4]. - Trust companies are innovating specialized trust products and services tailored to local agricultural needs, contributing to infrastructure upgrades and enhancing agricultural productivity [3][4][8]. Group 2: Consumer Finance - Consumer finance companies are providing timely loans to farmers, addressing immediate financial needs for repairs and improvements, thereby enhancing their quality of life [5][6]. - These companies are developing financial products that align with the seasonal cycles of agricultural production, ensuring that financial support meets the diverse needs of rural residents [7]. - Initiatives such as planting goji berry trees in Ningxia demonstrate how consumer finance can intertwine ecological protection with economic benefits for farmers, creating a sustainable income model [7][8]. Group 3: Financial Leasing and Collaboration - The issuance of the first green financial bond for rural revitalization by a financial leasing company, with a scale of 3.5 billion yuan, opens new financing avenues for supporting rural initiatives [8]. - Financial leasing companies are increasingly focusing on small and micro enterprises, with a reported 32.49% growth in principal balances for loans under 30 million yuan as of June 2025 [8]. - Collaboration among various financial institutions, government bodies, and agricultural enterprises is essential for creating a comprehensive service framework that meets the diverse financial needs of rural communities [9].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and other regulatory bodies have issued guidelines to enhance financial support for consumption, aiming to stabilize economic growth and consumer expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Key Areas of Focus - The guidelines emphasize the importance of boosting consumption as a key driver for domestic demand and economic growth, especially as external demand weakens [2]. - Six main areas are identified for enhancing consumption: increasing consumer capacity, expanding financial supply for consumption, unlocking consumer potential, improving supply efficiency, optimizing the consumption environment, and providing policy support [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Support for Consumption - The focus is on three main consumption sectors: goods consumption, service consumption, and new consumption types, with specific measures to support each area [2][3]. - For goods consumption, the guidelines propose innovative consumer credit products and support for trade enterprises to enhance domestic sales [2]. - In service consumption, increased financing support is directed towards sectors like retail, hospitality, and elder care, with an emphasis on innovative financing models [3]. Group 3: Expanding Financial Supply - The guidelines encourage the establishment of a multi-layered consumer finance service system, enhancing credit support through various financing channels such as bonds and equity [4]. - Financial institutions are urged to innovate and optimize credit products while increasing support for qualified enterprises in sectors like culture, tourism, and education [4]. Group 4: Enhancing Consumer Capacity - The guidelines highlight the need to improve residents' income levels as a critical factor in stimulating consumption, with measures to support entrepreneurship and wealth management [5][6]. - Infrastructure improvements in logistics and supply chains are also emphasized to enhance the efficiency of consumption supply [6]. Group 5: Optimizing the Consumption Environment - The guidelines propose enhancing consumer payment services, building a robust credit system, and protecting consumer rights to create a more favorable consumption environment [6]. - The People's Bank of China will work with relevant departments to implement these policies and monitor their effectiveness [6].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy and service industry operating entity loan interest subsidy policy is a significant measure by the government to boost domestic demand, stimulate market vitality, and improve people's livelihoods [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - Several major state-owned banks have expressed their commitment to effectively implement the personal consumption loan and service industry loan interest subsidy policies [1]. - The subsidy policy aims to reduce the financing costs for residents and alleviate the financing pressure on service industry entities, thereby facilitating economic circulation and injecting strong momentum into the economic recovery [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Analysis - From a micro perspective, the direct subsidy of specific loan interest by fiscal funds lowers the credit threshold for residents purchasing large consumer goods, directly releasing consumption potential [2]. - The focus on the service industry rather than manufacturing in the subsidy policy addresses the current structural imbalance of "strong production, weak demand," helping to restore cash flow and balance sheets in the service sector [2]. - The policy combines fiscal "precise drip irrigation" and asymmetric monetary policy easing, significantly amplifying the effectiveness of fiscal funds and alleviating the current insufficient demand for real entity credit [2]. Group 3: Bank Responses - Major banks, such as Agricultural Bank and Construction Bank, have initiated various activities to support consumption and expand domestic demand, including promoting consumption upgrade programs and optimizing financial services [3][4]. - Agricultural Bank has developed a special action plan to support consumption upgrades and enhance financial service quality, while Construction Bank is actively participating in the distribution of national consumption subsidy funds [3][4]. - Banks are committed to simplifying application processes and ensuring that the subsidy policies are effectively transmitted to consumers and service industry entities [3][4].

Group 1 - The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference prioritizes "boosting consumption, improving investment efficiency, and expanding domestic demand" as the main task for 2025 economic work [1] - Various policies have been implemented this year, including special actions to boost consumption, trade-in programs for consumer goods, and consumption subsidies, leading to stable growth in the consumption market [1] - On July 31, the State Council announced the implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies and service industry loan interest subsidy policies to lower credit costs for residents and financing costs for service industry entities [1] Group 2 - China Construction Bank has initiated a consumption finance special action themed "Boosting Consumption and Expanding Domestic Demand" to enhance financial supply and support consumption [2] - The bank is leveraging the "Construction Bank Life" platform to participate in the distribution of national consumption subsidy funds and explore a "government subsidy + financial rights" service model [2] - Construction Bank aims to enhance market confidence and drive development by providing tailored credit products for service industry entities and increasing the supply of inclusive financial credit [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand as a primary economic task, with a focus on the "old-for-new" policy for consumer goods [1][2] - The implementation of the "old-for-new" policy has led to significant sales growth, with over 1.6 trillion yuan in sales from five major categories of consumer goods by mid-2024, surpassing the previous year's figures [1] - The government has allocated 300 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the "old-for-new" initiative, indicating strong policy backing for consumption [1] Group 2 - The recycling process for old appliances is currently inefficient, with only 20% of waste electronics being recycled through formal channels, leading to environmental concerns [3][4] - The establishment of a comprehensive recycling system is crucial for enhancing consumer participation in the "old-for-new" program, ensuring that old products are handled by qualified entities [4][6] - Recent government initiatives aim to improve the logistics and recycling network for old products, promoting a more efficient "exchange + recycling" model [4][5] Group 3 - Some businesses have engaged in unethical practices, such as price inflation before applying government subsidies, undermining the effectiveness of the "old-for-new" policy [7][8] - Regulatory bodies have intensified oversight to combat these practices, with various regions implementing strict measures against violators [8][9] - The use of big data and technology is recommended to enhance consumer protection and prevent fraudulent activities in the market [9] Group 4 - Consumer finance products, such as installment plans, are becoming essential in facilitating the "old-for-new" policy, with significant sales increases reported in stores that offer these options [10][11] - Financial support for service industry operators is also emphasized, with calls for increased green credit to support sustainable consumption practices [11] - The integration of consumer finance with the "old-for-new" measures is seen as a way to enhance consumer experience and stimulate market activity [11]

Group 1 - The narrow growth gap between M1 and M2 indicates a significant increase in the liquidity of the economy, with M1 growing by 4.6% year-on-year as of June, a notable rise of 2.3 percentage points from May [1] - The acceleration in M1 growth reflects enhanced economic activity, driven by recent financial policies that have restored market confidence and stimulated effective demand [1] - The ongoing transformation of the domestic economy necessitates a focus on expanding effective domestic demand, particularly in consumption [1] Group 2 - China's multi-tiered consumer finance service system has developed significantly, with credit support playing a crucial role in stabilizing the consumer market [2] - Structural contradictions in the consumption sector remain prominent, particularly in high-quality service areas such as tourism, healthcare, and elder care, indicating a need for improved financial products and services [2] - Recent initiatives by the People's Bank of China aim to enhance service consumption supply, which is a key direction for future macroeconomic policies to promote consumption [2] Group 3 - Increasing residents' income levels is essential for stimulating consumption potential, with estimates suggesting that a 1% increase in the income share of low- and middle-income groups could generate an additional 250 billion yuan in consumption [3] - Future efforts should focus on improving disposable income and enhancing social security levels in areas such as healthcare and education to boost consumer capacity and willingness [3] - Strengthening the macroeconomic foundation and improving employment and income levels are critical for enhancing consumption efficiency and environment [3]

Core Viewpoint - Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC) is committed to enhancing consumer finance services to stimulate consumption, aligning with national policies and leveraging its strengths in both urban and rural markets [1][2][3] Group 1: Urban Market Strategy - PSBC adopts differentiated credit policies to support consumption demand in high-capacity cities, focusing on first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, as well as strong second-tier cities such as Hangzhou and Chengdu [2] - The bank aims to deepen customer relationships by addressing high-net-worth individuals' large consumption credit needs, particularly in housing [2] - PSBC is developing a nationwide consumer credit business model that leverages partnerships with leading enterprises to enhance marketing effectiveness [2] Group 2: Rural Market Potential - The bank recognizes the significant consumption potential in rural areas, supported by a vast network of nearly 40,000 outlets covering about 99% of counties [3] - In 2024, PSBC plans to issue over 100 billion yuan in personal consumption loans in rural areas, promoting financial inclusion and supporting new urbanization and rural revitalization [3] Group 3: Technological Empowerment - PSBC is enhancing its digital infrastructure to improve service quality and customer experience, including online loan applications and pre-approval features [4][6] - The bank is implementing a paperless loan process and integrating online property registration services to streamline customer interactions [4][6] Group 4: Comprehensive Service Development - PSBC is creating a one-stop consumer finance service platform to meet diverse customer needs, including home purchases, renovations, and vehicle financing [7] - The bank is leveraging big data to tailor credit offerings to individual customer profiles, enhancing accessibility to consumer credit [7] Group 5: Support for Military Personnel - PSBC is actively promoting financial services tailored for military personnel, including exclusive housing and vehicle loans, with over 1 billion yuan in loans issued to date [8] - The bank's initiatives aim to alleviate financial burdens on military families and foster a supportive community environment [8] Group 6: Financial Relief Measures - PSBC is refining its post-loan service system to provide financial relief for customers facing temporary economic difficulties, adjusting repayment plans based on individual circumstances [9] - The bank is focused on enhancing consumer confidence and willingness to borrow by offering flexible repayment options that align with income fluctuations [9]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China and five other departments have jointly issued guidelines to enhance financial support for consumption, aiming to stimulate high-quality consumption and unlock consumer potential through 19 key measures across six areas [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Support for Consumption - The guidelines emphasize financial support for key areas of consumption, including goods, services, and new types of consumption [2]. - For goods consumption, the focus is on innovating and optimizing consumer credit products to meet diverse consumer needs and enhancing financial support for foreign trade enterprises [2]. - In service consumption, the guidelines propose increased financing support for sectors like retail, hospitality, and elder care, while also promoting innovative financing models in cultural, sports, and educational services [2]. Group 2: Enhancing Financial Supply - The guidelines call for improved professional service capabilities among financial institutions, encouraging them to issue loans to key service sectors to enhance service quality [3]. - A specific loan quota of 500 billion yuan is set for service consumption and elderly care, allowing major financial institutions to apply for refinancing based on the principal of loans issued [3]. - The guidelines also highlight the importance of increasing residents' income levels as a key support for boosting consumption [3]. Group 3: Optimizing Consumption Environment - The guidelines propose that financial institutions focus on enhancing payment convenience across key consumption scenarios, improving compatibility among various payment methods [4]. - There is an emphasis on improving payment services for elderly individuals and foreign visitors, as well as promoting the trial implementation of digital currency in consumption [4].