Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the US dollar index is attributed to higher-than-expected US CPI data, which reduces the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. This has led to a mixed performance of the Chinese yuan against the dollar, with the yuan's middle rate reaching a low of 7.1461, while the spot trading price has shown a depreciation trend [1][5][10]. Group 1: US Dollar and Economic Indicators - The US dollar index has seen a continuous rise, with a cumulative increase of over 2% as of July 17, marking the longest upward trend this year [1]. - The US June CPI data exceeded expectations, with core inflation at 2.9%, which is still above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [5][6]. - The likelihood of a rate cut in September has decreased, with current market pricing showing only a 53.5% chance of a cut, down from 59.3% [5]. Group 2: Impact on Chinese Yuan - The Chinese yuan has shown signs of weakness against the dollar, with a depreciation of over 200 points in recent days, despite the middle rate signaling stability [1][10]. - The yuan's middle rate has deviated from model predictions by nearly -240 points, indicating a potential adjustment to strengthen the yuan [10]. - The future exchange rate of USD/CNY is expected to follow the dollar index's movements, but the depreciation of the yuan may be less pronounced, with estimates suggesting a 1:5 ratio of dollar index strength to yuan depreciation [11]. Group 3: Tariff Effects and Inflation - The impact of tariffs is beginning to show, with significant price increases in home goods and appliances, which are key categories affected by tariffs [6][7]. - There is a concern that as inventory levels deplete, inflation may rise due to the need for businesses to restock, potentially leading to cost pass-through to consumers [8]. - Labor shortages in key industries due to immigration policies may also contribute to upward wage pressures, further influencing inflation [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs remains high, with potential for increased actions from the Trump administration as tariff revenues rise [12]. - Concerns exist regarding the sustainability of the US fiscal policy, with expectations that the costs of new fiscal stimulus may outweigh its economic benefits [13]. - The forecast for US 10-year Treasury yields is projected to reach 4.9% in Q4, influenced by ongoing budget deficits and market volatility [13].

5月29日，瑞银资产管理公司全球主权市场策略与咨询主管马西米利亚诺·卡斯泰利（Massimiliano Castelli）对第一财经表示，以前几乎没有机构会质疑美元信用，但今年开始这成为诸多客户会上被 提及的问题。目前主流机构还没有出现明显的"去美元化"趋势，美元作为全球储备货币的地位仍将 长期保持，但多元化配置、加大对美元资产持仓的对冲比例是切实在发生的事。 据记者了解，作为多元化配置趋势的体现，近年来除了黄金被多数机构增持，欧洲股票、日元、澳大 利亚元等资产近期亦受到追捧，国际投资者对于港股的兴趣同样在回升。 大规模去美元化未启 4月，美国实施"对等关税"政策，一度引发全球金融市场恐慌，美元指数跌破100大关，随后更跌入 98区间，创下阶段新低。日元、欧元今年以来对美元升值5%~10%。 2025.05. 30 本文字数：2725，阅读时长大约4.5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 周艾琳 在关税政策等不确定性下，美国股债汇"三杀"频现，美元信用遭遇动摇。"去美元化"和"多元化配 置"成为近期多场国际投资峰会上，投资机构及其客户热议的关键词。 "4月以来，作为传统避险资产的美债，似乎成为了风险本身。一方面是今年有 ...

在关税政策等不确定性下，美国股债汇"三杀"频现，美元信用遭遇动摇。"去美元化"和"多元化配置"成 为近期多场国际投资峰会上，投资机构及其客户热议的关键词。 5月29日，瑞银资产管理公司全球主权市场策略与咨询主管马西米利亚诺·卡斯泰利（Massimiliano Castelli）对第一财经表示，以前几乎没有机构会质疑美元信用，但今年开始这成为诸多客户会上被提 及的问题。目前主流机构还没有出现明显的"去美元化"趋势，美元作为全球储备货币的地位仍将长期保 持，但多元化配置、加大对美元资产持仓的对冲比例是切实在发生的事。 据记者了解，作为多元化配置趋势的体现，近年来除了黄金被多数机构增持，欧洲股票、日元、澳大利 亚元等资产近期亦受到追捧，国际投资者对于港股的兴趣同样在回升。 大规模去美元化未启 4月，美国实施"对等关税"政策，一度引发全球金融市场恐慌，美元指数跌破100大关，随后更跌入98区 间，创下阶段新低。日元、欧元今年以来对美元升值5%~10%。 多元化配置、加大对美元资产持仓的对冲比例是切实在发生的事 在华尔街看来，美元此前被高估了10%~20%。这种高估缘于美国"例外主义"——过去十多年里，美国 优异的资产 ...