智通财经APP获悉，国盛证券发布研报称，供给端，受制于需求下滑及进口矿成本上移，国内锑品冶炼 加工承压，7月产量出现明显下滑。该行预计2025-2027年资源+再生锑供应分别为11.2/11.9/12.7万吨， 需求端分别为13.1/13.9/14.8万吨，供需缺口维持相对刚性。中长期看，锑行业供需基本面足够优秀，同 时地缘博弈下锑战略金属属性凸显、行政管控或放大供需矛盾，该行看好锑价中长期高位运行。持有优 质资源的矿企有望长期受益于锑行业景气向上。 7月锑品出口延续低位，进口原料成本抬升。7月锑精矿进口2307吨，同环比-63%/+26%，1-7月锑精矿 进口2.02万吨，同比-37%;7月进口均价为3.54万元/吨，环比+48%。7月氧化锑出口74吨，上月为87吨， 连续3个月维持百吨级出口，大幅低于上半年有限放开时千吨级出口水平;未锻轧锑本月无出口。 消费转淡叠加成本压力，7月锑品产量大幅下滑 供给端：7月国内锑锭产量3729吨，同环比-36%/-25%;1-7月锑锭产量4.03万吨，同比-6%。7月国内焦锑 酸钠产量1915吨，同环比-41%/-2%;1-7月焦锑酸钠产量1.35万吨，同比-47%。需 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 26 年 月 日 小金属 锑：7 月供应大幅下滑，锑品出口收紧或接近尾声 价格：截至 8 月 22 日，据亚洲金属网，国内锑精矿价格 15.2 万元/吨， 较 8 月初持平，内盘锑锭价格 17.9 万元/吨，较 8 月初持平，外盘锑锭价 格 49.3 万元/吨（含税），较 8 月初跌 3%，内外盘价差 31 万元/吨。 进出口：7 月锑品出口延续低位，进口原料成本抬升。7 月锑精矿进口 2307 吨，同环比-63%/+26%，1-7 月锑精矿进口 2.02 万吨，同比-37%；7 月 进口均价为 3.54 万元/吨，环比+48%。7 月氧化锑出口 74 吨，上月为 87 吨，连续 3 个月维持百吨级出口，大幅低于上半年有限放开时千吨级出口 水平；未锻轧锑本月无出口。 消费转淡叠加成本压力，7 月锑品产量大幅下滑。供给端：7 月国内锑锭 产量 3729 吨，同环比-36%/-25%；1-7 月锑锭产量 4.03 万吨，同比-6%。 7 月国内焦锑酸钠产量 1915 吨，同环比-41%/-2%；1-7 月焦锑酸钠产量 1.35 万吨，同比-47 ...

Summary of Antimony Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The global antimony production has sharply decreased, with an estimated 100,000 tons of metal equivalent from mining raw materials in 2024, comparable to China's production a decade ago, primarily due to a lack of new large antimony mines and neglect of antimony production in associated ores, leading to rising antimony prices [2][3] - China remains the largest antimony smelting country globally, with smelting products exceeding 100,000 tons in 2024, relying on approximately 30% of raw materials imported from countries like Myanmar, Thailand, and Tajikistan [2][5] - Other countries such as Oman, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkey have antimony smelting plants, but they face challenges like insufficient raw materials or poor quality [2][6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global antimony supply-demand balance for 2024 is roughly stable, with total demand around 110,000 to 120,000 tons, where flame retardants account for about half of the consumption [2][7] - The lead-acid battery sector shows stable demand but faces uncertainty due to the rise of lithium batteries [2][8] - China's antimony consumption in 2024 is projected at approximately 72,000 tons, representing about 70% of global consumption, with 35% used in flame retardants and the remainder in lead alloys, polyester, and photovoltaic glass [12] Export Control Policies - Starting August 2024, China will implement export controls on antimony products to counteract U.S. and Western technology blockades, complicating the export approval process [4][13] - The approval process involves multiple departments, and the first batch of approvals is expected by the end of the month or early next month [14][19] Economic Impact and Challenges - Despite a significant drop in export volume (down 70-80% in the first half of 2025), the economic impact on domestic antimony companies is limited due to rising prices, with the export value decline being less than 50% [15] - The industry faces challenges such as smuggling and strengthened export controls, which have affected the export of antimony products [15] Recycling and Recovery - Antimony is one of the most challenging metals to recycle, with only about 20% of the annual demand of 120,000 tons being recoverable, primarily from lead-acid batteries [17][20] - The recycling rates in the U.S. are relatively advanced, but the overall recoverable amount remains low [18] Technological and Competitive Landscape - Chinese companies lead in smelting technology, achieving the best recovery rates, which gives them a competitive edge over other countries like Oman and Turkey, which lack advanced technology [24][25] - New innovative processing techniques are being developed, such as the acidic wet method by Hunan Gold Company, which can process over 10,000 tons of metal [26] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The photovoltaic glass industry currently demands about 10,000 tons of antimony, with stable procurement and ordering despite facing challenges [29] - The flame retardant market is experiencing pressure due to rising prices, leading to the emergence of substitutes, which could permanently affect demand if prices remain excessively high [30] Conclusion - The antimony industry is navigating a complex landscape of supply constraints, regulatory changes, and evolving market demands, with significant implications for pricing and production strategies moving forward.

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Maintain Buy" [5] Core Viewpoints - Antimony prices have stabilized after a significant decline, indicating a potential bottoming out [2][13] - The export policy is showing signs of marginal easing, which may lead to an upward convergence of domestic antimony prices [3][42] - The supply-demand fundamentals for the antimony industry are strong, with expectations for long-term high prices due to geopolitical factors and administrative controls [3][42] Summary by Sections Antimony Price Review - As of July 11, antimony concentrate prices were 151,500 CNY/ton, down 31% from the April peak, while antimony ingot prices were 178,500 CNY/ton, down 28% [1][10] - The price difference between domestic and international markets has widened to 330,000 CNY/ton due to export controls and supply-demand imbalances [1][10] Demand Analysis - The demand for flame retardants has shown resilience, with prices for flame retardant masterbatches increasing by 90% from January to April, followed by a modest decline of 11% from April to July [2][13] - The photovoltaic glass sector has seen a significant increase in installation volumes, but actual installations have remained flat compared to the previous year due to delays [21][23] Supply Dynamics - Antimony ore imports decreased by 24% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, with a significant price increase of 39% month-on-month in May [31] - Domestic production of antimony ingots and sodium antimonate has declined sharply, with a 25% year-on-year drop in June production [31][32] Investment Recommendations - Companies with quality resources in the antimony sector are expected to benefit from the industry's upward trend. Recommended companies include Huayu Mining, Hunan Gold, and Huaxi Nonferrous [4][42]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the metal antimony industry Core Insights - The demand for metal antimony in China is projected to increase from 7.95 million tons in 2021 to 9.37 million tons in 2023, with a slight decline expected thereafter [10] - The demand for antimony in flame retardants is expected to stabilize around 4.0 million tons from 2024 to 2030 [11] - The demand for antimony in photovoltaic glass is anticipated to grow significantly, reaching 2.02 million tons in 2023 and 3 million tons by 2030 [12][67] - The demand for antimony in lead-acid batteries is expected to decline sharply, from 1.97 million tons in 2021 to 0.24 million tons by 2027 [13][100] - The overall demand for antimony in various sectors, including chemical products and other applications, shows a mixed trend with some growth and some decline [103][107] Summary by Sections Antimony Demand in China - The total demand for metal antimony in China is calculated as the sum of various sectors, including flame retardants, photovoltaic glass, lead-acid batteries, and chemical products [10] Flame Retardants - The production of flame retardants in China is projected to increase from 117.14 million tons in 2021 to 150.04 million tons by 2030 [16] - The proportion of brominated flame retardants is expected to decrease from 16.8% in 2021 to 12.5% by 2030 [20] Photovoltaic Industry - The estimated new installed capacity for photovoltaics in China is expected to rise significantly, reaching 216.88 GW in 2023 and 297.05 GW by 2030 [34] - The market share of single-sided photovoltaic modules is projected to decline from 62.6% in 2021 to 0% by 2030, while double-sided modules will increase from 37.4% to 100% [39][49] Lead-Acid Batteries - The production of lead-acid batteries in China is expected to grow from 2.52 billion kWh in 2021 to 3.24 billion kWh by 2030 [72] - The antimony content in lead-acid batteries is projected to decrease significantly, with the proportion of antimony-containing batteries dropping from 75% in 2021 to 0% by 2030 [90] Chemical Products - The demand for antimony in chemical products, specifically as a polyester catalyst, is expected to remain stable around 0.87 million tons from 2023 to 2030 [103] - Other sectors are expected to see a gradual increase in antimony demand, reaching 0.56 million tons by 2030 [107]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the metal antimony industry Core Insights - The demand for metal antimony in China is projected to increase from 7.95 million tons in 2021 to 9.37 million tons in 2023, with a slight decline expected thereafter [10] - The demand for metal antimony in flame retardants is expected to stabilize around 4.0 million tons from 2024 to 2030 [11] - The demand for metal antimony in photovoltaic glass is anticipated to grow significantly, reaching 2.02 million tons in 2023 and 3 million tons by 2030 [12][67] - The demand for metal antimony in lead-acid batteries is projected to decline sharply from 1.97 million tons in 2021 to 0.24 million tons by 2027 [13][100] - The production of flame retardants in China is expected to increase from 117.14 million tons in 2021 to 150.04 million tons by 2030 [16] - The share of brominated flame retardants is expected to decrease from 16.8% in 2021 to 12.5% by 2030 [20] - The estimated new installed capacity of photovoltaics in China is projected to rise from 54.88 GW in 2021 to 297.05 GW by 2030 [34] - The market share of monofacial solar modules is expected to decline from 62.6% in 2021 to 0% by 2030, while bifacial modules will increase from 37.4% to 100% in the same period [39][49] Summary by Sections Metal Antimony Demand - The total demand for metal antimony in China is calculated as the sum of various sectors, with projections indicating fluctuations in demand over the next decade [10] Flame Retardants - The demand for metal antimony in flame retardants is derived from the production of flame retardants and is expected to remain stable [11][29] Photovoltaic Industry - The demand for metal antimony in photovoltaic glass is expected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing installation of solar panels [12][67] - The anticipated new installed capacity of photovoltaics in China shows a robust growth trajectory [34] Lead-Acid Batteries - The demand for metal antimony in lead-acid batteries is projected to decline sharply, reflecting changes in battery technology and market dynamics [13][100] Chemical Products - The demand for metal antimony in chemical products, particularly as a polyester catalyst, is expected to remain stable over the forecast period [103] Other Sectors - The demand for metal antimony in other sectors is projected to show modest growth, indicating a diversified application of the material [107]

Core Viewpoint - The small metals sector, particularly antimony, has unexpectedly surged in market attention, with significant stock price increases observed amidst a generally weak market environment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On March 7, the A and Hong Kong stock markets experienced a downturn, yet the small metals sector saw a collective rise, with industrial and rare metals leading with gains exceeding 2% [1]. - Notable stocks such as Huayu Mining, Hunan Gold, and others achieved strong performance, with Huayu Mining's stock price increasing by over 210% from a low of 6 yuan to 18.76 yuan [3][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Antimony, a critical industrial metal, has seen a significant price increase due to supply constraints caused by environmental policies and geopolitical factors affecting imports [5][6]. - The price of antimony ingots surged nearly 90%, driven by increased demand from the photovoltaic industry and the appliance sector [5]. - China's antimony exports dropped significantly due to new export controls, leading to a supply shortage in international markets and a widening price gap between domestic and international antimony prices [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The global antimony production has been declining, with a notable drop from 17.8 million tons per year in 2011 to 10 million tons in 2024, primarily due to reduced output from China [9][10]. - Analysts predict that the antimony market will continue to experience supply-demand imbalances, with expected supply gaps of 1.9, 2.8, 3.0, and 3.9 million tons from 2024 to 2027 [15]. - The domestic antimony price is anticipated to rise further, driven by persistent supply shortages and significant price differentials between domestic and international markets [15].

锑：相对稀缺的战略性中国优势矿种。 "工业味精"锑由于稀缺、难回收等特性被多国列入关键矿产目录。 作为中国的优势矿种，我国在锑矿储量、矿产量、冶炼及回收产量占比上均居全球第一位，2023年占比分 别为34%、47%、89%，其中冶炼及回收产量的30%用于出口。 摘要 行业近况 据亚洲金属网报道[1]，10月30日，中国海关恢复氧化锑出口编码，国内拥有出口资质的企业陆续开始申请 出口许可证，目前出口许可证发放正常。 评论 氧化锑出口许可证发放有望推动出口量好转 。 8月15日[2]我国发布锑出口管制公告以来，8、9月我国锑出 口量环比显著提升。据海关数据，8、9月我国出口锑产品折金属量环比分别+25%/+61%。考虑到锑出口量 自9月15日出口管制正式实施后降为0，而过去三年氧化锑出口占比超75%，我们认为伴随氧化锑出口许可 证的逐步发放，我国锑出口量有望逐步好转。 传统领域需求回暖及光伏玻璃减产速度放缓有望改善整体需求。 据我们测算，2023年锑下游消费结构中， 阻燃剂占比52%，光伏玻璃占比22%。一是我们认为以旧换新政策的逐步落地及家电季节性需求回升有望 带动阻燃剂用锑量增长。二是据隆众石化网，10月31 ...