Core Viewpoint - The antimony industry is facing supply pressure due to declining demand and rising import costs, leading to a significant drop in domestic production in July. The long-term outlook remains positive for antimony prices due to strong fundamentals and geopolitical factors [1][4][6]. Supply Side - Domestic antimony ingot production in July was 3,729 tons, a decrease of 36% year-on-year and 25% month-on-month. From January to July, production totaled 40,300 tons, down 6% year-on-year [4]. - The supply forecast for antimony from 2025 to 2027 is projected at 112,000 tons, 119,000 tons, and 127,000 tons respectively, with a relatively rigid supply-demand gap [5]. Demand Side - Antimony demand is expected to decline in 2025 due to reduced production in photovoltaic glass and inventory adjustments. However, traditional demand from flame retardants and lead-acid batteries is anticipated to remain stable [5]. - July saw domestic photovoltaic glass production drop to 2.09 million tons, a 21% decrease month-on-month and 17% year-on-year [4]. Price Trends - As of August 22, domestic antimony concentrate prices remained stable at 152,000 yuan/ton, while antimony ingot prices were 179,000 yuan/ton. The external market price was 493,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 3% decrease from early August [2]. - The company expects that the tightening of antimony exports may be nearing its end, and a return to normal purchasing patterns in photovoltaic glass could enhance price elasticity [6]. Import and Export Dynamics - In July, antimony concentrate imports were 2,307 tons, a 63% decrease year-on-year but a 26% increase month-on-month. The average import price was 35,400 yuan/ton, up 48% month-on-month [3]. - Antimony oxide exports were 74 tons in July, continuing a low trend, significantly below the levels seen earlier in the year [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the supply of antimony is expected to continue declining due to reduced production from major mines, while demand from photovoltaic glass is projected to decrease in 2025. However, traditional demand from flame retardants and lead-acid batteries is expected to remain stable [3][37] - The report suggests that the recent tightening of antimony exports may be nearing its end, and a return to normal purchasing patterns in the photovoltaic sector could enhance price elasticity [3][41] - The long-term outlook for antimony prices is positive, driven by strong supply-demand fundamentals and geopolitical factors that may amplify supply-demand imbalances [3][41] Supply and Demand Summary - In July, domestic antimony ingot production was 3,729 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 36% and a month-on-month decrease of 25%. For the first seven months of the year, production totaled 40,300 tons, down 6% year-on-year [2][23] - The report updates the supply-demand balance for 2025-2027, forecasting supply to be 11.2, 11.9, and 12.7 million tons, while demand is expected to be 13.1, 13.9, and 14.8 million tons, indicating a persistent supply-demand gap [3][39] - The report highlights that July antimony ore imports were 2,307 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 37%, while the average import price rose by 48% month-on-month to 35,400 yuan per ton [12][23] Price Outlook - As of August 22, domestic antimony concentrate prices remained stable at 152,000 yuan per ton, while external prices decreased by 3% to 493,000 yuan per ton. The price gap between domestic and external markets is 310,000 yuan per ton [10][12] - The report anticipates that the antimony industry will experience a high price run in the medium to long term due to its strategic metal attributes and ongoing geopolitical tensions [3][41] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on mining companies with quality resources that are likely to benefit from the upward trend in the antimony industry, specifically mentioning Huayu Mining and Huaxi Nonferrous [4][41]

Summary of Antimony Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The global antimony production has sharply decreased, with an estimated 100,000 tons of metal equivalent from mining raw materials in 2024, comparable to China's production a decade ago, primarily due to a lack of new large antimony mines and neglect of antimony production in associated ores, leading to rising antimony prices [2][3] - China remains the largest antimony smelting country globally, with smelting products exceeding 100,000 tons in 2024, relying on approximately 30% of raw materials imported from countries like Myanmar, Thailand, and Tajikistan [2][5] - Other countries such as Oman, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkey have antimony smelting plants, but they face challenges like insufficient raw materials or poor quality [2][6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global antimony supply-demand balance for 2024 is roughly stable, with total demand around 110,000 to 120,000 tons, where flame retardants account for about half of the consumption [2][7] - The lead-acid battery sector shows stable demand but faces uncertainty due to the rise of lithium batteries [2][8] - China's antimony consumption in 2024 is projected at approximately 72,000 tons, representing about 70% of global consumption, with 35% used in flame retardants and the remainder in lead alloys, polyester, and photovoltaic glass [12] Export Control Policies - Starting August 2024, China will implement export controls on antimony products to counteract U.S. and Western technology blockades, complicating the export approval process [4][13] - The approval process involves multiple departments, and the first batch of approvals is expected by the end of the month or early next month [14][19] Economic Impact and Challenges - Despite a significant drop in export volume (down 70-80% in the first half of 2025), the economic impact on domestic antimony companies is limited due to rising prices, with the export value decline being less than 50% [15] - The industry faces challenges such as smuggling and strengthened export controls, which have affected the export of antimony products [15] Recycling and Recovery - Antimony is one of the most challenging metals to recycle, with only about 20% of the annual demand of 120,000 tons being recoverable, primarily from lead-acid batteries [17][20] - The recycling rates in the U.S. are relatively advanced, but the overall recoverable amount remains low [18] Technological and Competitive Landscape - Chinese companies lead in smelting technology, achieving the best recovery rates, which gives them a competitive edge over other countries like Oman and Turkey, which lack advanced technology [24][25] - New innovative processing techniques are being developed, such as the acidic wet method by Hunan Gold Company, which can process over 10,000 tons of metal [26] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The photovoltaic glass industry currently demands about 10,000 tons of antimony, with stable procurement and ordering despite facing challenges [29] - The flame retardant market is experiencing pressure due to rising prices, leading to the emergence of substitutes, which could permanently affect demand if prices remain excessively high [30] Conclusion - The antimony industry is navigating a complex landscape of supply constraints, regulatory changes, and evolving market demands, with significant implications for pricing and production strategies moving forward.

Core Viewpoint - The antimony smelting industry in China is undergoing significant structural adjustments, with a focus on resource security, high-end transformation, and green production, driven by stringent environmental regulations and resource constraints [1][20]. Group 1: Antimony Smelting Industry Overview - Antimony smelting involves extracting metallic antimony from antimony ores or products, aiming to obtain high-purity antimony (≥99%) or antimony compounds [2][4]. - The industry has established a complete supply chain from resource exploration and mining to smelting and diverse applications, with a high concentration in the midstream smelting segment [6][20]. Group 2: Industry Policies - Antimony is recognized as a strategic mineral resource by major economies, including the US, EU, and China, leading to a progressive and systematic policy framework in China [4][5]. - New export control policies will be implemented in 2024, and antimony will be included in the national security reserve system by 2025, marking a new phase in resource security [4][20]. Group 3: Current Industry Status - The antimony smelting industry is experiencing a deep structural adjustment, with an overall operating rate dropping to historical lows of 30-40% in 2024, and nearly 60% of enterprises ceasing operations [14][20]. - Antimony ingot and oxide production have been declining, with 2024 figures showing a decrease of 8.09% and 6.50% respectively compared to the previous year [14][16]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - Global antimony prices have surged dramatically, with a 234.8% increase in 2024, driven by supply-demand imbalances and increased demand from the photovoltaic sector [12][20]. - The import dependency of China's antimony industry is rising, with significant increases in imports of antimony ores and concentrates [10][20]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The industry is characterized by a "three strong" competitive structure, with leading companies like Hunan Gold, Huayu Mining, and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals dominating the market [18][20]. - Hunan Gold is expected to produce 1.8 million tons of antimony in 2025, accounting for 21.7% of global production [18][20]. Group 6: Future Development Trends - The industry is shifting towards resource security and high-end applications, with a focus on overseas mining rights and recycling of antimony [20][22]. - Demand from the photovoltaic sector is projected to drive significant growth, with expectations that high-end manufacturing will account for over 60% of industry demand by 2025 [22][23].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Maintain Buy" [5] Core Viewpoints - Antimony prices have stabilized after a significant decline, indicating a potential bottoming out [2][13] - The export policy is showing signs of marginal easing, which may lead to an upward convergence of domestic antimony prices [3][42] - The supply-demand fundamentals for the antimony industry are strong, with expectations for long-term high prices due to geopolitical factors and administrative controls [3][42] Summary by Sections Antimony Price Review - As of July 11, antimony concentrate prices were 151,500 CNY/ton, down 31% from the April peak, while antimony ingot prices were 178,500 CNY/ton, down 28% [1][10] - The price difference between domestic and international markets has widened to 330,000 CNY/ton due to export controls and supply-demand imbalances [1][10] Demand Analysis - The demand for flame retardants has shown resilience, with prices for flame retardant masterbatches increasing by 90% from January to April, followed by a modest decline of 11% from April to July [2][13] - The photovoltaic glass sector has seen a significant increase in installation volumes, but actual installations have remained flat compared to the previous year due to delays [21][23] Supply Dynamics - Antimony ore imports decreased by 24% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, with a significant price increase of 39% month-on-month in May [31] - Domestic production of antimony ingots and sodium antimonate has declined sharply, with a 25% year-on-year drop in June production [31][32] Investment Recommendations - Companies with quality resources in the antimony sector are expected to benefit from the industry's upward trend. Recommended companies include Huayu Mining, Hunan Gold, and Huaxi Nonferrous [4][42]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the metal antimony industry Core Insights - The demand for metal antimony in China is projected to increase from 7.95 million tons in 2021 to 9.37 million tons in 2023, with a slight decline expected thereafter [10] - The demand for antimony in flame retardants is expected to stabilize around 4.0 million tons from 2024 to 2030 [11] - The demand for antimony in photovoltaic glass is anticipated to grow significantly, reaching 2.02 million tons in 2023 and 3 million tons by 2030 [12][67] - The demand for antimony in lead-acid batteries is expected to decline sharply, from 1.97 million tons in 2021 to 0.24 million tons by 2027 [13][100] - The overall demand for antimony in various sectors, including chemical products and other applications, shows a mixed trend with some growth and some decline [103][107] Summary by Sections Antimony Demand in China - The total demand for metal antimony in China is calculated as the sum of various sectors, including flame retardants, photovoltaic glass, lead-acid batteries, and chemical products [10] Flame Retardants - The production of flame retardants in China is projected to increase from 117.14 million tons in 2021 to 150.04 million tons by 2030 [16] - The proportion of brominated flame retardants is expected to decrease from 16.8% in 2021 to 12.5% by 2030 [20] Photovoltaic Industry - The estimated new installed capacity for photovoltaics in China is expected to rise significantly, reaching 216.88 GW in 2023 and 297.05 GW by 2030 [34] - The market share of single-sided photovoltaic modules is projected to decline from 62.6% in 2021 to 0% by 2030, while double-sided modules will increase from 37.4% to 100% [39][49] Lead-Acid Batteries - The production of lead-acid batteries in China is expected to grow from 2.52 billion kWh in 2021 to 3.24 billion kWh by 2030 [72] - The antimony content in lead-acid batteries is projected to decrease significantly, with the proportion of antimony-containing batteries dropping from 75% in 2021 to 0% by 2030 [90] Chemical Products - The demand for antimony in chemical products, specifically as a polyester catalyst, is expected to remain stable around 0.87 million tons from 2023 to 2030 [103] - Other sectors are expected to see a gradual increase in antimony demand, reaching 0.56 million tons by 2030 [107]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the metal antimony industry Core Insights - The demand for metal antimony in China is projected to increase from 7.95 million tons in 2021 to 9.37 million tons in 2023, with a slight decline expected thereafter [10] - The demand for metal antimony in flame retardants is expected to stabilize around 4.0 million tons from 2024 to 2030 [11] - The demand for metal antimony in photovoltaic glass is anticipated to grow significantly, reaching 2.02 million tons in 2023 and 3 million tons by 2030 [12][67] - The demand for metal antimony in lead-acid batteries is projected to decline sharply from 1.97 million tons in 2021 to 0.24 million tons by 2027 [13][100] - The production of flame retardants in China is expected to increase from 117.14 million tons in 2021 to 150.04 million tons by 2030 [16] - The share of brominated flame retardants is expected to decrease from 16.8% in 2021 to 12.5% by 2030 [20] - The estimated new installed capacity of photovoltaics in China is projected to rise from 54.88 GW in 2021 to 297.05 GW by 2030 [34] - The market share of monofacial solar modules is expected to decline from 62.6% in 2021 to 0% by 2030, while bifacial modules will increase from 37.4% to 100% in the same period [39][49] Summary by Sections Metal Antimony Demand - The total demand for metal antimony in China is calculated as the sum of various sectors, with projections indicating fluctuations in demand over the next decade [10] Flame Retardants - The demand for metal antimony in flame retardants is derived from the production of flame retardants and is expected to remain stable [11][29] Photovoltaic Industry - The demand for metal antimony in photovoltaic glass is expected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing installation of solar panels [12][67] - The anticipated new installed capacity of photovoltaics in China shows a robust growth trajectory [34] Lead-Acid Batteries - The demand for metal antimony in lead-acid batteries is projected to decline sharply, reflecting changes in battery technology and market dynamics [13][100] Chemical Products - The demand for metal antimony in chemical products, particularly as a polyester catalyst, is expected to remain stable over the forecast period [103] Other Sectors - The demand for metal antimony in other sectors is projected to show modest growth, indicating a diversified application of the material [107]

Core Viewpoint - The small metals sector, particularly antimony, has unexpectedly surged in market attention, with significant stock price increases observed amidst a generally weak market environment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On March 7, the A and Hong Kong stock markets experienced a downturn, yet the small metals sector saw a collective rise, with industrial and rare metals leading with gains exceeding 2% [1]. - Notable stocks such as Huayu Mining, Hunan Gold, and others achieved strong performance, with Huayu Mining's stock price increasing by over 210% from a low of 6 yuan to 18.76 yuan [3][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Antimony, a critical industrial metal, has seen a significant price increase due to supply constraints caused by environmental policies and geopolitical factors affecting imports [5][6]. - The price of antimony ingots surged nearly 90%, driven by increased demand from the photovoltaic industry and the appliance sector [5]. - China's antimony exports dropped significantly due to new export controls, leading to a supply shortage in international markets and a widening price gap between domestic and international antimony prices [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The global antimony production has been declining, with a notable drop from 17.8 million tons per year in 2011 to 10 million tons in 2024, primarily due to reduced output from China [9][10]. - Analysts predict that the antimony market will continue to experience supply-demand imbalances, with expected supply gaps of 1.9, 2.8, 3.0, and 3.9 million tons from 2024 to 2027 [15]. - The domestic antimony price is anticipated to rise further, driven by persistent supply shortages and significant price differentials between domestic and international markets [15].

锑：相对稀缺的战略性中国优势矿种。 "工业味精"锑由于稀缺、难回收等特性被多国列入关键矿产目录。 作为中国的优势矿种，我国在锑矿储量、矿产量、冶炼及回收产量占比上均居全球第一位，2023年占比分 别为34%、47%、89%，其中冶炼及回收产量的30%用于出口。 摘要 行业近况 据亚洲金属网报道[1]，10月30日，中国海关恢复氧化锑出口编码，国内拥有出口资质的企业陆续开始申请 出口许可证，目前出口许可证发放正常。 评论 氧化锑出口许可证发放有望推动出口量好转 。 8月15日[2]我国发布锑出口管制公告以来，8、9月我国锑出 口量环比显著提升。据海关数据，8、9月我国出口锑产品折金属量环比分别+25%/+61%。考虑到锑出口量 自9月15日出口管制正式实施后降为0，而过去三年氧化锑出口占比超75%，我们认为伴随氧化锑出口许可 证的逐步发放，我国锑出口量有望逐步好转。 传统领域需求回暖及光伏玻璃减产速度放缓有望改善整体需求。 据我们测算，2023年锑下游消费结构中， 阻燃剂占比52%，光伏玻璃占比22%。一是我们认为以旧换新政策的逐步落地及家电季节性需求回升有望 带动阻燃剂用锑量增长。二是据隆众石化网，10月31 ...