中国金属锑行业市场规模测算逻辑 模型 头豹词条报告系列 马天奇 金属锑行业规模 | 1. 中国金属锑需求量 (结论图) | P3 | | --- | --- | | 2. 中国金属锑需求量 | P4 | | 3. 中国阻燃剂产量 | P5 | | 4. 溴系阻燃剂占比 | P6 | | 5. 溴系阻燃剂产量与锑金属用量转换系数 | P7 | | 6. 中国阻燃剂金属锑用量 | P8 | | 7. 中国光伏新增装机量（保守估计） | P9 | | 8. 单面组件市场份额 | P10 | | 9. 单面组件需求量 | P11 | | 10. 双面组件市场份额 | P12 | | 11. 双面组件需求量 | P13 | | 12. 中国组件需求量 | P14 | | 13. 焦锑酸钠添加比例 | P15 | | 14. 中国光伏玻璃焦锑酸钠需求量 | P16 | 27. 头豹研究院简介 | P29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 15. 中国光伏玻璃锑金属需求量 | P17 | 28. 头豹词条介绍 | P30 | | 16. 中国铅酸蓄电池产量 | P18 | 29. 头豹词条报告 | ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the metal antimony industry Core Insights - The demand for metal antimony in China is projected to increase from 7.95 million tons in 2021 to 9.37 million tons in 2023, with a slight decline expected thereafter [10] - The demand for metal antimony in flame retardants is expected to stabilize around 4.0 million tons from 2024 to 2030 [11] - The demand for metal antimony in photovoltaic glass is anticipated to grow significantly, reaching 2.02 million tons in 2023 and 3 million tons by 2030 [12][67] - The demand for metal antimony in lead-acid batteries is projected to decline sharply from 1.97 million tons in 2021 to 0.24 million tons by 2027 [13][100] - The production of flame retardants in China is expected to increase from 117.14 million tons in 2021 to 150.04 million tons by 2030 [16] - The share of brominated flame retardants is expected to decrease from 16.8% in 2021 to 12.5% by 2030 [20] - The estimated new installed capacity of photovoltaics in China is projected to rise from 54.88 GW in 2021 to 297.05 GW by 2030 [34] - The market share of monofacial solar modules is expected to decline from 62.6% in 2021 to 0% by 2030, while bifacial modules will increase from 37.4% to 100% in the same period [39][49] Summary by Sections Metal Antimony Demand - The total demand for metal antimony in China is calculated as the sum of various sectors, with projections indicating fluctuations in demand over the next decade [10] Flame Retardants - The demand for metal antimony in flame retardants is derived from the production of flame retardants and is expected to remain stable [11][29] Photovoltaic Industry - The demand for metal antimony in photovoltaic glass is expected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing installation of solar panels [12][67] - The anticipated new installed capacity of photovoltaics in China shows a robust growth trajectory [34] Lead-Acid Batteries - The demand for metal antimony in lead-acid batteries is projected to decline sharply, reflecting changes in battery technology and market dynamics [13][100] Chemical Products - The demand for metal antimony in chemical products, particularly as a polyester catalyst, is expected to remain stable over the forecast period [103] Other Sectors - The demand for metal antimony in other sectors is projected to show modest growth, indicating a diversified application of the material [107]

作者 | 哥吉拉 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 就在AI和机器人持续吸引市场关注时，平时默默无闻的小金属板块却突然成为了全市场的C位焦点。 3月7日，A港股市场震荡收跌，但小金属板块却上演了逆势集体飙升的盛况。 当天涨幅榜上工业金属、稀有金属一跃成为领涨板块，涨幅都显著超过了2%。 华钰矿业、湖南黄金、华锡有色、金瑞矿业、株冶集团、罗平 锌电、红星发展等十多只小金属股强势涨停。 | Wind热门摄念指数 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业金属 | 小金属 | 销额钱里 | 一体化压铸 | 稀有金属 | 中航系 | 大飞机 | 楊士 | | 2.56% | 2.54% | 2.17% | 1.98% | 1.92% | 1.87% | 1.72% | 1.73% | | 航运 | 新型工业化 | 工业母机 | 央企爆炭 | 咸速铁 | 日酒 | 饲料 | 航母 | | 1.70% | 1.68% | 1.64% | 1.34% | 1.30% | 1.30% | 1.28% ...

锑：相对稀缺的战略性中国优势矿种。 "工业味精"锑由于稀缺、难回收等特性被多国列入关键矿产目录。 作为中国的优势矿种，我国在锑矿储量、矿产量、冶炼及回收产量占比上均居全球第一位，2023年占比分 别为34%、47%、89%，其中冶炼及回收产量的30%用于出口。 摘要 行业近况 据亚洲金属网报道[1]，10月30日，中国海关恢复氧化锑出口编码，国内拥有出口资质的企业陆续开始申请 出口许可证，目前出口许可证发放正常。 评论 氧化锑出口许可证发放有望推动出口量好转 。 8月15日[2]我国发布锑出口管制公告以来，8、9月我国锑出 口量环比显著提升。据海关数据，8、9月我国出口锑产品折金属量环比分别+25%/+61%。考虑到锑出口量 自9月15日出口管制正式实施后降为0，而过去三年氧化锑出口占比超75%，我们认为伴随氧化锑出口许可 证的逐步发放，我国锑出口量有望逐步好转。 传统领域需求回暖及光伏玻璃减产速度放缓有望改善整体需求。 据我们测算，2023年锑下游消费结构中， 阻燃剂占比52%，光伏玻璃占比22%。一是我们认为以旧换新政策的逐步落地及家电季节性需求回升有望 带动阻燃剂用锑量增长。二是据隆众石化网，10月31 ...