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广发证券:建材业供需持续发生积极变化 把握板块底部配置机会
智通财经网· 2025-11-12 03:58
Group 1: Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials industry is experiencing a recovery in retail demand, driven by high second-hand housing activity and subsidy policies, with leading companies showing strong operational resilience [1] - Long-term demand stability and increasing industry concentration suggest significant growth potential for quality leading companies in the consumer building materials sector [1] - Key companies to watch include Sanhe Tree, Rabbit Baby, Hanhai Group, Oriental Yuhong, China Liansu, Beixin Building Materials, Weixing New Materials, Dongpeng Holdings, Jianlang Hardware, Arrow Home, Mona Lisa, Keshun Shares, Zhit New Materials, and Wangli Security [1] Group 2: Cement Industry - The national average cement price is reported at 351 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year drop of 74.33 RMB/ton [2] - The national cement shipment rate stands at 45.93%, remaining stable week-on-week but down 7.87 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The cement industry is currently at a historical valuation low, with companies to focus on including Huaxin Cement (A, H), Conch Cement (A, H), Shangfeng Cement, China Resources Cement Technology, and Taipai Group [2] Group 3: Glass Industry - The average price of float glass is 1208 RMB/ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.0% but a year-on-year decrease of 15.1% [3] - Inventory days for glass have decreased by 0.67 days, currently at 29.61 days [3] - Key companies in the glass sector with low valuations include Qibin Group, Xinyi Solar, Flat Glass (A), Flat Glass (H), Xinyi Glass, Nanshan Glass A, and Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass [3] Group 4: Glass Fiber and Carbon-Based Composites - The market price for direct yarn remains stable, with mainstream prices for 2400tex yarn ranging from 3250 to 3700 RMB/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.95% [4] - Electronic yarn prices are stable, with G75 mainstream quotes between 8800 and 9300 RMB/ton [4] - Leading companies in the glass fiber and carbon-based composite materials sector include China Jushi, China National Materials, Honghe Technology, and Changhai Co. [4]
广发证券:消费建材长期需求稳定 核心龙头公司经营韧性强
智通财经网· 2025-10-21 03:56
据卓创资讯,截至2025年10月17日,国内浮法玻璃均价1276元/吨,环比-2.1%,同比去年+1.5%。库存 天数29.09天,较9月30日增加4.29天。2.0mm镀膜面板主流订单价格13元/平方米左右,环比持平,较上 周暂无变动,样本库存天数约18.87天,环比增加25.64%。当前玻璃龙头估值偏低,看好旗滨集团、山 东药玻、福莱特(A)、福莱特玻璃(H)、信义玻璃、信义光能,关注金晶科技、力诺特玻。 智通财经APP获悉,广发证券发布研报称,二手房高景气叠加补贴政策,零售建材景气率先恢复,龙头 公司经营韧性强。消费建材长期需求稳定性好、行业集中度持续提升、竞争格局好的优质龙头中长期成 长空间仍然很大。下游地产仍在寻底,等待销售企稳好转;核心龙头公司经营韧性强。 广发证券主要观点如下: 水泥:本周全国水泥市场价格环比继续回落0.7% 据数字水泥网,截至2025年10月17日,全国水泥均价347元/吨,环比-2.33元/吨,同比-61.83元/吨;全国 水泥出货率45.20%,环比+0.67pct,同比-10.00pct。随着部分区域水泥价格持续回调至底部区间,预计 后期水泥价格仍将维持小幅震荡调整走势。 ...
建筑材料行业跟踪周报:短期关注十五五,中期等待经济工作会议定调-20251020
Soochow Securities· 2025-10-20 11:52
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - Short-term focus is on the "15th Five-Year Plan," while mid-term strategies await the economic work conference for direction [1]. - The construction materials sector has shown a decline of 4.11% this week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which fell by 2.22% [4]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic circulation and technological advancements in the industry, particularly in the context of the upcoming economic policies [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - **Cement**: The national average price for high-standard cement is 346.8 CNY/ton, down by 2.3 CNY/ton from last week and down 61.8 CNY/ton from the same period in 2024. The average cement inventory ratio is 67.3%, up 0.6 percentage points from last week [4][20][15]. - **Glass**: The average price for float glass is 1301.0 CNY/ton, up 11.2 CNY/ton from last week and up 46.6% from 2024. Inventory levels have increased, indicating a potential oversupply [45][51]. - **Fiberglass**: The market for fiberglass remains stable, with prices for non-alkali yarn around 3250-3700 CNY/ton, showing a year-on-year decline of 3.93% [4][6]. 2. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes that the cement market is experiencing weak demand, particularly in northern regions due to weather conditions, while southern regions face financial constraints [13][14]. - The glass market is characterized by high inventory levels and weak demand, leading to price fluctuations [44][51]. - The report emphasizes the need for supply-side reforms and the potential for price stabilization in the fiberglass sector as excess capacity is addressed [7][8]. 3. Weekly Market Review and Sector Valuation - The construction materials sector's valuation is at historical lows, with expectations for policy support to enhance profitability and valuation recovery [4][6]. - The report suggests that leading companies in the cement industry, such as Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, are well-positioned to benefit from industry consolidation and improved market conditions [4][6].
广发证券:玻纤部分企业提价 电子纱价格或结构性提涨
智通财经网· 2025-09-10 08:30
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that several companies in the fiberglass industry have raised prices by 5%-10% due to ongoing losses and factors such as US-China tariffs, indicating initial success in industry self-discipline and a potential increase in profitability for the fiberglass sector [1][2] - The China Glass Fiber Industry Association approved the "Self-Discipline Convention for the Glass Fiber and Products Industry" on December 25, 2024, with nine major companies, including China Jushi and Taishan Fiberglass, committing to this self-regulation [1][2] Group 2 - In the construction materials sector, the demand for retail building materials is recovering, supported by high demand in the second-hand housing market and subsidy policies, with strong resilience observed in leading companies [3] - The national average price of cement has decreased by 0.5% week-on-week, with a current price of 343 RMB/ton, while the cement shipment rate stands at 45.73%, indicating a slight recovery in the market [4] - The average price of float glass has weakened slightly, with a current price of 1190 RMB/ton, while photovoltaic glass prices have increased, reflecting mixed market conditions [5] - The price of direct yarn in the fiberglass/carbon-based composite market remains stable, with electronic yarn prices holding steady, indicating a stable market environment for leading companies [6]
地产仍处弱景气,供给端的变化更值得期待
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2025-08-17 05:50
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the building materials industry [2]. Core Insights - The real estate sector remains in a weak economic environment, but changes on the supply side are more promising [1]. - The cement sector is expected to benefit from demand driven by urban renewal and supply restrictions, leading to improved market conditions [4][7]. - The report highlights the potential for price increases in waterproofing products, which could enhance industry profit margins [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The building materials industry consists of 73 listed companies with a total market value of 838.733 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 789.313 billion yuan [2]. - The report notes a decline in real estate development investment, with a 12% year-on-year decrease, and a 4% drop in commercial housing sales area [7]. Key Companies - North New Building Materials: EPS forecast for 2024A is 2.2 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - Conch Cement: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.5 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - China Jushi: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.6 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - Weixing New Materials: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.6 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - Sankeshu: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.5 yuan, with an "Overweight" rating [5]. - Huaxin Cement: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.2 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.4 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - Qibin Group: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.1 yuan, with an "Overweight" rating [5]. - Dongfang Yuhong: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.1 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - Jianlang Hardware: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.3 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - China National Materials: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.5 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. Market Trends - The cement market saw a 0.2% increase in prices, with specific regions experiencing price hikes of 10-30 yuan per ton [31]. - The national cement output for January to July 2025 was 958 million tons, a 4.5% year-on-year decrease [7]. - The report anticipates a steady upward trend in cement prices due to rising coal costs and improved demand conditions [31]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from supply restrictions and urban renewal projects, such as Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement [7][8]. - It also suggests monitoring companies in the waterproofing sector, like Dongfang Yuhong, for potential profit margin improvements [7].
基建投入持续强化 | 投研报告
Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry is facing challenges due to low demand for cement, with average shipment rates around 44%, and prices hitting or falling below cost levels, exacerbated by rising coal prices [1][6]. Investment Highlights - The construction materials sector saw a weekly change of 1.19%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite and Wind All A indices, which changed by 1.23% and 1.94% respectively [2]. - The national average price for high-standard cement is 339.7 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week but down 42.5 yuan/ton compared to the same period last year [3]. - The average cement inventory level among sample enterprises is 67.4%, up 1.2 percentage points from last week and 1.1 percentage points from the same period last year [3]. Cement Market Analysis - The cement market is experiencing low demand due to high temperatures and rainfall, with companies in key regions discussing staggered production to alleviate operational pressures [6]. - There is a consensus on supply discipline within the industry, which may lead to better profitability compared to last year, with potential price increases expected in mid-August [6]. - The sector's price-to-book ratio is at historical lows, and industry policies may drive profitability recovery and valuation improvement [6]. Glass Fiber Market Insights - The electronic glass fiber market is seeing an upgrade trend, with high-end products expected to gain market share due to technological advancements [7]. - The ordinary glass fiber market remains under pressure, but demand in wind power and thermoplastics is expected to grow, supporting mid-term profitability [8]. - Leading companies in the glass fiber sector are positioned to benefit from structural adjustments and increasing demand in emerging applications [8]. Glass Industry Overview - The glass industry is facing significant losses, but supply-side contractions may improve the short-term supply-demand balance, with potential price stabilization [9]. - The industry is expected to benefit from policy measures aimed at reducing excess capacity, with leading companies likely to enjoy cost advantages and excess profits [9]. Renovation and Building Materials Sector - Increased external uncertainties and government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are expected to enhance consumption in the home improvement and building materials sector [10]. - The market for home improvement materials is anticipated to improve, with leading companies likely to see valuation recovery as consumer confidence strengthens [10]. - Companies are exploring new business models and extending their supply chains to enhance efficiency and pricing power [10].
中国巨石(600176):价格复苏释放盈利空间,规模优势凸显
Huachuang Securities· 2025-05-09 12:13
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, with a target price of 16 yuan [2][10]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.479 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.42%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 730 million yuan, up 108.52% year-on-year [2][9]. - The recovery in prices has released profit potential, and the company's scale advantages are becoming more pronounced [2][9]. - The demand in the fiberglass industry is expected to increase, driven by growth in downstream applications such as consumer electronics and AI, which will boost the demand for high-end electronic fabrics [9][10]. - The company has improved its gross margin to 30.5% in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.4 percentage points, due to improved volume and price dynamics [9][10]. - The company’s operating cash flow has improved year-on-year, with a decrease in expense ratios, indicating better cost management [9][10]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to have total revenue of 17.415 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.8% [5][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 3.205 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 31.1% [5][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.80 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15 times [5][10]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 63.085 billion yuan by 2026, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 50.5% [10].