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地产仍处弱景气,供给端的变化更值得期待
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2025-08-17 05:50
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the building materials industry [2]. Core Insights - The real estate sector remains in a weak economic environment, but changes on the supply side are more promising [1]. - The cement sector is expected to benefit from demand driven by urban renewal and supply restrictions, leading to improved market conditions [4][7]. - The report highlights the potential for price increases in waterproofing products, which could enhance industry profit margins [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The building materials industry consists of 73 listed companies with a total market value of 838.733 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 789.313 billion yuan [2]. - The report notes a decline in real estate development investment, with a 12% year-on-year decrease, and a 4% drop in commercial housing sales area [7]. Key Companies - North New Building Materials: EPS forecast for 2024A is 2.2 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - Conch Cement: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.5 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - China Jushi: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.6 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - Weixing New Materials: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.6 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - Sankeshu: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.5 yuan, with an "Overweight" rating [5]. - Huaxin Cement: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.2 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.4 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - Qibin Group: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.1 yuan, with an "Overweight" rating [5]. - Dongfang Yuhong: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.1 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - Jianlang Hardware: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.3 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. - China National Materials: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.5 yuan, with a "Buy" rating [5]. Market Trends - The cement market saw a 0.2% increase in prices, with specific regions experiencing price hikes of 10-30 yuan per ton [31]. - The national cement output for January to July 2025 was 958 million tons, a 4.5% year-on-year decrease [7]. - The report anticipates a steady upward trend in cement prices due to rising coal costs and improved demand conditions [31]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from supply restrictions and urban renewal projects, such as Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement [7][8]. - It also suggests monitoring companies in the waterproofing sector, like Dongfang Yuhong, for potential profit margin improvements [7].
中国巨石(600176):价格复苏释放盈利空间,规模优势凸显
Huachuang Securities· 2025-05-09 12:13
证 券 研 究 报 告 中国巨石(600176)2025 年一季报点评 推荐(维持) 价格复苏释放盈利空间,规模优势凸显 目标价:16 元 2025 年一季度公司实现营业收入 44.79 亿元,同比增长 32.42%,归母净利润 7.3 亿元,同比增长 108.52%。 评论: 风险提示:产能建设进展不及预期,原材料价格波动。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 15,856 | 17,415 | 19,470 | 21,389 | | 同比增速(%) | 6.6% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 9.9% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 2,444 | 3,205 | 3,510 | 4,234 | | 同比增速(%) | -19.7% | 31.1% | 9.5% | 20.6% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.61 | 0.80 | 0.88 | 1.06 | | 市盈率(倍) | 20 | 15 | 14 | 11 ...
中国巨石2025年一季报点评:业绩落于快报区间上沿,盈利继续修复
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-04-24 01:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 4.479 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 730 million yuan, up 108.5% year-on-year [2] - The company is experiencing a recovery in gross profit margins, with Q1 2025 gross margin at 30.53%, up 10.40 percentage points from the bottom in Q1 2024 [3] - The pricing power in the industry is evident as the company has successfully implemented price increases for its products, particularly in the high-end segments [3][4] Summary by Sections Performance Review - Q1 2025 revenue reached 4.479 billion yuan, with a net profit of 730 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 744 million yuan, showing significant year-on-year growth [2] Operational Analysis - **Fiberglass Yarn**: The average price for 2400tex yarn in Q1 2025 was 3,766 yuan/ton, reflecting a 22.3% year-on-year increase. The company’s inventory decreased by 6.7% from Q4 2024, indicating a positive inventory trend [3] - **Electronic Fabric**: The average price for 7628 electronic fabric in Q1 2025 was approximately 4.14 yuan/meter, up 22.8% year-on-year, driven by strong downstream demand and limited supply [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.531 billion yuan, 4.210 billion yuan, and 4.590 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14x, 11x, and 10x [5]