更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 2026年,周期怎么看 20260104 摘要 Q&A 目前建筑建材行业的整体情况如何?有哪些值得关注的投资机会? 从目前跟踪的企业经营情况来看,建筑建材行业订单总体保持相对充分,但资金 仍是制约企业产值释放的核心因素。尽管国家启动了一些重大项目,但相对于庞 大的基础建设存量,这些投资难以带来显著成长性。因此,对于传统基建领域, 我们推荐高股息、低估值序列的公司,如中国建筑、四川路桥、隧道股份和中材 国际等。这些公司核心竞争力较强,经营稳定,分红股息率较高。 此外,一些 争 狗 - 传统基建领域推荐高股息、低估值公司,如中国建筑、四川路桥等,因其 . 核心竞争力强、经营稳定。同时,关注积极转型新科技、新产业的中小企 业,如正东设计、华阳国际等,可能迎来突破。 消费建材领域,头部公司市占率提升,经营趋稳健,建议左侧布局已证明 ● 核心竞争力的公司,如东方雨虹、兔宝宝等。关注 AI 产业链兴起需求增 加的高端产品公司,如中国巨石、中材科技。 2025 年元旦假期跨区域人流增长,海南离岛免税销售额同比大增 129%, . 客单价增长 43%。预计 2025年 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [4] Core Views - The construction materials sector has shown a 1.62% increase, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.8 percentage points, with glass and ceramics performing relatively well [2][10] - Cement demand continues to weaken due to seasonal factors, with shipment rates down 8% year-on-year as of the latest week [2] - Despite some positive sentiment in the glass market due to production line shutdown news, high inventory levels continue to pressure the market [2] - The real estate sector is stabilizing, with some leading consumer building materials companies showing early signs of revenue improvement in Q3 [2] - The report recommends leading consumer building materials companies and high-growth overseas targets, highlighting the potential for valuation recovery in the sector [2] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.82% while the construction materials sector increased by 1.62%, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [10] - Notable stock performances included Hainan Development (27.4%), Jinjing Technology (24.8%), and Sichuan Jinding (15.3%) [10] Key Recommendations - The recommended stocks include Western Cement, Huaxin Cement, Keda Manufacturing, China National Building Material, Honghe Technology, China Jushi, Rabbit Baby, Qibin Group, and Dongpeng Holdings [3][9] - The report emphasizes the potential for traditional building materials to recover as the industry approaches a cyclical bottom, with specific recommendations for cement and glass companies [16] Price Trends - The report notes that the national cement market price has decreased by 0.1% week-on-week, with regional price fluctuations observed [15] - The average price of float glass has decreased slightly, indicating a stable but cautious market environment [15]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the building materials sector, suggesting that the consumption building materials segment is showing signs of recovery and improvement in performance [4][6]. Market Performance - The building materials sector has experienced a decline of 11% over the past 12 months, while the Shanghai Composite Index has seen a decrease of 4% [2]. Q3 Performance Analysis - Q3 results indicate a sequential improvement in performance for many consumption building materials companies, with notable revenue growth for companies like Dongfang Yuhong (+8.5%), Sankeshu (+5.6%), and Tubao Bao (+5.0%) [6]. - The report highlights that the revenue recovery is primarily driven by optimized channel strategies, although price pressures remain [6]. - Companies such as Dongfang Yuhong and Tubao Bao have shown a decrease in gross margin, while Sankeshu has managed to increase its gross margin by 4.9 percentage points due to lower titanium dioxide prices and the promotion of high-margin products [6]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a potential rebound in Q4 and next year, driven by a low base from the previous year and the gradual implementation of price increases [6]. - It notes that the construction area completed from January to September has decreased by 15.3%, but the decline has narrowed, indicating a possible recovery in building material demand [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in leading building materials companies, emphasizing the "Matthew Effect" where top companies will gain market share as smaller firms exit the market [6]. - It recommends focusing on high-growth segments such as coatings and waterproofing, with specific companies like Sankeshu, Dongfang Yuhong, Tubao Bao, and Keshun being highlighted as key investment opportunities [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the building materials industry [10] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the continued recommendation of African building materials, highlighting their upward trend and undervaluation, making them the best-performing segment for Q3 earnings expectations [5][8] - It suggests focusing on leading consumer building material companies that are bottoming out, despite the real estate chain being in a downturn [5][8] - The report identifies specific companies to watch, including Huaxin Cement and Keda Manufacturing, which are expected to see improved Q3 performance [5][8] Summary by Sections Basic Situation - Cement prices have decreased month-on-month, while glass inventory continues to rise [6] - The average cement shipment rate across the country is approximately 45%, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.6% but a year-on-year decrease of 9.2% [6][25] Cement Market - The report notes that the cement market remains weak, with prices continuing to fluctuate due to insufficient downstream demand and production issues [6][24] - The average price of cement is reported at 351.77 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.26 yuan/ton month-on-month [25] Glass Market - The report indicates that the domestic float glass market is experiencing mixed price movements, with overall trading atmosphere being average and inventory pressures increasing [7][38] - The total inventory of monitored provinces has increased to 59.57 million weight boxes, marking a 17.31% increase compared to the end of September [37][38] Recommendations - The report recommends investing in African chains and existing chains, particularly focusing on companies like Huaxin Cement and Keda Manufacturing, which are expected to benefit from demographic trends and urbanization in Africa [5][8] - It also highlights the potential of consumer building material leaders like Sanhe Tree and Rabbit Baby, which are showing resilient growth despite market challenges [5][8] Special Fabrics - The report notes ongoing investment opportunities in AI electronic fabrics, driven by surging demand and high supply barriers, with companies like Zhongcai Technology positioned to benefit from domestic substitution [9]

Group 1: Cement Industry - The national cement market price has continued to decline by 0.7% week-on-week, with an average price of 347 RMB/ton as of October 17, 2025, reflecting a decrease of 2.33 RMB/ton month-on-month and 61.83% year-on-year [1] - The national cement shipment rate is at 45.20%, showing an increase of 0.67 percentage points week-on-week but a decrease of 10 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The industry valuation is at historical low levels, with a positive outlook for leading companies such as Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement, while also monitoring China Resources Cement Technology, Shangfeng Cement, and Tapai Group [1] Group 2: Glass Industry - The price of float glass has experienced a decline of 2.1% week-on-week, with an average price of 1276 RMB/ton as of October 17, 2025, while showing a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [2] - Inventory days for glass have increased to 29.09 days, up by 4.29 days since September 30 [2] - The leading glass companies are currently undervalued, with a favorable outlook for Qibin Group, Shandong Yaobang, and Fuyao Glass, while also keeping an eye on Jinjing Technology and Linuo Photovoltaic [2] Group 3: Fiberglass and Carbon-based Composites - The market for fiberglass yarn is stable, with mainstream transaction prices for 2400tex winding direct yarn ranging from 3250 to 3700 RMB/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous week but down 3.93% year-on-year [3] - The price of electronic yarn G75 has increased by 3.03% compared to the previous week, with mainstream prices between 8800 and 9300 RMB/ton [3] - Leading companies in the fiberglass and carbon-based composite materials sector are significantly ahead, with a positive outlook for China Jushi, China National Materials, and Changhai Co., while also monitoring Jinbo Co. [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that high-quality companies in the consumer building materials sector are expected to further highlight their alpha, with price increases in Q3 2025 being noteworthy [1] - Demand for residential real estate remains relatively weak in Q3 2025, while retail building materials are expected to perform relatively well [1] - Sectors with strong brand value, retail attributes, and high renovation ratios, such as coatings and tiles, are anticipated to shine, particularly leading companies with strong brands and channels [1] Group 2 - Urbanization rates are gradually increasing in regions like Africa and South America, leading to a favorable pattern for post-cycle renovation building materials, maintaining good prosperity [1] - The building materials ETF (159745) tracks the CSI All-Share Building Materials Index, encompassing segments like cement, glass, and consumer building materials [1] - As of October 9, 2025, the building materials ETF has a scale of 1.106 billion, ranking first among three similar products [1]

Company News - Hengdian East Magnetic achieved a net profit of 1.02 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 58.94%, and plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.8 yuan per 10 shares (tax included) [10] - Muyuan Foods reported a revenue of 76.463 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.46%, and a net profit of 10.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1169.77%. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.32 yuan per 10 shares (tax included), totaling 5 billion yuan [10] - *ST Yazhen announced that its stock will resume trading on August 21 after completing a trading suspension review. The company expects a net profit of -39.5 million to -33 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [10][12] - Heng Rui Medicine achieved a revenue of 15.761 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.88%, and a net profit of 4.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.67%. The company plans to repurchase shares worth 1 to 2 billion yuan [10] - Yonghui Supermarket reported a revenue of 29.948 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.73%, and a net loss of 241 million yuan [11] Industry News - The People's Bank of China announced that the loan market quotation rate (LPR) for one year is 3.0% and for five years or more is 3.5%, unchanged from the previous period [6] - The National Financial Supervision Administration is revising the "Commercial Bank M&A Loan Risk Management Guidelines" to broaden the scope of M&A loans and optimize loan conditions [6] - The Ministry of Finance announced that starting January 1, 2025, childcare subsidies will be exempt from personal income tax [7] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission plans to enhance product supply in the futures market, focusing on important energy varieties like liquefied natural gas [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 440 million yuan, up 108% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was approximately 290 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 268% [2][4]. - In the second quarter, the company reported a revenue of 3.7 billion yuan, which remained flat year-on-year, with a net profit of 330 million yuan, marking a 103% increase year-on-year, and a non-recurring net profit of approximately 310 million yuan, up 96% [2][4]. - The company’s gross profit margin improved to approximately 32.3% in the first half of the year, an increase of 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, with the second quarter gross margin reaching 33.1% [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for the first half of 2025 was 5.8 billion yuan, with a net profit of 440 million yuan and a non-recurring net profit of approximately 290 million yuan [2][4]. - The second quarter saw a revenue of 3.7 billion yuan, with net profits and non-recurring net profits of 330 million yuan and approximately 310 million yuan, respectively [2][4]. - The gross profit margin for the first half was approximately 32.3%, with a notable increase in the second quarter [9]. Business Segments - The home decoration business showed resilience with a revenue of approximately 1.57 billion yuan, growing by 8% year-on-year, while the average price increased by 3% to 5.9 yuan/kg [9]. - The engineering wall paint revenue was 1.8 billion yuan, down 2% year-on-year, with a price drop of 10% [9]. - The waterproof membrane revenue fell significantly by 29% to approximately 460 million yuan, indicating competitive challenges in this segment [9]. Strategic Outlook - The company is positioned as a high-growth representative in the consumer building materials sector, with both revenue and operating net profit reaching new highs [9]. - The company is expected to generate over 2 billion yuan from three new business models by 2025, contributing approximately 15% to total revenue and 35-40% to profits [9]. - Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.01 billion yuan, 1.42 billion yuan, and 1.68 billion yuan, respectively [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for Beixin Building Materials and "Overweight" for Weixing New Materials [5][9]. Core Views - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, expected to boost infrastructure in Tibet [2]. - The cement industry is currently experiencing a demand downturn, but supply-side adjustments, such as staggered production halts, are anticipated to improve the situation [2][3]. - The glass manufacturing sector is facing supply-demand contradictions, but the recent self-discipline production cuts in photovoltaic glass may alleviate some of these issues [2][6]. - The consumption building materials sector is benefiting from favorable second-hand housing transactions and consumption stimulus policies, with significant potential for market share growth [2][6]. - The fiberglass market shows signs of recovery, particularly in wind power demand, while electronic fiberglass prices remain stable amid supply-demand differentiation [2][7]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of July 18, 2025, the national cement price index is 343.37 yuan/ton, down 0.69% week-on-week, with a total cement output of 2.7828 million tons, up 2.09% [3][16]. - Infrastructure remains the only positive demand driver for cement, but local government funding pressures persist [3][16]. - The cement industry is expected to see structural opportunities in key regions like Sichuan-Chongqing and the Yangtze River Delta [3][16]. Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass is 1211.96 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.58% [6][31]. - Inventory levels for sample enterprises have decreased, indicating a potential for short-term replenishment demand [6][31]. - The market remains cautious, with limited order improvements expected in the near term [6][31]. Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The price of non-alkali fiberglass has shown slight weakness, while demand from wind power and thermoplastics remains relatively strong [7]. - The electronic fiberglass market is experiencing stable pricing, with high-end products seeing a notable supply-demand gap [7]. Consumption Building Materials - The consumption building materials sector is experiencing a weak recovery, supported by declining prices of upstream raw materials [6][7]. - Companies like Beixin Building Materials and Weixing New Materials are highlighted for their growth potential in this sector [5][9]. Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market remains stable, with production costs at 106,400 yuan/ton and a negative profit margin [8]. - Demand is expected to grow in sectors like wind power and hydrogen storage, although recovery is gradual [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the African building materials sector and local manufacturing leader Keda Manufacturing, particularly following the ignition of Keda's base in Côte d'Ivoire in June [1][13]. Core Insights - The Kenyan government has implemented a tiered tax on imported building materials, including a 3% export promotion tax on ceramic tiles and sanitary ware, aimed at reducing import dependency and fostering local manufacturing [1][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of local production and consumption integration, highlighting Keda Manufacturing's efforts to establish local production in multiple African countries [1][13]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in the PCB upstream new materials sector, particularly in electronic cloth and copper foil, driven by high demand in AI applications [2][14]. - The waterproofing industry is experiencing frequent price increases, indicating a consensus among leading companies to curb malicious competition and stabilize prices [3][15]. - The cement sector is undergoing capacity reduction efforts, with the China Cement Association advocating for a unified approach to actual and registered production capacities [3][15]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - Keda Manufacturing is recognized as a leader in local production within Africa, with recent developments in Côte d'Ivoire and supportive government policies in Kenya [1][13]. Cycle Interaction - Cement prices have shown a slight decline, with an average price of 347 RMB/t, down 46 RMB year-on-year, while glass prices have increased slightly to 1204.97 RMB/t [4][16]. - The report notes a stable demand for glass and fiberglass, with the latter maintaining a price of 3669 RMB/t [4][16][61]. National Subsidy Tracking - The report highlights government initiatives to boost consumption, including subsidies for building materials, which may benefit companies like Sangor and North New Materials [5][17]. Important Changes - Several companies, including Zhongcai Technology and China Jushi, have announced significant profit increases for the first half of 2025, indicating strong performance in the building materials sector [6][21].