摩根大通发报告指，将百度(9888.HK)评级由"中性"升至"增持"。同时因集团第三季业绩优于预期，将 2026年收入及经调整每股盈测分别上调11%/46%，百度目标价上调76%至185港元。报告表示，由于百 度云与人工智能业务即将成为其主要增长引擎与价值驱动力。据该行估算，受昆仑晶片销量激增6倍推 动，百度2026年云收入增长率将加速至约61%，云业务估值约达340亿美元。 ...

2025.11. 25 本文字数：1866，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 美股延续上周五涨势走高。市场预期美联储12月下调联邦基金利率的概率上升，投资者暂时搁置了 对科技股估值过高的担忧。 截至收盘，道指涨202.86点，涨幅0.44%，报46448.27点，纳指涨2.69%，报22872.01点，标 普500指数涨1.55%，报6705.12点。 科 技 股 全 线 拉 升 ， 特 斯 拉 涨 6.8% ， 亚 马 逊 涨 2.5% ， Meta 涨 3.2% ， 苹 果 涨 1.6% ， 英 伟 达 涨 2.0%，甲骨文涨0.7%，微软涨0.4%。 计百度云收入增速2026年将加快至约61%。阿里巴巴涨5.1%，网易涨4.2%，京东涨0.4%，拼多 多涨0.2%。 经济数据方面，达拉斯联储11月制造业指数从10 月的-5.0跌至-10.4，表明工厂活动收缩幅度扩 大。 近期为期六周的政府停摆结束后，一系列延迟发布的经济数据暗示劳动力市场疲软，这进一步增强了 投资者的乐观预期，即美联储将在12 月货币政策会议结束时实施2025年第三次降息。 美联储理事沃勒和纽约联储主席威廉姆斯的鸽派言论为 ...

中国基金报记者 格林 11月24日，港股三大指数集体大涨。截至收盘，恒生指数涨1.97%，报收于25716.50点；恒生国企指数涨1.79%，报收于9079.42点； 恒生科技指数涨2.78%，报收于5545.56点。全日大市成交额为3026亿港元，南向资金净买入85.71亿港元。 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | HSI | 恒生指数 | 25716.50c | 496.48 | 1.97% | 3026亿 | 28.20% | | 2 | HSTECH | 恒生科技 | 5545.56c | 150.07 | 2.78% | 1054亿 | 24.11% | | 3 | HSBIO | 恒生生物科技 | 15532.70c | 513.91 | 3.42% | 170亿 | 80.17% | | 4 | HSCEI | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9079.42c | 159.64 | 1.79% | 1263亿 | 24.55% | | 5 ...

Core Viewpoint - Baidu's stock has seen a pre-market increase of approximately 3.4%, reaching $114.69, while its H-shares rose about 4.2% to HKD 111.8, following an upgrade from Morgan Stanley, which raised its investment rating from "Neutral" to "Overweight" [1] Group 1: Investment Rating and Price Target - Morgan Stanley upgraded Baidu's investment rating to "Overweight" and increased the target price for its H-shares from HKD 105 to HKD 185 [1] - The target price for Baidu's U.S. shares was also raised from $110 to $188 [1] Group 2: Growth Drivers - The report highlights that market focus is shifting towards Baidu's cloud and AI businesses, which are expected to become the main growth engines and value drivers [1] - Baidu's cloud revenue growth is projected to accelerate to approximately 61% by 2026, compared to an estimated 23% for this year [1] - Sales of Kunlun chips are forecasted to increase sixfold to CNY 8.3 billion by 2026 [1] Group 3: Valuation and Market Perception - Morgan Stanley estimates the valuation of Baidu's cloud business to be around $34 billion, suggesting that the market may be underestimating its transformation potential [1] - The firm recommends investors to enter the market now to capture the opportunity for valuation re-rating [1]

（文章来源：证券时报网） 摩根大通将百度投资评级由"中性"上调至"增持"，因其云端与AI业务预计将成为主要增长引擎和价值驱 动力。摩通预测百度云收入增长将在2026年加速至约61%（今年预估为约23%），主要受昆仑芯销售大 幅增长推动。摩通估算百度云业务估值约340亿美元，认为市场可能低估其转型潜力，建议投资者入 市。摩通上调百度港股目标价至185港元，美股目标价至188美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley upgraded Baidu's investment rating from "Neutral" to "Overweight," highlighting that the market is increasingly focused on its cloud and AI businesses as primary growth engines and value drivers [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth Projections - Baidu's cloud revenue growth is expected to accelerate to approximately 61% by 2026, compared to an estimated 23% for this year, driven significantly by a substantial increase in Kunlun chip sales [1] - Morgan Stanley estimates the valuation of Baidu's cloud business to be around $34 billion, suggesting that the market may be underestimating its transformation potential [1] Group 2: Price Target Adjustments - Morgan Stanley raised Baidu's target price for Hong Kong shares from HKD 105 to HKD 185, and for U.S. shares from USD 110 to USD 188 [1] - The forecast for Kunlun chip sales is projected to grow sixfold to CNY 8.3 billion by 2026 [1]

Core Insights - Baidu reported a net loss of 11.2 billion RMB for the quarter, primarily due to long-term asset impairment, but adjusted net profit was 2.6 billion RMB, indicating underlying business strength [1] - Core revenue for Baidu declined by 7% year-on-year to 24.7 billion RMB, with online marketing revenue dropping 18% to 15.3 billion RMB, marking six consecutive quarters of decline [1][3] - Despite a robust overall internet advertising market, Baidu's online marketing struggles are attributed to the lower value of search traffic compared to social media and e-commerce platforms [3][4] Online Marketing Challenges - Baidu's traffic is comparable to Tencent and Alibaba, yet its online marketing revenue lags significantly behind, with Tencent's marketing services revenue growing 21% to 36.2 billion RMB [3] - The shift in advertising budgets towards e-commerce and social media platforms has left Baidu at a disadvantage, as it ranks ninth among preferred advertising platforms [4] AI Business Development - Baidu's AI business revenue grew over 50% year-on-year, with AI cloud services increasing by 33% and orders for its autonomous driving service, "Luobo Kuaipao," surging by 212% [6][9] - AI-driven marketing services accounted for 18% of Baidu's core online marketing revenue, up from 4% the previous year, indicating a significant shift towards AI integration [7] E-commerce Initiatives - Baidu is actively pursuing e-commerce opportunities, leveraging digital human technology for live-streaming sales, with 83% of merchants using digital humans during the recent Double Eleven shopping festival [5] - The revenue contribution from digital humans remains low, but the growth in usage suggests potential for future monetization [5] Autonomous Driving Potential - Baidu's autonomous driving service has seen a significant increase in orders, with a goal to reduce service costs and achieve profitability as the market matures [9][10] - The safety record of "Luobo Kuaipao" is strong, with no major accidents reported, but regulatory challenges remain a barrier to scaling operations [10] Market Position and Future Outlook - Baidu's current market valuation is around 40 billion USD, which contrasts sharply with the valuations of other AI companies, suggesting a potential for revaluation if AI narratives are successfully communicated [13] - The company faces challenges in converting its technological advantages into market-leading products and user engagement, particularly in the competitive AI landscape [15][16]

百度第三季度财报：总营收为312亿元，同比下滑7%。归属于百度的净亏损为112亿元，而上年同期 净利润为76亿元。归属于"百度核心"的净亏损为111亿元。不按美国通用会计准则，归属于百度的净 利润为38亿元，而上年同期净利润为59亿元。 归属于"百度核心"的净利润为38亿元，受财报影响， 周二百度股价逆市上涨2.66%！ 财报发布后，百度董事长兼CEO李彦宏，移动生态事业群总裁罗戎，智能云事业群总裁沈抖，CFO何 俊杰等高管出席随后召开的财报电话会议，解读财报要点并回答分析师提问。 以下是分析是问答环节主要内容： 花旗银行分析师Alicia Yap： 我的问题关于近期在百度世界大会上发布的文心大模型 5.0。请问这个 新模型会如何推动数字人等领域进入下一轮的应用发展阶段？文心大模型未来迭代的核心重点领域是什 么？具备哪些差异化优势？ 李彦宏： 我们反复强调的是，在文心大模型的迭代过程中，百度始终坚持以应用为驱动的发展理念。 几天前的百度世界大会上，我们正式发布了首款原生全模态基础大模型"文心大模型 5.0"。该模型在 全模态理解、创意写作以及指令遵循方面均达到顶尖水平，为我们当前及未来的产品矩阵提供了关键能 ...

专题：聚焦2025年第三季度美股财报 11月18日晚间消息，百度（Nasdaq：BIDU；HKEX：9888）今日发布了截至9月30日的2025年第三季度 财报：总营收为312亿元，同比下滑7%。归属于百度的净亏损为112亿元，而上年同期净利润为76亿 元。归属于"百度核心"的净亏损为111亿元。不按美国通用会计准则，归属于百度的净利润为38亿元， 而上年同期净利润为59亿元。归属于"百度核心"的净利润为38亿元。 详见：百度第三季度营收312亿元 经调净利润38亿元 财报发布后，百度董事长兼CEO李彦宏，移动生态事业群总裁罗戎，智能云事业群总裁沈抖，CFO何俊 杰等高管出席随后召开的财报电话会议，解读财报要点并回答分析师提问。 高盛分析师Lincoln Kong：我的问题关于百度云业务，第三季度该业务增速略有放缓，请问当前云服务 需求是否出现变化？未来几个季度能否重新提速？对明年云业务的发展前景有何展望？支撑其持续增长 的核心驱动力又有哪些？ 沈抖：观察今年以来的整体业绩，百度云业务增速显著高于行业平均水平。季度间的增速出现波动很正 常，整体增长势头依然强劲，我们对其后续增势充满信心。需求端来看，企业正推动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company's short-term advertising business is under pressure due to the impact of AI search transformation, but growth is expected from Kunlun Core, cloud services, and autonomous driving, leading to potential valuation increases. Group 1: Financial Projections - The company has slightly lowered its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 18.1 billion, 20.3 billion, and 22.9 billion yuan, respectively, from previous estimates of 19.1 billion, 21.4 billion, and 24.3 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -33.1%, +12.1%, and +13.1% [1] - The adjusted diluted EPS for 2025-2027 is projected at 6.3, 7.0, and 8.0 yuan, with current stock prices corresponding to PE ratios of 18.4, 16.4, and 14.5 for the same years [1] Group 2: AI and Product Development - The company introduced two new products under Kunlun Core, with plans for the Kunlun Core M100 to launch in 2026 and M300 in 2027, aimed at enhancing multi-modal capabilities [2] - The company emphasizes a healthy AI industry structure, advocating for a bottom-up approach starting from chip layers to application layers, which is expected to transform AI from a cost to a productivity driver [2] - The launch of the Wenxin large model 5.0 significantly enhances multi-modal capabilities, utilizing a unified modeling technology [2] Group 3: Business Expansion and Market Trends - The company is experiencing growth in its intelligent cloud services, while the autonomous driving business model is expected to gain validation and accelerate overseas market expansion [3] - As of October 2025, the autonomous driving service "萝卜快跑" has achieved over 17 million cumulative orders and has expanded operations to international markets such as Dubai and Switzerland, with a total driving distance exceeding 140 million kilometers [2]