广发证券发布研报称，资源品需求增加+矿石品位度下降，全球矿机开启新一轮上行周期。海外的增长 具有三个特点：(1)非洲、东南亚等地区是主要增长点;(2)应用领域由国内砂石骨料到海外金属矿;(3)由 中资客户到外资客户。本轮矿机周期的特点有利于中资企业的突破，前道设备标准化程度高，空间大。 广发证券主要观点如下： 资源品需求增加+矿石品位度下降，全球矿机开启新一轮上行周期 根据卡特彼勒2025投资者日，2024-2030年预计全球矿业资本开支累计增长50%。需求端，全球能源和 基础设施建设增加对关键矿种的需求，卡特预计2024-2035年铜、石墨、镍等矿种需求分别累计+22%、 +118%、+52%;供给端，全球矿石品位度在下降，卡特预计2024-2035年铜矿石品位度下降9%，推动矿 石开采量的提升和精益化生产。 非洲等地区成为新的增长极，为中资企业带来机会 前道设备标准化程度高，空间大，推荐徐工机械（000425）、三一国际，并建议关注同力股份;后道设 备定制化属性强，突破速度快，推荐运机集团、耐普矿机、并建议关注南矿集团。 风险提示：宏观经济风险;全球贸易摩擦风险;矿业资本开支风险。 后市场：矿机业务后市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - Canaan Inc. (CAN.US) reported strong Q3 2025 earnings with significant revenue growth despite a GAAP loss per share, indicating robust demand in the cryptocurrency mining sector [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 GAAP loss per share was $0.05, missing market expectations of a profit of $0.04 [1] - Revenue for Q3 reached $150.5 million, a year-over-year increase of 104.5%, exceeding expectations [1] Mining Operations - Total computing power sales surpassed 10.0 EH/s for the first time, marking a historical high with a year-over-year growth of 37.7% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 55.6% [1] - Mining revenue for the quarter was $30.6 million, a substantial year-over-year increase of 241%, setting a quarterly record [1] - The company mined 267 bitcoins during the reporting period, with an average revenue of $114,485 per bitcoin despite increasing network difficulty [1] Future Outlook - For Q4 2025, Canaan expects revenue to be in the range of $175 million to $205 million, significantly above the market consensus of $148.28 million [1] - The company noted that this outlook reflects short-term market conditions and customer demand dynamics, with potential adjustments based on market changes [1]

Core Insights - The stock price of Canaan Inc. (CAN.US) increased by 9.8% to $0.9382 following the release of its Q3 2025 earnings report, which showed a GAAP loss of $0.05 per share, missing market expectations of a profit of $0.04 per share, but revenue significantly exceeded expectations [1] Financial Performance - Canaan reported Q3 revenue of $150.5 million, representing a year-over-year growth of 104.5% and surpassing market expectations [1] - The total computing power sales reached a record high of 10.0 EH/s, marking a year-over-year increase of 37.7% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 55.6% [1] - Mining revenue for the quarter was $30.6 million, a substantial year-over-year increase of 241%, setting a quarterly record [1] - The company mined 267 bitcoins during the reporting period, with an average revenue of $114,485 per bitcoin despite increasing network difficulty [1] Future Outlook - For Q4 2025, Canaan expects revenue to be in the range of $175 million to $205 million, significantly higher than the market consensus of $148.28 million, reflecting short-term market conditions and customer demand dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jia Nan Technology, has announced an agreement with specific investors to issue 63.66 million American Depositary Shares (ADS) at a price of $1.131 each, aiming to raise approximately $72 million for various purposes [1] Group 1 - The funds raised will be allocated for the construction of data centers in North America, expansion of mining machine capacity, and research and development investments [1] - The transaction is expected to be completed by November 6, 2025 [1]

Core Insights - China's hidden hash rate has become a focal point following Luxor's Q4 2025 global hash rate map update, estimating that China currently accounts for 14.05% of Bitcoin's total hash rate, approximately 145 EH/s, a slight increase from 13.8% in Q3 [1] - Despite the crackdown in 2021, Bitcoin mining has not completely left China; it has merely gone underground, with recent increases reinforcing this reality [1] - The specific locations of this hash rate remain unclear due to a lack of regional breakdown in public data and the secretive nature of mining operations post-ban, although multiple sources indicate a recurring destination: Xinjiang [1][3] Industry Dynamics - In 2025, brokers and distributors have reportedly been sending large quantities of mining machines to Bitcoin mining sites in Xinjiang, but the vast area and the covert nature of operations make verification difficult [3] - Xinjiang, being China's largest provincial-level region, covers over 1.6 million square kilometers, accounting for about one-sixth of the country's land area, and has historically attracted off-grid industrial activities due to its isolation and abundant energy resources [3] - Recent rumors on social media suggest that authorities may have conducted raids on several mining sites in Xinjiang, allegedly seizing hundreds of thousands of mining machines, highlighting ongoing tensions between mining operators and authorities in remote provinces [3]

Group 1 - The company, Nepean Mining (stock code: 300818), announced on the evening of September 19 that it and its controlling subsidiaries do not provide guarantees to entities outside the consolidated financial statements [1] - There are no overdue debts corresponding to guarantees, no guarantees involved in litigation, and no guarantee losses due to being judged to lose a lawsuit [1]

Industry Overview - Bitcoin miners are increasingly integrating with High-Performance Computing (HPC), indicating a shift in operational focus that is expected to strengthen over time [1] - The Bitcoin mining network has achieved a significant milestone, reaching one zettahash of computing power, which equates to one sextillion computations per second [6] Market Performance - Cipher Mining's stock rose by 39% to $10.32, while Bitfarms saw a 62% increase, nearing $2 per share after CEO Ben Gagnon announced stock purchases [1] - IREN also performed well, surpassing $30 per share [1] Bitcoin Difficulty Adjustments - Recent Bitcoin difficulty adjustments show a significant upward trend, with a 7.96% increase in July followed by a 4.89% adjustment, and expectations of an additional 8% increase [2][4] - The current hash price is estimated to be between $53 to $56 per petahash per day [3] Legal and Regulatory Developments - Tether is involved in a legal dispute with Swan Bitcoin, claiming exclusive ownership over intellectual property developed in their joint venture [8][9] - A GOP lawmaker has urged a Treasury investigation into Bitmain's operations, citing potential risks to U.S. energy grid security [13][14] Company-Specific Developments - Canaan has reported strong performance, mining 1,400 Bitcoin in Q2 and shifting its operations to the U.S. [16] - Ocean Pool is facing controversy over executive compensation, with unconfirmed reports suggesting a salary of $750,000 for its CEO, which is considered high for the industry [17][18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][16] Core Views - The company has shown stable revenue growth, with a projected revenue of 548 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing an 8% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 43.6 billion yuan, up 17% year-on-year [12][13] - The company is expected to benefit from overseas development in mining machinery, which is anticipated to enhance profitability [16] Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 548 billion yuan, with a net profit of 43.6 billion yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 44.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 36% year-on-year increase [12][13] - The gross margin stood at 22.0%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 8.1%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [13] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities improved significantly, reaching 37.3 billion yuan, a 108% increase year-on-year [13] Segment Performance - Domestic revenue for H1 2025 was 292.6 billion yuan, a 2% increase year-on-year, while overseas revenue reached 255.5 billion yuan, up 17% year-on-year [14] - The company’s product performance showed that earthmoving machinery revenue increased by 22% year-on-year to 170 billion yuan, while crane revenue grew by 4% to 105 billion yuan [14] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1,037 billion yuan, 1,160.6 billion yuan, and 1,301 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 13%, 12%, and 12% respectively [16] - Net profit projections for the same period are 127 billion yuan, 146.4 billion yuan, and 166.7 billion yuan, with growth rates of 30%, 22%, and 20% respectively [16] Strategic Developments - The company has successfully expanded its overseas business, securing large orders from global mining leaders such as Vale and BHP, and has integrated its mining machinery offerings through acquisitions [15][16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that XCMG Machinery is optimistic about the growth prospects of both domestic and international markets, driven by globalization, technological innovation, and expansion into emerging markets [1] - The company expects a sustained export growth of over 10% in the second half of the year due to favorable policies, renewal cycles, and advancements in new energy and intelligent technologies [1] - Domestic demand for excavators is anticipated to recover due to infrastructure investments, the recovery of the mining sector, and the acceleration of major projects, leading to a rebound in demand for medium and large excavators [1] Group 2 - In terms of mining machinery product structure and planning, the integration of the wide-body truck business will enhance the company's competitive position, providing a comprehensive solution for open-pit mining machinery [2] - The company is currently the leading player in domestic mining machinery and ranks among the top five globally, with plans to continue integrating its industrial segments and enhancing its international presence [2] - The overseas market is expected to maintain a positive trend, with export revenues growing due to the improvement in product quality, enhanced channels and services, and the advancement of domestic companies' global strategies [2]

Group 1: Market Outlook - The industry is expected to maintain over 10% growth in exports in the second half of the year due to global expansion, technological innovation, and emerging market development [2] - Domestic sales are projected to recover, driven by policy benefits, renewal cycles, and advancements in new energy and smart technology [2] Group 2: Excavator Demand - Domestic demand is supported by ongoing infrastructure investment, recovery in the mining sector, and acceleration of major projects, leading to a rebound in demand for medium and large excavators [2] - Export trends for excavators are positive, attributed to improved competitiveness of domestic brands and increased global infrastructure investments [3] Group 3: Mining Machinery Strategy - The integration of wide-body trucks into the company’s portfolio aims to create a comprehensive solution for open-pit mining, enhancing competitiveness in the mining machinery sector [3] - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic market and among the top five globally in mining machinery, with a focus on enhancing international presence and contributions from new energy [3] Group 4: International Market Expansion - The company has a robust global marketing network covering over 190 countries, facilitating comprehensive product and service offerings [3] - The overseas market is expected to continue its positive trend, with growth in export revenue driven by increasing demand for domestic brands and improved product quality [3]