证券研究报告 纺织服饰 | 服装家纺 港股|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 01 日 证券分析师 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 周宸宇 zhouchenyu@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 06 月 27 | | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | | 4.99 | | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | | 5.02/3.15 | | | 元） | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | | 10,317.73 | | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | | 10,317.73 | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | 26.72 | | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | 361 度(01361.HK) 投资评级： 买入（首次） ——产品研发提升品牌专业属性，渠道革新夯实公司业绩增长 投资要点： | 盈利预测与估值（人民币） | | | | | ...

Core Insights - The youth sports shoe market in China is experiencing significant growth, driven by increased demand from parents for suitable running shoes for their children, particularly in light of new educational policies promoting physical activity [2][4][6]. Market Overview - The Chinese sports shoe market is projected to exceed 500 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8%-10% [2]. - The youth segment is growing faster than the overall market, with an expected annual growth rate of 12.5% or higher [6]. Consumer Behavior - Parents are increasingly purchasing running shoes for their children, especially in preparation for physical fitness tests, leading to a surge in sales [4][5]. - The popularity of "test shoes" has led to a 976% increase in sales during specific promotional periods [4]. Brand Strategies - Major brands like Li Ning, Anta, and 361 Degrees are actively launching new products tailored for youth, including specialized running shoes and multi-sport options [5][9]. - Brands are also engaging in community-building activities such as running camps and parent-child competitions to capture market share [5]. Technological Advancements - Domestic brands are investing heavily in research and development, with Li Ning increasing its R&D expenditure by 9.3% to 676 million yuan, while Anta plans to invest 20 billion yuan over the next five years [9]. - The focus on technology and product performance is evident, with brands developing shoes that cater specifically to the needs of young athletes [9][11]. Market Potential - The youth sports consumption market is estimated to have a potential scale of 235 billion yuan, supported by government policies encouraging sports participation among students [7]. - The youth population engaged in sports is approximately 130 million, indicating a robust market opportunity [7]. Competitive Landscape - Domestic brands are gaining traction due to their understanding of local consumer preferences, offering stylish, affordable, and functional products [11]. - The competitive environment is intensifying, with brands shifting focus from just product offerings to enhancing overall consumer experience [13]. Health Considerations - Experts emphasize the importance of selecting appropriate footwear for youth, cautioning against overly specialized shoes that may not support healthy foot development [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The increasing popularity of carbon plate running shoes among middle and primary school students raises concerns about their impact on foot development and potential health risks [1][6][8]. Group 1: Popularity and Usage - Carbon plate running shoes, originally designed for elite athletes, are now widely favored by students for their stylish appearance and perceived performance benefits [2][3]. - Many students view carbon plate running shoes as essential items, leading to a culture of comparison and social status among peers [5][3]. - Parents report pressure from children to purchase these shoes, often without understanding the associated risks [3][4]. Group 2: Health Risks - Medical experts warn that prolonged use of carbon plate running shoes can lead to serious foot issues, including plantar fasciitis, flat feet, and tendon injuries due to the shoes' design not being suitable for daily wear [6][7]. - The shoes' high rebound properties may weaken the muscles in the ankle and foot, increasing the risk of injuries such as sprains [6][7]. - There are concerns that wearing these shoes can disrupt body balance and lead to abnormal walking patterns, potentially causing spinal issues over time [7][8]. Group 3: Recommendations and Awareness - Experts suggest that students should opt for regular sports shoes with adequate cushioning and stability for daily activities [8]. - Educational institutions and regulatory bodies are encouraged to conduct awareness campaigns to inform parents and students about the appropriate use of carbon plate running shoes [8]. - Parents are advised to critically assess their children's requests for these shoes and educate them about the potential health risks associated with their use [8].

随着智能穿戴设备普及，能够显示配速、心率、血氧等数据的运动手表成为众多跑步爱好者的标配。除 了记录基础数据，更多消费者希望将日常生活中的健康数据与运动数据相结合，以此分析和解读身体状 态变化，评估个人运动水平。这意味着，跑步运动装备将不仅仅局限于简单的监测，未来还将与医疗机 构和健康服务平台实现深度对接。相关企业可加强与医疗机构的合作与沟通，为消费者提供更精准的运 动方案和健康管理等服务，让装备消费和服务消费为企业带来更多机遇。 （文章来源：经济日报） 在全民健身热潮下，跑步成为不少人生活中不可或缺的一部分。销售数据显示，跑步装备销售火热，越 野跑鞋、跑步护踝、跑步腰包、运动手表等产品受到消费者青睐。 除了功能性，时尚属性也成为很多跑步装备的卖点。不少品牌推出的"运动休闲系列"大受欢迎，瑜伽 裤、防风外套等设计感十足的跑步单品，被年轻消费者当作日常穿搭。这反映出跑步装备已从跑步场景 向更多场景延伸，跑步装备的销售空间也将进一步扩大。 对于普通跑步爱好者来说，跑步是为了健康，选择适合自己的跑步装备也是为了更科学地锻炼，避免受 伤。从数据来看，包括跑鞋、护踝、跑步袜、心率带等产品在内的装备销量增长较快，反映了消费 ...

同质化竞争没有出路 古典经济学认为，价值由劳动创造。简单来说，就是一件产品的价格由它的成本决定，成本包括原 材料成本、人力成本、时间成本等。 那么 在当前已经充分竞争的电商行业中 是否还存在 个需求没有被充分满足的 空白 地带？ 但同质化商品的低价竞争，并没有创造出新的需求。 当需求不足时，商家通常会通过各种方式降低成本，以更低的价格与同类商品竞争。这种情况愈演 愈烈，就演变成了低效的同质化竞争。这种现象在如今的电商平台上普遍存在，商家互相比拼低 价，甚至不惜"赔钱赚吆喝"。 那么，在当前已经充分竞争的电商行业中，是否还存在一个需求没有被充分满足的"空白"地带？ 1890年，英国经济学家、经济学新古典学派创始人阿尔弗雷德·马歇尔（Alfred Marshall）在其出版 的《经济学原理》书中提出均衡价格理论，他认为，价格由供需关系决定，而非劳动。 作者 丨瀚星 同质化竞争本质上是供需关系的错配，已有的需求面临供给过剩，而新的需求没有被看到。 被错配的供需关系 2020年，每10个中国人有8个在网购。到2024年6月，网购渗透率增长至82%，4年多时间仅增长了 2%左右，电商行业的人口红利早已见顶。 与此同时， ...

在互联网行业 AI 浪潮汹涌，众多企业纷纷追逐风口之时，拼多多交出的 2025 年第一季度财报，在市 场中激起千层浪。 财报显示，一季度拼多多实现营收 957 亿元，同比增长 10%。营业利润为160.856亿元，同比下降 38%。非美国通用会计准则下营业利润为182.597亿元，同比下降36%。财报公布后，拼多多股价一度大 跌，最终收跌接近14%。 然而，这场看似 "失意" 的财报背后，实则暗藏着拼多多对电商行业未来发展的深刻洞察与坚定抉择。 一、业绩背后的战略取舍 从表面数据看，拼多多业绩不及预期，资本市场也用股价的剧烈波动表达了担忧。但拨开迷雾深入分 析，便会发现，这一切都源于拼多多在电商行业变革期的关键战略抉择。 随着业务规模的持续扩大，外部竞争环境变得日益复杂，市场增长速度的放缓已成为行业的普遍现象。 然而，与一些企业为追求短期利益而采取收缩战略的做法迥异，拼多多选择了支持电商可持续发展的高 质量路径。 事实上，自去年下半年起，拼多多便加速推进高质量发展战略。彼时，电商行业面临流量红利消退、消 费需求分层的双重压力，头部平台纷纷寻求破局路径。 拼多多率先推出 "百亿减免""电商西进" 等举措，前者通 ...

目前，四川有鞋业企业(含外贸、内销、制鞋、鞋材、配件等企业)2400余家，其中成都约2000家，占全 省总数的83.3%，规上制鞋企业总数居全省第一位。成都鞋业历史悠久、底蕴深厚，规模和产量在全国 占据重要地位，是中国女鞋制造的主要产业带之一。但当前，国际贸易摩擦加剧，加之东南亚国家低 成本劳动力优势及发达国家技术壁垒冲击，传统鞋企正面临"三明治式"挤压。 当碳板跑鞋的研发投入堪比精密仪器的研发投入，当虚拟鞋履的交易规模突破10亿美元，鞋业的价值 维度已从单一制造扩展到材料革命、数字智能、文化表达、生态责任等多重领域，这个看似传统的产 业正在重新定义"高端"的内涵。成都鞋业的未来，不在于摆脱"制造"标签，而在于将传统制造优势转 化为"智造+创造"的复合竞争力，在产业变革的浪潮中实现价值重构。 现状：自主品牌少难以形成更大产业价值 设计赋能，实现从代工到品牌化的跃迁。建议锚定中高端女性消费群体，以设计创新为核心，重塑产 业定位。依托四川大学轻工科学与工程学院、皮革化学与工程教育部重点实验室的科研资源，建立产 学研协同创新平台，强化新材料、新工艺研发，推动产品向轻奢化、个性化转型。联合高校、行业协 会等定期举办" ...

Core Insights - The report titled "2025 Autumn and Winter Taobao Tmall Sports and Outdoor Industry Footwear and Apparel Trend White Paper" analyzes the current state, trends, and platform strategies of the sports and outdoor footwear and apparel market for the upcoming seasons [1][5][28] - The sports industry is experiencing robust growth driven by policies, industry developments, and events, with outdoor products becoming popular gifts and a continuous influx of new customers [1][5] - Consumer behavior is evolving, with a shift towards multi-dimensional sports engagement, allowing businesses to precisely target potential users [1][5][16] Market Trends - The report highlights significant growth in core categories such as down jackets, jackets, and pants, with ongoing upgrades in functionality and aesthetics to meet diverse scene requirements [1][5][28] - Popular style themes include "Modern Snow Domain," "Symbiotic Wilderness," "Dimensional Awakening," "Elegant Intelligence," "Urban Wilderness," and "Light Oxygen Healing," each characterized by unique design, functionality, and color combinations [1][5][28] Platform Strategies - Taobao Tmall is enhancing its operational strategies by upgrading inventory trends to help merchants discover opportunities and expose new products [1][5][28] - The platform is focusing on serving the MVP (Most Valuable Player) demographic, improving user engagement, and utilizing live streaming to amplify new product launches [1][5][28] Consumer Insights - The report indicates that over 70% of consumers choose sports and outdoor products for holiday and gift-giving purposes, emphasizing practicality and emotional value [1][20][23] - New customer segments are emerging, particularly among young professionals who view outdoor activities as a means of self-reward and stress relief [1][16][20] Industry Outlook - The sports and outdoor market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with new customer influx and increasing diversity in product categories and purchase frequency [1][28][29] - The integration of advanced technologies and data-driven insights is anticipated to drive product innovation and enhance consumer experiences [1][30][31]

一场酝酿了 17 年的 "长跑"。 同样坚持跑步这项运动的还有特步创始人丁水波。他曾在多个场合阐述特步对跑步产业的重视，去年公司 上市 15 周年时说，"跑鞋一定是特步的绝对核心产品，如果要选一个品类代表特步，那一定是跑步。" 跑 鞋在特步整体营收中占比超过六成，高于安踏、李宁、361 等其他国产运动品牌集团。 今年上半年，特步集团营收同比增长 10.4% 至 72 亿元。其中特步主品牌表现稳定，收入约 58 亿元。索康 尼所在的专业运动板块营收 5.9 亿元，增幅达 72.2%，在整体营收中的占比升至 8%。得益于对成本的控 制，毛利率增长 3 个百分点至 46%。 双品牌聚焦 "跑步" 核心业务 特步收购盖世威、帕拉丁品牌五年后，今年 5 月，创始人丁水波家族决定以 1.51 亿美元将其私有化，减轻 对公司财务报表影响的同时，将资源集中在特步主品牌和高端跑鞋品牌索康尼（Saucony），更聚焦跑步 业务。 2019 年，在收购盖世威、帕拉丁的同一年，特步收购了索康尼和户外品牌迈乐（MERRELL）在中国市场 的所有权，以和 Wolverine 成立合资公司的方式在国内销售。 "跑步能按照自己的步伐来做一件 ...