当前，外部环境复杂多变，主要发达经济体货币政策存在高度不确定性。受访专家普遍认为，当前，我 国货币政策有充分条件坚持"以我为主"，下半年海外货币政策调整对我国货币政策自主性的影响有限。 坚持"以我为主"有充分条件 宏观政策发力稳增长为稳汇率提供关键支撑 我国货币政策有条件坚持"以我为主" 下半年，尽管海外央行货币政策调整存在不确定性，我国货币政策仍有充分条件坚持"以我为主""对内 优先"。 当前，市场普遍预期美联储下半年重启降息，但降息节奏和路径尚不明朗。 当前，外部环境复杂多变，主要发达经济体货币政策存在高度不确定性。受访专家普遍认为，当前，我 国货币政策有充分条件坚持"以我为主"，下半年海外货币政策调整对我国货币政策自主性的影响有限。 "这背后是我国已经建立了跨境资金流动'宏观审慎+微观监管'两位一体监管框架，因套利引发的大规模 跨境资金流动得到有效控制。"王青解释，与此同时，监管部门持续优化汇市调控工具箱，积累了丰富 的调控经验，完全有能力防控汇率超调风险。 稳增长为稳汇率提供关键支撑 中国人民银行近日召开的2025年下半年工作会议提出，保持汇率弹性，强化预期引导，防范汇率超调风 险。受访专家认为，未来 ...

民币资产收益率预期,引导企业改善结汇行为。 图说金融(20250805) : 人民币对美元中间价连续调升 1、8月5日,中国外汇交易中心公布的人民币对美元汇率中间价为7.1366,相较前一交易日中间价7.1395继续升值29基 点。人民币对美元中间价连续两个交易日升值,续创2024年11月6日以来的升值高点。 2、人民币中间价连续调升透露以下几点信号:一是央行通过政策引导汇率升值预期,体现"稳汇率"到"稳预期" 的调整。二是响应"反内卷"政策,人民币适度升值有利于降低进口成本,提高国内购买力及消费水平。三是上修人 风险提示:仅作为数据展示,不构成策略建议 人民币对美元中间价连续调升 中间价:美元兑人民币 -- =美元兑人民币(USDCNY) 0.05 7.4 7.3 0 7.2 -0.05 7.1 -0.1 -0.15 6.9 -0.2 z - 70-1 0-10 1-13-1 7-15-1 7-15-2 os are and 7-10- -11-2 024-02- 024-02- 024-01- 024-01- 40 04 资料来源: Wind 中信期货研究所,更新至2025/8/5 固定收益组 程小庆 邮 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to support technological innovation, boost consumption, assist small and micro enterprises, stabilize foreign trade, and deepen financial reform and high-level opening-up, aiming for high-quality economic development in the second half of 2025 [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The PBOC has outlined seven key areas for the next phase of work, including the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the focus on serving the real economy [2] - The PBOC aims to maintain ample liquidity and guide financial institutions to ensure reasonable credit growth, aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [2][3] - The meeting indicates a shift towards emphasizing the efficiency of fund usage, with a focus on "activating stock and utilizing increment" [2][3] Group 2: Support for the Real Economy - The PBOC has strengthened financial services for economic structural transformation and high-quality development, focusing on supporting technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [4] - As of June, loans for technology, green projects, inclusive small and micro enterprises, the elderly care industry, and the digital economy grew by 12.5%, 25.5%, 12.3%, 43%, and 11.5% year-on-year, respectively [4] - The PBOC plans to enhance support for technology innovation and technical transformation loans, promoting rapid growth in loans for technology-oriented small and medium enterprises [4][5] Group 3: Future Outlook - The PBOC is expected to increase financial support for technological innovation, potentially through low-interest loans to qualifying tech enterprises and new structural monetary policy tools [6] - The meeting also emphasizes maintaining exchange rate flexibility and preventing excessive fluctuations, while cautiously advancing the internationalization of the Renminbi [6]

Core Viewpoint - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) has signaled a stable exchange rate and reported that foreign investment in domestic stocks and funds increased by over $10.1 billion in the first half of 2025, indicating a growing global interest in the Chinese market [2][3]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - In the first half of 2025, foreign investment in domestic stocks and funds amounted to $10.1 billion, reversing a two-year trend of net reductions [4]. - The net inflow of foreign capital into the domestic stock market increased significantly in May and June, reaching $18.8 billion, reflecting enhanced global capital allocation intentions towards the Chinese market [4]. - The total foreign investment in RMB-denominated bonds has also risen, with foreign holdings exceeding $600 billion, marking a historically high level [4]. Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - The total cross-border income and expenditure of non-bank sectors reached $7.6 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, setting a historical record for the same period [4]. - Non-bank sectors experienced a net inflow of $127.3 billion in cross-border funds, continuing the net inflow trend observed since the second half of the previous year, with a 46% quarter-on-quarter increase in the second quarter [4]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Market Activity - The total trading volume in the domestic RMB foreign exchange market reached $21 trillion in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.2% [6]. - The trading volumes for spot and derivative transactions were $7.4 trillion and $13.6 trillion, accounting for 35% and 65% of the total trading volume, respectively [6]. Group 4: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of June 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3.3174 trillion, an increase of $115.1 billion from the end of 2024, indicating a stable upward trend in reserves [7]. Group 5: Future Measures by SAFE - SAFE plans to expand innovative pilot policies to more free trade zones across the country, enhancing cross-border trade facilitation and investment openness [9]. - The agency is preparing to eliminate the registration requirement for foreign direct investment reinvestment in China, aiming to streamline processes and reduce operational costs for foreign investors [9]. - SAFE will also increase the borrowing limit for certain innovative enterprises to $20 million, facilitating access to foreign debt [10]. Group 6: Exchange Rate Stability - SAFE has reassured the market regarding exchange rate stability, noting that the RMB's market-based formation mechanism has improved, allowing for timely responses to external pressures [12]. - The RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of 2025, with fluctuations maintained within a reasonable range, contributing to macroeconomic stability [13].

Monetary Policy Overview - In the first half of the year, China's monetary policy can be divided into two phases, with a cautious approach in Q1 due to exchange rate depreciation pressures and strong market expectations [1] - In April, the focus shifted to "stabilizing growth" as the primary goal of monetary policy, leading to a reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates in May [1][2] - The expectation for the second half of the year is that monetary policy will continue to emphasize "stabilizing growth," with potential for further easing measures [1][2] Economic Indicators - The growth rate of social financing increased to 8.9% year-on-year, supported by government bond financing, but may face challenges in the second half due to a potential slowdown in new government debt issuance [3] - The total scale of government bonds for the year is projected at 13.86 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of only 2.9 billion yuan compared to 2024 [3] Exchange Rate Dynamics - The overall trend for the US dollar is expected to remain weak, influenced by concerns over US economic recession and the long-term trend of de-dollarization in global markets [3][4] - A weaker dollar is anticipated to provide effective support for the Chinese yuan, with expectations of a slight appreciation to around 7 to 7.1 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Q2 monetary policy regular meeting basically continued the previous tone. After the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, the expression of aggregate monetary policy tools was adjusted to "flexibly grasp the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation." - In terms of narrow - liquidity, attention remains on capital use efficiency and capital idling. Since the second quarter, exchange - rate pressure has eased, and the constraint on internal - external balance has weakened. The current capital price center has significantly recovered from a level higher than the policy interest rate, and it is expected that the scope for substantial further easing may be limited. - The meeting continued to retain statements related to the long - end yield trend. Recently, the bond market sentiment has strengthened, and leveraged trading has increased. Given that capital prices are unlikely to decline further, it is expected that the long - end yield will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range of 1.6 - 1.7% in the short term [2][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation - The Q2 monetary policy regular meeting made more positive statements about economic recovery. The assessment of the economic situation in the meeting communique changed from "the economy is generally stable and making progress while maintaining stability" to "the economy shows a positive trend, and social confidence continues to be boosted," affirming more positive factors in economic recovery. However, the assessment of the external environment changed from "weak growth momentum" to "weakening growth momentum" [2][4][5]. 3.2 Policy Tone - The wording in the communique of this monetary policy regular meeting continued the "moderate easing" stance, changing from "choosing the right time to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates" to "flexibly grasp the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation." The monetary policy setting followed the "moderate easing" statement in the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2024. The meeting communique continued to "strengthen" counter - cyclical adjustment and reiterated better use of the total and structural dual functions of monetary policy tools. After the "dual cuts" in May, it indicates that the policy maintains a loose orientation in terms of quantity to address domestic demand shortages and external uncertainties, but the form and rhythm of monetary policy operations have high flexibility [2][5][6]. 3.3 Narrow Liquidity - Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the monetary policy regular meeting has consistently emphasized "preventing capital idling." Although the first - quarter monetary policy report did not mention "capital idling," this monetary policy regular meeting still emphasized it after "smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism and improve capital use efficiency," continuing the statement since the fourth quarter of 2024. Since April, due to trade frictions, the capital price center has significantly loosened. Currently, DR007 has dropped to around 1.5%, suggesting that capital prices are unlikely to decline significantly further, and the capital environment will remain balanced [2][8][9]. 3.4 Exchange - Rate Stabilization - The intensity of the wording was reduced, and the "three resolutes" were no longer mentioned. The Q1 regular meeting mentioned the "three resolutes" regarding the exchange rate: correcting pro - cyclical behavior, dealing with market disruptions, and preventing over - adjustment risks. In Q2, as the pressure to stabilize the exchange rate eased, the relevant statements were removed from the meeting communique, leaving only the statement of "maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate." Since April, the RMB exchange rate has gradually appreciated from a high of around 7.35 to around 7.17. In the short term, due to the weakening of the US dollar index, the pressure on the RMB exchange rate is relatively limited, so the policy's wording on "stabilizing the exchange rate" has also been adjusted [2][13][14]. 3.5 Real - Estate Policy - The previous policies were recognized, and the goal was to "consolidate the stable situation," continuing the statement of the previous Politburo meeting. Compared with the Q1 monetary policy regular meeting, the communique for this meeting changed from emphasizing "promoting the real - estate market to stop falling and recover" to "consolidating the stable situation," following the spirit of the Politburo meeting at the end of April and recognizing the effectiveness of the previous round of policies [2][14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan exchange rate indices showed an overall increase in the week of June 20, with the CFETS index rising by 0.43% to 95.92, the BIS index increasing by 0.58% to 101.51, and the SDR index up by 0.39% to 90.75 [1][2]. Exchange Rate Indices - CFETS RMB Exchange Rate Index: 95.92 [2] - BIS Currency Basket RMB Exchange Rate Index: 101.51 [2] - SDR Currency Basket RMB Exchange Rate Index: 90.75 [2] Market Analysis - The US dollar index rebounded slightly by approximately 0.5% last week, while most non-US currencies depreciated, with the Norwegian krone dropping 1.89% due to an unexpected rate cut [5]. - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.1820, a slight decrease of 0.01%, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.14% to 7.17939 [5]. - The RMB central parity rate against the USD increased by 0.11% to 7.1695, indicating a stable performance of the RMB against the USD [5]. Policy Signals - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) issued 300 billion yuan in offshore central bank bills, signaling a commitment to stabilize the exchange rate amid a strengthening dollar [6]. - Analysts suggest that the PBOC's actions may support the RMB's appreciation in the short term, as the implied volatility of the RMB remains low [6]. Domestic Financial Developments - The PBOC announced eight significant financial opening measures aimed at enhancing the international financial center in Shanghai, including the establishment of a digital RMB international operation center and a personal credit institution [7]. - The National Financial Supervision Administration plans to release an action plan to support Shanghai's development as an international financial center, focusing on innovation in technology finance and cross-border finance [7]. Economic Indicators - From January to May, China's general public budget revenue was 96,623 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 6.2% [8]. - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, growing by 6.4% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [9].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, as of June 20, 2025, which aligns with market expectations following a previous decrease in May [1][3]. Group 1 - The LPR remained stable after a 10 basis point decrease in May, which was anticipated by market participants [3]. - Experts suggest that the PBOC's previous policy rate cuts will lead to a more significant reduction in loan rates for businesses and individuals, thereby lowering financing costs for the real economy [4]. - In May, the weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.2%, down about 50 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for new personal housing loans was around 3.1%, down about 55 basis points year-on-year [4]. Group 2 - Analysts believe there is still potential for further LPR declines, but caution against overly optimistic expectations regarding the pace and magnitude of future rate changes [4]. - The external environment remains uncertain, and domestic growth stabilization policies should not be relaxed, indicating that the central bank may continue to lower interest rates in the second half of the year [4].

Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank has decided to implement a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 0.5 percentage points, expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity, promoting stable growth in loans for households and enterprises[2] - A simultaneous reduction of 0.25 percentage points in the interest rates of structural monetary tools such as re-loans for agriculture and small enterprises will help lower the cost of liabilities for commercial banks, stabilizing net interest margins and enhancing the efficiency of interest rate transmission[2] - The expectation for continued active use of RRR cuts in the second half of the year remains, with an annual forecast of 100-150 basis points (BP) in total[2] Real Estate and Consumption - Policy interest rates have been reduced by 10 basis points (BP) and public housing loan rates by 25 BP to stabilize the real estate market, which is crucial for supporting domestic demand[3] - The creation of 500 billion yuan in service consumption and pension re-loans aims to stimulate demand for durable goods and services, particularly in the post-real estate cycle[3] - The recent downward trend in the real estate market, especially in second and third-tier cities, indicates that policy support is still needed to maintain stability[3] Economic Strategy and Trade Relations - The "stable exchange rate - stable real estate - promote domestic demand" cycle is expected to strengthen, providing a basis for China to engage in equal trade negotiations with the U.S.[3] - The Ministry of Commerce has signaled a willingness to engage in talks with the U.S., emphasizing mutual respect and benefit as prerequisites for dialogue[3] - The combination of stable real estate policies and measures to boost consumption and investment is enhancing market confidence in China's ability to manage external shocks[3] Capital Market Support - The central bank is increasing support for technological innovation and transformation with an additional 300 billion yuan in re-loans, alongside the creation of risk-sharing tools for tech innovation bonds[4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) plans to introduce further reforms for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market to enhance market inclusivity and adaptability[4] - A combined monetary policy tool worth 800 billion yuan is aimed at stabilizing capital market expectations and mitigating potential market volatility risks[4]

市场的每次涨涨跌跌都有其背后的逻辑和故事，但有时我们知道其原因，有时却什么都不知道。而且， 一个逻辑讲完，又会来另一个，你也不知道什么时候结束，什么时候又来个新的。 央行持续释放稳汇率信号，资金面紧张，出口数据好于预期，债市利率震荡上行。 早盘债市情绪平稳，10Y国债利率小幅下至1.61%附近（昨收1.6175%）。随后央行公告上调跨境融资宏 观审慎调节参数，外汇市场指导委员会会议强调要"坚定不移"保持汇率基本稳定。"稳汇率"信号带动 10Y国债利率上行至1.6375%。 或受"抢出口效应"影响，12月出口数据好于预期。股市偏弱震荡，10Y国债利率小幅下至1.625%。后传 央行要求中金所配合提高国债期货交易保证金及手续费，叠加资金持续紧张，10Y国债利率震荡上行至 1.645%。 所以，我们就需要找到一条市场波动的主线。这个主线就是利差。因为债券投资的本质是套利，获得收 益的本源是债券的票面利息。 ——笔记哥《分析》 【笔记20250113— 忍无可忍，央妈拔网线了（-央行上调跨境融资宏观审慎调节参数-出口数据好于预 期-资金面紧张=中上)】 资金面紧张，长债收益率明显上行。 央行公开市场开展248亿元7天 ...