（责任编辑：华青剑） "综合各类影响因素，我们判断短期内人民币还会处于偏强运行状态。"王青说。 9月17日，离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中升破7.1，为2024年11月7日以来首次。Wind数据显示，截至 《证券日报》记者发稿时，离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中最高升至7.0999，亦创去年11月7日以来新高；9 月份以来，离岸人民币对美元汇率涨幅达0.26%。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，近日人民币对美元汇率走高，主要是美联储9月份降息已是"板 上钉钉"，且市场对年底前美联储还可能有进一步较大幅度降息的预期升温，美元显著下行，这给包括 人民币在内的非美货币带来较强的被动升值动能。另外，近期国内股市保持强势，外资加速流入。在带 动结汇需求增加的同时，也在改善汇市情绪。同时，近期人民币中间价继续在偏强方向调控。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the RMB to USD exchange rate reflect a combination of global economic uncertainties, domestic economic data volatility, and complex international trade dynamics [4][5]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Dynamics - The official midpoint rate for RMB against USD was reported at 7.1321, while the onshore RMB fell below 7.18, reaching 7.1802, and the offshore RMB was at 7.1828 [2]. - The decline in the onshore RMB by 32 basis points and the offshore RMB by 8 basis points indicates a cautious market sentiment, with investors closely monitoring economic data and policy developments [5]. Group 2: Impact on Trade and Businesses - For export companies, a weaker RMB can enhance competitiveness as foreign clients can purchase more Chinese goods for fewer dollars, potentially boosting sales [8]. - Conversely, import companies face increased costs as they need to spend more RMB to acquire USD for payments, raising operational expenses [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Future exchange rate movements are influenced by key indicators such as the People's Bank of China's monetary policy, significant domestic and international economic data releases, and changes in international trade patterns [9]. - Investors are advised to focus on scientific asset allocation and risk diversification rather than attempting to predict exchange rate fluctuations [9].

Employment Data Insights - July non-farm employment increased by 74,000, below the expected 110,000[4] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% from May to July, with hourly wages rising from 3.8% to 3.9% year-on-year[4] - Survey response rates for employment data have declined significantly, with May's response rate at 42.9%, down from 59% pre-pandemic[7] Federal Reserve Insights - The number of dissenting votes in the July Federal Reserve meeting reached the highest level in 32 years, with two members opposing the decision to maintain interest rates[10] - Speculative net short positions on the broad dollar fell to 20,000 contracts, the lowest level in four months, indicating reduced bearish sentiment[13] Inflation Expectations - Despite disappointing employment data, short-term inflation expectations remain elevated, with the 2-year CPI swap dropping from 3% to 2.9%[16] - The 5-year CPI swap also decreased from 2.7% to 2.6%, aligning with June's CPI year-on-year figure of 2.7%[16] Market Valuation Metrics - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index is currently at 5.2%, which is one standard deviation above the 16-year average, suggesting potential for valuation uplift[19] - The forward arbitrage return on China's 10-year government bonds is 18 basis points, up 48 basis points from December 2016 levels[22] Currency and Commodity Trends - The 3-month USD/JPY basis swap is at -19.4 basis points, indicating a higher cost of dollar financing for offshore institutions[25] - The copper-to-gold price ratio has decreased to 2.9, while the offshore RMB exchange rate has risen to 7.2, indicating diverging trends in demand and currency valuation[28] Stock and Bond Performance - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds is at 24.9, below the 16-year average, suggesting a return to mean levels and increasing attractiveness of equities relative to fixed income[30]

Core Insights - The offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) against the US dollar closed at 7.1726 on May 23, showing an increase of 318 points compared to the previous day's close [1] - The trading range for the day was between 7.2058 and 7.1713, approaching the peak of 7.1457 expected on November 8, 2024 [1]

离岸人民币早盘继续走强，离岸人民币兑美元升破7.19关口。 ...

离岸人民币对美元直线 拉升逾100点，升破7.2关口。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The onshore RMB against the US dollar opened at 7.2345, an increase of nearly 290 points compared to the closing price on April 30, following a significant rise in the offshore RMB during the holiday period [1] Group 1 - The onshore RMB's opening rate reflects a strong performance, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - The increase of nearly 290 points suggests a notable appreciation in the RMB's value against the US dollar [1] - The movement in the onshore RMB is closely linked to the trends observed in the offshore RMB market during the holiday [1]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) against the US dollar showed a significant appreciation, closing at 7.2011, marking a rise of 119 points from the previous Friday's close, continuing the upward trend from last week [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Currency Performance** - The CNH traded within a range of 7.2199 to 7.1845 during the day [1] - The currency approached a peak of 7.1457, which is expected to be reached on November 8, 2024 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) against the US dollar showed significant appreciation, closing at 7.2103, marking a rise of 686 points from the previous trading day [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Exchange Rate Movement** - The CNH traded within a range of 7.2808 to 7.2091 during the day, surpassing the previous peak of 7.2157 reached on March 12 [1] - The current level is approaching the top of 7.1864 expected on November 11, 2024 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has surpassed the 7.25 mark against the US dollar, experiencing an intraday increase of nearly 300 points [1] Group 1 - The offshore RMB's rise indicates a strengthening of the currency against the US dollar [1] - The movement of the RMB may reflect broader market trends and investor sentiment towards the Chinese economy [1]