人民币贬值，你的"钱包"是否悄然"缩水"？ 汇率风云，普通人的"钱袋子"受何影响？ "哎，今天换美元又亏了？"老张盯着手机屏幕，眉头紧锁。旁边同事小李凑过来："咋啦？汇率又跌了？"老张叹了口气："可不嘛，昨天刚换了一万美金， 今天一睁眼，好家伙，直接'蒸发'了好几百块！" 这样的对话，在汇率波动频繁的当下，几乎成了办公室里的"日常"。8月24日，人民币兑美元汇率再次成为焦点。官方公布的中间价为1美元兑7.1321元人民 币，而境内市场的在岸人民币（CNY）则跌破了7.18元关口，触及7.1802元；与此同时，境外市场的离岸人民币（CNH）也紧随其后，报7.1828元。这背后 复杂的数字游戏，究竟隐藏着哪些不为人知的门道？ 是谁在幕后拨动汇率的"指挥棒"？ 简单来说，汇率，就是两种不同货币之间的"价值标尺"。它如同一个灵敏的晴雨表，精准地反映着一个国家的经济实力、国际市场的投资情绪，甚至政策的 风向。此次人民币兑美元汇率的下跌，并非单一因素所致，而是多重力量共同作用下的结果。 全球经济普遍弥漫着不确定性的阴云，这使得投资者纷纷寻求"避险"资产。而美元，作为全球公认的"硬通货"和"避风港"，自然吸引了大量资金的青 ...

资产配置快评 2025 年 08 月 05 日 证 券 研 究 报 告 邮箱：niubokun@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360514030002 证券分析师：郭忠良 【资产配置快评】2025 年第 35 期 Riders on the Charts: 每周大类资产配置图 表精粹 投资摘要： Strong tech is always a sharp instrument. —Dr Alexander Caedmon Karp 1. 非农就业人数不及预期或难以推动美国失业率走高 2. 持续下降的调查回复率影响美国就业数据的质量 3. 美联储 7 月份议息会议的反对票数量升至 32 年以来最高 4. 广义美元投机净空头持仓降至 4 个月以来最低水平 5. 就业数据差于预期没有扭转投资者的通胀上行预期 6. 沪深 300 指数权益风险溢价（ERP）周度更新 7. 中国 10 年期国债远期套利回报周度更新 8. 美元兑日元互换基差和美元融资溢价周度更新 9. 铜金价格比与离岸人民币汇率走势周度更新 10.中国在岸股债总回报相对表现周度更新 风险提示： 原油市场爆发价格战，新兴市场出现系统性金融风险 华创证券 ...

周五（5月23日）纽约尾盘，离岸人民币（CNH）兑美元北京时间04:59报7.1726元，较周四纽约尾盘涨318点，日内整体交投于7.2058-7.1713元 区间，逼近2024年11月8日顶部7.1457元。 ...

离岸人民币早盘继续走强，离岸人民币兑美元升破7.19关口。 ...

离岸人民币对美元直线 拉升逾100点，升破7.2关口。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The onshore RMB against the US dollar opened at 7.2345, an increase of nearly 290 points compared to the closing price on April 30, following a significant rise in the offshore RMB during the holiday period [1] Group 1 - The onshore RMB's opening rate reflects a strong performance, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - The increase of nearly 290 points suggests a notable appreciation in the RMB's value against the US dollar [1] - The movement in the onshore RMB is closely linked to the trends observed in the offshore RMB market during the holiday [1]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) against the US dollar showed a significant appreciation, closing at 7.2011, marking a rise of 119 points from the previous Friday's close, continuing the upward trend from last week [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Currency Performance** - The CNH traded within a range of 7.2199 to 7.1845 during the day [1] - The currency approached a peak of 7.1457, which is expected to be reached on November 8, 2024 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) against the US dollar showed significant appreciation, closing at 7.2103, marking a rise of 686 points from the previous trading day [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Exchange Rate Movement** - The CNH traded within a range of 7.2808 to 7.2091 during the day, surpassing the previous peak of 7.2157 reached on March 12 [1] - The current level is approaching the top of 7.1864 expected on November 11, 2024 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has surpassed the 7.25 mark against the US dollar, experiencing an intraday increase of nearly 300 points [1] Group 1 - The offshore RMB's rise indicates a strengthening of the currency against the US dollar [1] - The movement of the RMB may reflect broader market trends and investor sentiment towards the Chinese economy [1]