证券研究报告 | 2025年07月09日 泸州老窖（000568.SZ） 优于大市 以消费者为中心，数字化赋能供应链，提升竞争壁垒 市场表现：增速预期下修，估值出现折价。2023H2-2025H1 公司股价跑输白 酒板块 21%，预测 PE 下跌 45%，主因内外部周期叠加，公司收入及业绩增速 边际放缓：行业需求承压影响大单品国窖的量价表现，同时公司自身发展进 入阶段性调整。我们认为市场基于短期增速的定价有失偏颇，当前行业弱景 气度背景下公司积极去化渠道包袱，以消费者为中心推进数字化转型，进行 前瞻性产品布局，管理层面的相对优势仍是共识；当前 PE 接近 2013 年初水 平，于经营、于投资层面均有布局机会。 竞争壁垒：管理禀赋为核，全价位产品布局。公司在行业中为管理驱动类， 组织、渠道为核心优势，历史两轮调整通过深度改革实现破局。公司组织机 制市场化、激励充足，庞大且专业化的销售队伍开拓市场；组织力支撑精细 化的渠道管理模式得以落地跑通，因地制宜、强化管控。产品层面"浓香鼻 祖"名酒基因根植，双品牌多品系布局，全价位带均有可贡献增长的大单品。 数字化思辩：科技增密供应链，以消费者为中心提升竞争壁垒。近两年白 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 172 million yuan for 2024, an increase of 11.87% year-on-year, and a net profit of 27.7 million yuan, up 284.55% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 38.67 million yuan, a growth of 6.40% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.44 million yuan, increasing by 294.78% [1] Group 1: Market Expansion and Sales Strategy - The company is actively expanding its market outside Gansu province, with a 91.41% year-on-year increase in revenue from these regions, raising their contribution to total revenue from 14.59% to 24.96% [2] - Direct sales have become a significant revenue contributor, with a year-on-year growth of 75.02%, and a gross margin of 76.54%, exceeding the gross margin of the distribution model by 16.13 percentage points [2] - The company has seen a remarkable increase in non-recurring net profit over three consecutive quarters, with growth rates of 1583.23%, 179.79%, and 1391.46% [2] Group 2: Product Innovation and Quality Control - The company has enhanced its market competitiveness through product innovation and strict quality control measures, leading to multiple awards at international competitions [3][4] - New product development has been a focus, resulting in the launch of 19 new products, including various types of liquor and wine [4] Group 3: Legal and Financial Improvements - The resolution of historical legal issues has significantly improved the company's profitability and financial status, including a settlement of 4.3 million yuan for the Wuxi Meilin case [5] - All historical lawsuits have been resolved since the takeover by Gansu Shengda Group, which has positively impacted the company's financial health [5] - The company plans to continue strengthening brand building and optimizing management systems in response to the complex market environment in 2025 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the benchmark index [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 31.196 billion yuan and a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3.19% and 1.71% respectively. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a decline in revenue and net profit, with year-on-year decreases of 16.86% and 29.86% respectively [3]. - The company adheres to a "dual brand, three product lines, and major products" strategy, with a focus on high-end liquor. The revenue from liquor operations reached 31.053 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 87.62%, showing a slight decline [4]. - The company has committed to a shareholder return plan, ensuring that cash dividends will account for at least 65% of net profit for 2024, 70% for 2025, and 75% for 2026, with a minimum total of 8.5 billion yuan in cash dividends each year [6][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 31.196 billion yuan, with a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan. The expected revenue for 2025 is projected at 31.883 billion yuan, with a net profit of 13.753 billion yuan, indicating a growth rate of 2.2% [9][10]. - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 87.54%, with a slight decline expected in the following years [11]. Revenue Breakdown - The high-end liquor segment generated 27.585 billion yuan in revenue, while other liquor products contributed 3.467 billion yuan. The high-end segment saw a volume increase of 14.39% but a price decrease of 10.15% [4]. - The company’s revenue from traditional and emerging channels was 29.573 billion yuan and 1.479 billion yuan respectively, showing growth in both areas [4]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 6.8 billion yuan for 2024, alongside a previously implemented 2 billion yuan interim dividend, meeting the 65% payout ratio requirement [8]. - The projected dividend yield for 2024 is 4.75%, reflecting the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao has achieved a decade of continuous growth in both revenue and net profit, marking a significant milestone in its financial performance [1][3][7]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Luzhou Laojiao reported a revenue of 31.196 billion yuan, an increase of 3.19% year-on-year, and a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71%, both reaching historical highs [1][2]. - The company's liquor revenue reached 31.053 billion yuan, growing by 3.24%, while other income decreased by 7.97% to 1.436 billion yuan [3]. - The gross profit margin for the overall company was 87.54%, with the gross margin for mid-to-high-end liquor at 91.85% [4]. Product Performance - Mid-to-high-end liquor generated a revenue of 27.585 billion yuan, representing a 2.77% increase and accounting for 88.43% of total revenue [1][3]. - The production of mid-to-high-end liquor increased by 26.18% to 39,441.69 tons, and sales rose by 14.39% to 42,990.65 tons, while inventory decreased by 9.71% to 33,002.59 tons [3]. Investor Returns - Luzhou Laojiao distributed a total cash dividend of 8.758 billion yuan (including tax) in 2024, which is approximately 65% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1][7]. - The company plans to continue rewarding investors, with a proposed cash dividend of 45.92 yuan per 10 shares for the 2024 fiscal year [7]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on high-quality development and is preparing for the upcoming peak consumption season by temporarily halting orders and shipments across its product lines [5][6]. - Luzhou Laojiao aims to enhance channel profitability and stabilize pricing through strategic marketing measures [5][6]. Industry Outlook - The liquor industry is entering a new adjustment cycle, with increasing competition and trends towards younger, lower-alcohol, and healthier products [7][8]. - Luzhou Laojiao's operational goals for 2025 include steady revenue growth and a focus on innovation to seize market opportunities [8].

泸州老窖表示：2024年，白酒行业进入新一轮调整周期，未来一段时期，白酒行业或将加速"分化"，市场竞争将步 入白热化阶段， 行业呈现年轻化、低度化、健康化等发展趋势，只有不断创新的企业，才能抢抓发展机遇。 白酒行业分析师肖竹青对南都湾财社记者表示：虽然整体业绩保持增长，但增速较为缓慢，尤其是2024年第四季度 营收和净利润分别同比下降16.86%和29.86%，反映出公司在该季度面临一定的市场压力。 业绩整体承压，销量增速放缓 财报数据显示，泸州老窖2024年实现营业收入311.96亿元，同比增长3.19%，净利润134.73亿元，同比增长1.71%；基 本每股收益9.18元。公司拟每10股派发现金红利45.92元（含税）。 | | 2024 年 | 2023 年 | 本年比上年增减 | 2022 年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(元) | 31, 196, 248, 208. 33 | 30, 233, 301, 388. 26 | 3. 19% | 25, 123, 563, 271. 62 | | 归属于上市公司股东 | 13, 472, 986, 4 ...