事实上，水井坊所面临的困境，正是整个白酒行业现状的一个缩影。根据中国酒协的数据，当前白酒行 业正承受着前所未有的库存高压，与此同时，消费者的饮酒观念愈发理性，这进一步加剧了市场的分 化。高端白酒市场价格出现松动，中端白酒市场竞争则呈现出白热化态势。在这样的形势下，酒企纷纷 从以往的 "渠道压货" 模式，转向更加注重产品实际销售的 "动销驱动" 模式。臻酿八号作为中端价格带 的主力产品，其市场表现直观地反映出了行业内部的深层矛盾。 然而，水井坊的停售措施能否达到预期效果，目前仍存在诸多不确定性。从短期来看，减少市场投放 量，确实有助于缓解产品价格下行的压力。但需要注意的是，库存只是从渠道转移到了企业，并未真正 被消化。倘若消费端的需求未能同步回暖，那么在停售结束后，水井坊可能将面临更为严峻的去库存压 力。从长期发展的角度来看，白酒行业的复苏，主要取决于消费信心的恢复、厂商利益的重新平衡，以 及产品结构的优化这三大关键变量。在停售期间，水井坊需要加快渠道改革的步伐，通过精细化运营， 提升终端产品的实际销售情况，如此才能将这场价格保卫战，切实转化为推动业绩增长的实际动能。 进入 7 月，上市酒企的停货风潮仍在持续。 ...

Group 1 - The perception of Moutai's price floor is high among consumers, leading them to believe that prices will not drop below certain levels, such as 1500 yuan or 1000 yuan [1][4] - Many consumers purchase Moutai not for consumption but as a status symbol or investment, indicating its luxury brand status [3][5] - The demand for high-end liquor has significantly decreased due to changing consumption scenarios, particularly in business contexts, which has affected the overall market for premium liquor [5][12] Group 2 - The current market environment shows a lack of confidence in the future of high-end liquor, with excess production capacity and reduced consumer demand [6][12] - Liquor manufacturers face two potential strategies: controlling supply to stabilize prices or increasing market supply while lowering prices and quality [8][9] - Historical examples illustrate that many once-premium liquor brands have transitioned to lower-tier products, raising concerns about the long-term value of current high-end offerings [11][12] Group 3 - The recommendation for consumers is to assess their actual need for liquor rather than purchasing for speculative purposes, especially given the current market dynamics [12][13] - If Moutai's price were to drop significantly, it could lead to a shift in its perception as a premium product, impacting its use in high-end business settings [12][13]

Group 1 - The report highlights the deep analysis of Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ), emphasizing a consumer-centric approach and digital empowerment of the supply chain to enhance competitive barriers [9][10] - The company is expected to face a 21% underperformance compared to the liquor sector from H2 2023 to H1 2025, with a projected PE decline of 45% due to internal and external cyclical pressures [9][11] - Luzhou Laojiao is actively reducing channel burdens and advancing digital transformation, which is seen as a strategic advantage in a weak industry environment [9][10] Group 2 - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant demand increase driven by AI applications, with TI expanding production to meet future needs and storage prices continuing to rise [19][21] - The global semiconductor sales in May 2025 reached $58.98 billion, marking a 19.8% year-on-year growth, with China's semiconductor sales at $17.08 billion, up 13% [21][22] - The report recommends focusing on semiconductor manufacturing companies and AI-related enterprises, highlighting the importance of domestic AI development in the semiconductor supply chain [21][27] Group 3 - The medical and biological sector is witnessing a strong performance, with a focus on innovative drug development, particularly in radioactive ligand therapy, which is expected to grow rapidly [29][30] - The report identifies XTR005 and XTR008 as key products in the pipeline, with XTR005 being the first PET diagnostic radioactive ligand approved in China [30][31] - The overall medical sector is projected to continue its upward trend, with a notable increase in clinical data competitiveness for domestic innovative drugs [31]

投资建议：短期压力不改长期增长动能，维持"优于大市"评级。考虑到短期行业需求压力，公司仍以去 库存、促动销为主，下修此前盈利预测，预计2025-2027 年公司营业总收入305.9/308.4/333.3 亿元， 同 比-2.0%/+0.8%/+8.1% （ 前值+1.7%/+5.2%/+6.4% ） ； 预计归母净利润130.3/132.0/145.4 亿元， 同 比-3.3%/+1.2%/+10.1% （ 前值+0.5%/+4.5%/+7.1%），对应2025/2026 年12.9/12.7 倍P/E。考虑到公司早 于行业主动调整，多价位产品布局，以数字化工具培育消费者，看好经营久期；同时分红指引积极，预 测2025 年股息率5.4%，支撑估值；给予合理估值152.4-166.4 元，中值对应现价40%上行空间，维持"优 于大市"评级。 风险提示：经济及需求复苏不及预期；产业政策调整影响消费场景及需求；全国化推进较慢；食品安全 问题等。 数字化思辩：科技增密供应链，以消费者为中心提升竞争壁垒。近两年白酒行业渠道加速转型，C 端话 语权提升，从线上渠道GMV 高速增长到即时零售高势能切入，倒逼酒企多元化、扁 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月09日 泸州老窖（000568.SZ） 优于大市 以消费者为中心，数字化赋能供应链，提升竞争壁垒 市场表现：增速预期下修，估值出现折价。2023H2-2025H1 公司股价跑输白 酒板块 21%，预测 PE 下跌 45%，主因内外部周期叠加，公司收入及业绩增速 边际放缓：行业需求承压影响大单品国窖的量价表现，同时公司自身发展进 入阶段性调整。我们认为市场基于短期增速的定价有失偏颇，当前行业弱景 气度背景下公司积极去化渠道包袱，以消费者为中心推进数字化转型，进行 前瞻性产品布局，管理层面的相对优势仍是共识；当前 PE 接近 2013 年初水 平，于经营、于投资层面均有布局机会。 竞争壁垒：管理禀赋为核，全价位产品布局。公司在行业中为管理驱动类， 组织、渠道为核心优势，历史两轮调整通过深度改革实现破局。公司组织机 制市场化、激励充足，庞大且专业化的销售队伍开拓市场；组织力支撑精细 化的渠道管理模式得以落地跑通，因地制宜、强化管控。产品层面"浓香鼻 祖"名酒基因根植，双品牌多品系布局，全价位带均有可贡献增长的大单品。 数字化思辩：科技增密供应链，以消费者为中心提升竞争壁垒。近两年白 ...

Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a deep adjustment and transformation in the consumer market, with a decline in production among large-scale enterprises in 2024, yet leading companies are still seeing growth in revenue and profit, indicating an increase in industry concentration [1] - Luzhou Laojiao is leveraging its dual-brand matrix of "Guojiao" (over 20 billion) and "Luzhou Laojiao" (over 10 billion) to navigate market fluctuations [1] - The company plans to enhance shareholder returns by increasing dividend rates over the next 5-10 years, while focusing on strategies such as "lower alcohol content, youth-oriented, scenario-based, and digitalization" [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, Luzhou Laojiao reported revenue of 31.196 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, and a net profit of 13.473 billion, up 1.71% year-on-year [1] - The "Guojiao" brand exceeded 20 billion, while "Luzhou Laojiao" surpassed 10 billion, supported by a strategy of "dual brands, three product lines, and major single products" [1] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on the "lower alcohol content" innovation as a strategic priority, with plans to launch a 28-degree product and consider even lower alcohol content options [1] - The 38-degree Guojiao 1573 has gained market acceptance, with sales accounting for approximately 50% and nearing 10 billion in scale [1] - Luzhou Laojiao is expanding into lower-tier markets and has doubled its online network system in the first four months, with expectations to further expand market reach over the next five years [1] Competitive Advantage - The company emphasizes a strategy of "opening bottles as king," aiming to deepen its presence in grassroots markets and optimize its channel system to enhance its ability to respond to market changes [1] - Luzhou Laojiao is committed to a "culture + technology" strategy, focusing on innovation and quality to write a new chapter in the development of the liquor industry [1]

Market Overview - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a new adjustment cycle, transitioning from "volume competition" to "value creation" [1] - In 2024, the total production of large-scale enterprises was 4.145 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, with a 7.2% decline in Q1 [1] - Despite the production decline, industry revenue and profit grew by 5.3% and 7.8% respectively in 2024, indicating a shift towards "quality improvement" and "brand influence" [1] Industry Trends - The concentration of the industry has increased, with the top six liquor companies accounting for 86% of total industry profits in 2024, up over 30 percentage points from ten years ago [1] - The brand "Guojiao 1573" is now one of the top three high-end liquor brands in China, with a leading national market presence [1][2] Consumer Behavior - Consumer preferences are shifting from "quantity satisfaction" to "quality pursuit," with younger demographics (post-85s and post-90s) favoring personalized and lower-alcohol products [3] - Consumption scenarios are diversifying, with stable growth in traditional events and emerging trends in cultural experiences and technology integration [3][4] Sales and Marketing Strategies - Instant retail transactions for liquor grew over 65% year-on-year in the first half of the year, reflecting a shift towards immediate consumption [4] - The company is enhancing its marketing focus from "channel pressure" to "precise reach" and "user operation" [4] Company Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 31.196 billion RMB in 2024, a 482.73% increase from 2014, with a compound annual growth rate of 19.27% [6] - Net profit reached 13.473 billion RMB in 2024, a 1431.18% increase from 2014, with a compound annual growth rate of 31.37% [6] Strategic Advantages - The company has implemented a comprehensive strategy since the 13th Five-Year Plan, focusing on governance, market share, brand culture, quality, and talent [5] - The company has established a quality traceability system across the entire production chain, enhancing product quality and efficiency [8] Innovation and Development - The company is actively developing lower-alcohol products, with a focus on 38-degree and 28-degree variants, responding to market demand [11] - The company has built an ecological park with an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons of high-quality solid-state liquor [8] Social Responsibility - From 2015 to 2024, the company invested approximately 274 million RMB in public welfare, receiving multiple awards for its contributions [10] - The cumulative cash dividends since the company's listing reached 52.059 billion RMB, with a dividend rate of 61.58%, ranking among the top in A-share companies [10]

6月26日，郎酒股份河南市场推介座谈会在郑州举行。本次活动汇聚了郎酒股份核心管理团队、河南省 糖酒食品流通协会领导、河南区域核心经销商及行业媒体代表，共商郎酒发展大计，深化厂商合作。 河南省糖酒食品流通协会会长彭希安，副会长兼秘书长陈全战应邀出席会议。彭希安在致辞时对郎酒在 河南市场的发展给予肯定，表示将积极号召和组织会员企业助力郎酒在河南的发展。河南品酒轩酒业有 限公司董事长范长永、郑州华储酒业有限公司董事长李海涛、河南省微策企业管理咨询有限公司万发达 作为郎酒各事业部在豫核心经销商代表，分享了与郎酒同行的成功经验与市场洞察，表达了对未来合作 的坚定信心。 郎酒销售公司河南区域总经理李静在推介会开场致辞中，详细介绍了郎酒股份的整体发展战略。她强 调，面对行业新周期，郎酒始终遵循公司董事长汪俊林提出的"强壮、稳健、增长"基调，以"极致三 品，品质第一"为根本，坚持"客户第一，唯客是尊"理念，致力于"扶好商、树大商、共筑厂商命运共同 体"，携手合作伙伴将郎酒品牌做强、做长、做大。 本次推介会集中展示了郎酒股份多品类、多品牌协同发展的强劲势头与深耕河南市场的决心，为厂商携 手应对行业挑战、共享发展机遇搭建了坚实桥 ...

上 市 公 司 食品饮料 2025 年 06 月 25 日 泸州老窖 (000568) ——目标稳健，经营务实 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 06 月 25 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 113.70 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 164.67/98.92 | | 市净率 | 3.3 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 5.94 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 167,065 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,455.97/10,393.72 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 34.08 | | 资产负债率% | 24.67 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 1,472/1,469 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 06-25 07-25 08-25 09-25 10-25 11-25 12-25 01-25 02-25 03-25 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the continuous growth of the brand value of Sichuan Langjiu Co., Ltd., which reached 162.065 billion RMB, ranking 56th in the "World Brand Conference and China’s 500 Most Valuable Brands" [1][3] - Langjiu's brand value has increased significantly from 4.1 billion RMB to over 162 billion RMB over 20 years, showcasing its strong market support and strategic product development [3][6] Group 1: Brand Value Assessment - The World Brand Laboratory (WBL) has recognized Langjiu's brand value as a result of its comprehensive strength and market enthusiasm, supported by its "Seven Strategic Products" [3][4] - The brand value assessment methodology incorporates financial data, brand strength, and consumer behavior analysis, establishing WBL as a leading authority in brand valuation [4][6] Group 2: Strategic Product Development - Langjiu's brand value is underpinned by its seven strategic products: Hongyun Lang, Qinghua Lang, Honghua Lang, Langpai Heimate, Langpai Tequ T8, Shunpin Lang, and Xiaolangjiu, which cater to various market segments [9][11] - The products range from ultra-high-end to mass-market offerings, ensuring comprehensive market coverage and consumer resonance [13] Group 3: Production and Research Capabilities - Langjiu has established a world-class distillery covering 10 square kilometers in the core production area, enhancing its production capacity and quality [6][8] - The company has invested in advanced research facilities and a technical team of over 200 members to innovate and improve its production processes [8][9] Group 4: Cultural and Market Engagement - Langjiu is actively expanding its cultural expression and global presence, enhancing brand value through emotional resonance and storytelling [8][13] - The company employs a multi-faceted marketing strategy that includes tasting events and collaborations with local culinary experts to deepen consumer engagement [11][13]