编者荐语： 汹涌挤向接驳车的人潮，和被裹挟着走的推背感，让刻意避开"十一"出游高峰，希冀在"北疆明珠"喀纳斯畅 游仙境的苏苏，瞬间梦回北京的地铁站台。 "一生总要去一次新疆"爆红出圈，带来了泼天的流量，也制造了混乱。苏苏结束8年北漂，回新疆老家自驾 游时发现，记忆里的熟悉景点，到处是坑： 很多景区的非人性化设置是否应该反思一下？ 以下文章来源于表外表里 ，作者洞见数据研究院 表外表里 . 洞见数据研究院 喀纳斯的接驳车路线宛若迷宫，游客扎堆找车、坐车，堵得水泄不通；赛里木湖冰雹天都不发预警通知， 躲过去全靠命硬。 怨气累积下，苏苏将5A景区全"踢出"了行程列表，只留下还没被喧嚣侵蚀的小众之地。 苏苏的心路历程，其实是旅游市场风向变迁的一个缩影。 2018年，西安聘任张一鸣为科技顾问，初衷是依托抖音为名胜古迹引流。但后来的故事是，大唐不夜城力 压兵马俑、华清池等5A景区，成为最靓的崽。 2023年以来，轮番登上旅游圈C位的是：此前和旅游业不搭边的淄博；平平无奇的工业城市哈尔滨；一碗麻 辣烫带火的天水。 也就是说，旅游市场已经从几乎只有传统景区的独舞，转向"不问出处"的百花齐放。 这在数据上，也有印证。可以看到， ...

以下文章来源于表外表里 ，作者洞见数据研究院 表外表里 . 洞见数据研究院 5A景区，怎么就不香了。 文 ｜ 刘钰民 编辑 ｜ 付晓玲 来源｜ 表里表外（ID：excel-ers） 封面来源 ｜ unsplash 汹涌挤向接驳车的人潮，和被裹挟着走的推背感，让刻意避开"十一"出游高峰，希冀在"北疆明珠"喀纳斯畅游仙境的苏苏，瞬间梦回北京的地铁站台。 "一生总要去一次新疆"爆红出圈，带来了泼天的流量，也制造了混乱。苏苏结束8年北漂，回新疆老家自驾游时发现，记忆里的熟悉景点，到处是坑： 喀纳斯的接驳车路线宛若迷宫，游客扎堆找车、坐车，堵得水泄不通；赛里木湖冰雹天都不发预警通知，躲过去全靠命硬。 怨气累积下，苏苏将5A景区全"踢出"了行程列表，只留下还没被喧嚣侵蚀的小众之地。 苏苏的心路历程，其实是旅游市场风向变迁的一个缩影。 2018年，西安聘任张一鸣为科技顾问，初衷是依托抖音为名胜古迹引流。但后来的故事是，大唐不夜城力压兵马俑、华清池等5A景区，成为最靓的崽。 2023年以来，轮番登上旅游圈C位的是：此前和旅游业不搭边的淄博；平平无奇的工业城市哈尔滨；一碗麻辣烫带火的天水。 也就是说， 旅游市场已经从几乎只有传 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Jiuhua Tourism (603199) [1] Core Views - Jiuhua Tourism has a stable flow in its main tourism business, benefiting from the scarcity of scenic resources and strong anti-cyclical characteristics [7] - The company has a clear project reserve and a quantifiable long-term growth momentum [8] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 18% in 2025, 15% in 2026, and 10% in 2027, with net profit growth of 23%, 21%, and 17% respectively [10] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Jiuhua Tourism is based on the core scenic area of Jiuhua Mountain, a national 5A-level Buddhist site, forming a comprehensive tourism service system including cable cars, hotels, passenger transport, and travel agencies [9][12] - The company has a stable and diverse revenue structure, with significant visitor loyalty due to the cultural heritage of Jiuhua Mountain [17] Financial Performance - The core profit source, the cable car business, is expected to maintain a gross margin above 85% from 2023 to 2024, contributing approximately 38.33% of the company's revenue in 2024 [9] - The hotel business, while currently weaker with a gross margin of 16% in 2023, is expected to improve due to location advantages and operational efficiency [9] - Revenue has shown strong recovery post-pandemic, with a 118% year-on-year increase in 2023 and a 25% increase compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019 [25] Growth Drivers - The opening of the Chihuang High-speed Railway in April 2024 is expected to significantly enhance accessibility to Jiuhua Mountain, boosting overall attractiveness [9] - The Lion Peak cable car project is anticipated to start operations in 2026, potentially contributing an average annual revenue of 1.11 billion yuan and a net profit of 0.5 billion yuan over the next 15 years [60][63] Investment Projections - The company plans to raise up to 500 million yuan through a private placement to fund key projects, including the Lion Peak cable car and hotel renovations [75] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise to 1.53 yuan in 2025 and 1.94 yuan in 2026, reflecting a significant improvement in profitability [75]

Key Insights - The report highlights the resilience of the Chinese market amidst global uncertainties, emphasizing the advantages of domestic circulation and the potential for growth in the equity market [6][9][12] - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports, estimating a negative effect of approximately 8-10 percentage points on export growth and a 1.5-2.0 percentage point impact on GDP [5][21] - The report outlines the government's commitment to boosting domestic consumption through various policies, including a significant increase in special bonds for consumer subsidies [25][28] Macro Analysis - The U.S. CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year in March, while China's CPI is expected to face downward pressure, with a forecasted decline of around -0.4% in April [1][21] - The report anticipates that the Chinese government will implement a fiscal stimulus of 1.5-2 trillion yuan to support domestic demand and consumption [21][22] - The report notes that the core CPI has shown signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5% in March, indicating potential stabilization in consumer prices [19][22] Banking Sector - The report emphasizes the role of central financial institutions, such as the Central Huijin Investment, in stabilizing market expectations by increasing their holdings in ETFs [9][10] - It highlights the expected continuation of a low-interest-rate environment, which enhances the attractiveness of bank dividends and low volatility [13][12] - The report suggests that the banking sector is poised for a valuation reset, driven by increased long-term capital inflows and improved market efficiency [12][13] Consumer Sector - The report discusses the expansion of the "immediate refund" tax policy for foreign tourists, which is expected to stimulate domestic consumption and benefit high-quality domestic products [25][26][28] - It notes that the government's focus on boosting consumption is reflected in various initiatives aimed at enhancing consumer spending capabilities [25][28] - The report anticipates that the combination of the "immediate refund" policy and relaxed entry visa regulations will significantly contribute to the growth of inbound tourism consumption [26][28] Company-Specific Insights - Gu Ming (古茗) is identified as a leading brand in the Chinese tea beverage market, with a strong focus on quality and a robust expansion strategy [34][36] - The company has maintained a high average profit margin for franchisees, indicating strong brand recognition and operational efficiency [35][36] - The report highlights the company's commitment to supply chain management and R&D investment, positioning it well for future growth in the competitive market [35][36] Industry Trends - Tai Chi Co., Ltd. (太极股份) is noted for its strategic focus on AI and domestic innovation, with expectations for performance improvement in the latter half of the year [38][39] - The company has reported a decline in revenue and profit but is expected to benefit from the acceleration of domestic innovation initiatives [38][41] - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating advanced technologies to enhance service capabilities and drive future growth [40][41]