Core Viewpoint - The tourism market is shifting from traditional scenic spots to lesser-known destinations, driven by changing consumer preferences and dissatisfaction with the commercialization of popular attractions [8][9][26]. Group 1: Changes in Tourism Preferences - The popularity of destinations like Xinjiang has surged, but the influx of tourists has led to overcrowding and logistical issues, prompting some travelers to seek out less commercialized locations [6][8]. - Data indicates a 200% increase in interest for "less crowded" travel options, with small towns becoming popular destinations, while the brand index of the top 100 5A scenic spots has halved over the past four years [9][11]. Group 2: Issues with 5A Scenic Spots - Visitors often face excessive fees at 5A scenic spots, where additional charges for activities and amenities can lead to a total cost significantly higher than the initial ticket price [12][15]. - The traditional model of tourism, where visitors follow a fixed itinerary, is being challenged as tourists seek more authentic experiences and value for money [15][18]. Group 3: Competition from Alternative Destinations - The rise of lesser-known destinations is attributed to their unique offerings and the perception that they provide better value compared to overcrowded 5A scenic spots [27][29]. - The search volume for "hidden gem" locations has increased by 300%, while visitor growth at major attractions has stagnated, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [29][30]. Group 4: Quality and Experience Concerns - Many 5A scenic spots are criticized for their lack of originality and increasing commercialization, leading to a decline in visitor satisfaction and a negative reputation [26][35]. - The experience at these attractions is often marred by overcrowding and a focus on profit over quality, resulting in a loss of appeal to younger travelers who prefer more personalized and unique experiences [26][35].

Core Insights - The tourism market is shifting from traditional scenic spots to a more diverse range of destinations, with a notable increase in interest for lesser-known locations [10][13]. - The popularity of 5A scenic spots has declined significantly, with their brand index halving over the past four years, while interest in smaller towns has surged [13][26]. - The experience at many 5A scenic spots has deteriorated, with rising costs and declining quality leading to negative perceptions among tourists [27][39]. Group 1 - The influx of tourists to Xinjiang has led to overcrowding and logistical challenges, prompting some travelers to avoid popular 5A scenic spots altogether [8][9]. - The rise of alternative destinations, such as industrial cities and lesser-known towns, reflects a broader trend in the tourism industry where diverse experiences are becoming more valued [12][13]. - Data indicates a 200% increase in searches for less crowded travel options, highlighting a shift in consumer preferences [13][46]. Group 2 - The financial performance of traditional scenic spots is under pressure, with revenue growth not keeping pace with rising operational costs [23][24]. - The introduction of policies to lower ticket prices for key national scenic spots has further strained their profitability [22]. - Despite the challenges, some 5A scenic spots are investing heavily in infrastructure and attractions to attract visitors, indicating a competitive response to changing market dynamics [26][50]. Group 3 - The commercialization of 5A scenic spots has led to a homogenization of experiences, with many locations offering similar attractions and dining options, resulting in visitor fatigue [26][39]. - Tourists are increasingly seeking authentic experiences, such as local cuisine and cultural immersion, rather than traditional sightseeing [56][61]. - The rise of music festivals and other alternative entertainment options has drawn younger audiences away from traditional scenic spots, indicating a shift in leisure preferences [60][61].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Jiuhua Tourism (603199) [1] Core Views - Jiuhua Tourism has a stable flow in its main tourism business, benefiting from the scarcity of scenic resources and strong anti-cyclical characteristics [7] - The company has a clear project reserve and a quantifiable long-term growth momentum [8] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 18% in 2025, 15% in 2026, and 10% in 2027, with net profit growth of 23%, 21%, and 17% respectively [10] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Jiuhua Tourism is based on the core scenic area of Jiuhua Mountain, a national 5A-level Buddhist site, forming a comprehensive tourism service system including cable cars, hotels, passenger transport, and travel agencies [9][12] - The company has a stable and diverse revenue structure, with significant visitor loyalty due to the cultural heritage of Jiuhua Mountain [17] Financial Performance - The core profit source, the cable car business, is expected to maintain a gross margin above 85% from 2023 to 2024, contributing approximately 38.33% of the company's revenue in 2024 [9] - The hotel business, while currently weaker with a gross margin of 16% in 2023, is expected to improve due to location advantages and operational efficiency [9] - Revenue has shown strong recovery post-pandemic, with a 118% year-on-year increase in 2023 and a 25% increase compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019 [25] Growth Drivers - The opening of the Chihuang High-speed Railway in April 2024 is expected to significantly enhance accessibility to Jiuhua Mountain, boosting overall attractiveness [9] - The Lion Peak cable car project is anticipated to start operations in 2026, potentially contributing an average annual revenue of 1.11 billion yuan and a net profit of 0.5 billion yuan over the next 15 years [60][63] Investment Projections - The company plans to raise up to 500 million yuan through a private placement to fund key projects, including the Lion Peak cable car and hotel renovations [75] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise to 1.53 yuan in 2025 and 1.94 yuan in 2026, reflecting a significant improvement in profitability [75]

Key Insights - The report highlights the resilience of the Chinese market amidst global uncertainties, emphasizing the advantages of domestic circulation and the potential for growth in the equity market [6][9][12] - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports, estimating a negative effect of approximately 8-10 percentage points on export growth and a 1.5-2.0 percentage point impact on GDP [5][21] - The report outlines the government's commitment to boosting domestic consumption through various policies, including a significant increase in special bonds for consumer subsidies [25][28] Macro Analysis - The U.S. CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year in March, while China's CPI is expected to face downward pressure, with a forecasted decline of around -0.4% in April [1][21] - The report anticipates that the Chinese government will implement a fiscal stimulus of 1.5-2 trillion yuan to support domestic demand and consumption [21][22] - The report notes that the core CPI has shown signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5% in March, indicating potential stabilization in consumer prices [19][22] Banking Sector - The report emphasizes the role of central financial institutions, such as the Central Huijin Investment, in stabilizing market expectations by increasing their holdings in ETFs [9][10] - It highlights the expected continuation of a low-interest-rate environment, which enhances the attractiveness of bank dividends and low volatility [13][12] - The report suggests that the banking sector is poised for a valuation reset, driven by increased long-term capital inflows and improved market efficiency [12][13] Consumer Sector - The report discusses the expansion of the "immediate refund" tax policy for foreign tourists, which is expected to stimulate domestic consumption and benefit high-quality domestic products [25][26][28] - It notes that the government's focus on boosting consumption is reflected in various initiatives aimed at enhancing consumer spending capabilities [25][28] - The report anticipates that the combination of the "immediate refund" policy and relaxed entry visa regulations will significantly contribute to the growth of inbound tourism consumption [26][28] Company-Specific Insights - Gu Ming (古茗) is identified as a leading brand in the Chinese tea beverage market, with a strong focus on quality and a robust expansion strategy [34][36] - The company has maintained a high average profit margin for franchisees, indicating strong brand recognition and operational efficiency [35][36] - The report highlights the company's commitment to supply chain management and R&D investment, positioning it well for future growth in the competitive market [35][36] Industry Trends - Tai Chi Co., Ltd. (太极股份) is noted for its strategic focus on AI and domestic innovation, with expectations for performance improvement in the latter half of the year [38][39] - The company has reported a decline in revenue and profit but is expected to benefit from the acceleration of domestic innovation initiatives [38][41] - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating advanced technologies to enhance service capabilities and drive future growth [40][41]