2025年上半年，我国新能源重卡累计销售近8万辆，同比大涨186%。根据第一商用车网的观 察，截止到2025年6月，新能源重卡市场同比连增势头已实现"29连涨"。值得一提的是，自 2024年开始，新能源重卡呈现翻倍增长的月份达到16次。因此而言，目前新能源重卡快速发 展的势头是确定且不可逆，甚至是超出预期的。 形势真的就是一片大好吗？恐怕只有身处其中才知道。哪怕是占到新能源重卡9成以上比例的 纯电动重卡，当前也面临诸多发展中的阻碍，其中一个突出的问题，就是如何啃下中长途干线 这块"硬骨头"？ 近日，由车百智库研究院与车百链智主办的重卡超充快换协同行动启动会暨纯电重卡补能设施 建设高端研讨会在天津举行，交通运输部公路研究院、中国汽车技术研究中心、中国电力企业 联合会等权威机构代表，以及中国重汽、徐工汽车、三一重卡、陕重汽、福田戴姆勒、深向 DEEPWAY、广汽领航、质子汽车、北奔重卡、宁德时代、京能新能源、启源芯动力、亿纬锂 能、国轩高科、奥动新能源等40余家相关企业代表参与讨论并谏言。这场会议的举行，对于 纯电动重卡向"中长途干线"的突破意义重大。 充电重卡与换电重卡是互补，而非替代 自2021年开始，我国新 ...

Core Insights - The commercial vehicle sector is becoming a key battleground for carbon reduction in the transportation industry, with commercial vehicles contributing over 55% of road traffic carbon emissions despite only accounting for 12% of total vehicle ownership [2] - Long-distance freight scenarios, which represent less than 10% of commercial vehicle ownership, account for approximately 50% of carbon emissions, highlighting the critical importance of this segment in the carbon reduction effort [2] Group 1: Challenges in Long-Distance Transportation - Long-distance transportation, primarily dominated by heavy-duty trucks, faces unique challenges due to long distances, heavy loads, and high efficiency requirements, making it a difficult area for the application of new energy technologies [3][4] - The penetration rate of new energy heavy-duty trucks has increased from 2% in 2021 to 14% in 2024, but their application in long-distance scenarios remains nearly zero, indicating a significant gap in market penetration [3] Group 2: Infrastructure and Technology Constraints - The lack of charging infrastructure is a key constraint for the deployment of electric and hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks in long-distance scenarios, with insufficient high-power charging stations and a need for significant upgrades to the power grid [5] - Hydrogen refueling infrastructure is also lacking, with a significant price difference between subsidized and market hydrogen prices, which undermines the economic viability of hydrogen fuel cell trucks [5][6] Group 3: Policy and Technological Development - There is an urgent need for enhanced policy design at the national level to support the large-scale application of electric and hydrogen fuel cell trucks, including the planning of charging and refueling stations along major freight corridors [8] - The industry should focus on core technological innovations, such as solid-state batteries and high-power fuel cell systems, to reduce vehicle acquisition costs and improve the performance of new energy heavy-duty trucks [9][10] Group 4: Future Outlook - The current landscape indicates that new energy heavy-duty trucks will face dual challenges of technology maturity and infrastructure compatibility for a considerable time, necessitating a multi-technology and multi-energy approach [11] - By 2035, traditional internal combustion engine trucks will still dominate, but advancements in battery energy density and charging efficiency will enable a rapid development of electric and fuel cell trucks, leading to differentiated competition based on energy endowment and cost advantages [11]

Core Viewpoint - The transition to new energy heavy trucks is progressing rapidly, with a clear and irreversible trend towards hybrid models as a crucial component for long-distance transportation, complementing the existing electric models [1][2][11]. Summary by Sections New Energy Heavy Truck Penetration - In 2024, the cumulative sales of new energy heavy trucks are expected to reach 84,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 134%, with a penetration rate of 14%, up by 8 percentage points [2]. - The current market for new energy heavy trucks is dominated by pure electric models, which account for 91.3% of the total in 2024 [2]. - The lifecycle cost advantage of pure electric heavy trucks over traditional diesel models is projected to be between 500,000 to 1,000,000 yuan, significantly up from less than 200,000 yuan in 2022 [2]. Hybrid Heavy Trucks as a Solution - The hybrid heavy truck market is expected to see penetration rates of 1%, 5%, and 10% in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a potential market share of 30% by 2030 [1][20]. - Hybrid heavy trucks are particularly suitable for high-load engineering vehicles and long-distance transportation in hilly and mountainous areas, which currently account for over 40% of heavy truck sales [20][24]. - The economic performance of hybrid heavy trucks is expected to surpass that of diesel trucks, with a lifecycle cost reduction of approximately 350,000 yuan compared to diesel models [11][20]. Technological Development and Market Dynamics - The hybrid technology for heavy trucks is expected to replicate the successful penetration of hybrid passenger vehicles, with significant growth anticipated in the coming years [7][8]. - Major manufacturers, including traditional heavy truck companies and new entrants, are actively developing hybrid models, indicating a competitive landscape that could accelerate market adoption [18][24]. - The introduction of stringent fuel consumption standards and government policies supporting the transition to new energy vehicles will further drive the adoption of hybrid heavy trucks [11][20]. Future Outlook - By 2030, the expected market share for various power types in heavy trucks is projected to be 15% for diesel, 15% for natural gas, 30% for hybrid, 5% for hydrogen fuel cells, and 5% for methanol [20]. - The hybrid heavy truck segment is anticipated to become a key solution for the new energy transition in the heavy truck market, with significant commercial potential in the next 3-5 years [24].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid growth and potential of the new energy heavy truck (NEHT) industry, highlighting its technological advancements, market dynamics, and supportive government policies that are driving the transition towards greener transportation solutions [3][4][7]. Industry Definition - New energy heavy trucks are defined as heavy-duty trucks powered by new energy technologies, including pure electric, fuel cell, and hybrid models, which contribute to reduced carbon emissions and environmental pollution [3]. - The main technological routes for NEHT include Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV), Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV), and Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV/PHEV) [3]. Market Performance - In the first ten months of 2024, NEHT sales reached 57,074 units, with a market penetration rate of 7.6%, representing a year-on-year growth of over 140%. The total sales for the year are expected to exceed 70,000 units, with a penetration rate projected to surpass 8% [4]. Industry Chain - The NEHT industry chain consists of upstream key component suppliers, midstream vehicle manufacturers, and downstream application and operation sectors, all of which collaborate to promote the industry's scale and marketization [4][6]. - Upstream components include power batteries, fuel cell systems, motors, and control systems, with power batteries being the most significant cost component for pure electric trucks [5]. - Major vehicle manufacturers include BYD, SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle, and others, which are developing various NEHT models based on market demand and policy guidance [5]. Infrastructure and Applications - The promotion of NEHTs relies heavily on the development of charging and hydrogen refueling infrastructure, with companies like State Grid and Sinopec actively investing in this area [6]. - Logistics companies such as SF Express and JD Logistics are adopting NEHTs to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs [6]. Government Policies - In 2024, various government initiatives were launched to support the NEHT industry, including road rights prioritization, financial subsidies, and toll fee discounts for new energy trucks [7]. - The Ministry of Transport and other departments have issued plans to accelerate the replacement of older diesel trucks with new energy models, offering subsidies of up to 140,000 RMB for purchasing NEHTs [7]. Financing Trends - The number of financing events related to NEHTs peaked in 2022 but has since declined, indicating a cautious investment environment influenced by market demand and technological advancements [7][13]. Key Companies - Haipote Technology focuses on hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicle solutions and has established a comprehensive ecosystem for hydrogen fuel cell vehicle development [8]. - DeepWay is dedicated to applying autonomous driving technology in heavy trucks, with significant funding rounds completed to support its innovations [17]. Recent Developments - In March 2025, Didi Delivery partnered with remote and Weiyou Technology to enhance operational efficiency for freight drivers [21]. - CATL is collaborating with Jinmao Smart Transportation to upgrade the NEHT refueling system [22]. - The first batch of 200kW hydrogen fuel cell heavy trucks was launched in China, marking a significant step in commercializing high-power hydrogen fuel cell trucks [22][23].