研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 021-60828513 shicheng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3046665 投资咨询号：Z0014806 封帆 陈思捷 师橙 021-60827969 fengfan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03139777 投资咨询号：Z0021579 联系人 蔺一杭 021-60827969 linyihang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03149704 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 期货研究报告|有色专题报告 2026-03-03 1 月汽车出口高速增长，汽车铝消费仍预期乐观 报告摘要 1、2025 年国内汽车消费量为 2597 万辆，2024 年境内汽车消费量为 2592 万辆，2025 年汽车内销仅仅同比增加了 6 万辆，表明 2025 年汽车产量如此向好更多源于出口市场 的贡献。 2、新能源汽车发展带来的置换需求以及补贴政策影响对国内消费的拉动作用在 2023- 2024 年集中体现，推算这两年内需消费增速为 7.5%和 4.2%，到了 2025 年已经下滑至 1.2%。 3、采取 15w 新能源车测算，购置税相较 2025 年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market is expected to see a slight year-on-year increase in January due to the release of pent-up demand from first-time buyers, despite uncertainties in the terminal market caused by the reduction of purchase tax subsidies and the gradual implementation of trade-in subsidies across provinces [1] Group 1: Market Performance - January is projected to be the last complete sales month before the late Spring Festival, with more working days compared to the same period last year [1] - The retail market is expected to reach 1.8 million units in January, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 20.4% but a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1] Group 2: Sales Trends - The automotive market started weakly in early January, with an average daily retail of 30,000 units, showing declines both year-on-year and month-on-month [1] - The second week saw a slight recovery in terminal heat, with average daily retail increasing to 50,000 units, although still down year-on-year and month-on-month [1] - By the third week, as trade-in subsidies began to be implemented, market heat slowly picked up, with expected daily retail reaching 57,000 units [1] - In the fourth week, with the implementation of subsidy policies and increased first-time buyer demand, daily retail is expected to surge to 120,000 units [1]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "New National Subsidy" has intensified promotional activities in the domestic automotive market, leading to significant price reductions among various car manufacturers, particularly BMW, which has initiated official price cuts across its model range [2][3]. Group 1: Price Reductions and Market Dynamics - BMW announced official price cuts for 31 models, with 24 models seeing reductions exceeding 10% and 5 models over 20%, including a notable drop of over 15% for the i7 M70L [2]. - The average price of discounted new energy vehicles in December 2025 was reported at 136,000 yuan, with an average reduction of 20,000 yuan, marking a 14.7% decrease [2]. - The average price of discounted new energy vehicles for the entire year of 2025 was 195,000 yuan, with an average reduction of 21,000 yuan, reflecting an 11% decrease, the highest in nearly three years [2]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape and Challenges - BMW's global vehicle deliveries in 2025 reached 2.465 million units, a slight increase of 0.5%, while deliveries in China fell by 12.5%, marking the second consecutive year of double-digit decline [3]. - The competitive landscape is shifting as new models from domestic brands like Hongmeng Zhixing, NIO, and Li Auto challenge traditional German luxury brands, making it difficult for them to maintain their pricing and market share [3]. - The price cuts by BMW are seen as a symbolic move, indicating that the price ceiling for high-end brands in China is evolving, with the threshold now between 200,000 and 250,000 yuan [3]. Group 3: Policy Changes and Consumer Incentives - The new vehicle scrappage subsidy policy has been adjusted to allow for a broader registration time frame and more precise subsidy calculations based on new vehicle prices, prompting rapid promotional responses from automakers [3][4]. - Deep Blue Automotive introduced a new purchasing policy that includes various subsidies and financial incentives, aiming to lower the purchase threshold and enhance consumer experience [4]. - In 2025, over 11.5 million vehicles were replaced through trade-in programs, with nearly 60% being new energy vehicles, contributing to a retail market share exceeding 50% for new energy passenger cars for nine consecutive months [4]. Group 4: Industry Profitability and Future Outlook - The automotive industry faced significant profitability challenges in 2025, with an average profit margin of approximately 4.4%, well below the 6% average for downstream industrial enterprises [6]. - The report from Roland Berger suggests that the industry may see a recovery in profit margins by the third quarter of 2026 as competition stabilizes and companies optimize cost control [6][7]. - The future competitive landscape is expected to shift towards capital strength and cash flow management, with a focus on regional competitiveness and partnerships with local suppliers [7][8].

Group 1 - The new subsidy policy for the automotive sector has been released, with the most beneficial price range being 150,000 to 200,000 yuan [1][14] - The policy is divided into two categories: scrapping and replacement, with different subsidy rates for purchasing new energy and fuel vehicles [2][15] - For scrapping, the subsidy for new energy vehicles is 12% with a maximum of 20,000 yuan, while for fuel vehicles, it is 10% with a maximum of 15,000 yuan [2][15] Group 2 - The replacement subsidy for new energy vehicles is 8% with a maximum of 15,000 yuan, and for fuel vehicles, it is 6% with a maximum of 13,000 yuan [5][17] - The optimal price range to maximize subsidies is between 150,000 and 220,000 yuan, regardless of whether the vehicle is scrapped or replaced [7][20] - The 2026 policy differs from the 2025 policy in that subsidies are now based on a percentage of the new vehicle price rather than a fixed amount, encouraging purchases of mid to high-end vehicles [8][21] Group 3 - The overall subsidy amount may decrease, but the structural change in the price range will lead to higher profit margins for manufacturers, promoting high-quality development [10][23] - Companies focusing on the 150,000 to 200,000 yuan price range, such as BYD, Geely, Changan, and Great Wall, as well as new players like Xpeng, Li Auto, and NIO, are expected to benefit [10][23] - The sales performance of new energy vehicle brands in 2025 shows that Leap Motor is on track to meet its target of 500,000 units, while others like Xpeng and Li Auto are around 400,000 units [11][24] Group 4 - The new subsidy policy is expected to have a significant impact on the automotive industry, with a focus on the 150,000 to 200,000 yuan price range being the most advantageous [9][22] - The ETF tracking automotive stocks listed in Hong Kong, which includes major companies mentioned, is suggested as a way to monitor investment opportunities in the sector [12][25] - The performance of key automotive stocks in the ETF indicates positive trends, with significant weightings in companies like Xpeng and BYD [13][26]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the half-price purchase tax policy for new energy vehicles and the continuation of the "two new" subsidy policy have introduced new variables for the domestic automotive market in 2026, leading to divergent sales targets among traditional and new car manufacturers [2]. Group 1: Traditional Automakers - Geely has set the highest sales target for 2026 at 3.45 million units, with a growth rate of 14%, including 2.75 million units for the Geely brand, 300,000 for Zeekr, and 400,000 for Lynk & Co [4]. - Dongfeng Group aims for a total sales target of 3.25 million units in 2026, with an estimated growth rate of over 30%, including 1.7 million units for new energy vehicles, representing a 63% increase [5]. - Chery Group has set a target of 3.2 million units for 2026, reflecting a 14% growth compared to 2025, with a total of 2.806 million units sold in 2025 [5]. - Great Wall Motors has lowered its 2026 sales target from at least 2.49 million to at least 1.8 million units, indicating a 36% increase from last year's actual sales [5][6]. Group 2: New Car Manufacturers - Leap Motor has set an aggressive target of 1 million units for 2026, following a record sales performance in 2025 [7]. - Xiaomi aims for a sales target of 550,000 units in 2026, a 34% increase from the previous year, with new models expected to launch [7]. - NIO has set a target of 456,000 to 489,000 units for 2026, with a growth rate of 40-50%, supported by the introduction of several new models [8]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The automotive market is expected to experience a "front low and back high" trend in 2026, with overall growth driven by favorable national policies [9]. - The continuation of the vehicle replacement subsidy policy is anticipated to mitigate the impact of the half-price purchase tax policy, providing a stabilizing effect on market growth [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic passenger car market is experiencing a significant decline in demand, with consumer sentiment remaining cautious despite government subsidies. Major brands are facing substantial order drops, while only a few have managed to maintain order volumes through temporary incentives [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall customer traffic in the domestic passenger car market has decreased significantly compared to the same period last year, indicating a contraction in market demand [1]. - Major brands like BYD, Leap Motor, and Chery have seen order volumes drop by over 50% in the first three days of January compared to the last weekend of December, primarily due to unmet policy expectations and reduced brand subsidies [1]. - In contrast, Geely Galaxy has shown resilience with orders reaching 8-10 units per store, while Tesla maintained orders at 15-18 units, albeit down over 30% from December [1]. Group 2: Pricing Strategies - BMW has initiated a price war by reducing the prices of 31 models, with discounts reaching up to 301,000 yuan for the flagship 7 Series, marking a significant shift for a luxury brand that rarely engages in large-scale price cuts [3][4]. - Following BMW's lead, numerous automakers have introduced various incentives, including tax rebates and cash discounts, in an attempt to stimulate demand, although these measures have not effectively countered the market's cold reception during the New Year period [3][4]. Group 3: Subsidy Policies - The automotive industry is witnessing a surge in subsidy policies across various brands, with a focus on counteracting the reduction of national subsidies and adjusting purchase tax incentives [4][6]. - Luxury brands are adopting aggressive subsidy strategies, with BMW and Volvo offering substantial direct discounts and additional benefits such as free maintenance and financing options [4][6]. - Domestic brands are implementing targeted subsidies for mid-to-low-end models, with Geely Galaxy and Wuling providing significant purchase tax rebates and trade-in bonuses to attract budget-conscious consumers [6][7]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior - The market is experiencing a clear divide in consumer response, with luxury brands facing a relatively stable order decline due to lower price sensitivity among their target customers, while mass-market vehicles under 150,000 yuan are seeing the most significant drops in orders [10][12]. - The anticipated reduction in national subsidies for 2026 has led to increased consumer hesitance, particularly among mid-to-low-end buyers, who are now facing higher costs for vehicle purchases [17][19]. - The reliance on subsidies has created a false sense of demand, leading to a market correction as consumers delay purchases in anticipation of better deals [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market is experiencing a downturn in December, with a significant year-on-year decline in retail sales, prompting companies to seek growth opportunities amidst challenging conditions [1][10]. Market Performance - From December 1 to 28, retail sales of passenger vehicles in China reached 1.928 million units, a 17% decrease compared to the same period last year and a 3% decline from the previous month [1]. - Traditional automakers like BYD reported a sales drop of 12% month-on-month and 18% year-on-year, despite achieving a total of 4.273 million units sold in 2023, marking a 144% increase in exports [6][7]. Company Highlights - NIO achieved a record delivery of 48,000 units in December, with 46% of this volume coming from the new ES8 model [3]. - Xpeng and Xiaomi also saw increases in deliveries, with Xpeng delivering 37,000 units and Xiaomi exceeding 50,000 units [3]. - Li Auto's monthly deliveries rose from 30,000 in November to 40,000 in December, aided by adjustments in production capacity [3][17]. - Homologous Intelligent achieved nearly 90,000 deliveries in December, becoming the top performer among new energy vehicle brands [4][13]. Future Outlook - Industry experts anticipate a rebound in January 2026 due to the timing of the Spring Festival and the implementation of new subsidy policies [8]. - However, the overall automotive industry is expected to remain under pressure throughout 2026 [9]. Competitive Landscape - The competition among automakers is intensifying, with companies like BYD, Li Auto, and others adjusting their sales targets and strategies in response to market conditions [20][23]. - New models and technological advancements are being prioritized, with companies focusing on high-value offerings to navigate the changing market dynamics [30][31].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais indicates that mainland China's automotive orders remained stable in the last week of 2025, with expectations for a boost in car sales in the first quarter of 2026 due to the continuation of subsidy policies and traditional demand before the Lunar New Year [1] Group 1: Automotive Sales and Demand - The automotive sales in the first quarter of 2026 are anticipated to benefit from the extension of subsidy policies and pre-Lunar New Year demand [1] - Regulatory authorities have indicated that stimulating consumption will be a primary task in 2026, with continued funding for vehicle trade-in programs [1] - The subsidy amounts will be calculated as a percentage of the vehicle price, positively impacting models priced around 150,000 RMB [1] Group 2: Market Impact and Trends - The measures are expected to have a neutral impact on lower-priced models while further promoting the high-end transformation of new energy vehicles [1] - Overall, the continuation of subsidy policies is believed to help release consumer demand that has been hesitant from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais indicates that mainland China's automotive orders remained stable in the last week of 2025, with expectations for a boost in sales in the first quarter of 2026 due to the continuation of subsidy policies and traditional demand before the Lunar New Year [1] Group 1: Sales and Demand - Automotive sales in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to benefit from the extension of subsidy policies and pre-Lunar New Year demand [1] - Regulatory authorities have indicated that stimulating consumption will be a primary focus in 2026, with continued funding for vehicle trade-in programs [1] Group 2: Impact of Subsidies - The subsidy amounts will be calculated as a percentage of the vehicle price, positively impacting models priced around 150,000 RMB [1] - The effect on lower-priced models is expected to be neutral, while the measures will further drive the high-end transformation of new energy vehicles [1] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - The continuation of subsidy policies is anticipated to help release consumer demand that has been hesitant during the fourth quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026 [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the **automobile industry**, focusing on the **new energy vehicle (NEV)** market and related government policies impacting vehicle sales and subsidies [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments Policy Changes and Subsidies - The **subsidy policy for new energy vehicles** is expected to decrease by **20%-30%**, amounting to approximately **¥220 billion to ¥230 billion**. This adjustment aims to enhance fund management and reduce fraudulent activities [1][2]. - The new policy introduces a **proportional subsidy** based on the new vehicle price, with a maximum of **¥20,000**, transitioning from fixed subsidies to a more flexible approach [2]. - Different vehicle types will see adjusted subsidy amounts, with **low-end models** like micro electric vehicles receiving reduced support, while **mid to high-end models** will benefit from increased subsidies [4][3]. Market Dynamics - The **2025 equipment update policy** offers substantial support for trucks, with a **¥45,000 subsidy** for scrapping heavy diesel trucks and **¥95,000** for purchasing new energy trucks, totaling **¥140,000** [7]. - The **2025 fourth quarter** saw a decline in retail sales, with December experiencing a **32%** drop in the first week compared to November, indicating a potential **zero to negative growth** in NEV demand due to expiring tax exemptions and supply pressures [15][2]. Economic Impact - The **economic outlook** suggests that **low-income groups** will struggle to increase purchasing power, limiting growth in the mid to low-end vehicle market. The overall automotive consumption is expected to maintain a **0% growth** rate in 2026, with a focus on high-quality development [18][16]. - The **2026 NEV market** is projected to have a **60% penetration rate**, with an expected growth rate of **14%** in the first quarter, indicating a positive trend despite challenges [20]. Challenges and Solutions - Challenges in policy implementation include **fund management** and **audit processes**, with recommendations for improved data sharing and stricter verification mechanisms to combat fraud [5][6]. - The **cross-regional subsidy issue** is addressed by requiring that new vehicle invoices and license plates belong to the same province, aiming to stabilize sales fluctuations across regions [17]. Future Trends - The **export market** for Chinese automobiles is anticipated to grow significantly, with a **25% increase** expected in January 2026, driven by high demand and favorable conditions [21]. - The competitive landscape in the automotive industry is shifting towards **innovation and technology**, with traditional brands facing pressure while new energy and luxury brands may thrive under supportive policies [22]. Additional Important Content - The **2026 passenger vehicle trade-in policy** has been adjusted to prevent short-term arbitrage, requiring vehicles to be registered in the owner's name for at least one year prior to the policy announcement [11]. - The **battery supply shortage** and rising lithium carbonate prices are attributed to high demand driven by subsidies for new energy trucks, leading to market imbalances [8][9]. This comprehensive summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, highlighting the evolving landscape of the automobile industry and the implications of government policies on market dynamics.