南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年10月21日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂LC2601合约 | 强支撑位：72000 | 17.4% | 14.9% | source： 南华研究 【核心矛盾】 展望未来一个月，碳酸锂期货价格的核心驱动逻辑将聚焦于供给端复产情况和需求端补库情况。 供给端看，十月份盐湖的产能释放将增加锂盐供给，若后续"枧下窝"复产速度超市场预期，将直接扩大供 给规模，推动碳酸锂期货价格进入震荡偏弱通道。需求端，从国家产业政策方向出发，年底前下游锂电材料 企业需求预计维持环比增长态势，随着排产提升与实际需求释放，有望拉动锂盐现货采购需求，对期货价格 形成阶段性托底力量。 综合供需两端多维度因素分析，预计碳酸锂期货价格将在72000-80000元/吨区间内呈现震荡态 ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive stocks experienced a significant rise in the morning but collectively turned bearish in the afternoon, indicating volatility in market sentiment towards the sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the report, major automotive stocks such as Brilliance China (01114) fell by 4.3% to HKD 3.78, Great Wall Motors (02333) decreased by 2.75% to HKD 15.54, GAC Group (02238) dropped by 1.86% to HKD 3.17, and Li Auto-W (02015) declined by 1.18% to HKD 87.9 [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and two other departments issued a notice clarifying the technical requirements for the exemption of vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles from 2026 to 2027, which may create stricter conditions for manufacturers [1] - UBS released a report suggesting that while most automakers should meet the new standards, the updated policies could negatively affect market sentiment [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - The Secretary-General of the Passenger Car Market Information Association, Cui Dongshu, indicated that the association raised its annual market expectations in August and will further adjust forecasts after discussions in late October, with an upward revision anticipated for the 2025 growth forecast [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan recently published a report stating that as subsidies for automobiles are nearing their end and the exemption policy for new energy vehicle purchase taxes will conclude next year, the cost of purchasing vehicles will significantly increase, potentially leading to a market rush in the fourth quarter [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The core contradiction affecting the lithium carbonate futures price stems from the tug - of - war between supply - side expected changes and demand - side peak - season support. The resumption of production at the Jianxiaowo lithium mine under CATL is a key variable. The supply - side dynamics have led to market anticipation of future price declines, while the demand side provides strong support [3]. - The resumption of production at the Jianxiaowo lithium mine is uncertain. Before September 30, the lithium carbonate futures price is likely to remain stable. After that, price fluctuations will depend on "demand fulfillment strength". It is expected that until National Day, the lithium carbonate futures price will fluctuate between 68,000 - 76,000 yuan/ton [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include potential mine - end production halts in Jiangxi and new policies supporting downstream demand. Bearish factors include the risk of insufficient restocking demand during the peak season and the potential resumption of production at the Jianxiaowo lithium mine [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Futures Data - **Price Prediction**: The strong pressure level for the lithium carbonate main contract is 80,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.0% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 65.9% [2]. - **Contract Data**: For the main contract, the closing price is 73,640 yuan/ton (up 0.63% daily, 4.13% weekly), trading volume is 343,863 lots (down 31.26% daily, 54.24% weekly), and open interest is 294,624 lots (down 1.93% daily, 13.55% weekly). Similar data are provided for the weighted contract and other contract spreads [9][10]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are 39,234 lots, up 0.0106 daily and 0.0297 weekly [10]. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore**: Different types of lithium ore have varying price changes. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,815 yuan/ton (stable daily, 0% weekly), and lithium辉石 (Li2O: 6% from Australia CIF) is 825 US dollars/ton (up 0.61% daily, 2.48% weekly) [20]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium**: Industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have different price movements. For instance, the industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 70,900 yuan/ton (up 0.42% daily, down 0.42% weekly) [24]. - **Price Spreads**: The electric - carbon to industrial - carbon price spread is 2,250 yuan/ton (stable), the electric - hydrogen to electric - carbon spread is 5,820 yuan/ton (down 5.67% daily, 6.43% weekly), and the battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF Japan and South Korea to domestic spread is - 7,602.85 yuan/ton (up 4.90% daily, 11.72% weekly) [27]. - **Downstream Products**: Various downstream lithium - related products such as phosphoric (manganese) iron lithium, ternary materials, and electrolytes also have their own price changes. For example, the average price of phosphoric iron lithium (power - type) is 33,540 yuan/ton (up 0.21% daily) [29]. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The main - continuous basis of lithium carbonate and brand - specific basis quotes are presented. For example, the basis quotes of some well - known lithium companies like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium are provided, with values ranging from - 1,100 to 300 yuan/ton for different specifications and contracts [31][32]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 39,234 lots, an increase of 410 lots from the previous day. Different warehouses show different changes in warehouse receipt quantities [35]. Cost and Profit - **Production Profit**: The production profit from purchasing lithium ore to produce lithium carbonate is presented, including from purchasing lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%) and lithium辉石 concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) [39]. - **Import Profit**: The lithium carbonate import profit is also shown, although specific details are not fully elaborated in the given text [40].

Core Viewpoint - The actual controller of Xuelong Group, He Cailin, plans to reduce his stake by up to 3% due to personal financial needs, coinciding with a recent stock price decline and market volatility [1][2][4]. Group 1: Shareholder Actions - He Cailin intends to reduce his holdings by no more than 6,334,100 shares, representing 3% of the company's total equity, through centralized bidding and block trading within three months after the announcement [2]. - As of the announcement date, He Cailin holds 27,820,700 shares, accounting for 13.18% of the total equity [4]. Group 2: Stock Performance - The stock price of Xuelong Group recently closed at 19.15 yuan, reflecting a decline of 6.22% and a total market capitalization of 4.043 billion yuan [1]. - The company experienced significant stock price fluctuations earlier in the year, with a nearly 100% increase over ten trading days in March, followed by a 40% drop, and a subsequent 27% rise in late May [4][6]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Xuelong Group's revenue for 2022 decreased by 38.46% to 291 million yuan, with a net profit drop of 66.91% to approximately 42.43 million yuan [7]. - In 2023, the company rebounded with a revenue increase of 31.95% to 384 million yuan and a net profit increase of 66.38% to about 70.59 million yuan [8]. - However, projections for 2024 indicate a revenue decline of 6.26% to 360 million yuan and a net profit decrease of 14.43% to approximately 60.41 million yuan [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Xuelong Group is optimistic about future growth, planning to invest 680 million yuan in a new research and development center and smart digital factory for key components of new energy commercial vehicles [9]. - The company aims to enhance its international strategy and optimize its overseas layout to tap into new growth opportunities [9].

2025年5月21日 中华人民共和国工业和信息化部公告 2025年 第10号 根据《中华人民共和国行政许可法》、《国务院对确需保留的行政审批项目设定行政许可的决定》、 《财政部 税务总局 工业和信息化部 交通运输部关于节能 新能源车船享受车船税优惠政策的通知》（财 税〔2018〕74号）、《工业和信息化部 财政部 税务总局关于调整享受车船税优惠的节能 新能源汽车产 品技术要求的公告》（2024年第10号）、《财政部 税务总局 工业和信息化部 科技部关于免征新能源汽 车车辆购置税的公告》（2017年第172号）、《财政部 税务总局 工业和信息化部关于延续和优化新能源 汽车车辆购置税减免政策的公告》（2023年第10号）、《工业和信息化部 财政部 税务总局关于调整减 免车辆购置税新能源汽车产品技术要求的公告》（2023年第32号）等有关规定，现将许可的《道路机动 车辆生产企业及产品》（第394批）以及经商国家税务总局同意的《享受车船税减免优惠的节约能源 使 用新能源汽车车型目录》（第七十三批）、《减免车辆购置税的新能源汽车车型目录》（第十七批）予 以公告。 附件： 1.道路机动车辆生产企业及产品（ 第394批） ...