证券代码： 002079 证券简称：苏州固锝 苏州固锝电子股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 | 投资者关系活动 | 特定对象调研 分析师会议  □ | | --- | --- | | 类别 | □ 媒体采访 □ 业绩说明会 | | | □ 新闻发布会 □ 路演活动 | | | 现场参观 □ | | | 其他 （请文字说明其他活动内容） □ | | 参与单位名称及 | 西安博成基金管理有限公司 邵嘉斌、中国银河投资管理有限公 | | 人员姓名 | 司 白文昌、国元创新投资有限公司 张长生等 | | 时间 | 年 月 日 下午 2026 2 27 (周五) 13：30~15:00 | | 地点 | 苏州固锝电子股份有限公司会议室 | | 上市公司接待人 | 苏州固锝电子股份有限公司： | | 员姓名 | 董事、总经理 滕有西 | | | 董事、副总经理兼董事会秘书 李莎 | | | 运营副总经理 徐仁庆； | | | 苏州晶银新材料科技有限公司： | | | 副总经理兼技术总监 周欣山 投资者提出的问题及公司回复情况： | | | 1、问：公司在 2025 年经营性现金流明显改善，资产负债率降低， 主要采取了哪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver price surge is significantly impacting the production costs of the photovoltaic (PV) industry, leading to a restructured cost structure and increased pressure on profitability, with a consensus emerging around the need for silver alternatives in the industry [1]. Group 1: Price Dynamics - The price of silver paste has become the largest variable, with significant increases in January, leading to a rise in the unit production cost of battery cells and modules by 0.03 yuan per watt [2]. - The cost of silver now accounts for 20% of the total production cost of modules, a substantial increase from 7% in Q3 2025 and 11% in Q4 2025, making it the core cost component [2]. Group 2: Impact of Silver Price Surge - The rise in silver prices has redefined the cost structure of the PV industry, with silver paste now constituting over 20% of component costs, compared to less than 10% previously, leading to severe profit compression for companies [3]. - Major companies are expected to report significant losses in 2025, with Tongwei Co. projected to lose 9-10 billion yuan and Trina Solar expected to lose 6.5-7.5 billion yuan, resulting in an overall industry gross margin drop from 15% in 2024 to below 5% [3]. Group 3: Challenges in Price Transmission - Companies are attempting to raise prices in response to cost pressures, but face limitations due to market conditions, with only short-term relief available through export tax rebates [4]. - The market for PV components is characterized by oversupply, limiting the ability of companies to pass on costs to downstream project developers, which may lead to loss of market share if prices are raised individually [6]. Group 4: Technological Evolution and Industry Outlook - The surge in silver prices is accelerating technological innovation in the PV industry, with a focus on reducing silver dependency, which is expected to lead to a market reshuffle [7]. - By 2026, the PV industry is anticipated to operate under increased antitrust regulations and efforts to combat internal competition, with pricing closely following the cost reduction progress of leading companies [7]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investment focus is shifting towards companies with high efficiency and low costs, emphasizing the importance of capacity utilization rates and cost reduction progress in improving profitability [7]. - Specific investment directions include short-term solutions like silver-coated copper paste, mid-term solutions such as copper plating, and long-term exploration of pure copper paste [9].

Core Insights - The silver price surge is significantly impacting the photovoltaic (PV) industry in China, leading to major companies like Heraeus exiting the market due to reduced profit margins [1][6]. Group 1: Silver Price Impact - As of December 1, the spot silver price reached a historic high of $57.7 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 90%, outpacing gold [2]. - Silver paste constitutes approximately 12% of the total cost of PV modules and over 50% of the non-silicon costs in battery cells [2]. - The supply-demand gap for silver is projected to remain significant, with an estimated shortfall of about 3,660 tons by 2025 [2]. Group 2: Technological Innovations - The rising silver prices have prompted a "silver reduction revolution" in the PV manufacturing sector, with companies optimizing processes to reduce silver consumption by nearly 80% over the past three years [3]. - The silver consumption for TOPCon cells is expected to decrease from 90-95 mg/W in 2024 to 80-85 mg/W by the third quarter of 2025 [3]. - Companies like Tongwei have successfully reduced silver usage in HJT cells by nearly 80% through innovative techniques [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The PV manufacturing industry faces a critical decision between adopting cheaper but less efficient silver-coated copper paste or waiting for the more advanced but not yet mature electroplating copper technology [6]. - The silver paste sector is under pressure due to volatile silver prices and extended payment terms from downstream customers, leading to significant profit margin squeezes [6]. - Domestic silver paste companies are also struggling, with companies like Dike experiencing a 70.03% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first half of 2025 [6]. Group 4: New Market Opportunities - The technological shift in silver usage is creating new market opportunities, with the market for new types of pastes expected to exceed 15 billion yuan by 2030 [6]. - Companies in the upstream supply chain, such as Guangxi Jianxing, are breaking foreign monopolies by producing ultra-fine silver powder at a significantly lower cost compared to imported alternatives [7]. Group 5: Industry Outlook - The international precious metals market is facing historic structural pressures, with the PV industry closely monitoring silver price fluctuations [8]. - The timeline for technological iterations in the PV sector is being compressed from several years to just one or two years, making silver reduction a critical survival challenge for all PV companies [8].

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is experiencing severe overcapacity, with nominal capacities in various segments approximately double the expected module production of 650-700 GW for 2025, while nominal capacities across the supply chain exceed 1,200 GW [2][4] - The supply of auxiliary materials such as encapsulants and glass is projected to be between 800-900 GW annually, with glass supply being slightly better due to ongoing capacity construction [2][4] Key Points on Silicon Material Market - The end of the 430 and 531 rush has led to a decline in module production, causing silicon material prices to drop significantly. The price of n-type granular silicon has fallen to 34,500 CNY/ton (including tax), with the non-tax average between 30,000-33,000 CNY/ton [2][5] - Most companies are currently operating at a loss, with only a few able to cover cash costs. As a result, the silicon material industry plans to reduce monthly production from approximately 100,000 tons to 83,000 tons, resulting in an industry operating rate of only about 30% [2][5] Inventory and Production Outlook - Silicon material inventory has been high at around 500,000 tons but has recently decreased to about 400,000 tons due to increased module production. If production remains at 100,000 tons/month, inventory could normalize by mid-2026 [6] - If production drops to 85,000 tons/month starting in July, normalization could be achieved by the end of 2025 [6] Cost Reduction Strategies - In the context of profit pressure in the PV industry, reducing silver paste costs is critical. Silver paste accounts for 12% of module costs and 39% of battery costs, second only to glass and aluminum frames [2][7] - Copper substitution is a primary method for cost reduction, with technologies including silver-coated copper, high-copper paste, pure copper paste, and electroplated copper [2][7] Copper Diffusion and Efficiency - Copper has a higher diffusion coefficient than silver in silicon wafers, which can negatively impact battery efficiency. To mitigate this, copper powder must be coated, and a silver seed layer is placed between the copper paste and silicon wafer to prevent direct contact [8] - This approach reduces contact resistance and promotes copper paste sintering, with current market solutions primarily using a silver seed layer in conjunction with copper paste [8] Market Solutions for Copper Paste - Two main copper paste solutions are being promoted: high-copper paste developed by Dike and pure copper paste developed by Polymeric. Dike's high-copper paste uses silver as a coating material and is priced at 4,000-5,000 CNY/kg, offering a cost saving of approximately 0.5 cents per watt [9][10] - Polymeric's pure copper paste, which uses non-silver materials for coating, is priced at 2,500-3,000 CNY/kg and also provides similar cost savings but requires specialized sintering furnaces [10] Market Adoption and Future Prospects - Both high-copper and pure copper paste solutions are being actively promoted in the market. High-copper paste is progressing rapidly due to its reliability in preventing diffusion risks, with expected shipments reaching several hundred tons by 2026 [11] - The higher processing barriers for high-copper paste compared to traditional products may lead to significant performance elasticity, while the successful implementation of pure copper paste could yield even greater cost savings [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.056 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 11%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 35 million yuan, a significant decline of 80% year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 65 million yuan, down 66.72% year-on-year [2][6]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a decrease in silver paste shipments due to weak battery component production, with the N-type TOPCon shipment ratio remaining stable. The company recorded a fair value loss of 40 million yuan, primarily due to fluctuations in silver futures prices. Additionally, the company made a cautious provision for credit impairment losses of 20 million yuan and reported other income of 61 million yuan, mainly from VAT rebates [12]. - The company is actively developing low-silver metallization technologies to adapt to future market changes, including a series of products transitioning from silver to copper. The N-type HJT battery low-temperature silver-coated copper paste product is expected to achieve large-scale shipments, and the company is also working on high-copper paste designs compatible with TOPCon and TBC production lines, with large-scale production anticipated in the second half of the year [12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on reliable, mass-producible, and cost-effective solutions in response to industry cycles. It has established long-term cooperative development with leading customers for high-copper paste applications, particularly for TOPCon and TBC batteries, with expectations for large-scale production in the latter half of the year [12]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts total revenue of 19.44 billion yuan for 2025, with a projected net profit of 485 million yuan. The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 3.45 yuan [18].