文 | 赶碳号科技 岁末年初，光伏周期正迎来新一轮变盘——行业底层逻辑正在潜移默化中发生结构性改变：在供给侧，是成本制胜，效率制胜；在需求侧，是场景制胜， 全球化制胜。谁的成本低、效率高，能提供整体解决方案，拥有全球化竞争力，谁就能在2026年活下来，否则就是死。 今天重点谈谈光伏企业的成本之战——这一点忽然就成了决定这一轮光伏洗牌的最大变量。因为，在过去两年中，这个竞争维度的要素已经发生本质改变 ——在过去两年中，硅料从第一成本退位，金属化成本（银浆为核心）快速抬升并成为组件端最具约束力的单一变量。 光伏成本重构：银浆取代硅料成第一成本变量 光伏行业的成本逻辑在2024-2026年这两年中，完成了颠覆性的重构。成本矛盾的第一约束从硅料转向以银浆为代表的金属化环节。以TOPCon组件为例， 三个关键时间节点的成本结构变化，清晰勾勒出这一嬗变轨迹： 1. 2024年1月：硅料退潮，银浆崭露头角 此时硅料价格已从2023年的高点回落，组件成本结构呈现初步分化： 硅料占比降至约10%-12%，较2023年9月的15%持续下滑； 银浆占比首次突破10%，达到10.5%； 玻璃、边框占比分别为12%、11%，胶膜占比9 ...

对于白银价格上涨， 认为，从白银定价逻辑来看，白银具有工业和金融两大属性。从金融属性看，全球信用货币信任度因财 政赤字扩大和地缘动荡下滑，使白银成为黄金之外另一种避险资金的优选标的。从工业属性看，2025年 工业用银占比超过60%。 白银价格又创新高。 12月22日，现货白银价格一度突破69美元/盎司关口，刷新历史高点，2025年以来累计上涨约138%。截 至当日收盘，沪银期货主力合约上涨6.06%，突破16200元/千克关口。 有分析认为，白银价格连续上涨，一方面是因为金价上涨;另一方面是因为工业需求增加。在工业需求 中，光伏产业用银量显著提升。随着N型电池技术的普及，单位装机容量的耗银量显著上升。2024年， 国内光伏银粉产量为5892吨，同比增长约30%。目前，白银已连续多年供不应求。 《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，近期光伏"去银化"技术连续突破。无银化技术电镀铜已有规模化量产， 而少银化的银包铜技术正在推进量产中。若无银、少银技术持续进步且大规模量产，将对未来白银需求 造成影响。 光伏需求影响白银市场 2016~2024年，白银总供给波动不大，甚至略有下滑，而白银总需求却持续上涨，需求增长的主因是工 业 ...

2025年12月22日，伦敦银现价格冲破69美元/盎司历史关口，沪银期货同步创下16200元/千克新高。年内138%的涨幅不仅超越黄金 （64%），更让这个曾被称为"穷人的黄金"的贵金属，成为全球资本市场的焦点。在这场史诗级行情背后，一场由光伏产业引发的工业革命 正悄然改写白银的百年命运。 一、三驾马车驱动白银狂飙：工业革命遇上货币宽松 光伏产业：白银需求的"核爆级引擎" 2024年全球光伏用银量达6146吨，占白银总需求的17%，较2021年提升9个百分点。中国光伏银粉产量5892吨，同比增长30%，相当于每分 钟消耗1.3吨白银。这种爆发源于N型电池技术普及——每GW装机需消耗150吨白银，是传统PERC电池的2倍。 金融属性觉醒：全球信用危机的避险港湾 美联储降息周期下，美元指数跌破100关口，白银作为无息资产吸引力飙升。历史数据显示，美元每贬值1%，银价上涨1.5-2%。世界白银协 会指出，2025年白银总投资需求（银条银币+ETF）达13.34亿盎司，创历史新高。 供给刚性约束：十年减产筑就价格护城河 全球白银矿产量连续五年下滑，2025年降至8.2亿盎司（约2580吨），较2020年峰值下降12% ...

白银价格又创新高。 华联期货表示，白银供应端增长显著乏力，而需求端有明显增量，工业需求已成为核心增长引擎。2025 年全球光伏产业用银量显著提升。 在工业需求特别是光伏需求强劲增长下，白银近年来连续供不应求。2022年、2023年、2024年供给缺口 分别为7762吨、6240吨和4632吨。 然而，白银价格连续上涨也给光伏行业带来巨大成本压力，这也迫使光伏厂商纷纷开发少银、无银技 术。 目前，光伏少银技术以银包铜为代表。光伏银浆头部厂商帝科股份（SZ300842，股价61.94元，市值 89.99亿元）12月19日回复《每日经济新闻》记者："公司针对TOPCon（隧穿氧化层钝化接触）电池的 高铜浆料解决方案已经实现量产应用，预计2025年第四季度形成GW级别量产线，并进一步加大量产规 模。" 12月22日，现货白银（伦敦银现）价格一度突破69美元/盎司关口，刷新历史高点，2025年以来累计上 涨约138%。截至当日收盘，沪银期货主力合约上涨6.06%，突破16200元/千克关口。 有分析认为，白银价格连续上涨，一方面是因为金价上涨；另一方面是因为工业需求增加。在工业需求 中，光伏产业用银量显著提升。随着N型 ...

Core Insights - The silver price surge is significantly impacting the photovoltaic (PV) industry in China, leading to major companies like Heraeus exiting the market due to reduced profit margins [1][6]. Group 1: Silver Price Impact - As of December 1, the spot silver price reached a historic high of $57.7 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 90%, outpacing gold [2]. - Silver paste constitutes approximately 12% of the total cost of PV modules and over 50% of the non-silicon costs in battery cells [2]. - The supply-demand gap for silver is projected to remain significant, with an estimated shortfall of about 3,660 tons by 2025 [2]. Group 2: Technological Innovations - The rising silver prices have prompted a "silver reduction revolution" in the PV manufacturing sector, with companies optimizing processes to reduce silver consumption by nearly 80% over the past three years [3]. - The silver consumption for TOPCon cells is expected to decrease from 90-95 mg/W in 2024 to 80-85 mg/W by the third quarter of 2025 [3]. - Companies like Tongwei have successfully reduced silver usage in HJT cells by nearly 80% through innovative techniques [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The PV manufacturing industry faces a critical decision between adopting cheaper but less efficient silver-coated copper paste or waiting for the more advanced but not yet mature electroplating copper technology [6]. - The silver paste sector is under pressure due to volatile silver prices and extended payment terms from downstream customers, leading to significant profit margin squeezes [6]. - Domestic silver paste companies are also struggling, with companies like Dike experiencing a 70.03% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first half of 2025 [6]. Group 4: New Market Opportunities - The technological shift in silver usage is creating new market opportunities, with the market for new types of pastes expected to exceed 15 billion yuan by 2030 [6]. - Companies in the upstream supply chain, such as Guangxi Jianxing, are breaking foreign monopolies by producing ultra-fine silver powder at a significantly lower cost compared to imported alternatives [7]. Group 5: Industry Outlook - The international precious metals market is facing historic structural pressures, with the PV industry closely monitoring silver price fluctuations [8]. - The timeline for technological iterations in the PV sector is being compressed from several years to just one or two years, making silver reduction a critical survival challenge for all PV companies [8].

Core Viewpoint - Fuda Alloy has initiated a significant asset restructuring by planning to acquire a 52.61% stake in Zhejiang Guangda Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. for 352 million yuan, following the termination of a previous acquisition of 15.5 billion yuan for Sanmenxia Aluminum Industry [2] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition will enhance Fuda Alloy's product offerings in the electrical contact industry by adding conductive silver paste to its existing portfolio of contact materials and components [2] - Guangda Electronic, established in 2010, is a national high-tech enterprise specializing in the R&D, production, and sales of new electronic pastes, with projected revenues of 1.65 billion yuan, 2.681 billion yuan, and 1.409 billion yuan from 2023 to mid-2025 [2][3] Group 2: Customer Base and Financials - Guangda Electronic's customer base is heavily concentrated, with the top five clients, including Tongwei Co., Ltd. and JA Solar Technology Co., Ltd., accounting for 96.7% of sales, and sales to Tongwei representing 21.58%, 42.09%, and 43.73% of its main business revenue over the same period [3] - As of mid-2025, Guangda Electronic's asset-liability ratio stands at 75.13% [3] Group 3: Product Development and Market Trends - Guangda Electronic has achieved comprehensive coverage of silver paste products required for mainstream battery technologies, including TOPCon, xBC, HJT, and PERC, and has developed a full-chain integration capability from core raw materials to conductive silver paste [4] - The global demand for photovoltaic silver paste is projected to grow from 2,990 tons in 2020 to 7,724 tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 26.78%, driven by the transition from P-type to N-type battery technologies [5] - Guangda Electronic is strategically positioned in the next-generation battery technology field, having established a partnership with leading manufacturers like Aiko Solar to supply xBC battery silver paste, showcasing its rapid response and competitive product capabilities [5]

Core Viewpoint - Fuda Alloy (603045.SH) plans to acquire 52.61% equity of Guangda Electronics from 15 shareholders for a cash payment of 352 million yuan, making it the controlling shareholder of Guangda Electronics [1] Group 1: Transaction Details - The acquisition price for Guangda Electronics is set at 352 million yuan [1] - After the transaction, Guangda Electronics will become a subsidiary of Fuda Alloy [1] Group 2: Company Background - Guangda Electronics, established in 2010, is a national high-tech enterprise focused on the R&D, production, and sales of new electronic pastes [1] - The company specializes in photovoltaic conductive pastes, with a diverse product structure including TOPCon, xBC, PERC, HJT low-temperature silver pastes, and silver-coated copper pastes [1] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The acquisition will enhance Fuda Alloy's product offerings in the electrical contact industry by adding electronic paste business [1] - The synergy in silver powder preparation processes, silver reduction R&D, and procurement costs is expected to improve profitability and operational sustainability [1] - This move is anticipated to strengthen the overall competitiveness of the company [1]

Group 1 - The company Fuda Alloy (603045.SH) plans to acquire 52.61% equity of Guangda Electronics from 15 shareholders for a cash payment of 352 million yuan [1] - Guangda Electronics, established in 2010, is a national high-tech enterprise focused on the research, production, and sales of new electronic pastes, particularly in the photovoltaic conductive paste sector [1] - The acquisition will make Guangda Electronics a subsidiary of the listed company, enhancing the company's product offerings in the electrical contact materials sector and improving overall competitiveness [1] Group 2 - The transaction is expected to leverage synergies in silver powder preparation processes, silver reduction research, and procurement costs, thereby enhancing profitability and operational sustainability [1] - Guangda Electronics has developed a diversified product structure centered around mainstream products such as TOPCon cell silver paste and other advanced technologies, addressing the demand for new photovoltaic cell pastes [1]

Core Viewpoint - Suzhou Goodwill Electronics Co., Ltd. reported significant growth in net profit and cash flow for the first half of 2025, despite industry cyclicality, indicating improved operational quality and efficiency [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first half of the year was 1.993 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 43.7021 million yuan, a substantial increase of 310.28% year-on-year [1]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was 177 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 146.90% [1]. Group 2: Business Development - The semiconductor business generated 461 million yuan in revenue, with a gross margin increase to 14.81%, showcasing the company's traditional strengths [2]. - The company achieved significant breakthroughs in automotive-grade products, with multiple product lines certified by leading international clients and entering mass production [2]. - In the new energy materials sector, the subsidiary Suzhou Jingyin New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. made important technological advancements, including the mass production of silver-coated copper paste with only 10% silver content, expected to drive significant sales growth in the second half of the year [2]. Group 3: Innovation and Quality Management - The company invested 76.2704 million yuan in R&D during the first half of the year, applying for 16 patents and obtaining 8 authorized patents, building a solid technological barrier in semiconductor packaging, MEMS sensors, and photovoltaic silver paste [3]. - Quality management initiatives included advancing the IATF16949 automotive system and upgrading the quality management system to version 2.0, alongside obtaining CNAS laboratory certification [3]. - The company's unique "Happy Enterprise" culture integrates traditional Chinese culture with modern management practices, enhancing team cohesion and organizational effectiveness [3].

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities highlights the urgent need for cost reduction in photovoltaic conductive pastes due to rising silver consumption and increasing silver prices, with new types of pastes expected to capture significant market share by 2030 [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Photovoltaic conductive pastes are crucial for the metallization of solar cells, directly affecting their efficiency and output power, with silver paste currently dominating the market [2] - Silver paste accounts for 27% of the total cost of photovoltaic cells, with silver constituting over 97% of the paste's cost, making it the highest non-silicon cost component [2] - The shift from P-type to N-type cell technology, particularly with the application of LECO processes, has increased the unit consumption of silver paste, further driving up demand [2] Group 2: Cost Reduction Strategies - Cost reduction strategies for conductive pastes are categorized into process silver reduction and material silver reduction, with the former involving new grid line designs and printing process optimizations [3] - New grid line designs like 0BB and multi-busbar can significantly reduce silver paste consumption, while advanced printing techniques can lower consumption by 20-40% [3] - Despite these advancements, traditional screen printing remains the dominant method, holding over 98% market share [3] Group 3: Material Substitution - The substitution of cheaper metals like copper, aluminum, and nickel for silver is a key direction for cost reduction in photovoltaic cell metallization [4] - Copper, being the second-best conductor after silver and costing only 1% of silver, is the primary choice for substitution, with various technologies like silver-coated copper and electroplated copper being explored [4] - The commercialization of high copper/pure copper pastes is expected to accelerate, with projections for mass production by Q4 2025 [4] Group 4: Industry Landscape - The photovoltaic conductive paste market is characterized by a "two strong" supply structure, with Daqo New Energy and JinkoSolar leading the global silver paste supply, holding 27.1% and 26.9% market shares respectively [5] - The demand for silver-coated copper pastes is projected to reach 1,166 tons by 2030, corresponding to a market space exceeding 3.5 billion [5] - The market for copper pastes is expected to reach 13.76 billion by 2030, indicating a significant growth opportunity with a projected CAGR of approximately 60% from 2025 to 2030 [5]