帝科股份 20250827 摘要 2025 年上半年，碧口股份营收 64.43 亿元，同比下降 4.84%，其中光 伏导电浆料收入 62.43 亿元，同比下降 7.71%。存储芯片业务收入 1.89 亿元，半导体封装胶料收入 1,154.19 万元，同比增长 75.09%。 材料销售收入 17.77 亿元，同比增长 165.82%。 公司销售毛利率为 7.86%，同比下降 2.97 个百分点，主营业务销售毛 利率为 9.15%，同比下降 2.3 个百分点。光伏导电胶料销量 879.86 吨， 同比下降 22.28%，其中应用于 n 型 Topcon 电池的全套导电胶料销量 占比 95%以上。 2025 年上半年，公司税后非经常性损益为负 1,800 多万元，主要受银 价上涨导致白银租赁和白银期货变动损失约 1,600 万元，以及专项投资 基金和资产管理计划公允价值变动损失约 950 万元影响。 碧口股份的高铜浆料已实现战略客户量产出货，并制定明确时间表，预 计 2026 年战略客户将实现更大规模量产，其他电池组件一体化龙头企 业也将跟进推动市场上的大规模量产。 Q&A 存储芯片业务主要由子公司深圳云梦负责，受 ...

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of Zhejiang Suote by Dike Co., Ltd. is a strategic move to enhance industry integration and upgrade, aligning with the ongoing "anti-involution" trend in the photovoltaic industry [1][4]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Dike Co., Ltd. announced the cash acquisition of 60% equity in Zhejiang Suote, with a supplementary agreement to protect the interests of minority shareholders [1]. - The performance commitment from the controlling shareholder, Mr. Shi Weili, includes a net profit guarantee of no less than 68.1 million yuan, 90.8 million yuan, and 128.1 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, totaling a minimum of 287 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Technological Synergy - The acquisition will allow Dike Co. to gain control over the Solamet photovoltaic silver paste business, which has a strong technological foundation and a history of innovation [2][3]. - Solamet's advanced technologies, such as the Pb-Te-O patented glass material and LECO laser carrier injection technology, are expected to enhance Dike's product offerings and market competitiveness [3]. Group 3: Market Context and Growth Strategy - The photovoltaic industry has faced challenges such as overcapacity and price wars, prompting a shift towards high-quality development as emphasized by recent government policies [4]. - Dike Co. aims to optimize its business structure by acquiring quality assets, positioning itself to seize growth opportunities in a recovering market [4]. - The company is also exploring high-copper paste solutions to reduce costs and mitigate the impact of silver price fluctuations, which is expected to open new growth avenues [5].

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is experiencing severe overcapacity, with nominal capacities in various segments approximately double the expected module production of 650-700 GW for 2025, while nominal capacities across the supply chain exceed 1,200 GW [2][4] - The supply of auxiliary materials such as encapsulants and glass is projected to be between 800-900 GW annually, with glass supply being slightly better due to ongoing capacity construction [2][4] Key Points on Silicon Material Market - The end of the 430 and 531 rush has led to a decline in module production, causing silicon material prices to drop significantly. The price of n-type granular silicon has fallen to 34,500 CNY/ton (including tax), with the non-tax average between 30,000-33,000 CNY/ton [2][5] - Most companies are currently operating at a loss, with only a few able to cover cash costs. As a result, the silicon material industry plans to reduce monthly production from approximately 100,000 tons to 83,000 tons, resulting in an industry operating rate of only about 30% [2][5] Inventory and Production Outlook - Silicon material inventory has been high at around 500,000 tons but has recently decreased to about 400,000 tons due to increased module production. If production remains at 100,000 tons/month, inventory could normalize by mid-2026 [6] - If production drops to 85,000 tons/month starting in July, normalization could be achieved by the end of 2025 [6] Cost Reduction Strategies - In the context of profit pressure in the PV industry, reducing silver paste costs is critical. Silver paste accounts for 12% of module costs and 39% of battery costs, second only to glass and aluminum frames [2][7] - Copper substitution is a primary method for cost reduction, with technologies including silver-coated copper, high-copper paste, pure copper paste, and electroplated copper [2][7] Copper Diffusion and Efficiency - Copper has a higher diffusion coefficient than silver in silicon wafers, which can negatively impact battery efficiency. To mitigate this, copper powder must be coated, and a silver seed layer is placed between the copper paste and silicon wafer to prevent direct contact [8] - This approach reduces contact resistance and promotes copper paste sintering, with current market solutions primarily using a silver seed layer in conjunction with copper paste [8] Market Solutions for Copper Paste - Two main copper paste solutions are being promoted: high-copper paste developed by Dike and pure copper paste developed by Polymeric. Dike's high-copper paste uses silver as a coating material and is priced at 4,000-5,000 CNY/kg, offering a cost saving of approximately 0.5 cents per watt [9][10] - Polymeric's pure copper paste, which uses non-silver materials for coating, is priced at 2,500-3,000 CNY/kg and also provides similar cost savings but requires specialized sintering furnaces [10] Market Adoption and Future Prospects - Both high-copper and pure copper paste solutions are being actively promoted in the market. High-copper paste is progressing rapidly due to its reliability in preventing diffusion risks, with expected shipments reaching several hundred tons by 2026 [11] - The higher processing barriers for high-copper paste compared to traditional products may lead to significant performance elasticity, while the successful implementation of pure copper paste could yield even greater cost savings [11]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is experiencing significant overcapacity across all segments, with nominal capacity for components approximately double the actual demand, expected to persist for several quarters [1][2][10] - As of Q1 2025, nominal capacities for solar components, batteries, silicon wafers, and silicon materials exceed 1,200 GW, while the expected production for components is only 650-700 GW [2][10] Market Dynamics - Silicon material prices are at a low point, with N-type silicon material prices nearing cash costs, leading to losses for many producers [1][3][4] - The end of the domestic installation rush has limited the downward price movement of silicon materials, prompting some companies to reduce production [1][3] - Demand for PV products is heavily influenced by policy changes, with a slight recovery expected in Q4 2025 due to concentrated domestic demand [1][5][7] Technological Developments - The advancement of battery technologies, particularly TOPCon and BC technologies, is crucial for clearing excess capacity [1][5][7][8] - TOPCon technology is evolving, with potential efficiency improvements, but requires significant investment for equipment upgrades, posing risks for underfunded companies [1][8] - BC technology shows strong performance in distributed markets, with higher average production power compared to TOPCon, particularly in Europe where it commands a premium [1][9][11] Financial Implications - The average production power of BC cells exceeds 650 W, providing a competitive edge in the market [9] - Companies like LONGi and Aiko are expanding their BC production capacity, while TOPCon technology faces challenges due to declining orders and profitability [11][12] - The profitability of BC technology in Europe is significantly higher than that of TOPCon, with potential for positive earnings if overseas shipments increase [11][12] Supply Chain and Inventory - The silicon material market is currently facing a supply-demand imbalance, with production cuts expected to continue as companies respond to low prices [4][14][15] - Inventory levels have decreased from approximately 500,000 tons to around 400,000 tons due to increased component production, with expectations for further reductions by the end of 2025 [16] Cost Structure and Innovations - Silver paste costs have risen to 12% and 39% of the total costs for components and batteries, respectively, making it a significant cost driver [17] - Innovations aimed at reducing silver paste costs include the use of copper-based alternatives, which face technical challenges but offer substantial cost savings [18][19][20] - The market for high-performance silver paste is expected to grow, with advancements in copper paste technology showing promise for future cost reductions [21][22] Conclusion - The PV industry is navigating a complex landscape of overcapacity, technological advancements, and shifting demand dynamics, with significant implications for future profitability and market positioning [1][5][7][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.056 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 11%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 35 million yuan, a significant decline of 80% year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 65 million yuan, down 66.72% year-on-year [2][6]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a decrease in silver paste shipments due to weak battery component production, with the N-type TOPCon shipment ratio remaining stable. The company recorded a fair value loss of 40 million yuan, primarily due to fluctuations in silver futures prices. Additionally, the company made a cautious provision for credit impairment losses of 20 million yuan and reported other income of 61 million yuan, mainly from VAT rebates [12]. - The company is actively developing low-silver metallization technologies to adapt to future market changes, including a series of products transitioning from silver to copper. The N-type HJT battery low-temperature silver-coated copper paste product is expected to achieve large-scale shipments, and the company is also working on high-copper paste designs compatible with TOPCon and TBC production lines, with large-scale production anticipated in the second half of the year [12]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on reliable, mass-producible, and cost-effective solutions in response to industry cycles. It has established long-term cooperative development with leading customers for high-copper paste applications, particularly for TOPCon and TBC batteries, with expectations for large-scale production in the latter half of the year [12]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts total revenue of 19.44 billion yuan for 2025, with a projected net profit of 485 million yuan. The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 3.45 yuan [18].

Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 4.056 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 11.29% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.6% [1] - Main business revenue was 3.053 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year decrease of 8.06% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.02% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 34.63 million CNY, down 80.29% year-on-year and 48.39% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 64.63 million CNY, down 66.72% year-on-year but up 104.9% quarter-on-quarter [1] - As of March 31, 2025, total assets reached 9.491 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 21.18%, while net assets were 1.709 billion CNY, up 2.09% year-on-year [1] Product Sales and Market Position - The company sold 424.55 tons of photovoltaic conductive silver paste in Q1 2025, with 398.36 tons (93.83%) used for N-type TOPCon battery products, maintaining industry leadership [1][2] - The company plans to enhance product R&D and market expansion to solidify its leading position in the photovoltaic battery conductive paste industry [2] Strategic Developments - The company is progressing well in collaboration with strategic customers for high copper paste solutions, with expectations for large-scale production and shipment in the second half of the year [3] - Investment in silver nitrate and metal powder projects aims to ensure supply chain security and reduce raw material costs, with trial production expected in the second half of this year [4] - The introduction of high copper paste is anticipated to create higher industry barriers due to its technical complexity and the company's leading position in market reliability and promotion [5] Pricing and Cost Management - The pricing model for high copper paste is direct, positively impacting the company's profitability [6] - The processing fees for TOPCon silver paste have stabilized, with limited room for further decreases [6] - To mitigate silver price volatility, the company employs silver futures and leasing strategies, with a focus on maintaining stable operations [6] International Expansion - The company is evaluating potential capacity layouts in different regions and monitoring overseas market demand and policy changes for cautious strategic planning [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent launch of the new L6 model by Zhiji Automotive, a subsidiary of SAIC Group, highlights a significant breakthrough in the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, particularly through the use of conductive silver paste from Dike Co., Ltd. for its key feature, the "instant intelligent control" sunshade [1] Group 1: Industry Developments - The introduction of Dike's silver paste for automotive applications marks the beginning of a potential growth phase for automotive-grade products, especially in the silver material electronic business [1] - The demand for silicon carbide (SiC) power semiconductor modules is increasing, with projections indicating that SiC will become a major selling point for domestic NEVs by 2025 [1][3] - The penetration rate of SiC in domestic NEVs is expected to exceed 26% by the first half of 2024, with both international and domestic companies experiencing significant growth in shipments [3] Group 2: Material Insights - Silver materials are gaining traction in high-power electronic modules due to their superior electrical and thermal conductivity compared to copper, leading to a rapid increase in their usage [3] - The high operating temperatures and switching frequencies of SiC chips necessitate advanced packaging materials, with sintered silver providing excellent thermal and electrical conductivity [4] - The global market for sintered silver is currently dominated by foreign companies, with significant reliance on imports for high-cost automotive electronic raw materials [2][4] Group 3: Company Performance - Dike Co., Ltd. has recently achieved IATF 16949 certification, which is expected to accelerate the adoption of its sintered silver and other materials in NEV applications [5] - Financial data indicates that Dike is projected to achieve a revenue of 15.351 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 59.85%, while net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline slightly by 6.6% [6] - The company has successfully transitioned from the photovoltaic sector to automotive power electronics, leveraging its expertise in micro-nano silver powder technology [6][7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Dike's strategy includes reducing silver content in its products to lower costs, with plans to produce copper-based solutions that maintain compatibility with existing technologies [8][9] - The anticipated mass application of high-copper paste in TOPCon batteries by the second half of 2025 could further enhance Dike's profitability and market position [9]

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - The discussion revolves around a company involved in the development of advanced materials for high-temperature batteries, specifically focusing on silver paste and its applications in Topcon and BC battery technologies [1][15][33]. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Product Differentiation**: The company emphasizes the unique design logic of its high-concentration silver paste, which combines a cloud-based substrate with a high-concentration silver layer to achieve better cost efficiency and lower silver content [1][5]. 2. **Technical Challenges**: The company faces challenges related to the stability and integrity of the silver layer, especially as the thickness decreases. This is crucial for maintaining performance in high-temperature applications [2][4]. 3. **Market Positioning**: The company has established a leading position in the market for high-temperature silver pastes, with a focus on low silver content and enhanced performance characteristics [5][15]. 4. **Competitive Barriers**: The barriers to entry for competitors are highlighted, including the need for specialized knowledge in the dual-layer paste system and the unique processing techniques developed by the company [8][10]. 5. **Performance Metrics**: The company reports significant reductions in silver content, achieving over 50% reduction compared to traditional methods, which enhances cost-effectiveness while maintaining performance [14][21]. 6. **Future Outlook**: The company is preparing for increased production capacity to meet anticipated market demand by 2026, indicating a proactive approach to scaling operations [16][20]. 7. **Customer Engagement**: The company is actively engaging with leading customers in the Topcon segment, which is expected to drive market influence and adoption of its products [15][33]. 8. **Pricing Strategy**: Initial pricing for the new silver paste is set at around 5,000, with potential reductions as production scales up, reflecting a strategic approach to market penetration [22][23]. 9. **Reliability and Efficiency**: The company is focused on ensuring that its products not only reduce costs but also maintain or enhance efficiency, addressing customer concerns about reliability [10][12]. 10. **Long-term Development**: The company acknowledges the need for ongoing validation and development of its products, particularly in high-temperature applications, to ensure they meet industry standards and customer expectations [18][20]. Other Important Content - **Market Trends**: The company notes that the market for high-temperature battery materials is evolving, with various suppliers exploring different approaches to oxidation resistance and diffusion barriers [18][19]. - **Collaboration and Validation**: The company is collaborating with leading firms in the industry to validate its products, which is crucial for gaining market acceptance and credibility [25][33]. - **Investment in Technology**: There is a strong emphasis on the technological advancements that the company has made, which are expected to provide a competitive edge in the market [27][30]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic focus, market positioning, and future outlook in the high-temperature battery materials sector.

Group 1: Economic Overview - Inflation pressure in the US has eased in the short term, with February CPI rising by 2.8% year-on-year, below the expected 2.9% and previous 3.0%. Month-on-month, it increased by 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% and previous 0.5% [7][8] - Core CPI for February rose by 3.1% year-on-year, below the expected 3.2% and matching the previous value, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [7][8] - The decline in oil prices has contributed to the easing of inflation, although the impact of tariffs has not yet been fully reflected in the data [7][11] Group 2: Company Analysis - 帝科股份 (300842) - The company reported a revenue of 15.351 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 59.85%, with a net profit of 360 million yuan, down 6.66% year-on-year [14][15] - The sales volume of photovoltaic conductive silver paste reached 2037.69 tons in 2024, an increase of 18.91% year-on-year, with 89.10% of sales attributed to N-type TOPCon battery products [14][15] - The company is expected to achieve large-scale production of high-copper paste in the second half of the year, with ongoing collaborations with leading customers [15][16] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 17.079 billion yuan, 19.031 billion yuan, and 21.320 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.26%, 11.43%, and 12.03% respectively [16] - The expected net profits for the same period are 501 million yuan, 611 million yuan, and 702 million yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.89x, 11.39x, and 9.92x [16] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its strong market position and ongoing technological advancements [16]