Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel: The real estate expectation has improved, leading to a slight increase in steel prices. The "Shanghai Seven Measures" policy has stimulated the real - estate expectation, but the black industry chain currently has un - recovered demand and high inventory levels, with a downward - driving force [8][9]. - Iron ore: With low valuation and strong expectation, the iron ore price has a slight rebound. The supply is increasing, the demand is mediocre, and the port inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate [77]. - Coking coal and coke: Affected by warehouse receipt disturbances and the fermentation of energy attributes, the prices show a wide - range oscillation. The supply is expected to recover quickly, the demand is mainly for rigid - demand replenishment, and the overall inventory is decreasing [126][127][128]. - Ferroalloys: There is a game between "weak reality" and "strong cost", and the futures market shows a strong - side oscillation. The cost center of ferroalloys has significantly increased, but the fundamental supply - demand contradiction has intensified [216]. - Thermal coal: The import coal price shows an obvious inversion, and the short - term port price increase trend may continue. Supply is recovering, demand is entering the off - season, and port inventory is at a low level [284]. Summary by Directory Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: The supply and demand of steel are both weak, and the inventory is at a relatively healthy level. For example, the rebar supply is 165.1 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 5.3 tons), the demand is 80.5 tons (a week - on - week increase of 39.4 tons), and the inventory is 800.6 tons (a week - on - week increase of 84.6 tons) [7]. - **Price and Basis Spread**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have increased slightly, and the basis spreads and price differences of the 05 - 10 contracts have changed. For instance, the Shanghai rebar spot price is 3210 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract price is 3057 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis is 143 yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread is - 33 yuan/ton [22]. - **Demand Situation**: The new - house sales are at a low level, the second - hand house sales are at a high level, and the land transaction area is also at a low level, indicating weak market confidence [27]. Iron Ore - **Supply**: The supply of mainstream and non - mainstream mines is increasing, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased slightly week - on - week but increased year - on - year. For example, the global iron ore shipment is 3320.90 tons (a week - on - week increase of 31.0%), and the 45 - port arrival volume is 2152.40 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 8.8%) [76]. - **Demand**: The steel mill profit is at a low level, the iron - water production increase is limited, and the demand expectation is mediocre. The procurement is mainly for rigid demand [109]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate, and it is expected that steel mills will not over - replenish inventory [119]. - **Price and Basis Spread**: The PB powder spot price is 751 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract price is 750.5 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis is 32 yuan/ton, and the 05 - 09 spread is 19.5 yuan/ton [81]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal** - **Supply**: After the Spring Festival, most coal mines resumed production, and the domestic supply is expected to recover quickly. The import volume at the border ports has decreased, and the port price is relatively stable [126]. - **Demand**: The market transaction activity has increased, but the overall is still mainly for rigid - demand replenishment, and the market sentiment is generally wait - and - see [127]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coking coal at all levels has decreased week - on - week, the coking and steel enterprises are in the process of destocking, and the pit - mouth inventory has increased [128]. - **Price and Basis Spread**: The futures prices of coking coal 2605 and 2609 have changed, and the basis spreads have also changed accordingly [196]. - **Coke** - **Supply**: The production capacity utilization rate and output of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants have changed. For example, the daily output of 230 independent coking plants is 45 - 75 tons, and the daily output of 247 steel - mill coking plants is 44 - 48 tons [172][175]. - **Demand**: The iron - water production has increased slightly, and the demand for coke is mainly for rigid demand [190]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coking plants and steel - mill coking plants has changed, and the total inventory has also changed [177][178]. - **Profit**: The profit of coking enterprises has increased, and the disk profit has also changed [193]. Ferroalloys (Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon) - **Silicon Iron** - **Supply**: The output has increased slightly week - on - week, and the production capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly. The output this week is 9.86 tons (a week - on - week increase of 0.06 tons), and the production capacity utilization rate is 28.32% (a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 percentage points) [262]. - **Demand**: The steel - making demand and non - steel demand are both weak, and the raw - material replenishment is over [269]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of sample enterprises has increased compared with before the festival, and the steel - mill inventory has also increased [276]. - **Price and Profit**: The futures price has increased, the spot price has increased slightly, and the profit has also increased [221][281]. - **Manganese Silicon** - **Supply**: The output has increased week - on - week, and the production capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly. The output this week is 19.74 tons (a week - on - week increase of 0.36 tons), and the production capacity utilization rate is 35.62% (a week - on - week decrease of 0.22 percentage points) [225]. - **Demand**: The steel - making demand is weakly supported, and the manganese - silicon demand is in a state of relative surplus [232]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of sample enterprises has increased, the warehouse - receipt inventory has decreased, and the steel - mill inventory has increased [239]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost center has increased, the supply - demand pattern suppresses the disk, and the profit has expanded with the disk [258]. Thermal Coal - **Supply**: After the Spring Festival, coal mines have gradually resumed production, and the supply in the main production areas has recovered. The price increase has stimulated the enthusiasm of traders and platforms for procurement [284]. - **Demand**: The daily consumption of downstream power plants has increased, but the inventory of coastal power plants is high, and the market is entering the off - season, so the terminal procurement demand is weak [284]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory has not significantly accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the inventory in the northern ports is running at a low level. The port inflow has increased [284]. - **Price**: The prices of domestic production areas, ports, and imports have all increased. For example, the price of Yulin 5800 - calorie coal is 601.0 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 3.0 yuan/ton), and the price of Qinhuangdao Port 5500 - calorie coal is 744.0 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 27.0 yuan/ton) [291].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The real estate expectation has improved, leading to a slight increase in steel prices [3]. - After the Spring Festival, the black - plate sector first declined and then rose. The decline was due to the negative feedback trading caused by weak demand and high inventory, along with weak raw material demand and speculative restocking, resulting in weak cost support. The "Shanghai Seven - Point Policy" released on February 25th optimized purchase restrictions, provident fund loans, and property tax, which stimulated the real estate expectation to improve. The low - valued steel market was sensitive to the favorable policy, and a mid - term rebound might be expected [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Steel Market General Data - **Supply and Demand**: In the week of February 27, 2026, iron water supply was 233.3 tons, waste steel supply was 14.6 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 13.1 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 36.4 tons), and waste steel demand was 30.9 tons. The supply of rebar was 165.1 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 5.3 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 41.4 tons), and the demand was 80.5 tons. The supply of hot - rolled coils was 309.6 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 13.5 tons), and the demand was 291.3 tons [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of waste steel was 564.8 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 92.4 tons and a year - on - year increase of 15.7 tons), the inventory of rebar was 800.6 tons (a week - on - week increase of 84.6 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 62.8 tons), and the inventory of hot - rolled coils was 452.2 tons (a week - on - week increase of 18.3 tons and a year - on - year increase of 16.8 tons) [4]. - **Price and Profit**: The spot price of rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract base difference was 143 yuan/ton, the 05 - 10 spread was - 33 yuan/ton, the spot profit was 146 yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 169 yuan/ton. The spot price of hot - rolled coils was 3230 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract base difference was 15 yuan/ton, the 05 - 10 spread was - 18 yuan/ton, the spot profit was 3 yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 167 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2. Rebar Fundamental Data - **Rebar Basis and Spread**: The demand is gradually entering the peak season, and attention should be paid to the positive spread arbitrage. Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3210 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract price was 3057 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract base difference was 143 yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread was - 33 yuan/ton [14][18]. - **Rebar Demand**: The second - hand housing transactions remained at a high level, indicating the existence of rigid demand, but the new - house transactions were at a low level, reflecting weak market confidence. The land transaction area also remained at a low level. It is in the traditional off - season, and the demand is at a low level [19][23]. - **MS Weekly Data**: The supply and demand of rebar were both weak, and the inventory was in a healthy state. The long - and short - process supply and inventory data showed different trends [27][28]. - **Rebar Production Profit**: Due to the decline in coking coal prices, the disk profit expanded. Last week, the rebar spot profit was 146 yuan/ton, the main - contract profit was 169 yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley - electricity profit was 21 yuan/ton [30][34]. 3.3. Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data - **Hot - Rolled Coil Basis and Spread**: The demand is gradually entering the peak season, and attention should be paid to the positive spread arbitrage. Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3230 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract futures price was 3215 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract base difference was 15 yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread was - 18 yuan/ton [36][40]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Demand**: It is in the traditional off - season, and the demand has declined. However, the profit window for exports has opened [42][43]. - **MS Weekly Data**: The hot - rolled coil maintained a low production level, and the inventory level was slightly high [45]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Production Profit**: Due to the decline in coking coal prices, the disk profit expanded. Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was 3 yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 167 yuan/ton [48][51]. 3.4. Variety Regional Differences - The report shows the regional price differences of rebar, cold - rolled coils, hot - rolled coils, and medium - thick plates, including the price differences between different regions such as Hangzhou - Beijing, Shanghai - Tianjin, etc. [58][59] 3.5. Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Thick Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report presents the seasonal data of cold - rolled coil and medium - thick plate total inventory, production, and apparent consumption [65][66] 3.6. Small - Variety Steel Inventory - The report shows the inventory data of small - variety steels such as strip steel, galvanized coils, and color - coated coils [68][69]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The expected recovery of the real - estate market has led to a rebound in iron ore prices [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 752.5 yuan/ton, up 12.0 yuan/ton with a 1.62% increase. The position was 528,484 hands, with an increase of 9,280 hands [1] - **Spot Price**: Among imported ores, the price of Carajás fines (65%) was 873.0 yuan/ton, up 13.0 yuan/ton; PB (61.5%) was 752.0 yuan/ton, up 5.0 yuan/ton; Jinbuba (61%) was 705.0 yuan/ton, up 8.0 yuan/ton; Super Special (56.5%) was 640.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton. Among domestic ores, the price of Hanxing (66%) and Laiwu (65%) remained unchanged at 899.0 yuan/ton and 817.0 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of I2605 against Super Special decreased by 13.1 yuan/ton to 89.9 yuan/ton, and against Jinbuba decreased by 3.4 yuan/ton to 68.7 yuan/ton. The spread of I2605 - I2609 increased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 17.0 yuan/ton, and I2609 - I2701 increased by 0.5 yuan/ton to 11.5 yuan/ton. The spread of Carajás fines - PB increased by 8.0 yuan/ton to 121.0 yuan/ton, PB - Jinbuba decreased by 3.0 yuan/ton to 47.0 yuan/ton, and PB - Super Special increased by 6.0 yuan/ton to 112.0 yuan/ton [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On February 25, 2026, five departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust real - estate policies, which took effect on February 26 [1] - On February 25, it was reported that some steel enterprises in North China had received a notice of temporary independent emission reduction during the 2026 National Two Sessions. They were required to implement phased emission reduction control from March 4 to March 11, with a blast furnace load reduction of no less than 30% [2] - On February 24, the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said that China and the US were in communication about President Trump's visit to China [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research on the black series of commodities in the futures market, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs, and gives corresponding trend judgments and investment suggestions [1][2] - The real estate policy is optimized and adjusted, which has an impact on the prices of related black series products. For example, the expectation of the real estate market warms up, which leads to the rebound of iron ore prices and the upward trend of log prices [2][4] - Macroeconomic factors and industry news have an impact on the market trends of commodities. For example, the temporary independent emission reduction notice during the two sessions affects the steel market, and the adjustment of coal production policies affects the coal market [5] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Iron ore - **Price trend**: The price rebounds due to the warming expectation of the real estate market. The closing price of I2605 is 752.5 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 1.62% [2][4] - **Fundamentals**: The prices of imported iron ore such as PB and Jinbuba have increased, while the price of super special iron ore has slightly decreased. The basis and spread have also changed to varying degrees [4] - **Industry news**: The real estate policy in Shanghai is optimized and adjusted, and some steel enterprises in North China receive temporary independent emission reduction notices during the two sessions [4][5] Rebar and hot-rolled coil - **Price trend**: Affected by macro - sentiment, the prices fluctuate repeatedly. The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 are 3,076 yuan/ton and 3,236 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 1.72% and 1.19% [2][7] - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume and positions of the two have changed. The spot prices in different regions are relatively stable, and the basis and spread differences have also changed [7] - **Industry news**: The real estate policy in Shanghai is optimized and adjusted. The weekly data of steel production, inventory and apparent demand have changed, and the production and inventory of key steel enterprises have changed in January [8][9] Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese - **Price trend**: Affected by real estate sentiment, the sector fluctuates at a low level [2][11] - **Fundamentals**: The prices of futures and spot goods of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have changed, and the basis, spread, and cross - variety spread have also changed [11] - **Industry news**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions are reported, and the manganese ore price is firm [11][13] Coke and coking coal - **Price trend**: Both show wide - range fluctuations. The closing prices of JM2605 and J2605 are 1,126 yuan/ton and 1,674 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 2.2% and 2.4% [2][14] - **Fundamentals**: The prices of futures and spot goods of coke and coking coal have changed, and the basis and spread differences have also changed [14] - **Industry news**: The CCI metallurgical coal index is reported, and the coking coal online auction situation is analyzed [14] Thermal coal - **Price trend**: The upstream quotation is firm, and the short - term coal price is strong. The price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5500 is 732 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [19][20] - **Fundamentals**: The prices of coal in different producing areas, ports, and overseas have changed, and the long - term agreement price has also changed [20] - **Industry news**: The North Port market is stable and strong, the upstream quotation is high and firm, and the Indonesian coal production policy is adjusted [21] Logs - **Price trend**: Due to the warming expectation of the real estate market, the price fluctuates strongly. The closing prices of 2603, 2605, and 2607 contracts have increased to varying degrees [2][22] - **Fundamentals**: The trading volume, positions, and spreads of futures contracts and the prices of spot logs in different regions and varieties have changed [22] - **Industry news**: The real estate policy in Shanghai is optimized and adjusted, and the Trump administration plans to increase the temporary global tariff rate [24]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report did not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report indicates that the real estate expectation is warming up, and the log market is expected to be volatile and on the stronger side [1]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: - For the 2603 contract, the closing price was 797.5 on 2026/2/25, with a daily increase of 1.1% and a weekly increase of 2.6%. The trading volume was 4795, with a daily increase of 150.7% and a weekly increase of 87%. The open interest was 1439, with a daily decrease of 35.5% and a weekly decrease of 64% [1]. - For the 2605 contract, the closing price was 796 on 2026/2/25, with a daily increase of 0.9% and a weekly increase of 1%. The trading volume was 5126, with a daily increase of 113.0% and a weekly increase of 258%. The open interest was 7108, with a daily increase of 26.2% and a weekly increase of 42% [1]. - For the 2607 contract, the closing price was 801.5 on 2026/2/25, with a daily increase of 0.9% and a weekly increase of 1%. The trading volume was 168, with a daily increase of 200.0% and a weekly increase of 185%. The open interest was 1195, with a daily increase of 5.7% and a weekly increase of 7% [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The spread between the spot and 2603 contract was -47.5 on 2026/2/25, with a daily increase of 23.4% and a weekly increase of 76%. The spread between the spot and 2605 contract was -46, with a daily increase of 17.9% and a weekly increase of 23% [1]. - The spreads between different contracts (2603 - 2605, 2603 - 2607, 2605 - 2607) also changed accordingly [1]. - **Spot Market Data**: - Most of the log and wood - square spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained stable, with only a few showing slight weekly increases, such as the 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong market with a 1.2% weekly increase, and the 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong market with a 1.3% weekly increase [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On February 25, 2026, five departments in Shanghai jointly issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the Real Estate Policy in this Municipality", which will be implemented from February 26, 2026 [3]. - On February 24, 2026, the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said that the two sides of China and the United States are in communication about President Trump's visit to China [3]. - White House officials said that the Trump administration is working on raising the temporary global tariff rate from 10% to 15% [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The log trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3].