青岛啤酒（600600） 2025 年中报点评：全渠道协同发力，持续高 质量增长 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 33,937 | 32,138 | 33,015 | 34,544 | 36,025 | | 同比（%） | 5.49 | (5.30) | 2.73 | 4.63 | 4.29 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 4,268 | 4,345 | 4,741 | 5,292 | 5,823 | | 同比（%） | 15.02 | 1.81 | 9.12 | 11.61 | 10.05 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 3.13 | 3.19 | 3.48 | 3.88 | 4.27 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 22.30 | 21.91 | 20.08 | 17.99 | 16.35 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券研究报告·公司 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company is focused on deepening its domestic and international market presence, with a primary goal of increasing sales volume. It employs a strategic approach that includes consolidating its market position along the Yellow River, expanding its coastal market strategy, and leveraging opportunities in the southern market [4][6] - The company is implementing a product development strategy that includes a combination of classic, pure draft, and white beer as core products, alongside premium and fresh products to capture market trends [5] - New market opportunities are being pursued through the development of diverse products catering to consumer preferences, new channel partnerships, and targeting new demographics [6] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth from a low base in 2024, with projected revenues of 331.81 billion, 339.14 billion, and 344.16 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 3.25%, 2.21%, and 1.48% [7][10] - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company is 47.24 billion, 51.25 billion, and 54.76 billion for the same years, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.73%, 8.48%, and 6.85% [7][10] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.46, 3.76, and 4.01 yuan per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20, 18, and 17 times [7][10]

Core Viewpoint - The new management team emphasizes a consumer-centric approach and sales growth, continuing the previous strategic framework while introducing new initiatives to adapt to market demands [3][4]. Group 1: New Management Strategy - The new management strategy focuses on "beer + biotechnology + health" as strategic areas for future development [3]. - The company aims to deepen its presence in both domestic and international markets [3]. - A product development strategy termed "1+1+1+2+N" will be implemented to enhance product offerings [3]. - Brand communication will be strengthened to improve consumer experience [3]. - The "Five New" framework (new products, new channels, new scenarios, new demographics, new demands) will support the cultivation of new growth points [3]. - Digital transformation will be accelerated to adapt to changing market conditions [3]. - The company plans to solidify its core business while exploring new ventures [3]. Group 2: Focus on Consumer Demand - The beer industry is characterized by stable overall volume and structural upgrades, with a projected per capita beer consumption in China of 30.5 liters in 2024, indicating significant growth potential [4]. - There is a growing demand for mid-range and premium beers, driven by consumer preferences for quality, personalized experiences, and value for money [4]. - The company aims to meet evolving consumer needs through new products, channels, and scenarios, targeting demographics such as Generation Z, women, high-net-worth individuals, and the elderly [4]. Group 3: Emphasis on Sales Growth - The product strategy includes a focus on classic, pure draft, and white beer as core growth products, alongside the development of fresh products and high-end offerings [5]. - The southern market is identified as a growth highlight, with new consumption scenarios and product launches showing initial success [5]. - International expansion will target potential markets in South Korea, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, and West Africa to drive overall sales growth [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Qingdao Beer has crossed the pressure point in Q1 2025, with expectations for volume and price to accelerate in the future [7] - The company reported a revenue of 10.446 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.710 billion yuan, up 7.08% year-on-year [7] - The report highlights that the sales volume in Q1 2025 increased by 3.53% to 2.261 million tons, indicating resilience and a positive outlook for the upcoming quarters [7] - The gross profit margin improved, with a net profit margin rising to 16.64%, reflecting better operational efficiency [7] - The report emphasizes that Qingdao Beer is a quality stock with both offensive and defensive characteristics, benefiting from restaurant recovery and management enhancements [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for Qingdao Beer are as follows: 33.614 billion yuan in 2025, 34.783 billion yuan in 2026, and 35.909 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 4.59%, 3.48%, and 3.24% [1][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 4.845 billion yuan in 2025, 5.350 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.736 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 11.51%, 10.43%, and 7.21% respectively [1][8] - The report projects the earnings per share (EPS) to be 3.55 yuan in 2025, 3.92 yuan in 2026, and 4.20 yuan in 2027 [1][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 21.75 in 2025 to 18.38 in 2027, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [1][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Qingdao Beer has crossed the pressure point in Q1 2025, with expectations for volume and price to accelerate in the future [8] - The company reported a revenue of 10.446 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.710 billion yuan, up 7.08% year-on-year [8] - The report highlights that the sales volume in Q1 2025 increased by 3.53% to 2.261 million tons, with expectations for marginal acceleration in sales growth in Q2 and Q3 due to low base effects [8] - The gross margin improved, and the net profit margin continued to rise, reaching 16.64% in Q1 2025, an increase of 0.65 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The report emphasizes that Qingdao Beer is a quality stock with both offensive and defensive characteristics, benefiting from restaurant recovery and management strengthening [8] Financial Forecasts - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is updated to 4.845 billion, 5.350 billion, and 5.736 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22, 20, and 18 times [8] - The report provides detailed financial projections, including total revenue and net profit growth rates, with expected revenue of 33.614 billion yuan in 2025, a 4.59% year-on-year increase [9]