机构：开源证券 研究员：方光照 公司持续增强以音乐为核心的变现能力，2025H1 公司在线音乐收入29.7 亿元（同比+15.9%），其中会 员订阅服务收入24.7 亿元（同比+15.2%），主要系公司不断提升用户体验、升级会员权益及丰富音乐 社区内容，月活用户数、月付费用户数稳定增长，日活用户/月活用户比例稳居30%以上，用户听歌时 长增加。社交娱乐服务及其他收入8.6 亿元（同比-43.1%），主要系公司审慎经营社交娱乐业务，聚焦 核心在线音乐业务、持续优化业务结构。 不断丰富音乐版权，提升用户体验，叠加AI 赋能，拓展变现空间 公司持续扩充音乐储备，与RBW 和StarShip 娱乐等流行K-Pop 厂牌达成版权协议，发力说唱、日本 ACG 及欧美音乐等受欢迎音乐品类，并持续强化独立音乐人生态，截至2025 年6 月，平台注册独立音 乐人81.9 万名（同比+11.9%），上传曲目约480 万首（同比+33.3%），自制工作室致力于打造精品内 容，产出《两难》、《莫愁乡》等多首热门歌曲，近期在平台上线AI 音乐人身份赋能音乐创作，丰富 平台内容。此外，公司精简网易云音乐App 界面，推出"神光播放器"等 ...

传媒/数字媒体 网易云音乐（09899.HK） 业绩延续高增长，曲库扩充与生态优化共驱成长 2025 年 08 月 15 日 方光照（分析师） fangguangzhao@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030004 毛利率同比提升，经调整营业利润大增，看好核心主业，维持"买入"评级 2025H1 公司实现营业收入 38.3 亿元（同比-6%），归母净利润 18.9 亿元（同比+ 132.8%），经调整营业利润 9.1 亿元（同比+35%），经调整净利润 19.5 亿元（同 比+121%），毛利率为 36.4%（2024H1 为 35%），利润大增主要系公司 2025H1 确认递延所得税抵免 8.5 亿元并缩减广告费用。基于 2025H1 确认大额递延所得 税抵免，我们上调 2025-2027 年业绩预测，预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分 别为 29.5/24.5/29.5（前值为 18.1/20.1/22.2）亿元，当前股价对应 PE 分别为 18.2/21.9/18.3 倍，我们看好订阅会员数稳健增长，规模效应释放驱动毛利率不断 提升，打开在线音乐业务成长空间，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation and challenges faced by Ximalaya, China's largest online audio platform, particularly in light of its acquisition by Tencent Music at a significantly reduced price, raising questions about its worth and sustainability in the competitive landscape of online audio and music [4][38]. Group 1: Valuation and Market Position - Ximalaya was sold to Tencent Music for 20.9 billion, which is one-third less than its last financing round valuation of 30 billion [4]. - Despite having a monthly active user base nearing 300 million, Ximalaya's financial struggles are evident, with over 3 billion in losses over five years and multiple failed IPO attempts [4][20]. - The valuation of Ximalaya is compared to other platforms, indicating it is worth approximately seven times Zhihu, eight times Keep, and eleven times Douyu [4]. Group 2: Importance of Copyright - Copyright is identified as the most valuable asset for online audio platforms, with Ximalaya's strategic partnerships and acquisitions in this area being crucial for its market position [5][11]. - Ximalaya has established significant copyright agreements, holding 70% of the market for audiobooks and exclusive content partnerships since 2014 [8][9]. - The platform's revenue structure heavily relies on subscription income, which constitutes over half of its total revenue, primarily driven by its extensive copyright library [10]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Challenges - Ximalaya's subscription revenue growth has drastically slowed from 57.1% in 2021 to 8.5% in 2023, indicating a decline in user willingness to pay [24]. - The average monthly active users include a significant number from third-party platforms, which may not contribute to revenue, highlighting the limitations of monetization in the audio sector [22]. - The platform's operational costs are heavily influenced by revenue sharing and content costs, which together account for over 30% of its income [20]. Group 4: Industry Comparisons - In contrast to Ximalaya, Tencent Music has a more robust subscription model with a higher payment rate, indicating a more mature commercial structure in the online music sector [32][36]. - The online audio market lacks the broad audience and established commercial mechanisms that the online music industry possesses, making it difficult for platforms like Ximalaya to achieve similar financial success [37]. - The article suggests that the online audio industry's ceiling for user engagement and monetization is lower than anticipated, leading to Ximalaya's ongoing financial difficulties [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of Ximalaya, questioning whether it is worth 20.9 billion yuan after its acquisition by Tencent Music, highlighting a significant drop from its previous valuation of 30 billion yuan during the last funding round [1][2]. Group 1: Valuation and Market Comparison - Ximalaya's valuation of 20.9 billion yuan is comparable to seven times that of Zhihu, eight times that of Keep, and eleven times that of Douyu, indicating a substantial reduction in perceived value [2]. - The company has faced four unsuccessful attempts to go public and has incurred losses exceeding 3 billion yuan over five years, making the discounted sale seem reasonable [2]. Group 2: Importance of Copyright - The article emphasizes that copyright is the most valuable asset for online audio platforms, similar to how Tencent Music cannot afford to lose Jay Chou, Ximalaya cannot afford to lose Guo Degang [5][3]. - Ximalaya has strategically invested in copyright since 2014, partnering with Guo Degang's company, and has secured 70% of the market's audio book adaptation rights through agreements with major copyright holders [9][11]. Group 3: Revenue Structure and Challenges - Ximalaya's revenue structure shows that subscription income contributes over half of its total revenue, with a significant reliance on audio books and traditional storytelling formats [12][13]. - Despite having a large user base, the platform struggles with monetization, as evidenced by a decline in subscription revenue growth from 57.1% in 2021 to 8.5% in 2023 [35]. Group 4: User Engagement and Market Limitations - Ximalaya's average monthly active users reached 300 million, but the user engagement metrics indicate a potential ceiling, with average listening time declining from 144 minutes in 2021 to 130 minutes in 2023 [22][30]. - The platform's user base includes a significant number of IoT and third-party platform users, which limits the monetization potential compared to video platforms [31]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The article compares Ximalaya's situation to that of its competitors, noting that platforms like Lizhi, which rely on user-generated content, have lower monetization rates, highlighting Ximalaya's relatively better performance [17][19]. - The online audio market faces challenges due to a lack of a broad audience and a mature commercial mechanism, making it difficult to balance high copyright costs with revenue generation [58]. Group 6: Acquisition Context - Tencent Music's acquisition of Ximalaya reflects a strategic move to consolidate its position in the online audio market, especially after struggling with its own platform, Penguin FM [62][64]. - The acquisition gives Tencent Music control over a significant portion of the online audio market, with Ximalaya holding a market share of 45.52% [64].