2026.03. 21 本文字数：1760，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 刘晓颖 中国体育消费市场的火热让相关企业纷纷去更细分的赛道寻求新机会。 但李宁方面也表示，即便流水有所下滑公司还会继续加大在篮球品类上的投入。"也许减少对篮球品类的 投入，明年的财务报表会更好看一点，但几年以后到底是好还是不好呢？我们认为大概率是不好的，所 以我们会继续强化篮球。"在钱炜看来，"篮球是中国三大球的核心球类之一，我们不认为篮球会一直低 迷，所以我们会继续坚持在篮球品类方面的投入，包括运动资源、营销渠道，还有对产品的整体开发迭 代创新，强化篮球品类核心竞争力。我们认为这样保持投入和市场领先的占位，也许在篮球品类回暖之 前，第一个能够继续快速扩大市场份额的就是我们。" 单一大球品类或许遇到瓶颈，但一些细分赛道的爆发却让李宁获得了增量。 比如跑步。得益于国内马拉松盛行，去年跑步品类成为集团的第一大品类。"李宁跑步从五年前在集团的 流水占比16%已经拉升到31%，专业跑鞋销量一年能够卖出2600万双，市占率在不断拉升和提高。"钱 炜表示，集团几年前就开始有意识地一定要加大对于跑步品类生意的进攻态势，过去几年非常积极地在 ...

Core Viewpoint - Company reported a low single-digit year-on-year growth in retail sales for Q2 2025, continuing the trend from Q1 2025 [1] Group 1: Operational Performance - For Q2 2025, retail sales (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) showed low single-digit year-on-year growth, consistent with Q1 performance [1] - Offline channel sales experienced a low single-digit year-on-year decline, with direct sales down in the mid-single digits and wholesale channel sales up in the low single digits [1] - E-commerce channel sales grew in the mid-single digits, outperforming offline retail growth [1] - The running and fitness categories continued to lead market performance, with expected high single-digit year-on-year growth in sales [1] - Basketball category remains under pressure, while sports lifestyle category sales were flat year-on-year; smaller categories like outdoor and badminton showed rapid growth [1] Group 2: Channel and Store Strategy - As of June 30, the number of sales points (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) decreased by 18 to 6099, with a net increase of 11 from Q1 [2] - Li Ning YOUNG sales points decreased by 33 to 1435, with a net decrease of 18 from Q1 [2] - Company maintains a steady store strategy focused on optimizing individual stores amid a fluctuating consumer environment [2] - The company expects to see stable store expansion throughout the year, entering a peak opening season in the second half [2] Group 3: Marketing and Future Outlook - Company plans to focus marketing efforts around themes of Yang Hansheng and the Olympics, leveraging his NBA selection for promotional activities [2] - The company has resumed its role as the official sportswear partner for the Chinese Olympic Committee and the Chinese sports delegation, with a marketing focus on "Olympics + Technology" in the second half [2] - Company forecasts revenue growth of 1.7%/5.3%/4.5% for 2025-2027, reaching 29.15/30.69/32.07 billion yuan, with net profit projections of -12.6%/+6.6%/+6.1% to 2.63/2.81/2.98 billion yuan [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with corresponding valuations of 15/14/13 times for the years 2025-2027 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's retail revenue for Q2 2025 showed low single-digit year-on-year growth, consistent with Q1 performance. Offline channels experienced a low single-digit decline, while e-commerce channels grew at a mid-single-digit rate [2][3] - The running and fitness categories continue to outperform, with expected high single-digit growth in revenue for Q2. Basketball remains under pressure, while outdoor and badminton categories are growing rapidly [2][3] - The company is focusing on a stable store strategy, with a net decrease of 18 stores to 6099 by June 30. The company plans to maintain steady expansion in store numbers throughout the year [2][3] - Marketing efforts will focus on themes related to Yang Hansheng and the Olympics, aiming to boost sales in the basketball category and enhance brand recognition [3] Financial Summary - Projected revenue growth for 2025-2027 is 1.7%, 5.3%, and 4.5%, reaching 29.15 billion, 30.69 billion, and 32.07 billion yuan respectively. Net profit is expected to decline by 12.6% in 2025, followed by growth of 6.6% and 6.1% in the subsequent years [3][4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.02, 1.09, and 1.15 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14.65, 13.75, and 12.96 [4][12] - The company maintains a healthy inventory level despite a challenging consumption environment [3]

Company Overview - In Q2 2025, the retail revenue of the Li Ning brand (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) grew at a low single-digit percentage year-on-year, with a net increase of 11 retail points during the quarter [1] - The wholesale channel continued to outperform direct sales, with healthy inventory levels despite pressure on discounts due to market fluctuations [1] - The retail revenue from offline direct sales declined at a mid-single-digit percentage year-on-year, with a net decrease of 13 retail points, while the offline wholesale channel saw low single-digit growth and a net opening of 24 retail points [1] Product Performance - In terms of product categories, the running category saw high single-digit year-on-year growth, although the growth rate slowed compared to Q1 2025, which benefited from sponsorship of events like the Beijing Marathon [1] - The fitness category continued to perform well with high single-digit year-on-year growth, while the sports lifestyle category stabilized with flat year-on-year performance [1] - The basketball category experienced a decline in line with industry trends, while emerging categories such as outdoor and badminton maintained healthy growth [1] Discount and Inventory Management - Discounts in both online and offline channels deepened year-on-year at a low single-digit percentage, but the company maintained a healthy inventory level, with a channel inventory-to-sales ratio of approximately 4x as of the end of June [1] Future Outlook - Since July, retail has continued to fluctuate, with pressure on offline revenue and discounts for the Li Ning brand [2] - In the second half of the year, the company plans to increase marketing and product investment around the theme of "Olympics and Technology," including activities related to Olympic sponsorship and new product launches in various categories [2] - The management maintains guidance for 2025 revenue to be flat year-on-year and a high single-digit net profit margin [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 0.92 and 1.07 HKD respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to 16x and 14x the 2025 and 2026 P/E ratios [2] - The target price remains at 20.82 HKD, implying a 30% upside potential compared to the current stock price, corresponding to 21x and 18x the 2025 and 2026 P/E ratios [2]

Core Viewpoint - Company maintains EPS forecasts for 2025/26 at 0.92/1.07 HKD, with current stock price corresponding to 16/14 times 2025/26 P/E ratio, maintaining an outperform rating and target price of 20.82 HKD, indicating a 30% upside potential from current price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the retail revenue of the Li Ning brand (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) grew low single digits year-on-year, with a net increase of 11 retail points in the quarter [1] - Wholesale channel continues to outperform direct sales, with offline wholesale retail revenue growing low single digits year-on-year and a net opening of 24 retail points during the period; online channel retail revenue grew mid single digits year-on-year [2] - The running category saw sales growth in high single digits year-on-year, while the fitness category continued to perform well with high single-digit growth; the sports lifestyle category stabilized with year-on-year growth flat in Q2 2025 [2] Group 2: Inventory and Discounts - Despite a volatile retail environment, the company maintained a healthy inventory level, with a channel inventory turnover ratio of approximately 4x as of the end of June, indicating controllable inventory status [2] - Discounts in both online and offline channels deepened low single digits year-on-year [2] Group 3: Marketing and Future Outlook - As retail remains volatile since July, the company plans to increase marketing and product investment focused on "Olympics plus technology" for the second half of the year, including activities related to Olympic sponsorship and new product launches in various categories [3] - The management maintains guidance for 2025 revenue to be flat year-on-year, with net profit margin in high single digits [3]