研究早观点 2025 年 8 月 26 日 星期二 市场走势 资料来源：最闻 李明阳 执业登记编码：S0760525050002 邮箱：limingyang@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【公司评论】应流股份(603308.SH)：应流股份 2025 中报点评-两机业 务高景气，在手订单充沛 【公司评论】天融信(002212.SZ)：天融信（002212.SZ）：二季度收入实现 正增长，一体机成为新增长点 【公司评论】深信服(300454.SZ)：深信服（300454.SZ）：收入端稳健增长， Q2 单季度实现扭亏 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,883.56 | 1.51 | | 深证成指 | | 12,441.07 | 2.26 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,469.22 | 2.08 | | 中小板指 | | 7,580.95 | 1.79 | | 创业板指 | | 2,762.99 | 3.00 | | 科创 50 | | 1,287.73 | 3.20 | 资料来源：最闻 分析师： 【山证 ...

电信运营Ⅲ 中国联通（600050.SH） 买入-A(维持) 双千兆服务挖掘价值，精准投资聚焦算力部署 事件描述： 中国联通发布 2025 半年度报告。2025H1，公司实现营业收入 2002 亿元， 同比+1.5%；实现利润总额 177 亿元，同比+5.2%；归母净利润 63.49 亿元， 同比+5.1%。 事件点评： 移动联网、宽带联网稳健增长，FTTR 成为主要增收引擎。移宽两网用 户规模均创历史新高，联接用户规模突破 12 亿，其中移动和宽带用户净增超 过 1,100 万，创近年同期新高，总量达到 4.8 亿；物联网连接数净增超过 6,000 万，总量达到 6.9 亿，其中车联网 8,600 万，主导优势继续巩固。网络质量升 级，全面推进低频共享，移动网络人口覆盖率超 99%；5G-A 规模商用超 330 个城市；宽带网络覆盖 5.7 亿家庭，持续完善千兆光网，加快建设万兆光网， 万兆光网试点达到 106 个城市。数字服务推陈出新，50%的联通用户选择"双 千兆"服务，联通超清、联通看家、云智手机和"智家通通"机器人等服务 2.7 亿用户，融合业务渗透率超过 77%、客单价超过百元。我们认为，5G 手 ...

中经记者 谭伦 北京报道 2025年半年报业绩出炉后，近年来一直是三大运营商最大增速引擎的云业务受到关注。其中，移动云收 入达561亿元，同比增长11.3%；联通云收入达376亿元，同比增长4.6%；天翼云收入达573亿元，同比 增长3.8%。虽然均保持增长，但相比于此前几年三家平均20%以上的增速，运营商"三朵云"呈现出明显 的放缓趋势。 相比之下，在国内政企公有云市场中，以阿里云、腾讯云等为代表的互联网云厂商则开始重回快速增长 通道。最新财报显示，2025财年第一财季（对应2025自然年第二季度），阿里云营收实现同比增长 18%，创下近三年最快增速。作为对照，涵盖云业务的腾讯金融科技及企业服务收入也在2025年第二季 度实现同比增长10%。 据IDC此前统计，截至2024年下半年，中国IaaS市场前五厂商分别为阿里云、华为云、中国电信天翼 云、移动云和腾讯云，市场份额分别为26.1%、13.2%、13.1%、9.3%、8.1%，运营商跻身前五已占两 席。仅半年过去，此前被广泛看好的运营商云再度面临挑战。 对于此番变化，Omida电信战略分析师杨光向《中国经营报》记者表示，经过前几年高速增长后，运营 商云的 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The three major telecom operators in China are significantly increasing their investments in AI, with a focus on enhancing infrastructure to support AI data development [1][49] - The global largest semi-solid battery storage order has been signed by Nandu Power, with a total capacity of 2.8GWh, marking a significant advancement in energy storage technology [2][50] - The domestic wind power industry is accelerating its development, supported by the initiation of the "14th Five-Year" marine economy development plan [3][55] Summary by Sections AI Investments - The three major telecom operators (China Telecom, China Mobile, China Unicom) reported robust growth in their core businesses and are prioritizing AI-related sectors, with expected capital expenditures around 55 billion yuan for the year [1][49] Battery Storage - Nandu Power's order for semi-solid battery storage is the largest globally, expected to enhance the renewable energy absorption capacity of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [2][50] Wind Power Development - The National Development and Reform Commission has launched a plan to support the marine wind power industry, indicating a strong governmental push for renewable energy sources [3][55] Lithium Mining - CATL has suspended operations at its Jiangxi lithium mine due to the expiration of its mining license, which is projected to reduce domestic lithium supply by approximately 8% [2][51] Energy Storage Initiatives - Indonesia has announced a 320GWh distributed battery storage plan as part of its 100GW solar development initiative, aiming to deploy solar and storage systems across 80,000 villages [3][53] Market Regulations - Gansu province has implemented a market-oriented pricing reform for renewable energy, allowing all new energy projects to participate in market transactions [4][61][62]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Unicom (600050.SH) [3] Core Views - The company demonstrated steady growth in operating performance, with revenue reaching 200.2 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.349 billion yuan, up 5.1% year-on-year [1][2] - The business structure continues to optimize, with the connectivity communication segment generating 131.9 billion yuan in revenue, a 5.4% increase, accounting for 74.0% of total revenue [2] - The company has seen a significant increase in user scale, surpassing 1.2 billion connected users, with net additions of over 11 million mobile and broadband users, marking a record high for the same period in recent years [2] - The intelligent network segment generated 45.4 billion yuan in revenue, a 4.4% increase, contributing 25.5% to total revenue [2] - The company is enhancing its operational efficiency, with a net profit margin of 7.21%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 200.2 billion yuan, with a net profit of 6.349 billion yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 5.580 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 1.5%, 5.1%, and 10.3% respectively [1] - The company’s capital expenditure decreased by 15% year-on-year to 20.2 billion yuan, with a projected annual capital expenditure of around 55 billion yuan [3] User Growth and Business Segmentation - The total number of connected users exceeded 1.2 billion, with a net increase of over 11 million users in mobile and broadband services [2] - The "dual-gigabit" user ratio reached 50%, and the penetration rate of integrated services exceeded 77% [2] Profitability and Efficiency - The company’s cost operation efficiency improved, with a decrease in network settlement expenses by 0.2% and depreciation and amortization by 4.8% [3] - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 10.1 billion yuan, 11.3 billion yuan, and 12.6 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17x, 15x, and 13x [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Unicom (600050.SH) [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 200.2 billion for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.45%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 6.349 billion, up 5.12% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing its smart network capabilities and shareholder returns, with a proposed dividend of RMB 0.1112 per share, reflecting a 16% increase compared to the previous year [1] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In the first half of 2025, the company's EBITDA was RMB 50.604 billion, down 2.48% year-on-year, while the total profit reached RMB 17.697 billion, an increase of 5.22% year-on-year [1] - The revenue from the connected communication business reached RMB 131.9 billion, with a user base exceeding 1.2 billion, marking a net increase of over 11 million users [2] Business Segments - The smart network business generated RMB 45.4 billion in revenue, accounting for 26% of total revenue, with cloud revenue contributing RMB 37.6 billion [2] - The data center segment saw a revenue increase of 9.4% year-on-year, reaching RMB 14.4 billion, driven by more internet platform companies and financial institutions utilizing the data center [2] Investment and Infrastructure - Capital expenditure for the first half of 2025 was RMB 20.2 billion, a decrease of 15% year-on-year, with operational efficiency improvements leading to an annual OPEX saving of nearly RMB 1 billion [3] - The company is advancing its computing power infrastructure, with a total data center capacity of 2,650 MW and a computing scale of 30 EFLOPS [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 has been slightly adjusted down to RMB 9.7 billion, reflecting a 7% decrease, with future estimates showing a steady growth trajectory [4] - The report anticipates a long-term positive outlook for the company, supported by stable core communication business and robust growth in innovative sectors [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company has achieved a double-digit growth in net profit excluding non-recurring items, with a 10.3% year-on-year increase in the first half of 2025 [1] - The business structure continues to optimize, with steady progress in connected communications and enhanced capabilities in computing networks [2] - The company is focused on shareholder returns, proposing a mid-term dividend of 0.1112 yuan per share, a 16% increase year-on-year [4] - The company is expected to maintain a good growth momentum, with projected net profits of 9.73 billion, 10.42 billion, and 11.01 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 200.2 billion yuan, a 1.5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.35 billion yuan, up 5.1% [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 5.58 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.3% growth [1] Business Segments - The connected communications segment generated revenue of 131.9 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a user base exceeding 1.2 billion [2] - The computing network segment's revenue reached 45.4 billion yuan, accounting for 26% of total revenue, with significant growth in cloud services and data centers [2] - International business revenue grew by 11% to 6.8 billion yuan, with strategic emerging industries contributing 86% to total revenue [2] Network Development - The company has made significant progress in network construction, with capital expenditures of 20.2 billion yuan, a 15% decrease year-on-year [3] - The data center's resource utilization rate exceeded 70%, and the company is advancing its computing infrastructure with a total capacity of 2,650 MW [3] Shareholder Returns - The company is committed to sharing development dividends with shareholders, proposing a mid-term dividend of 0.1112 yuan per share, which is a 16% increase from the previous year [4] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with net profit forecasts of 9.73 billion, 10.42 billion, and 11.01 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Galaxy Entertainment Group with a target price of HKD 49.81, representing a potential upside of 26.61% from the current stock price of HKD 39.34 [2][10]. Core Insights - Galaxy Entertainment Group reported strong Q2 2025 results with a net revenue increase of 10.3% year-on-year and 7.5% quarter-on-quarter, reaching HKD 12.04 billion, which is 91.4% of the 2019 level [5]. - The adjusted EBITDA grew by 12.4% year-on-year and 8.3% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 3.57 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 29.6% [5]. - The company announced an interim dividend of HKD 0.7 per share, raising the payout ratio to 59%, marking it as the first in the industry to increase dividends [5]. - The introduction of smart gaming tables and the launch of the Capella Hotel and Resort are expected to enhance market share and attract high-quality customers [10]. Summary by Sections Galaxy Entertainment Group Performance - Q2 2025 net revenue was HKD 12.04 billion, a 10.3% increase year-on-year and a 7.5% increase quarter-on-quarter [5]. - VIP gaming table turnover increased by 20.8% year-on-year and 20.2% quarter-on-quarter [5]. - The adjusted EBITDA reached HKD 3.57 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 12.4% [5]. Hotel and Casino Operations - "Galaxy Macau" and the StarWorld Hotel reported net revenues of HKD 10 billion and HKD 1.17 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 16% and a decrease of 11.5% [6]. - The EBITDA for "Galaxy Macau" was HKD 3.33 billion, reflecting a 19.5% year-on-year increase [6]. Future Developments - The Capella Hotel and Resort is set to officially open soon, featuring high-end amenities aimed at attracting a new customer base [7]. - The ongoing construction of the fourth phase of "Galaxy Macau" is expected to be completed by 2027, adding significant capacity and facilities [7]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts total net income for 2025 at HKD 47.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [12]. - The projected EBITDA for 2025 is HKD 13.86 billion, reflecting a 13.7% increase [12]. - The expected net profit for 2025 is HKD 10.13 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 15.7% [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Unicom [3] Core Viewpoints - The integration of AI+ is expected to bring new growth momentum, driving long-term high-quality development and providing high dividend returns to shareholders [2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, China Unicom achieved total revenue of 200.202 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.45%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.349 billion yuan, up 5.1%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items reached 5.580 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.3% [5] - In Q2 2025 alone, the company reported total revenue of 96.849 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.743 billion yuan, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 43.63% [5] Business Segment Performance - The traditional connectivity business generated revenue of 131.9 billion yuan, accounting for 65.9% of total revenue, with over 11 million new mobile and broadband users and 330 cities utilizing 5G-A commercial services [5] - The smart network business segment reported revenue of 45.4 billion yuan, contributing 26% to total revenue, indicating a further increase compared to the previous year [5] Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - The company plans to invest 55 billion yuan in capital expenditures for 2025, focusing on enhancing intelligent computing power and network capacity [5] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 9.734 billion yuan, 10.599 billion yuan, and 11.551 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.31 yuan, 0.34 yuan, and 0.37 yuan [6]

Macro - The July CPI data indicates that the transmission of tariffs on core goods inflation remains slow, reinforcing market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. However, the current market's expectation of three rate cuts this year may be overly optimistic, as immigration and tariff policies will continue to impact inflation in the second half of the year [2][5]. - In July, the US CPI year-on-year was 2.7% (previous value 2.7%, market expectation 2.8%). The core CPI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%. The month-on-month CPI growth rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2% (market expectation 0.2%), while the core CPI month-on-month was 0.3% (previous value 0.2%), in line with market expectations [3][16]. Financial Engineering - A multi-factor model suitable for the CSI 300 index component stocks, combined with a small-cap high-growth satellite strategy, can stabilize and improve the performance of the CSI 300 enhanced strategy. With a 30% domestic and 10% foreign satellite allocation, the annualized excess return of the CSI 300 enhanced strategy since 2016 is 12.6%, with a tracking error of 5.2% [2][7]. - The internal component stock returns are relatively ordinary, which may be related to the differing performance of internal and external factors of the CSI 300 index component stocks. The backtesting results show that the model's stock selection robustness for internal components is superior to that of the all-A multi-factor model [6][7]. Beauty Industry - Yiwang Yichuang - Yiwang Yichuang is a leading e-commerce operator in China, focusing on beauty and personal care products. The company is actively optimizing its business structure and investing in research and development, with a forward-looking application of AI to enhance brand operations, which is expected to help reduce costs and expand business [9][10]. - The company emphasizes R&D and digital construction, with plans to deploy large models and AI systems by 2024, which are expected to empower its agency operations. The company’s core business involves providing online services for brand image shaping and operational modules, with many areas that can be optimized through AI [10][11]. - In 2025, the company launched a stock incentive plan, which is expected to lead to a turning point in performance. The plan involves granting up to 2 million restricted shares to 34 executives and core technical personnel, with performance targets set for revenue and profit growth over the next three years [11].