丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨中国联通（600050.SH） [Table_Title] 中国联通 2025 三季报点评： 经营保持良好势头，报表质量持续改善 [Table_Author] 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 前三季度，公司经营发展保持良好势头，收入、利润稳健增长。联网通信稳中有进，宽移 用户净增规模创近年同期新高，融合套餐用户 ARPU 也保持百元以上；算网数智提能升级，智 算规模进一步扩大。此外，公司应收账款规模和信用减值损失同比增幅明显收窄，现金流较中 报也有所改善，报表质量持续优化。展望 2025 年，公司有望实现营业收入、利润及净资产收 益率的有力增长。 于海宁 温筱婷 SAC：S0490517110002 SAC：S0490524100002 SFC：BUX641 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 分析师及联系人 2025-11-17 [Table_Title 中国联通 2025 2] 三季报点评： 经营保持良好势头，报表质量持续改善 [Table_Summary2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The decline in traditional communication business is the primary reason for ZTE's profit drop, as operators reduce their capital expenditures, impacting the profitability of upstream equipment manufacturers [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - ZTE's Q3 revenue was 28.967 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.11%, while net profit fell to 264 million yuan, a decrease of 87.84% [1] - For the first three quarters, ZTE's revenue reached 100.52 billion yuan, up 11.63% year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 32.69% to 5.322 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The three major operators in China are expected to maintain a cautious and efficient investment strategy, focusing on strategic emerging industries such as AI, computing power, and 6G, while traditional investments in mobile and broadband networks will gradually shrink [2] - Capital expenditures for the three major operators in the first half of 2025 are projected to be 112.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.5% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 3: Business Structure - ZTE's operator network business revenue for the first half of the year was 35.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 6%, attributed to the maturity of domestic 5G network construction [3] - ZTE is shifting its focus towards emerging businesses, with computing power revenue growing by 180% year-on-year, accounting for 25% of total revenue [3] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - ZTE is actively responding to the ongoing decline in domestic 5G investment by integrating AI into its ICT technology base [4] - The company has achieved large-scale high-performance interconnection of domestically produced GPU cards and has entered partnerships with major domestic internet and financial companies [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China Unicom [2] Core Views - In Q3 2025, China Unicom achieved a revenue of 293 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, and a net profit of 88 billion yuan, up 5.2% year-on-year, indicating continuous user growth and optimization of profit quality [1][3] - The company focuses on two main businesses: network communication and intelligent computing, showing good operational momentum [3] - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 95 billion yuan, 101 billion yuan, and 107 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18.0, 17.0, and 16.0 [3][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, China Unicom's mobile users reached 356 million, with a net increase of 12.48 million users, and broadband users reached 129 million, with a net increase of 6.79 million users [3] - The cloud revenue for Q3 2025 was 52.9 billion yuan, growing 20.6% year-on-year, while data center revenue was 21.4 billion yuan, up 8.9% year-on-year [3] - The company reported a net profit of 55 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a 5.3% increase year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 24 billion yuan, up 5.4% year-on-year [3] Cost Management - Operating costs for Q3 2025 were 214 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, indicating effective cost control [3] - Depreciation and amortization expenses were 60.5 billion yuan, down 4.3% year-on-year, representing 23.1% of service revenue [3] Cash Flow and Financial Health - Operating cash flow for Q3 2025 was 29.06 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4% year-on-year, marking a positive trend in cash flow [3] - As of Q3 2025, accounts receivable stood at 70.93 billion yuan, up 13.31% year-on-year, with improved collection management expected to enhance cash flow further [3] Valuation Metrics - The report provides projected financial metrics, including total revenue for 2025 estimated at 398.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2% [5] - The report indicates a projected PB ratio of 1.0 for 2025, reflecting stable valuation expectations [5][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Unicom, with a target price of 7.83 CNY [5][12]. Core Insights - China Unicom's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 showed steady growth, with total revenue reaching 293 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.623 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.9% [2][12]. - The company's digital intelligence business is a strong growth driver, with significant revenue contributions from its cloud services and data center operations. The cloud segment generated 52.9 billion CNY, while the data center business achieved 21.4 billion CNY, marking an 8.9% increase year-on-year [12]. - The report highlights the solid foundation of the connectivity business, with mobile users reaching 356 million, adding 12.48 million users, and fixed broadband users reaching 129 million, adding 6.79 million users, both achieving record net additions for the same period in recent years [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for China Unicom are as follows: 372.597 billion CNY for 2023, 389.589 billion CNY for 2024, and 402.638 billion CNY for 2025, with growth rates of 5.0%, 4.6%, and 3.3% respectively [4][13]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 8.173 billion CNY for 2023, increasing to 9.030 billion CNY in 2024 and 9.694 billion CNY in 2025, with growth rates of 12.0%, 10.5%, and 7.4% respectively [4][13]. - The report indicates a decrease in capital expenditure by 15% year-on-year, with a focus on high-value areas such as computing power networks [12]. Market Position - China Unicom's current stock price is 5.55 CNY, with a market capitalization of 173.518 billion CNY. The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 1.01 and a dividend yield of 2.85% [6][14]. - The company has a solid financial position, with total assets of 662.845 billion CNY and total liabilities of 304.910 billion CNY, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 46% [13].

Core Viewpoint - China Unicom plans to spin off its subsidiary, Unicom Smart Network Technology Co., Ltd. (Smart Network Technology), for an independent listing on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's Growth Enterprise Market, pending approval from its controlling shareholder [1][2]. Group 1: Spin-off Details - The spin-off is expected to enhance the long-term development of Smart Network Technology, allowing it to achieve independent listing and diversify its financing channels, which will support its high-quality growth [2][6]. - Smart Network Technology, established in August 2015, is a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Unicom Group, focusing on digital operation services for the automotive sector, with three main business segments: vehicle networking connection, operation, and innovative applications [2][4]. Group 2: Shareholder Structure - China Unicom holds 68.88% of Smart Network Technology, with other notable shareholders including major automotive companies such as FAW and Dongfeng, indicating a strong automotive industry presence within the company [5][6]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, China Unicom reported a revenue of approximately RMB 293 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, with service revenue accounting for over 90% of total revenue [10][11]. - The company achieved a pre-tax profit of approximately RMB 24.7 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching about RMB 20 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [10][11]. Group 4: Cloud Revenue and Growth - China Unicom's cloud revenue reached RMB 52.9 billion, marking a significant growth point for the company, alongside a notable increase in data center revenue by 8.9% to RMB 21.4 billion [11][14]. - The company is focusing on integrating 5G, AI, and industrial internet technologies to enhance its service capabilities and drive high-quality development [14].

Core Insights - China Unicom reported a net profit of 20 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 5.1% [1][2] - The company's operating revenue reached 293 billion RMB, showing a modest growth of 1.0% year-on-year, with service revenue accounting for over 90% of total revenue [1][2] Financial Performance - Net profit attributable to equity holders increased to 20 billion RMB, with a pre-tax profit rising to 24.7 billion RMB, indicating enhanced profitability [1] - Service revenue grew to 261.6 billion RMB, marking a 1.1% increase year-on-year [1] User Growth - The total number of mobile users reached 356 million, with a net addition of 12.48 million users [1] - Fixed broadband users increased to 129 million, with a net addition of 6.79 million users, achieving the highest net growth in recent years [1] - The number of IoT connections surpassed 700 million [1] Business Structure and Growth Areas - The cloud and data center business segments emerged as key growth drivers, with cloud revenue reaching 52.9 billion RMB and data center revenue increasing by 8.9% to 21.4 billion RMB [2] - The company is focusing on deepening the integration of 5G, AI, and industrial internet, serving over 20,000 customers with 5G virtual private networks [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Unicom (600050.SH) is given a recommended rating due to its stable growth in operating performance and continuous optimization of its business structure [2] - The company has shown improvements in operational efficiency, leading to enhanced profitability [2] Group 2 - The report highlights the risk of intensified competition in traditional businesses, which may lead to a decline in user ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) [2] - There is a concern regarding potential overspending on capital expenditures related to 5G [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Unicom (600050.SH) [3] Core Views - The company demonstrated steady growth in operating performance, with revenue reaching 200.2 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.349 billion yuan, up 5.1% year-on-year [1][2] - The business structure continues to optimize, with the connectivity communication segment generating 131.9 billion yuan in revenue, a 5.4% increase, accounting for 74.0% of total revenue [2] - The company has seen a significant increase in user scale, surpassing 1.2 billion connected users, with net additions of over 11 million mobile and broadband users, marking a record high for the same period in recent years [2] - The intelligent network segment generated 45.4 billion yuan in revenue, a 4.4% increase, contributing 25.5% to total revenue [2] - The company is enhancing its operational efficiency, with a net profit margin of 7.21%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 200.2 billion yuan, with a net profit of 6.349 billion yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 5.580 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 1.5%, 5.1%, and 10.3% respectively [1] - The company’s capital expenditure decreased by 15% year-on-year to 20.2 billion yuan, with a projected annual capital expenditure of around 55 billion yuan [3] User Growth and Business Segmentation - The total number of connected users exceeded 1.2 billion, with a net increase of over 11 million users in mobile and broadband services [2] - The "dual-gigabit" user ratio reached 50%, and the penetration rate of integrated services exceeded 77% [2] Profitability and Efficiency - The company’s cost operation efficiency improved, with a decrease in network settlement expenses by 0.2% and depreciation and amortization by 4.8% [3] - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 10.1 billion yuan, 11.3 billion yuan, and 12.6 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17x, 15x, and 13x [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Unicom (600050.SH) [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 200.2 billion for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.45%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 6.349 billion, up 5.12% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing its smart network capabilities and shareholder returns, with a proposed dividend of RMB 0.1112 per share, reflecting a 16% increase compared to the previous year [1] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In the first half of 2025, the company's EBITDA was RMB 50.604 billion, down 2.48% year-on-year, while the total profit reached RMB 17.697 billion, an increase of 5.22% year-on-year [1] - The revenue from the connected communication business reached RMB 131.9 billion, with a user base exceeding 1.2 billion, marking a net increase of over 11 million users [2] Business Segments - The smart network business generated RMB 45.4 billion in revenue, accounting for 26% of total revenue, with cloud revenue contributing RMB 37.6 billion [2] - The data center segment saw a revenue increase of 9.4% year-on-year, reaching RMB 14.4 billion, driven by more internet platform companies and financial institutions utilizing the data center [2] Investment and Infrastructure - Capital expenditure for the first half of 2025 was RMB 20.2 billion, a decrease of 15% year-on-year, with operational efficiency improvements leading to an annual OPEX saving of nearly RMB 1 billion [3] - The company is advancing its computing power infrastructure, with a total data center capacity of 2,650 MW and a computing scale of 30 EFLOPS [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 has been slightly adjusted down to RMB 9.7 billion, reflecting a 7% decrease, with future estimates showing a steady growth trajectory [4] - The report anticipates a long-term positive outlook for the company, supported by stable core communication business and robust growth in innovative sectors [4]

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 200.2 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.5%, and a total profit of 17.8 billion RMB, up 5.1% year-on-year [1] - The board proposed a mid-term dividend of 0.2841 RMB per share (before tax), which is a 14.5% increase compared to the previous year, indicating a continuous enhancement in shareholder returns [1] - The connected communication business showed steady progress, with revenue of 131.9 billion RMB, a 0.4% year-on-year increase, and a user base exceeding 1.2 billion, with a net increase of over 11 million mobile and broadband users [1] Group 2 - The computing network intelligence business generated revenue of 45.4 billion RMB, growing by 4.3% year-on-year, and accounted for 26% of the main business revenue [2] - Cloud revenue reached 37.6 billion RMB, an 18.6% increase year-on-year, while data center revenue was 14.4 billion RMB, up 9.4% year-on-year [2] - The company has established partnerships with over 600 global operators and 1,000 industry partners, expanding its international market presence [2] Group 3 - Capital expenditure decreased by 15% year-on-year, indicating effective cost control, while the net cash flow from operating activities was 29.0 billion RMB, with free cash flow growing by 63.1% to 8.78 billion RMB [3] - The comprehensive gross profit margin improved by 0.5 percentage points, reflecting enhanced profitability [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 21.7 billion, 23.2 billion, and 25.1 billion RMB, corresponding to PE ratios of 13X, 12X, and 11X [3]