周度报告——股指期货 市场波动降低，仍需宏观加码 本周全球股市走修复逻辑，主要国家指数均涨超 2%。中国股市 也迎来修复。但行情有三方面超预期，一是修复力度偏弱，上 证指数周度涨幅仅 1.4%，单周未能收涨与 3900 点以上；二是市 场缩量，周五市场成交跌破 18000 亿元，抄底博弈的力量较弱； 三是微盘股涨幅较大，融资余额放量，表明部分投机性资金仍 较为活跃。总体来看，近期地缘因素仍具有较大不确定性，短 期内市场观望情绪较重也属于正常变化，本轮行情是流动性推 动的牛市，在流动性退坡之际，股指或将维持窄幅震荡。建议 关注 12 月即将召开的重磅会议。 ★风险提示： 经济基本面修复不及预期，海外地缘风险加剧。 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] 股指：震荡 | 王培丞 高级分析师（股指） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： 2025 年 11 月 30 日 | [Table_Analyser] 从业资格号： F03093911 [Table_Analyser] | | [★Ta一bl周e_复Su盘mm：aAry股] 修复偏弱 | 投资咨询号： Z0017305 | | 本周（11/24-11 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,831 points, down 145 points or 0.61% [1] - The US stock market saw all three major indices rise, with the Dow Jones up 1.43% and the S&P 500 up 0.91% [2] - The report highlights the importance of selecting undervalued sectors and companies in the current market environment [3] Key Sectors and Companies - The report emphasizes the potential of the technology sector, particularly in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and industrial software, as a core growth area for the Hong Kong market [3] - Companies in the central state-owned enterprises with lower valuations and higher dividends are recommended for investment [3] - The upstream non-ferrous metals sector is expected to benefit from anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and strong mid-term performance [3] Notable Company Performances - Alibaba reported a revenue of 247.8 billion yuan for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, exceeding market expectations, with a significant focus on AI investments [9] - Tencent has opened its mixed-precision OCR model, indicating advancements in AI technology [12] - Baidu's intelligent cloud is leading the establishment of the first national standard for intelligent cloud services, set to be implemented in February [12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively monitoring companies like China Unicom, which has shown growth in its digital services and R&D investments, with a target price of HKD 10.1 and a stop-loss price of HKD 8.3 [10] - The report also highlights the potential of companies in the aerospace sector, particularly those involved in commercial space development, as the industry is expected to grow significantly by 2027 [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Indexes are expected to stabilize in the short - term after recent declines. In the long - term, the policy supports the capital market, and technology growth remains the market's main line, suggesting a long - term strategy of buying on dips [4]. - The bond market in the fourth quarter may see an improved supply - demand pattern, but it will generally remain volatile, with attention paid to the linkage between stocks and bonds and liquidity [6]. - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has significantly increased, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [9]. - Most metals and non - metals in the non - ferrous sector are expected to show different trends of shock, strength, or weakness. For example, copper and aluminum prices may strengthen, while zinc and lead prices may be weak in the short - term [12][14][16][17]. - Steel demand has entered the off - season, and prices are likely to continue weak and volatile in the short - term, but may improve with policy implementation [32]. - Glass and soda ash prices are expected to remain volatile at the bottom and in a weak state respectively [36][37]. - For energy and chemical products, different strategies are recommended according to different product fundamentals, such as short - term waiting and long - short strategies [55][56][58]. - In the agricultural product sector, different strategies are proposed for different products, such as short - selling hogs and eggs at high prices and waiting for opportunities to close positions [77][79]. Summaries by Categories Macro - financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: The call between Chinese and US leaders was positive. The RMB appreciated. Alibaba's Q2 FY2026 revenue increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and its cloud business grew by 34%. A Fed official called for significant rate cuts [2]. - **Strategy**: After recent declines, the index may stabilize in the short - term. The long - term strategy is to buy on dips as policy supports the capital market and technology growth is the main line [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Bond futures had different changes on Tuesday. An official press conference on consumption policies will be held. The central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1054 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic data in October was weak, and the year - end social financing growth may remain weak. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the linkage between stocks and bonds and liquidity [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose. The Fed's dovish stance and potential changes in leadership supported precious metals. The inventory of silver on the SHFE increased slightly, but the supply of silver was still tight [7][8]. - **Strategy**: The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has increased, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. It is recommended to buy on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic spot premium declined. The import loss of domestic copper increased [11]. - **Strategy**: The probability of a Fed rate cut in December is over 80%. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the downstream start - up rate is strong. Copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices oscillated and declined. The global visible inventory of aluminum ingots is low, and the domestic inventory decreased [13]. - **Strategy**: The global visible inventory of aluminum ingots is low, and there are expectations of supply disruptions. Aluminum prices are expected to strengthen after adjustment [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices declined slightly. The import of zinc ore decreased significantly in October, and the social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly [15][16]. - **Strategy**: The supply of zinc ore is tight due to winter stockpiling, but it is expected to loosen after stockpiling. The zinc industry is in an over - supply cycle, and zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices declined. The supply of lead ingots increased, and the export of lead - acid batteries continued to decline. The domestic and overseas inventories increased [17]. - **Strategy**: The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and lead prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron continued to decline [18]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of nickel are under pressure, and prices are expected to be under pressure in the short - term. It is not recommended to chase short or bottom - fish [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose. The production of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi was stable at a high level, and the demand in emerging fields provided support. The social inventory increased [20]. - **Strategy**: The supply and demand of tin are in a tight balance in the short - term. Tin prices are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot price of carbonate lithium increased, and the futures price of LC2605 rose [22]. - **Strategy**: The upstream expects the supply - demand situation to improve in 2026, and the mid - stream has large long - term contracts. There are differences in the market. It is recommended to wait and see [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina decreased. The overseas ore price is expected to decline, and the domestic production capacity is over - supplied [24][26]. - **Strategy**: The overseas ore price is expected to decline, and the over - supply pattern of alumina is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rose slightly. The spot price increased, and the social inventory decreased slightly [27]. - **Strategy**: The spot market price increased slightly, but the demand in related fields is weak. Stainless steel prices are expected to be volatile [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded slightly. The inventory decreased slightly [28]. - **Strategy**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy provides strong support, and the supply is affected by policies. Prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils was high [31]. - **Strategy**: The demand for steel has entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains. Steel prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term, but may improve with policy implementation [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose slightly. The overseas shipment decreased, and the port inventory decreased slightly [33]. - **Strategy**: The supply of iron ore is strong, and the demand is stable. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile within a range [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices were stable, and the inventory increased slightly. Soda ash prices decreased, and the inventory decreased [35][37]. - **Strategy**: The cold - repair expectation of glass production lines in December is strong, and glass prices are expected to be volatile at the bottom. Soda ash is in an over - supply situation and is expected to be weak [36][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices rose slightly, and ferrosilicon prices decreased slightly. The market risk preference weakened, and the price of coking coal decreased [38][39]. - **Strategy**: The market risk preference has weakened, but there are expectations of a Fed rate cut. It is recommended to pay attention to the turning point of market sentiment. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector market, and the operability of ferrosilicon is low [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly, and polysilicon prices rose significantly. The production of industrial silicon decreased, and the production of polysilicon decreased [42][45]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to short - term fluctuations. Polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile within a wide range, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies and price feedback [43][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices unexpectedly declined. The export of natural rubber from Thailand increased in October. The tyre - factory start - up rate was weak [48][50]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to have a long - biased short - term trading strategy with a stop - loss and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices rose, and the prices of refined oil products decreased. The inventory of crude oil increased, and the inventory of refined oil products decreased [54]. - **Strategy**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices decreased slightly. The supply was at a relatively high level, and the demand changed little. The port inventory decreased [56]. - **Strategy**: The positive factors on the supply side are being realized, and the market is expected to bottom out. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices increased slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand improved. The enterprise inventory decreased [57][58]. - **Strategy**: Urea prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out. It is recommended to buy on dips at low prices [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure benzene was stable, and the price of styrene decreased. The supply of styrene was under pressure, and the demand improved [59]. - **Strategy**: The price of styrene may stop falling in the short - term due to the reduction of port inventory [60]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices decreased slightly. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The enterprise inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [61]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply of PVC is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [62]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices decreased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand increased. The port inventory was stable [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol is expected to be weak in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies [64]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices decreased slightly. The supply decreased, and the demand was stable. The processing fee increased [65]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the demand may be stable. The processing fee has limited upward space, and PXN has a risk of valuation correction [66]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices decreased slightly. The load of PX was high, and the load of PTA was low. The inventory increased [68]. - **Strategy**: PX is in a state of slight over - supply, and there is a risk of valuation correction [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices decreased slightly. The supply was stable, and the demand improved. The inventory decreased [70]. - **Strategy**: PE prices are expected to be low and volatile. The high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices decreased slightly. The supply was high, and the demand improved. The inventory decreased [72]. - **Strategy**: PP prices are in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high. The price may be supported in the first quarter of next year [73][74]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices continued to decline. The supply exceeded the demand, and the market demand increased slightly [76]. - **Strategy**: The supply of hogs is under pressure, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or conduct reverse spreads [77]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with a slight increase. The supply was stable, and the demand was in a stalemate [78]. - **Strategy**: The egg market is expected to be volatile in the short - term. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [79]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices were oscillating, and domestic soybean meal prices were stable. The global soybean supply - demand pattern has changed [80][81]. - **Strategy**: The import cost of soybeans has a bottom support, and soybean meal prices are expected to be oscillating [82]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic oils and fats decreased significantly. The export of Malaysian palm oil was weak, and the production increased [83]. - **Strategy**: The supply of palm oil is large, but the inventory may reverse. It is recommended to view it oscillatingly and turn to a long - biased strategy if production decreases [84]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices rebounded. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and the domestic import profit window is open [85][86]. - **Strategy**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies and close positions when the price falls [87]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices continued to rise. The downstream start - up rate was medium - weak, and the global cotton production increased [88]. - **Strategy**: The cotton market has no strong driving force in the short - term, and cotton prices are expected to be oscillating [89].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong financial performance for FY2025, with significant growth in both revenue and net profit, indicating robust operational health and effective management strategies [2][3]. Financial Performance - For FY2025, the company achieved a revenue of 996.347 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [2]. - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders for FY2025 was 129.470 billion yuan, showing a substantial increase of 62.4% year-on-year [2]. - In Q4 FY2025, the company recorded a revenue of 236.454 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [2]. - The net profit for Q4 FY2025 reached 12.382 billion yuan, marking an impressive growth of 278.7% year-on-year [2]. Core Business Performance - The company's core business segments performed well despite the divestment of non-core operations such as Yintai and Hema [3]. - The customer management revenue from Taotian Group in Q4 FY2025 grew by 11.8%, driven by an increase in the take rate and enhanced monetization of platform traffic [3]. - The Cloud Intelligence Group saw a revenue increase of 17.7% in Q4 FY2025, reaching 30.127 billion yuan, with external customer revenue growing by 17% [3]. - AI products maintained strong demand, with revenue from AI-related products achieving triple-digit year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters [3]. Shareholder Returns - In FY2025, the company repurchased 1.197 billion USD worth of shares, reducing the number of ordinary shares by 5.1% [4]. - The company declared a regular dividend of 1.05 USD per ADS and a special one-time cash dividend of 0.95 USD per ADS, enhancing shareholder returns [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group (9988.HK) [4][6] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of CNY 996.347 billion for FY2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, and a net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of CNY 129.470 billion, which is a 62.4% increase [1][4] - In Q4 FY2025, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 236.454 billion, up 6.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 12.382 billion, reflecting a significant growth of 278.7% [1][4] - The company has announced a special cash dividend of USD 0.95 per ADS alongside a regular dividend of USD 1.05 per ADS, enhancing shareholder returns [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY2025, the company achieved a non-GAAP net profit of CNY 158.122 billion, a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year [1][5] - The revenue growth rate for FY2025 was 5.86%, with projections for FY2026 and FY2027 at 11.56% and 6.71% respectively [5][10] - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders for FY2026 is projected to be CNY 135.647 billion, with a growth rate of 4.26% [5][10] Business Segments - The Taobao and Tmall Group saw a customer management revenue growth of 11.8% in Q4 FY2025, driven by an increase in take rate and the growth of the 88VIP membership program, which reached over 50 million members [2] - The Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue grew by 17.7% year-on-year to CNY 30.127 billion in Q4 FY2025, with strong demand for AI products, which have seen triple-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters [2] Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased 1.197 billion ordinary shares for USD 11.9 billion in FY2025, reducing the number of ordinary shares by 5.1% [3] - The total shareholder return strategy includes regular and special dividends, reflecting a commitment to enhancing shareholder value [3]

Core Insights - Alibaba Group reported a revenue of RMB 236.45 billion (USD 32.58 billion) for the quarter ending March 31, 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7% [1] - The operating profit for the same quarter was RMB 28.47 billion (USD 3.92 billion), showing a significant increase of 93% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders reached RMB 12.38 billion (USD 1.71 billion), marking a substantial growth of 279% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, total revenue was RMB 996.35 billion (USD 137.30 billion), reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [2] - Operating profit for the fiscal year was RMB 140.91 billion (USD 19.42 billion), which is a 24% increase compared to the previous year [2] - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders for the fiscal year was RMB 129.47 billion (USD 17.84 billion), up 62% year-on-year [2] Segment Performance - Taobao Group's customer management revenue grew by 6% to RMB 322.35 billion for the fiscal year, with a 12% increase in the fourth quarter to RMB 71.08 billion, driven by improved take rates and online GMV growth [3] - Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (AIDC) saw a total revenue increase of 29% to RMB 132.30 billion for the fiscal year, with a 22% growth in the fourth quarter to RMB 33.58 billion, supported by strong cross-border business performance [3] - The Cloud Intelligence Group reported a total revenue growth of 11% for the fiscal year, with an 18% increase in the fourth quarter, primarily driven by faster growth in public cloud business revenue [4] Strategic Focus - The CEO of Alibaba Group emphasized the effectiveness of the "user-first, AI-driven" strategy, noting that core business growth continues to accelerate, particularly in AI-related product adoption [4] - The CFO highlighted strong quarterly performance with a 7% year-on-year revenue growth and a 36% increase in overall EBITA, expressing confidence in the business outlook and commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [4]