1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry chain is facing high macro - uncertainty, and the market is seeking a direction. Each product in the chain has different supply - demand and cost situations, which will affect their prices. For example, crude oil prices may be strong first and then weak, PX prices are expected to be first up and then down, PTA may have a weak fundamental situation with a possible downward trend in absolute price, and ethylene glycol and polyester staple fiber prices may also fluctuate based on their supply - demand and cost conditions [4][16][49][94][137]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - In July 2025, the polyester industry chain was significantly affected by market sentiment, with prices rising first and then falling. In the first half of the month, prices were in a sideways shock due to limited supply - demand changes. In the second half, prices rose with the "anti - involution" sentiment and then declined at the end of the month [4]. 3.2 Crude Oil - In July 2025, crude oil prices were in a narrow - range shock due to the confrontation between production increase and peak demand. The price soared due to the expected sanctions on Russia. In August, supply is expected to continue to rise, demand may decline steadily, and prices may be strong first and then weak, with attention needed on tariff negotiations and US sanctions on Russia [9][16]. 3.3 PX - In July 2025, PX supply was stable with开工 around 80%. PX - Nap spread was strong. In August, supply will increase, but demand will also rise due to PTA's new capacity, and the spread will remain strong. PX is expected to continue de - stocking, and its price is predicted to be first up and then down, with an operation suggestion of range - band trading [29][43][49]. 3.4 PTA - In July 2025, PTA prices first decreased and then increased, with processing fees reaching a record low. In August, supply will increase due to new capacity, demand will remain stable, and PTA is expected to accumulate inventory. The price may decline under cost guidance, and it is recommended to short at high prices [51][65][94]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol - In July 2025, ethylene glycol prices were supported by low inventory and then rose due to cost and market sentiment, and fell at the end of the month. In August, supply will increase, demand will remain stable, and the inventory is expected to remain low. The price may decline under cost influence, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [97][115][137]. 3.6 Polyester Staple Fiber - In July 2025, polyester staple fiber had weak supply - demand, and its price followed the cost with a first - up - then - down trend. In 2025, the capacity expansion slowed down, and the production increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The processing fee fluctuated around the break - even line [140][146].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, different futures varieties have different trend judgments, including trend short, oscillating short - biased, oscillating, oscillating long - biased, and trend long [2]. - Based on quantitative indicators, different futures varieties are judged as short - biased, oscillating, or long - biased [5]. - For various futures varieties, corresponding trading strategies and trend analyses are provided, such as maintaining a long - term mindset for stock index futures, considering a steeper yield curve for bond futures, etc. [11][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - China - US trade relations have eased. The State Council Tariff Commission has adjusted the additional tariffs on imported goods from the US. International investment banks have raised their economic growth forecasts for China and the outlook for the Chinese stock market [7][8]. - The US 4 - month CPI was lower than expected, and Trump pressured the Fed to cut interest rates. Traders are betting on Fed rate cuts in September and October [7]. - India plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US, and the US and Saudi Arabia have reached a large - scale commercial agreement [8]. - The US House of Representatives is promoting a tax bill, and the US Treasury Secretary downplayed the possibility of a quick trade agreement with the EU [9]. Futures Varieties Analysis Stock Index Futures - Consider maintaining a long - term mindset and pay attention to possible style drifts. The market has digested the impact of the China - US joint statement, and the domestic economic fundamentals in Q2 are expected to be revised upwards [11]. Bond Futures - It may be better to consider a steeper yield curve for bonds, and it is advisable to remain moderately cautious. The inter - bank funds are loose, and the domestic economic fundamentals in Q2 are expected to be revised upwards [12]. Shipping (Container Shipping to Europe) - The focus of the market game is on whether the spot price will further decline and whether shipping companies will announce and implement price increases in June. The contract trend in the second half of the year is highly uncertain [13]. Cotton - Domestic cotton prices are under pressure to rebound at a low level. The actual orders and demand outlook are worrying, and the USDA supply - demand report is negative [13][14][15]. Sugar - Sugar prices are oscillating. There is uncertainty in making up the production - demand gap. The expected increase in supply restricts the upward space of sugar prices [16][17][18]. Oils and Oilseeds - Short palm oil and soybean meal at high prices. Palm oil is expected to be weak in the short term, and soybean meal is also expected to be weak [19][20]. Apples - Adopt a light - position positive spread strategy. The sitting - fruit situation varies by region, and the inventory is at a low level in the past 6 years [20]. Jujubes - Close short positions in batches and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area. The market supply is sufficient, and the futures price may oscillate at the bottom [20][21]. Pigs - The futures price is at a discount, and the long - short situation is stalemated. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand may decline [21]. Crude Oil - In the long - term, the oil price is expected to decline. In the short term, the rebound space is limited due to the easing of the trade war [22]. Fuel Oil - The price follows the rebound of crude oil, and it is necessary to evaluate the demand's ability to bear the increase in production [22]. Plastics - L and PP are expected to have a small - scale rebound in the short term due to improved market sentiment and increased export demand for downstream products [23]. Rubber - The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Pay attention to the digestion of macro and emotional factors [23]. Methanol - Adopt a short - term small - scale rebound strategy, but be cautious as the supply pressure is large [23]. Caustic Soda - The futures price is expected to oscillate under the influence of the macro market, and the spot price is showing signs of loosening [23]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash is expected to have limited downward space in the short term, and glass is expected to oscillate weakly [23][24]. Asphalt - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate around 3400, and the inventory is stable with price support [25]. Polyester Industry Chain - Consider buying at low prices, but pay attention to the possible postponement of maintenance when the price rises continuously [26]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The futures price may rebound after offsetting the short - term tariff impact, but the upward space is limited [27][28]. Pulp - The fundamentals are short - term oscillating. Pay attention to the inventory rhythm of raw materials and finished products [29]. Logs - The short - term is expected to oscillate. Consider buying out - of - the - money call options at low prices in the long - term [30]. Urea - The UR2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and a short - term short strategy can be adopted if it rises significantly [30]. Synthetic Rubber - The raw materials and finished products are oscillating strongly. Take profit when the price rises and buy again after the callback [31]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is advisable to buy at low prices. Alumina is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [32]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, maintain a short - term short strategy. For polysilicon, the 06 contract has limited upward space, and the 07 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [32]. Steel and Iron Ore - The short - term is expected to oscillate strongly, but the medium - and long - term is still weak. Pay attention to the cost support level [33][34][35]. Coking Coal and Coke - The short - term price fluctuates with macro policies, and the fundamentals remain unchanged. The price is in a downward channel [35][36][37]. Ferroalloys - Adopt a range - trading strategy without a clear trend [38].

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