Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market shows a trend of rising and then falling, with the stock index facing issues such as insufficient trading volume and weak short - term technical trends. The bond market is affected by factors like Vanke's bond default and new regulations on public fund sales, and is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. [9][10] - In the black metal market, steel and ore are expected to oscillate in the short - term and remain bearish in the medium - to - long - term. Coal and coke prices may continue their weak oscillation in the short - term. For ferroalloys, there are opportunities to go long on ferrosilicon and engage in the "long ferrosilicon, short manganese silicon" arbitrage. [12][14][15] - In the non - ferrous and new materials market, zinc and lead prices are in a downward oscillation trend, with suggestions to hold short positions cautiously. Lithium carbonate shows wide - range oscillations, while industrial silicon and polysilicon continue to oscillate. [19][20][22] - In the agricultural products market, cotton oscillates and rebounds, sugar is under pressure but with cost support, eggs are expected to oscillate, apples are expected to be slightly bullish, and corn, dates, and live pigs have their own market characteristics and trends. [27][28][31] - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil is in a long - term downward trend, fuel oil follows oil price fluctuations, plastics are in a weak oscillation, and other energy and chemical products also have their own market outlooks. [40][41][43] Summaries by Directory Macro News - The State Council executive meeting chaired by Premier Li Qiang discussed multiple important matters, including promoting high - quality development, medical insurance, and relevant regulations. Vanke's stocks and bonds declined sharply. China and Malaysia communicated on the "Malaysia - US Equivalent Trade Agreement". The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade will organize a business delegation to visit the US in early December. From January to October, the national industrial enterprise profits increased year - on - year, but decreased in October. The NDRC studied price - related work. Putin stated that the US delegation will visit Moscow, and the ECB strengthened the expectation of the end of the interest - rate cut cycle. [6][7] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt an oscillation strategy and temporarily wait and see. The A - share market rose and then fell, with issues such as insufficient trading volume. The selection of the Fed chairman is in the final stage. The short - term decline may lead to a rebound, but the market's anti - fragility is insufficient. [9] Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market is affected by Vanke's bond default and new regulations on public fund sales. The current capital situation is generally loose, and the bond market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. [10] Black Metal Steel and Ore - In terms of policy, pay attention to the impact of the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference on the macro - expectations of the market next year. On the fundamental side, the demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is good. The supply side may see a decline in molten iron production, and the inventory is still at a high level compared to last year. The valuation of iron ore is relatively strong, and steel prices are likely to remain weak. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is bearish. [11][12] Coal and Coke - Prices may continue their weak oscillation in the short - term. Pay attention to the impact of coal mine production, safety supervision, and changes in molten iron production. [14] Ferroalloys - The ferrosilicon market has opportunities to go long in the medium - to - long - term, and pay attention to the "long ferrosilicon, short manganese silicon" arbitrage. In the short - term, pay attention to the impact of electricity settlement in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia on the market. [15] Non - ferrous and New Materials Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory has decreased. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels or take profits temporarily and operate cyclically. The zinc price is in a downward oscillation trend with the possibility of a phased rebound. [19] Lead - The domestic lead inventory has decreased, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously. The lead price has a slight rebound, and the import lead trading activity is not high. [20][21] Lithium Carbonate - The short - term trend is in wide - range oscillations, with a game between short - term bearishness and long - term optimism. The recent demand shows signs of weakening, but the long - term demand is still promising. [22] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon has limited downward adjustment space and continues to oscillate. Polysilicon also continues to oscillate, and it is necessary to be cautious when chasing long positions. [23] Agricultural Products Cotton - Affected by factors such as large supply pressure and weak demand, it oscillates and rebounds. The USDA report is bearish, and the domestic supply pressure remains. The valuation of Zhengzhou cotton futures is lower than the spot price, supporting its rebound. [27][28] Sugar - The domestic and international sugar markets are under pressure from supply surplus, but cost support limits the decline. It is recommended to wait and see. [28][29] Eggs - The inventory of laying hens is high, and consumption has not improved significantly. The spot price is expected to be weak. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to short at high levels with proper position control. [31] Apples - The apple market is expected to be slightly bullish. The apple storage is nearly finished, and the出库 has started. The inventory is lower than last year, and attention should be paid to consumption dynamics. [33] Corn - Pay attention to the upper pressure on the futures price. The current price increase is due to "supply - demand mismatch", and the spot price may回调, but the decline space is limited. [35] Dates - It is recommended to wait and see. The prices in production and sales areas are stable at a low level, and the futures price is weak. [36][37] Live Pigs - In the short - term, the supply pressure increases, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to short at high levels for near - month contracts. In the long - term, the decline in the number of breeding sows is beneficial to future pig prices. [38] Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - The oil price is in a long - term downward trend, affected by factors such as EIA inventory accumulation and geopolitical negotiations. It is recommended to short at high levels. [40] Fuel Oil - It follows the oil price fluctuations. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the impact of sanctions on Russia and the OPEC+ meeting. [41] Plastics - The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to adopt a weak - oscillation strategy. [43] Rubber - It is recommended to take profits appropriately for the ru - nr spread. It is short - term bullish due to weather factors, and it is necessary to be cautious when chasing high prices. [44] Synthetic Rubber - It may still have downward space. It is recommended to short at high levels. The restart of maintenance devices at the end of the month and in December may put further pressure on the price. [45] Methanol - The near - month and far - month contracts are recommended to adopt an oscillation strategy. If the inventory reduction is smooth, a slightly long - position configuration can be considered. [46] Caustic Soda - The spot price is weak, and it is recommended to adopt an oscillation strategy. [47] Asphalt - The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the price bottom after the winter storage game. [48] Polyester Industry Chain - It is expected to continue the oscillation adjustment in the short - term, affected by factors such as the decline in blending oil sentiment and weakening terminal demand. [50] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - It may turn from strong to weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is limited. The weakening of oil prices may accelerate its decline. [50] Pulp - The fundamentals are stable, and it is expected to enter an oscillation stage. It is recommended to wait and see. [51] Logs - The fundamentals are weakly bearish, and the price is under pressure. The inventory is expected to increase, and the market is in the off - season. [52] Urea - The现货 price may oscillate strongly, and the futures market may have short - term emotional trading. It is recommended to adopt a wide - range oscillation strategy. [53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry chain is facing high macro - uncertainty, and the market is seeking a direction. Each product in the chain has different supply - demand and cost situations, which will affect their prices. For example, crude oil prices may be strong first and then weak, PX prices are expected to be first up and then down, PTA may have a weak fundamental situation with a possible downward trend in absolute price, and ethylene glycol and polyester staple fiber prices may also fluctuate based on their supply - demand and cost conditions [4][16][49][94][137]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - In July 2025, the polyester industry chain was significantly affected by market sentiment, with prices rising first and then falling. In the first half of the month, prices were in a sideways shock due to limited supply - demand changes. In the second half, prices rose with the "anti - involution" sentiment and then declined at the end of the month [4]. 3.2 Crude Oil - In July 2025, crude oil prices were in a narrow - range shock due to the confrontation between production increase and peak demand. The price soared due to the expected sanctions on Russia. In August, supply is expected to continue to rise, demand may decline steadily, and prices may be strong first and then weak, with attention needed on tariff negotiations and US sanctions on Russia [9][16]. 3.3 PX - In July 2025, PX supply was stable with开工 around 80%. PX - Nap spread was strong. In August, supply will increase, but demand will also rise due to PTA's new capacity, and the spread will remain strong. PX is expected to continue de - stocking, and its price is predicted to be first up and then down, with an operation suggestion of range - band trading [29][43][49]. 3.4 PTA - In July 2025, PTA prices first decreased and then increased, with processing fees reaching a record low. In August, supply will increase due to new capacity, demand will remain stable, and PTA is expected to accumulate inventory. The price may decline under cost guidance, and it is recommended to short at high prices [51][65][94]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol - In July 2025, ethylene glycol prices were supported by low inventory and then rose due to cost and market sentiment, and fell at the end of the month. In August, supply will increase, demand will remain stable, and the inventory is expected to remain low. The price may decline under cost influence, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [97][115][137]. 3.6 Polyester Staple Fiber - In July 2025, polyester staple fiber had weak supply - demand, and its price followed the cost with a first - up - then - down trend. In 2025, the capacity expansion slowed down, and the production increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The processing fee fluctuated around the break - even line [140][146].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, different futures varieties have different trend judgments, including trend short, oscillating short - biased, oscillating, oscillating long - biased, and trend long [2]. - Based on quantitative indicators, different futures varieties are judged as short - biased, oscillating, or long - biased [5]. - For various futures varieties, corresponding trading strategies and trend analyses are provided, such as maintaining a long - term mindset for stock index futures, considering a steeper yield curve for bond futures, etc. [11][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - China - US trade relations have eased. The State Council Tariff Commission has adjusted the additional tariffs on imported goods from the US. International investment banks have raised their economic growth forecasts for China and the outlook for the Chinese stock market [7][8]. - The US 4 - month CPI was lower than expected, and Trump pressured the Fed to cut interest rates. Traders are betting on Fed rate cuts in September and October [7]. - India plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US, and the US and Saudi Arabia have reached a large - scale commercial agreement [8]. - The US House of Representatives is promoting a tax bill, and the US Treasury Secretary downplayed the possibility of a quick trade agreement with the EU [9]. Futures Varieties Analysis Stock Index Futures - Consider maintaining a long - term mindset and pay attention to possible style drifts. The market has digested the impact of the China - US joint statement, and the domestic economic fundamentals in Q2 are expected to be revised upwards [11]. Bond Futures - It may be better to consider a steeper yield curve for bonds, and it is advisable to remain moderately cautious. The inter - bank funds are loose, and the domestic economic fundamentals in Q2 are expected to be revised upwards [12]. Shipping (Container Shipping to Europe) - The focus of the market game is on whether the spot price will further decline and whether shipping companies will announce and implement price increases in June. The contract trend in the second half of the year is highly uncertain [13]. Cotton - Domestic cotton prices are under pressure to rebound at a low level. The actual orders and demand outlook are worrying, and the USDA supply - demand report is negative [13][14][15]. Sugar - Sugar prices are oscillating. There is uncertainty in making up the production - demand gap. The expected increase in supply restricts the upward space of sugar prices [16][17][18]. Oils and Oilseeds - Short palm oil and soybean meal at high prices. Palm oil is expected to be weak in the short term, and soybean meal is also expected to be weak [19][20]. Apples - Adopt a light - position positive spread strategy. The sitting - fruit situation varies by region, and the inventory is at a low level in the past 6 years [20]. Jujubes - Close short positions in batches and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area. The market supply is sufficient, and the futures price may oscillate at the bottom [20][21]. Pigs - The futures price is at a discount, and the long - short situation is stalemated. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand may decline [21]. Crude Oil - In the long - term, the oil price is expected to decline. In the short term, the rebound space is limited due to the easing of the trade war [22]. Fuel Oil - The price follows the rebound of crude oil, and it is necessary to evaluate the demand's ability to bear the increase in production [22]. Plastics - L and PP are expected to have a small - scale rebound in the short term due to improved market sentiment and increased export demand for downstream products [23]. Rubber - The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Pay attention to the digestion of macro and emotional factors [23]. Methanol - Adopt a short - term small - scale rebound strategy, but be cautious as the supply pressure is large [23]. Caustic Soda - The futures price is expected to oscillate under the influence of the macro market, and the spot price is showing signs of loosening [23]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash is expected to have limited downward space in the short term, and glass is expected to oscillate weakly [23][24]. Asphalt - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate around 3400, and the inventory is stable with price support [25]. Polyester Industry Chain - Consider buying at low prices, but pay attention to the possible postponement of maintenance when the price rises continuously [26]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The futures price may rebound after offsetting the short - term tariff impact, but the upward space is limited [27][28]. Pulp - The fundamentals are short - term oscillating. Pay attention to the inventory rhythm of raw materials and finished products [29]. Logs - The short - term is expected to oscillate. Consider buying out - of - the - money call options at low prices in the long - term [30]. Urea - The UR2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and a short - term short strategy can be adopted if it rises significantly [30]. Synthetic Rubber - The raw materials and finished products are oscillating strongly. Take profit when the price rises and buy again after the callback [31]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is advisable to buy at low prices. Alumina is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [32]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, maintain a short - term short strategy. For polysilicon, the 06 contract has limited upward space, and the 07 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [32]. Steel and Iron Ore - The short - term is expected to oscillate strongly, but the medium - and long - term is still weak. Pay attention to the cost support level [33][34][35]. Coking Coal and Coke - The short - term price fluctuates with macro policies, and the fundamentals remain unchanged. The price is in a downward channel [35][36][37]. Ferroalloys - Adopt a range - trading strategy without a clear trend [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market trading logic will shift from policy - based game to fundamentals after the policy - based game ends. For example, in the stock index futures and bond futures markets, the market will focus more on the actual economic situation and capital flow [10][12]. - Different commodities have different trends and investment suggestions. For instance, it is recommended to short palm oil and soybean meal at high prices; have a bearish view on eggs; use a light - position long - spread strategy for apples; and take profit on short positions of jujubes in batches [17][18][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - China and Russia deepen their comprehensive strategic partnership, and the two leaders sign a joint statement [7]. - The US and the UK reach a tariff trade agreement, and the US reduces tariffs on UK cars, steel, and aluminum. They also plan to start digital trade agreement negotiations [7]. - Four major first - tier cities in China lower the provident fund loan interest rate, and Chengdu proposes a new provident fund policy [7]. - In April, China's passenger car market retail sales reached 1.791 million, a year - on - year increase of 17%, and new energy vehicle retail sales were 922,000, a year - on - year increase of 37%. The inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers was 59.8%, a month - on - month increase of 5.2 percentage points [8]. - The EU announces a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods and sues the US at the WTO [8]. - The US starts the legislative work on a huge tax - cut plan, and the number of initial and continued jobless claims in the US last week decreased [8]. - Tensions between India and Pakistan intensify, causing the Pakistani stock market to plunge [9]. - Institutions and enterprises rush to issue science and technology innovation bonds, with a total issuance scale of 21 billion yuan and a registration scale of 18 billion yuan as of May 8 [9]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to pay attention to resistance levels and market performance after the release of macro data. After the central bank's policy announcement, the main indexes showed a pattern of opening high and closing low, and there was large - scale capital inflow into the Shanghai 50 ETF at the end of the session [10]. 3.3 Bond Futures - The strategy is to consider short - bond arbitrage and steepen the yield curve. After the central bank's policy announcement, the bond market shows a trend of short - bond confidence recovery and yield curve steepening [11][12]. 3.4 Container Shipping to Europe - The market is pessimistic about the freight rates in May and June. The 08 contract has limited upside potential due to the lack of upward drivers. The focus is on the peak - season performance, and the market is waiting for the inflection point of cargo volume [13]. 3.5 Cotton - Domestic cotton prices are running weakly at a low level due to concerns about actual orders and demand. The international cotton price is affected by factors such as a stronger US dollar and poor export data. The future trend depends on macro - situation changes, US cotton planting, and export conditions [14]. 3.6 Sugar - The sugar price shows a volatile trend. Internationally, the supply from Brazil is expected to increase, while India's production is expected to recover. Domestically, the supply is relatively loose in the short term, but the uncertainty of import supply affects the sugar price [15][16]. 3.7 Oils and Oilseeds - It is recommended to short palm oil and soybean meal at high prices. Palm oil is under pressure due to the expected increase in production in the producing areas, and soybean meal is affected by the recovery of domestic oil mill operating rates [17]. 3.8 Eggs - The spot price of eggs is weak, and the supply pressure is expected to increase in the future. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view on egg futures [18][19]. 3.9 Apples - It is recommended to use a light - position long - spread strategy. The current situation of apple setting in the western producing areas varies, and the inventory in the producing areas is at a low level in the past six years, with the possibility of price increases [20]. 3.10 Jujubes - It is recommended to take profit on short positions in batches and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the producing areas. The market is currently in a range - bound state, and the growth of jujube trees in Xinjiang is good [20]. 3.11 Crude Oil - In the long term, the oil price has a downward expectation due to OPEC+ production increase and economic recession concerns. In the short term, there is a certain rebound expectation due to factors such as the possible easing of the Sino - US trade war [21]. 3.12 Fuel Oil - The fuel oil price follows the crude oil price rebound, and the market is affected by factors such as the peak power - generation demand in the Middle East and weak shipping [22]. 3.13 Plastics - It is recommended to have a bearish view on L and PP. The long - term supply - demand pattern is weak, and the cost support is declining [23][24]. 3.14 Rubber - The short - term supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is possible to go long with a light position on pullbacks and set a stop - loss [25]. 3.15 Methanol - It is recommended to maintain a bearish view. The downstream demand is expected to decrease, and the long - term demand situation is not good [25]. 3.16 Caustic Soda - The near - month contract is expected to strengthen, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate. The spot price is strong due to supply decline and demand increase [26]. 3.17 Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, the supply is expected to improve marginally in May, and the price decline space is limited, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand pattern is loose. For glass, the demand expectation is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate or decline slightly [27][28]. 3.18 Asphalt - The asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate around 3400, and the price is supported by inventory. The upper pressure comes from the oil price [29]. 3.19 Polyester Industry Chain - In the short term, polyester products are expected to remain at a relatively high level, but the upside space is limited. In the medium term, it is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities [30]. 3.20 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The medium - term trend of LPG is affected by crude oil. Although the long - term price center is expected to decline, the domestic PG is stronger than crude oil due to the Sino - US trade war [31]. 3.21 Pulp - The supply - demand situation has no obvious contradiction, and the market is in a pattern of weak demand and high inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - sentiment [31][32]. 3.22 Logs - The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the short term and buy out - of - the - money call options at low prices in the long term [33]. 3.23 Urea - Moderate export is likely, but the policy does not allow a significant increase in the domestic urea price. The international urea price is expected to decline, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [34]. 3.24 Aluminum and Alumina - For aluminum, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low prices appropriately. For alumina, the price is expected to continue to decline weakly and wait for the ore price to stabilize [35]. 3.25 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, a bearish view is maintained before the actual supply reduction in the wet season. For polysilicon, the 06 contract has limited upside space, and the 07 contract is expected to decline weakly [36][37]. 3.26 Steel and Iron Ore - The short - term steel price is expected to fluctuate, and the medium - and long - term trend is expected to be weak due to factors such as Sino - US tariffs and weak demand [37]. 3.27 Coking Coal and Coke - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have not changed substantially, and they are in a downward channel. There is no condition for going long without large - scale production cuts or a decline in Mongolian coal imports [38]. 3.28 Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, it is recommended to go long intraday. For silicomanganese, it is recommended to take profit on the sold 06 - contract put options [38].