腾讯：广告业务在AI赋能背景下继续保持快速增长水平，同时游戏出海为重要增量。2025年该行观察 到腾讯海外游戏明显加速，国内持续输出优质工业级别生产力支持，与海外工作室合作进一步加深，同 时伴随AI对手游出海投放渠道的改善，26年腾讯国际游戏增长或为重要看点。 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，展望2026年，需重点关注互联网巨头出海业务的进展，AI发 展趋势下，国内云厂商和游戏厂商面临出海增长的好机遇，叠加国产优质供应链升级，电商平台出海也 为补充内需疲软的重要增长方向。 国信证券主要观点如下： 复盘历史，港股很难脱离美元流动性和宏观因素 历年Q4恒生科技指数和恒生指数表现相对疲软，次年的Q1/Q2又会经历修复。因此当前港股市场承压， 主要也与流动性和宏观经济悲观预期相关。此外，2025年美团、阿里和京东三家巨头开启的外卖大战， 在2026年或进入到投入边际收缩的阶段，对三家平台的现金流和利润均为重要影响变量。 阿里：AI全栈自研厂商，26年重点关注。1）千问模型占据全球模型市场份额持续提升，开源社区积累 驱动阿里云出海增长；2）AI端侧与苹果合作落地后续云业务增量；3）下游Agent、应用放量带来的 ...

Macro and Strategy - The U.S. non-farm employment data for October and November indicates a lukewarm job market, suggesting that conditions for interest rate cuts are not yet ripe. November saw an increase of 64,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, above the anticipated 4.4% [7]. Industry and Company - Recent regulatory policies on fund management are expected to have a long-term impact on the market, emphasizing a tool-oriented approach and potentially increasing style competition in the short term. The new regulations aim to enhance the quality of public fund management, linking the performance assessment of fund managers and sales personnel to investor interests [7]. - Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) is leveraging its overseas cloud and gaming businesses, with AI integration driving new growth engines. The company has expanded its cloud infrastructure globally, covering 22 regions, and is focusing on SaaS and PaaS services, particularly in Asia and the Middle East [8][9]. - Tencent's overseas gaming revenue is projected to reach 75.7 billion RMB in 2025, accounting for 32% of its total gaming revenue, driven by its industrialization capabilities and strategic acquisitions [9]. - Salesforce (CRM.N) reported a revenue of $10.26 billion for Q3 2025, a 9% year-on-year increase, driven by strong performance in its AI-driven products. The company also saw a significant rise in its remaining performance obligations, reaching $29.4 billion, indicating robust future revenue potential [11][12]. Financial Engineering - The market sentiment appears to be stabilizing, with a narrowing of the discount on major contracts. As of December 17, 2025, the annualized discount rates for various index futures are as follows: IH at 0.29%, IF at 3.74%, IC at 4.69%, and IM at 9.94% [14][16]. - The dividend yield for the CSI 300 index stands at 2.11%, with a remaining yield of 0.16%, indicating a focus on dividend-paying stocks in the current market environment [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [2][5]. Core Insights - The ban by Anthropic on Chinese-controlled entities from using its Claude services has accelerated the domestic AI replacement process, with local companies like Zhipu quickly launching migration solutions using models such as GLM-4.5 [4][5]. - The loss of Claude services is expected to push Chinese enterprises to adopt domestic alternatives more rapidly, reshaping the market landscape and potentially strengthening the rise of domestic large models and their applications [5]. - The report highlights significant revenue loss for Anthropic, estimated at "hundreds of millions" due to the ban, affecting major Chinese internet companies that rely on Claude services for their innovative and international applications [5]. Summary by Sections - **Investment Highlights**: The report emphasizes the urgency for companies like ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba to migrate their services away from Claude, as their innovative business segments depend on it. New AI projects may face product iteration stagnation due to the ban [5]. - **Market Dynamics**: The domestic AI landscape is shifting towards self-sufficiency, with accelerated efforts in computing power and chip localization. Domestic manufacturers are ramping up self-research initiatives despite performance gaps compared to international leaders [5]. - **Model Replacement**: The report notes that domestic models such as Zhipu GLM, Alibaba Qwen, and emerging players like DeepSeek are quickly gaining traction in various sectors, taking advantage of the "replacement window" created by the ban [5][6].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses various industries including technology, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and internet sectors, highlighting their performance and trends in 2025 [1][2][3][4][6][31]. Core Insights and Arguments General Market Performance - In Q2 2025, A-share market revenue growth was 0.24% and profit growth was 1.3%, nearly flat compared to the previous year [3]. - The defense and electronics sectors showed strong performance, with the electronics sector achieving a revenue growth of 20% [3]. Technology and Manufacturing Trends - Key trends in technology and manufacturing include "going global" and "innovation," with significant contributions from overseas business [1][6]. - The semiconductor sector is experiencing structural changes due to domestic production and product innovation, with companies like Ecovacs showing potential [1][9]. - The A-share semiconductor sector is diverging from the US market, with domestic computing companies seeing rapid growth [1][7]. Internet Sector Dynamics - The internet sector is focusing on instant retail and subsidy strategies, with AI chips becoming a new focal point [1][10]. - Companies like Tencent and Alibaba are showing strong performance in their overseas markets, with Tencent's overseas gaming revenue growing over 70% [10][11]. Pharmaceutical Sector Recovery - The pharmaceutical sector's profit growth has turned positive, indicating a recovery after several years of decline [2][31]. - Internationalization is progressing, with domestic products gaining recognition in overseas markets [32]. New Consumption vs. Traditional Consumption - New consumption companies are outperforming traditional ones due to innovation and exploring new categories and channels [25][26]. - The strongest category currently is IP, which shows significant growth potential [27]. Important but Overlooked Content - The disparity in performance among companies within the same sector is notable, with some companies exceeding expectations while others struggle [6][9]. - The impact of AI technology on various internet businesses is significant, with advertising and gaming sectors showing notable growth due to enhanced data understanding and algorithm optimization [11][12][17]. - The manufacturing sector is seeing a clear trend towards exports, with companies like BYD and CATL reporting substantial overseas revenue growth [19][20][21]. Future Outlook - The outlook for the semiconductor sector includes potential changes in Nvidia's market dynamics due to new demand on the inference side [9]. - The internet sector is expected to continue evolving with AI technology influencing advertising and gaming revenues [14][18]. - The pharmaceutical industry is anticipated to see significant developments in clinical data and BD activities in the upcoming quarters, which will be crucial for its growth [34][36]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment is that various sectors, particularly those with strong overseas business and innovative capabilities, are well-positioned for future growth, reflecting a broader trend of globalization and technological advancement in the Chinese market [38][39].